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The main objective of this research is to develop an integrated method to study emergent behavior and consequences of evolution and adaptation in engineered complex adaptive systems (ECASs). A multi-layer conceptual framework and modeling approach including behavioral and structural aspects is provided to describe the structure of a class of

The main objective of this research is to develop an integrated method to study emergent behavior and consequences of evolution and adaptation in engineered complex adaptive systems (ECASs). A multi-layer conceptual framework and modeling approach including behavioral and structural aspects is provided to describe the structure of a class of engineered complex systems and predict their future adaptive patterns. The approach allows the examination of complexity in the structure and the behavior of components as a result of their connections and in relation to their environment. This research describes and uses the major differences of natural complex adaptive systems (CASs) with artificial/engineered CASs to build a framework and platform for ECAS. While this framework focuses on the critical factors of an engineered system, it also enables one to synthetically employ engineering and mathematical models to analyze and measure complexity in such systems. In this way concepts of complex systems science are adapted to management science and system of systems engineering. In particular an integrated consumer-based optimization and agent-based modeling (ABM) platform is presented that enables managers to predict and partially control patterns of behaviors in ECASs. Demonstrated on the U.S. electricity markets, ABM is integrated with normative and subjective decision behavior recommended by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) and Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC). The approach integrates social networks, social science, complexity theory, and diffusion theory. Furthermore, it has unique and significant contribution in exploring and representing concrete managerial insights for ECASs and offering new optimized actions and modeling paradigms in agent-based simulation.
ContributorsHaghnevis, Moeed (Author) / Askin, Ronald G. (Thesis advisor) / Armbruster, Dieter (Thesis advisor) / Mirchandani, Pitu (Committee member) / Wu, Tong (Committee member) / Hedman, Kory (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2013
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Description
Under the framework of intelligent management of power grids by leveraging advanced information, communication and control technologies, a primary objective of this study is to develop novel data mining and data processing schemes for several critical applications that can enhance the reliability of power systems. Specifically, this study is broadly

Under the framework of intelligent management of power grids by leveraging advanced information, communication and control technologies, a primary objective of this study is to develop novel data mining and data processing schemes for several critical applications that can enhance the reliability of power systems. Specifically, this study is broadly organized into the following two parts: I) spatio-temporal wind power analysis for wind generation forecast and integration, and II) data mining and information fusion of synchrophasor measurements toward secure power grids. Part I is centered around wind power generation forecast and integration. First, a spatio-temporal analysis approach for short-term wind farm generation forecasting is proposed. Specifically, using extensive measurement data from an actual wind farm, the probability distribution and the level crossing rate of wind farm generation are characterized using tools from graphical learning and time-series analysis. Built on these spatial and temporal characterizations, finite state Markov chain models are developed, and a point forecast of wind farm generation is derived using the Markov chains. Then, multi-timescale scheduling and dispatch with stochastic wind generation and opportunistic demand response is investigated. Part II focuses on incorporating the emerging synchrophasor technology into the security assessment and the post-disturbance fault diagnosis of power systems. First, a data-mining framework is developed for on-line dynamic security assessment by using adaptive ensemble decision tree learning of real-time synchrophasor measurements. Under this framework, novel on-line dynamic security assessment schemes are devised, aiming to handle various factors (including variations of operating conditions, forced system topology change, and loss of critical synchrophasor measurements) that can have significant impact on the performance of conventional data-mining based on-line DSA schemes. Then, in the context of post-disturbance analysis, fault detection and localization of line outage is investigated using a dependency graph approach. It is shown that a dependency graph for voltage phase angles can be built according to the interconnection structure of power system, and line outage events can be detected and localized through networked data fusion of the synchrophasor measurements collected from multiple locations of power grids. Along a more practical avenue, a decentralized networked data fusion scheme is proposed for efficient fault detection and localization.
ContributorsHe, Miao (Author) / Zhang, Junshan (Thesis advisor) / Vittal, Vijay (Thesis advisor) / Hedman, Kory (Committee member) / Si, Jennie (Committee member) / Ye, Jieping (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2013
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Description
The past few decades have seen a consistent growth of distributed PV sources. Distributed PV, like other DG sources, can be located at or near load centers and provide benefits which traditional generation may lack. However, distribution systems were not designed to accommodate such power generation sources as these sources

The past few decades have seen a consistent growth of distributed PV sources. Distributed PV, like other DG sources, can be located at or near load centers and provide benefits which traditional generation may lack. However, distribution systems were not designed to accommodate such power generation sources as these sources might lead to operational as well as power quality issues. A high penetration of distributed PV resources may lead to bi-directional power flow resulting in voltage swells, increased losses and overloading of conductors. Voltage unbalance is a concern in distribution systems and the effect of single-phase residential PV systems on voltage unbalance needs to be explored. Furthermore, the islanding of DGs presents a technical hurdle towards the seamless integration of DG sources with the electricity grid. The work done in this thesis explores two important aspects of grid inte-gration of distributed PV generation, namely, the impact on power quality and anti-islanding. A test distribution system, representing a realistic distribution feeder in Arizona is modeled to study both the aforementioned aspects. The im-pact of distributed PV on voltage profile, voltage unbalance and distribution sys-tem primary losses are studied using CYMDIST. Furthermore, a PSCAD model of the inverter with anti-island controls is developed and the efficacy of the anti-islanding techniques is studied. Based on the simulations, generalized conclusions are drawn and the problems/benefits are elucidated.
ContributorsMitra, Parag (Author) / Heydt, Gerald T (Thesis advisor) / Vittal, Vijay (Thesis advisor) / Ayyanar, Raja (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2013
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Description
The electric power system is one of the largest, most complicated, and most important cyber-physical systems in the world. The link between the cyber and physical level is the Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition (SCADA) systems and Energy Management Systems (EMS). Their functions include monitoring the real-time system operation

The electric power system is one of the largest, most complicated, and most important cyber-physical systems in the world. The link between the cyber and physical level is the Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition (SCADA) systems and Energy Management Systems (EMS). Their functions include monitoring the real-time system operation through state estimation (SE), controlling the system to operate reliably, and optimizing the system operation efficiency. The SCADA acquires the noisy measurements, such as voltage angle and magnitude, line power flows, and line current magnitude, from the remote terminal units (RTUs). These raw data are firstly sent to the SE, which filters all the noisy data and derives the best estimate of the system state. Then the estimated states are used for other EMS functions, such as contingency analysis, optimal power flow, etc.

In the existing state estimation process, there is no defense mechanism for any malicious attacks. Once the communication channel between the SCADA and RTUs is hijacked by the attacker, the attacker can perform a man-in-middle attack and send data of its choice. The only step that can possibly detect the attack during the state estimation process is the bad data detector. Unfortunately, even the bad data detector is unable to detect a certain type of attack, known as the false data injection (FDI) attacks.

Diagnosing the physical consequences of such attacks, therefore, is very important to understand system stability. In this thesis, theoretical general attack models for AC and DC attacks are given and an optimization problem for the worst-case overload attack is formulated. Furthermore, physical consequences of FDI attacks, based on both DC and AC model, are addressed. Various scenarios with different attack targets and system configurations are simulated. The details of the research, results obtained and conclusions drawn are presented in this document.
ContributorsLiang, Jingwen (Author) / Sankar, Lalitha (Thesis advisor) / Kosut, Oliver (Thesis advisor) / Hedman, Kory (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2015
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Description
There has been a considerable growth in distributed photovoltaic (PV) genera-tion and its integration in electric power distribution systems. This has led to a change in the distribution system infrastructure. Properly planned distributed gen-eration can offer a variety of benefits for system operations and enhance opera-tional performance of the distribution

There has been a considerable growth in distributed photovoltaic (PV) genera-tion and its integration in electric power distribution systems. This has led to a change in the distribution system infrastructure. Properly planned distributed gen-eration can offer a variety of benefits for system operations and enhance opera-tional performance of the distribution system. However, high penetration of PV resources can give rise to operating conditions which do not arise in traditional systems and one of the potential issues that needs to be addressed involves impact on power quality of the system with respect to the spectral distortion in voltages and currents.

The test bed feeder model representing a real operational distribution feeder is developed in OpenDSS and the feeder modeling takes into consideration the ob-jective of analysis and frequency of interest. Extensive metering infrastructure and measurements are utilized for validation of the model at harmonic frequencies. The harmonic study performed is divided into two sections: study of impact of non-linear loads on total harmonic voltage and current distortions and study of impact of PV resources on high frequency spectral distortion in voltages and cur-rents. The research work incorporates different harmonic study methodologies such as harmonic and high frequency power flow, and frequency scan study. The general conclusions are presented based on the simulation results and in addition, scope for future work is discussed.
ContributorsJoshi, Titiksha Vjay (Author) / Heydt, Gerald T (Thesis advisor) / Ayyanar, Raja (Committee member) / Vittal, Vijay (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2014
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Description
This thesis addresses the issue of making an economic case for bulk energy storage in the Arizona bulk power system. Pumped hydro energy storage (PHES) is used in this study. Bulk energy storage has often been suggested for large scale electric power systems in order to levelize load (store energy

This thesis addresses the issue of making an economic case for bulk energy storage in the Arizona bulk power system. Pumped hydro energy storage (PHES) is used in this study. Bulk energy storage has often been suggested for large scale electric power systems in order to levelize load (store energy when it is inexpensive [energy demand is low] and discharge energy when it is expensive [energy demand is high]). It also has the potential to provide opportunities to avoid transmission and generation expansion, and provide for generation reserve margins. As the level of renewable energy resources increases, the uncertainty and variability of wind and solar resources may be improved by bulk energy storage technologies.

For this study, the MATLab software platform is used, a mathematical based modeling language, optimization solvers (specifically Gurobi), and a power flow solver (PowerWorld) are used to simulate an economic dispatch problem that includes energy storage and transmission losses. A program is created which utilizes quadratic programming to analyze various cases using a 2010 summer peak load from the Arizona portion of the Western Electricity Coordinating Council (WECC) system. Actual data from industry are used in this test bed. In this thesis, the full capabilities of Gurobi are not utilized (e.g., integer variables, binary variables). However, the formulation shown here does create a platform such that future, more sophisticated modeling may readily be incorporated.

The developed software is used to assess the Arizona test bed with a low level of energy storage to study how the storage power limit effects several optimization outputs such as the system wide operating costs. Large levels of energy storage are then added to see how high level energy storage affects peak shaving, load factor, and other system applications. Finally, various constraint relaxations are made to analyze why the applications tested eventually approach a constant value. This research illustrates the use of energy storage which helps minimize the system wide generator operating cost by "shaving" energy off of the peak demand.

The thesis builds on the work of another recent researcher with the objectives of strengthening the assumptions used, checking the solutions obtained, utilizing higher level simulation languages to affirm results, and expanding the results and conclusions.

One important point not fully discussed in the present thesis is the impact of efficiency in the pumped hydro cycle. The efficiency of the cycle for modern units is estimated at higher than 90%. Inclusion of pumped hydro losses is relegated to future work.
ContributorsDixon, William Jesse J (Author) / Heydt, Gerald T (Thesis advisor) / Hedman, Kory W (Committee member) / Karady, George G. (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2014
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Description
Electric power systems are facing great challenges from environmental regulations, changes in demand due to new technologies like electric vehicle, as well as the integration of various renewable energy sources. These factors taken together require the development of new tools to help make policy and investment decisions for the future

Electric power systems are facing great challenges from environmental regulations, changes in demand due to new technologies like electric vehicle, as well as the integration of various renewable energy sources. These factors taken together require the development of new tools to help make policy and investment decisions for the future power grid. The requirements of a network equivalent to be used in such planning tools are very different from those assumed in the development of traditional equivalencing procedures. This dissertation is focused on the development, implementation and verification of two network equivalencing approaches on large power systems, such as the Eastern Interconnection. Traditional Ward-type equivalences are a class of equivalencing approaches but this class has some significant drawbacks. It is well known that Ward-type equivalents "smear" the injections of external generators over a large number of boundary buses. For newer long-term investment applications that take into account such things as greenhouse gas (GHG) regulations and generator availability, it is computationally impractical to model fractions of generators located at many buses. A modified-Ward equivalent is proposed to address this limitation such that the external generators are moved wholesale to some internal buses based on electrical distance. This proposed equivalencing procedure is designed so that the retained-line power flows in the equivalent match those in the unreduced (full) model exactly. During the reduction process, accommodations for special system elements are addressed, including static VAr compensators (SVCs), high voltage dc (HVDC) transmission lines, and phase angle regulators. Another network equivalencing approach based on the dc power flow assumptions and the power transfer distribution factors (PTDFs) is proposed. This method, rather than eliminate buses via Gauss-reduction, aggregates buses on a zonal basis. The bus aggregation approach proposed here is superior to the existing bus aggregation methods in that a) under the base case, the equivalent-system inter-zonal power flows exactly match those calculated using the full-network-model b) as the operating conditions change, errors in line flows are reduced using the proposed bus clustering algorithm c) this method is computationally more efficient than other bus aggregation methods proposed heretofore. A critical step in achieving accuracy with a bus aggregation approach is selecting which buses to cluster together and how many clusters are needed. Clustering in this context refers to the process of partitioning a network into subsets of buses. An efficient network clustering method is proposed based on the PTDFs and the data mining techniques. This method is applied to the EI topology using the "Saguaro" supercomputer at ASU, a resource with sufficient memory and computational capability for handling this 60,000-bus and 80,000-branch system. The network equivalents generated by the proposed approaches are verified and tested for different operating conditions and promising results have been observed.
ContributorsShi, Di (Author) / Tylavsky, Daniel J (Thesis advisor) / Vittal, Vijay (Committee member) / Hedman, Kory (Committee member) / Ayyanar, Raja (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2012
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Description
The large distributed electric power system is a hierarchical network involving the

transportation of power from the sources of power generation via an intermediate

densely connected transmission network to a large distribution network of end-users

at the lowest level of the hierarchy. At each level of the hierarchy (generation/ trans-

mission/ distribution), the system

The large distributed electric power system is a hierarchical network involving the

transportation of power from the sources of power generation via an intermediate

densely connected transmission network to a large distribution network of end-users

at the lowest level of the hierarchy. At each level of the hierarchy (generation/ trans-

mission/ distribution), the system is managed and monitored with a combination of

(a) supervisory control and data acquisition (SCADA); and (b) energy management

systems (EMSs) that process the collected data and make control and actuation de-

cisions using the collected data. However, at all levels of the hierarchy, both SCADA

and EMSs are vulnerable to cyber attacks. Furthermore, given the criticality of the

electric power infrastructure, cyber attacks can have severe economic and social con-

sequences.

This thesis focuses on cyber attacks on SCADA and EMS at the transmission

level of the electric power system. The goal is to study the consequences of three

classes of cyber attacks that can change topology data. These classes include: (i)

unobservable state-preserving cyber attacks that only change the topology data; (ii)

unobservable state-and-topology cyber-physical attacks that change both states and

topology data to enable a coordinated physical and cyber attack; and (iii) topology-

targeted man-in-the-middle (MitM) communication attacks that alter topology data

shared during inter-EMS communication. Specically, attack class (i) and (ii) focus on

the unobservable attacks on single regional EMS while class (iii) focuses on the MitM

attacks on communication links between regional EMSs. For each class of attacks,

the theoretical attack model and the implementation of attacks are provided, and the

worst-case attack and its consequences are exhaustively studied. In particularly, for

class (ii), a two-stage optimization problem is introduced to study worst-case attacks

that can cause a physical line over

ow that is unobservable in the cyber layer. The long-term implication and the system anomalies are demonstrated via simulation.

For attack classes (i) and (ii), both mathematical and experimental analyses sug-

gest that these unobservable attacks can be limited or even detected with resiliency

mechanisms including load monitoring, anomalous re-dispatches checking, and his-

torical data comparison. For attack class (iii), countermeasures including anomalous

tie-line interchange verication, anomalous re-dispatch alarms, and external contin-

gency lists sharing are needed to thwart such attacks.
ContributorsZhang, Jiazi (Author) / Sankar, Lalitha (Thesis advisor) / Hedman, Kory (Committee member) / Kosut, Oliver (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2015
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Description
As the world embraces a sustainable energy future, alternative energy resources, such as wind power, are increasingly being seen as an integral part of the future electric energy grid. Ultimately, integrating such a dynamic and variable mix of generation requires a better understanding of renewable generation output, in addition to

As the world embraces a sustainable energy future, alternative energy resources, such as wind power, are increasingly being seen as an integral part of the future electric energy grid. Ultimately, integrating such a dynamic and variable mix of generation requires a better understanding of renewable generation output, in addition to power grid systems that improve power system operational performance in the presence of anticipated events such as wind power ramps. Because of the stochastic, uncontrollable nature of renewable resources, a thorough and accurate characterization of wind activity is necessary to maintain grid stability and reliability. Wind power ramps from an existing wind farm are studied to characterize persistence forecasting errors using extreme value analysis techniques. In addition, a novel metric that quantifies the amount of non-stationarity in time series wind power data was proposed and used in a real-time algorithm to provide a rigorous method that adaptively determines training data for forecasts. Lastly, large swings in generation or load can cause system frequency and tie-line flows to deviate from nominal, so an anticipatory MPC-based secondary control scheme was designed and integrated into an automatic generation control loop to improve the ability of an interconnection to respond to anticipated large events and fluctuations in the power system.
ContributorsGanger, David (Author) / Vittal, Vijay (Thesis advisor) / Zhang, Junshan (Thesis advisor) / Hedman, Kory (Committee member) / Undrill, John (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2016
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Description
The past decades have seen a significant shift in the expectations and requirements re-lated to power system analysis tools. Investigations into major power grid disturbances have suggested the need for more comprehensive assessment methods. Accordingly, sig-nificant research in recent years has focused on the development of better power system models

The past decades have seen a significant shift in the expectations and requirements re-lated to power system analysis tools. Investigations into major power grid disturbances have suggested the need for more comprehensive assessment methods. Accordingly, sig-nificant research in recent years has focused on the development of better power system models and efficient techniques for analyzing power system operability. The work done in this report focusses on two such topics

1. Analysis of load model parameter uncertainty and sensitivity based pa-rameter estimation for power system studies

2. A systematic approach to n-1-1 analysis for power system security as-sessment

To assess the effect of load model parameter uncertainty, a trajectory sensitivity based approach is proposed in this work. Trajectory sensitivity analysis provides a sys-tematic approach to study the impact of parameter uncertainty on power system re-sponse to disturbances. Furthermore, the non-smooth nature of the composite load model presents some additional challenges to sensitivity analysis in a realistic power system. Accordingly, the impact of the non-smooth nature of load models on the sensitivity analysis is addressed in this work. The study was performed using the Western Electrici-ty Coordinating Council (WECC) system model. To address the issue of load model pa-rameter estimation, a sensitivity based load model parameter estimation technique is presented in this work. A detailed discussion on utilizing sensitivities to improve the ac-curacy and efficiency of the parameter estimation process is also presented in this work.

Cascading outages can have a catastrophic impact on power systems. As such, the NERC transmission planning (TPL) standards requires utilities to plan for n¬-1-1 out-ages. However, such analyses can be computationally burdensome for any realistic pow-er system owing to the staggering number of possible n-1-1 contingencies. To address this problem, the report proposes a systematic approach to analyze n-1-1 contingencies in a computationally tractable manner for power system security assessment. The pro-posed approach addresses both static and dynamic security assessment. The proposed methods have been tested on the WECC system.
ContributorsMitra, Parag (Author) / Vittal, Vijay (Thesis advisor) / Heydt, Gerald T (Committee member) / Ayyanar, Raja (Committee member) / Qin, Jiangchao (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2016