Matching Items (3)
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- All Subjects: Economics, Finance
- All Subjects: Low physical activity behavioral interventions
- Creators: Tsakalis, Konstantinos S
Description
One necessary condition for the two-pass risk premium estimator to be consistent and asymptotically normal is that the rank of the beta matrix in a proposed linear asset pricing model is full column. I first investigate the asymptotic properties of the risk premium estimators and the related t-test and Wald test statistics when the full rank condition fails. I show that the beta risk of useless factors or multiple proxy factors for a true factor are priced more often than they should be at the nominal size in the asset pricing models omitting some true factors. While under the null hypothesis that the risk premiums of the true factors are equal to zero, the beta risk of the true factors are priced less often than the nominal size. The simulation results are consistent with the theoretical findings. Hence, the factor selection in a proposed factor model should not be made solely based on their estimated risk premiums. In response to this problem, I propose an alternative estimation of the underlying factor structure. Specifically, I propose to use the linear combination of factors weighted by the eigenvectors of the inner product of estimated beta matrix. I further propose a new method to estimate the rank of the beta matrix in a factor model. For this method, the idiosyncratic components of asset returns are allowed to be correlated both over different cross-sectional units and over different time periods. The estimator I propose is easy to use because it is computed with the eigenvalues of the inner product of an estimated beta matrix. Simulation results show that the proposed method works well even in small samples. The analysis of US individual stock returns suggests that there are six common risk factors in US individual stock returns among the thirteen factor candidates used. The analysis of portfolio returns reveals that the estimated number of common factors changes depending on how the portfolios are constructed. The number of risk sources found from the analysis of portfolio returns is generally smaller than the number found in individual stock returns.
ContributorsWang, Na (Author) / Ahn, Seung C. (Thesis advisor) / Kallberg, Jarl G. (Committee member) / Liu, Crocker H. (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2011
Description
Behavioral health problems such as physical inactivity are among the main causes of mortality around the world. Mobile and wireless health (mHealth) interventions offer the opportunity for applying control engineering concepts in behavioral change settings. Social Cognitive Theory (SCT) is among the most influential theories of health behavior and has been used as the conceptual basis of many behavioral interventions. This dissertation examines adaptive behavioral interventions for physical inactivity problems based on SCT using system identification and control engineering principles. First, a dynamical model of SCT using fluid analogies is developed. The model is used throughout the dissertation to evaluate system identification approaches and to develop control strategies based on Hybrid Model Predictive Control (HMPC). An initial system identification informative experiment is designed to obtain basic insights about the system. Based on the informative experimental results, a second optimized experiment is developed as the solution of a formal constrained optimization problem. The concept of Identification Test Monitoring (ITM) is developed for determining experimental duration and adjustments to the input signals in real time. ITM relies on deterministic signals, such as multisines, and uncertainty regions resulting from frequency domain transfer function estimation that is performed during experimental execution. ITM is motivated by practical considerations in behavioral interventions; however, a generalized approach is presented for broad-based multivariable application settings such as process control. Stopping criteria for the experimental test utilizing ITM are developed using both open-loop and robust control considerations.
A closed-loop intensively adaptive intervention for physical activity is proposed relying on a controller formulation based on HMPC. The discrete and logical features of HMPC naturally address the categorical nature of the intervention components that include behavioral goals and reward points. The intervention incorporates online controller reconfiguration to manage the transition between the behavioral initiation and maintenance training stages. Simulation results are presented to illustrate the performance of the system using a model for a hypothetical participant under realistic conditions that include uncertainty. The contributions of this dissertation can ultimately impact novel applications of cyberphysical system in medical applications.
A closed-loop intensively adaptive intervention for physical activity is proposed relying on a controller formulation based on HMPC. The discrete and logical features of HMPC naturally address the categorical nature of the intervention components that include behavioral goals and reward points. The intervention incorporates online controller reconfiguration to manage the transition between the behavioral initiation and maintenance training stages. Simulation results are presented to illustrate the performance of the system using a model for a hypothetical participant under realistic conditions that include uncertainty. The contributions of this dissertation can ultimately impact novel applications of cyberphysical system in medical applications.
ContributorsMartín Moreno, César Antonio (Author) / Rivera, Daniel E (Thesis advisor) / Hekler, Eric B. (Committee member) / Peet, Matthew M (Committee member) / Tsakalis, Konstantinos S (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2016
Description
A systematic top down approach to minimize risk and maximize the profits of an investment over a given period of time is proposed. Macroeconomic factors such as Gross Domestic Product (GDP), Consumer Price Index (CPI), Outstanding Consumer Credit, Industrial Production Index, Money Supply (MS), Unemployment Rate, and Ten-Year Treasury are used to predict/estimate asset (sector ETF`s) returns. Fundamental ratios of individual stocks are used to predict the stock returns. An a priori known cash-flow sequence is assumed available for investment. Given the importance of sector performance on stock performance, sector based Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) for the S&P; and Dow Jones are considered and wealth is allocated. Mean variance optimization with risk and return constraints are used to distribute the wealth in individual sectors among the selected stocks. The results presented should be viewed as providing an outer control/decision loop generating sector target allocations that will ultimately drive an inner control/decision loop focusing on stock selection. Receding horizon control (RHC) ideas are exploited to pose and solve two relevant constrained optimization problems. First, the classic problem of wealth maximization subject to risk constraints (as measured by a metric on the covariance matrices) is considered. Special consideration is given to an optimization problem that attempts to minimize the peak risk over the prediction horizon, while trying to track a wealth objective. It is concluded that this approach may be particularly beneficial during downturns - appreciably limiting downside during downturns while providing most of the upside during upturns. Investment in stocks during upturns and in sector ETF`s during downturns is profitable.
ContributorsChitturi, Divakar (Author) / Rodriguez, Armando (Thesis advisor) / Tsakalis, Konstantinos S (Committee member) / Si, Jennie (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2010