Matching Items (17)
Filtering by
- Genre: Doctoral Dissertation
Description
The main objective of this research is to develop an integrated method to study emergent behavior and consequences of evolution and adaptation in engineered complex adaptive systems (ECASs). A multi-layer conceptual framework and modeling approach including behavioral and structural aspects is provided to describe the structure of a class of engineered complex systems and predict their future adaptive patterns. The approach allows the examination of complexity in the structure and the behavior of components as a result of their connections and in relation to their environment. This research describes and uses the major differences of natural complex adaptive systems (CASs) with artificial/engineered CASs to build a framework and platform for ECAS. While this framework focuses on the critical factors of an engineered system, it also enables one to synthetically employ engineering and mathematical models to analyze and measure complexity in such systems. In this way concepts of complex systems science are adapted to management science and system of systems engineering. In particular an integrated consumer-based optimization and agent-based modeling (ABM) platform is presented that enables managers to predict and partially control patterns of behaviors in ECASs. Demonstrated on the U.S. electricity markets, ABM is integrated with normative and subjective decision behavior recommended by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) and Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC). The approach integrates social networks, social science, complexity theory, and diffusion theory. Furthermore, it has unique and significant contribution in exploring and representing concrete managerial insights for ECASs and offering new optimized actions and modeling paradigms in agent-based simulation.
ContributorsHaghnevis, Moeed (Author) / Askin, Ronald G. (Thesis advisor) / Armbruster, Dieter (Thesis advisor) / Mirchandani, Pitu (Committee member) / Wu, Tong (Committee member) / Hedman, Kory (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2013
Description
Under the framework of intelligent management of power grids by leveraging advanced information, communication and control technologies, a primary objective of this study is to develop novel data mining and data processing schemes for several critical applications that can enhance the reliability of power systems. Specifically, this study is broadly organized into the following two parts: I) spatio-temporal wind power analysis for wind generation forecast and integration, and II) data mining and information fusion of synchrophasor measurements toward secure power grids. Part I is centered around wind power generation forecast and integration. First, a spatio-temporal analysis approach for short-term wind farm generation forecasting is proposed. Specifically, using extensive measurement data from an actual wind farm, the probability distribution and the level crossing rate of wind farm generation are characterized using tools from graphical learning and time-series analysis. Built on these spatial and temporal characterizations, finite state Markov chain models are developed, and a point forecast of wind farm generation is derived using the Markov chains. Then, multi-timescale scheduling and dispatch with stochastic wind generation and opportunistic demand response is investigated. Part II focuses on incorporating the emerging synchrophasor technology into the security assessment and the post-disturbance fault diagnosis of power systems. First, a data-mining framework is developed for on-line dynamic security assessment by using adaptive ensemble decision tree learning of real-time synchrophasor measurements. Under this framework, novel on-line dynamic security assessment schemes are devised, aiming to handle various factors (including variations of operating conditions, forced system topology change, and loss of critical synchrophasor measurements) that can have significant impact on the performance of conventional data-mining based on-line DSA schemes. Then, in the context of post-disturbance analysis, fault detection and localization of line outage is investigated using a dependency graph approach. It is shown that a dependency graph for voltage phase angles can be built according to the interconnection structure of power system, and line outage events can be detected and localized through networked data fusion of the synchrophasor measurements collected from multiple locations of power grids. Along a more practical avenue, a decentralized networked data fusion scheme is proposed for efficient fault detection and localization.
ContributorsHe, Miao (Author) / Zhang, Junshan (Thesis advisor) / Vittal, Vijay (Thesis advisor) / Hedman, Kory (Committee member) / Si, Jennie (Committee member) / Ye, Jieping (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2013
Description
A principal goal of this dissertation is to study stochastic optimization and real-time scheduling in cyber-physical systems (CPSs) ranging from real-time wireless systems to energy systems to distributed control systems. Under this common theme, this dissertation can be broadly organized into three parts based on the system environments. The first part investigates stochastic optimization in real-time wireless systems, with the focus on the deadline-aware scheduling for real-time traffic. The optimal solution to such scheduling problems requires to explicitly taking into account the coupling in the deadline-aware transmissions and stochastic characteristics of the traffic, which involves a dynamic program that is traditionally known to be intractable or computationally expensive to implement. First, real-time scheduling with adaptive network coding over memoryless channels is studied, and a polynomial-time complexity algorithm is developed to characterize the optimal real-time scheduling. Then, real-time scheduling over Markovian channels is investigated, where channel conditions are time-varying and online channel learning is necessary, and the optimal scheduling policies in different traffic regimes are studied. The second part focuses on the stochastic optimization and real-time scheduling involved in energy systems. First, risk-aware scheduling and dispatch for plug-in electric vehicles (EVs) are studied, aiming to jointly optimize the EV charging cost and the risk of the load mismatch between the forecasted and the actual EV loads, due to the random driving activities of EVs. Then, the integration of wind generation at high penetration levels into bulk power grids is considered. Joint optimization of economic dispatch and interruptible load management is investigated using short-term wind farm generation forecast. The third part studies stochastic optimization in distributed control systems under different network environments. First, distributed spectrum access in cognitive radio networks is investigated by using pricing approach, where primary users (PUs) sell the temporarily unused spectrum and secondary users compete via random access for such spectrum opportunities. The optimal pricing strategy for PUs and the corresponding distributed implementation of spectrum access control are developed to maximize the PU's revenue. Then, a systematic study of the nonconvex utility-based power control problem is presented under the physical interference model in ad-hoc networks. Distributed power control schemes are devised to maximize the system utility, by leveraging the extended duality theory and simulated annealing.
ContributorsYang, Lei (Author) / Zhang, Junshan (Thesis advisor) / Tepedelenlioğlu, Cihan (Committee member) / Xue, Guoliang (Committee member) / Ying, Lei (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2012
Description
This dissertation examines the nexus of three trends in electricity systems transformations underway worldwide—the scale-up of renewable energy, regionalization, and liberalization. Interdependent electricity systems are being envisioned that require partnership and integration across power disparities. This research explores how actors in the Mediterranean region envisioned a massive scale-up of renewable energy within a single electricity system and market across Europe, North Africa, and the Middle East. It asks: How are regional sociotechnical systems envisioned? What are the anticipated consequences of a system for a region with broad disparities and deep sociopolitical differences? What can be learned about energy justice by examining this vision at multiple scales? A sociotechnical systems framework is used to analyze energy transformations, interweaving the technical aspects with politics, societal effects, and political development issues. This research utilized mixed qualitative methods to analyze Mediterranean electricity transformations at multiple scales, including fieldwork in Morocco and Germany, document analysis, and event ethnography. Each scale—from a global history of concentrating solar power technologies to a small village in Morocco—provides a different lens on the sociotechnical system and its implications for justice. This study updates Thomas Hughes’ Networks of Power, the canonical history of the sociotechnical development of electricity systems, by adding new aspects to sociotechnical electricity systems theory. First, a visioning process now plays a crucial role in guiding innovation and has a lasting influence on the justice outcomes. Second, rather than simply providing people with heat and light, electrical power systems in the 21st century are called upon to address complex integrated solutions. Furthermore, building a sustainable energy system is now a retrofitting agenda, as system builders must graft new infrastructure on top of old systems. Third, the spatial and temporal aspects of sociotechnical energy systems should be amended to account for constructed geography and temporal complexity. Fourth, transnational electricity systems pose new challenges for politics and political development. Finally, this dissertation presents a normative framework for conceptualizing and evaluating energy justice. Multi-scalar, systems-level justice requires collating diverse ideas about energy justice, expanding upon them based on the empirical material, and evaluating them with this framework.
ContributorsMoore, Sharlissa (Author) / Hackett, Ed J. (Thesis advisor) / Minteer, Ben (Committee member) / Parmentier, Mary Jane (Committee member) / Wetmore, Jameson (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2015
Description
Contemporary methods for dynamic security assessment (DSA) mainly re-ly on time domain simulations to explore the influence of large disturbances in a power system. These methods are computationally intensive especially when the system operating point changes continually. The trajectory sensitivity method, when implemented and utilized as a complement to the existing DSA time domain simulation routine, can provide valuable insights into the system variation in re-sponse to system parameter changes. The implementation of the trajectory sensitivity analysis is based on an open source power system analysis toolbox called PSAT. Eight categories of sen-sitivity elements have been implemented and tested. The accuracy assessment of the implementation demonstrates the validity of both the theory and the imple-mentation. The computational burden introduced by the additional sensitivity equa-tions is relieved by two innovative methods: one is by employing a cluster to per-form the sensitivity calculations in parallel; the other one is by developing a mod-ified very dishonest Newton method in conjunction with the latest sparse matrix processing technology. The relation between the linear approximation accuracy and the perturba-tion size is also studied numerically. It is found that there is a fixed connection between the linear approximation accuracy and the perturbation size. Therefore this finding can serve as a general application guide to evaluate the accuracy of the linear approximation. The applicability of the trajectory sensitivity approach to a large realistic network has been demonstrated in detail. This research work applies the trajectory sensitivity analysis method to the Western Electricity Coordinating Council (WECC) system. Several typical power system dynamic security problems, in-cluding the transient angle stability problem, the voltage stability problem consid-ering load modeling uncertainty and the transient stability constrained interface real power flow limit calculation, have been addressed. Besides, a method based on the trajectory sensitivity approach and the model predictive control has been developed for determination of under frequency load shedding strategy for real time stability assessment. These applications have shown the great efficacy and accuracy of the trajectory sensitivity method in handling these traditional power system stability problems.
ContributorsHou, Guanji (Author) / Vittal, Vijay (Thesis advisor) / Heydt, Gerald (Committee member) / Tylavsky, Daniel (Committee member) / Si, Jennie (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2012
Description
Photovoltaic (PV) power generation has the potential to cause a significant impact on power system reliability since its total installed capacity is projected to increase at a significant rate. PV generation can be described as an intermittent and variable resource because its production is influenced by ever-changing environmental conditions. The study in this dissertation focuses on the influence of PV generation on trans-mission system reliability. This is a concern because PV generation output is integrated into present power systems at various voltage levels and may significantly affect the power flow patterns. This dissertation applies a probabilistic power flow (PPF) algorithm to evaluate the influence of PV generation uncertainty on transmission system perfor-mance. A cumulant-based PPF algorithm suitable for large systems is used. Correlation among adjacent PV resources is considered. Three types of approximation expansions based on cumulants namely Gram-Charlier expansion, Edgeworth expansion and Cor-nish-Fisher expansion are compared, and their properties, advantages and deficiencies are discussed. Additionally, a novel probabilistic model of PV generation is developed to obtain the probability density function (PDF) of the PV generation production based on environmental conditions. Besides, this dissertation proposes a novel PPF algorithm considering the conven-tional generation dispatching operation to balance PV generation uncertainties. It is pru-dent to include generation dispatch in the PPF algorithm since the dispatching strategy compensates for PV generation injections and influences the uncertainty results. Fur-thermore, this dissertation also proposes a probabilistic optimal power dispatching strat-egy which considers uncertainty problems in the economic dispatch and optimizes the expected value of the total cost with the overload probability as a constraint. The proposed PPF algorithm with the three expansions is compared with Monte Carlo simulations (MCS) with results for a 2497-bus representation of the Arizona area of the Western Electricity Coordinating Council (WECC) system. The PDFs of the bus voltages, line flows and slack bus production are computed, and are used to identify the confidence interval, the over limit probability and the expected over limit time of the ob-jective variables. The proposed algorithm is of significant relevance to the operating and planning studies of the transmission systems with PV generation installed.
ContributorsFan, Miao (Author) / Vittal, Vijay (Thesis advisor) / Heydt, Gerald Thomas (Committee member) / Ayyanar, Raja (Committee member) / Si, Jennie (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2012
Description
In electric power systems, phasor measurement units (PMUs) are capable of providing synchronized voltage and current phasor measurements which are superior to conventional measurements collected by the supervisory control and data acquisition (SCADA) system in terms of resolution and accuracy. These measurements are known as synchrophasor measurements. Considerable research work has been done on the applications of PMU measurements based on the as-sumption that a high level of accuracy is obtained in the field. The study in this dissertation is conducted to address the basic issue concerning the accuracy of actual PMU measurements in the field. Synchronization is one of the important features of PMU measurements. However, the study presented in this dissertation reveals that the problem of faulty synchronization between measurements with the same time stamps from different PMUs exists. A Kalman filter model is proposed to analyze and calcu-late the time skew error caused by faulty synchronization. In order to achieve a high level of accuracy of PMU measurements, inno-vative methods are proposed to detect and identify system state changes or bad data which are reflected by changes in the measurements. This procedure is ap-plied as a key step in adaptive Kalman filtering of PMU measurements to over-come the insensitivity of a conventional Kalman filter. Calibration of PMU measurements is implemented in specific PMU instal-lation scenarios using transmission line (TL) parameters from operation planning data. The voltage and current correction factors calculated from the calibration procedure indicate the possible errors in PMU measurements. Correction factors can be applied in on-line calibration of PMU measurements. A study is conducted to address an important issue when integrating PMU measurements into state estimation. The reporting rate of PMU measurements is much higher than that of the measurements collected by the SCADA. The ques-tion of how to buffer PMU measurements is raised. The impact of PMU meas-urement buffer length on state estimation is discussed. A method based on hy-pothesis testing is proposed to determine the optimal buffer length of PMU meas-urements considering the two conflicting features of PMU measurements, i. e. un-certainty and variability. Results are presented for actual PMU synchrophasor measurements.
ContributorsZhang, Qing (Author) / Heydt, Gerald (Thesis advisor) / Vittal, Vijay (Thesis advisor) / Ayyanar, Raja (Committee member) / Si, Jennie (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2012
Description
Electric power systems are facing great challenges from environmental regulations, changes in demand due to new technologies like electric vehicle, as well as the integration of various renewable energy sources. These factors taken together require the development of new tools to help make policy and investment decisions for the future power grid. The requirements of a network equivalent to be used in such planning tools are very different from those assumed in the development of traditional equivalencing procedures. This dissertation is focused on the development, implementation and verification of two network equivalencing approaches on large power systems, such as the Eastern Interconnection. Traditional Ward-type equivalences are a class of equivalencing approaches but this class has some significant drawbacks. It is well known that Ward-type equivalents "smear" the injections of external generators over a large number of boundary buses. For newer long-term investment applications that take into account such things as greenhouse gas (GHG) regulations and generator availability, it is computationally impractical to model fractions of generators located at many buses. A modified-Ward equivalent is proposed to address this limitation such that the external generators are moved wholesale to some internal buses based on electrical distance. This proposed equivalencing procedure is designed so that the retained-line power flows in the equivalent match those in the unreduced (full) model exactly. During the reduction process, accommodations for special system elements are addressed, including static VAr compensators (SVCs), high voltage dc (HVDC) transmission lines, and phase angle regulators. Another network equivalencing approach based on the dc power flow assumptions and the power transfer distribution factors (PTDFs) is proposed. This method, rather than eliminate buses via Gauss-reduction, aggregates buses on a zonal basis. The bus aggregation approach proposed here is superior to the existing bus aggregation methods in that a) under the base case, the equivalent-system inter-zonal power flows exactly match those calculated using the full-network-model b) as the operating conditions change, errors in line flows are reduced using the proposed bus clustering algorithm c) this method is computationally more efficient than other bus aggregation methods proposed heretofore. A critical step in achieving accuracy with a bus aggregation approach is selecting which buses to cluster together and how many clusters are needed. Clustering in this context refers to the process of partitioning a network into subsets of buses. An efficient network clustering method is proposed based on the PTDFs and the data mining techniques. This method is applied to the EI topology using the "Saguaro" supercomputer at ASU, a resource with sufficient memory and computational capability for handling this 60,000-bus and 80,000-branch system. The network equivalents generated by the proposed approaches are verified and tested for different operating conditions and promising results have been observed.
ContributorsShi, Di (Author) / Tylavsky, Daniel J (Thesis advisor) / Vittal, Vijay (Committee member) / Hedman, Kory (Committee member) / Ayyanar, Raja (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2012
Description
Resilience is emerging as the preferred way to improve the protection of infrastructure systems beyond established risk management practices. Massive damages experienced during tragedies like Hurricane Katrina showed that risk analysis is incapable to prevent unforeseen infrastructure failures and shifted expert focus towards resilience to absorb and recover from adverse events. Recent, exponential growth in research is now producing consensus on how to think about infrastructure resilience centered on definitions and models from influential organizations like the US National Academy of Sciences. Despite widespread efforts, massive infrastructure failures in 2017 demonstrate that resilience is still not working, raising the question: Are the ways people think about resilience producing resilient infrastructure systems?
This dissertation argues that established thinking harbors misconceptions about infrastructure systems that diminish attempts to improve their resilience. Widespread efforts based on the current canon focus on improving data analytics, establishing resilience goals, reducing failure probabilities, and measuring cascading losses. Unfortunately, none of these pursuits change the resilience of an infrastructure system, because none of them result in knowledge about how data is used, goals are set, or failures occur. Through the examination of each misconception, this dissertation results in practical, new approaches for infrastructure systems to respond to unforeseen failures via sensing, adapting, and anticipating processes. Specifically, infrastructure resilience is improved by sensing when data analytics include the modeler-in-the-loop, adapting to stress contexts by switching between multiple resilience strategies, and anticipating crisis coordination activities prior to experiencing a failure.
Overall, results demonstrate that current resilience thinking needs to change because it does not differentiate resilience from risk. The majority of research thinks resilience is a property that a system has, like a noun, when resilience is really an action a system does, like a verb. Treating resilience as a noun only strengthens commitment to risk-based practices that do not protect infrastructure from unknown events. Instead, switching to thinking about resilience as a verb overcomes prevalent misconceptions about data, goals, systems, and failures, and may bring a necessary, radical change to the way infrastructure is protected in the future.
This dissertation argues that established thinking harbors misconceptions about infrastructure systems that diminish attempts to improve their resilience. Widespread efforts based on the current canon focus on improving data analytics, establishing resilience goals, reducing failure probabilities, and measuring cascading losses. Unfortunately, none of these pursuits change the resilience of an infrastructure system, because none of them result in knowledge about how data is used, goals are set, or failures occur. Through the examination of each misconception, this dissertation results in practical, new approaches for infrastructure systems to respond to unforeseen failures via sensing, adapting, and anticipating processes. Specifically, infrastructure resilience is improved by sensing when data analytics include the modeler-in-the-loop, adapting to stress contexts by switching between multiple resilience strategies, and anticipating crisis coordination activities prior to experiencing a failure.
Overall, results demonstrate that current resilience thinking needs to change because it does not differentiate resilience from risk. The majority of research thinks resilience is a property that a system has, like a noun, when resilience is really an action a system does, like a verb. Treating resilience as a noun only strengthens commitment to risk-based practices that do not protect infrastructure from unknown events. Instead, switching to thinking about resilience as a verb overcomes prevalent misconceptions about data, goals, systems, and failures, and may bring a necessary, radical change to the way infrastructure is protected in the future.
ContributorsEisenberg, Daniel Alexander (Author) / Seager, Thomas P. (Thesis advisor) / Park, Jeryang (Thesis advisor) / Alderson, David L. (Committee member) / Lai, Ying-Cheng (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2018
Description
As the world embraces a sustainable energy future, alternative energy resources, such as wind power, are increasingly being seen as an integral part of the future electric energy grid. Ultimately, integrating such a dynamic and variable mix of generation requires a better understanding of renewable generation output, in addition to power grid systems that improve power system operational performance in the presence of anticipated events such as wind power ramps. Because of the stochastic, uncontrollable nature of renewable resources, a thorough and accurate characterization of wind activity is necessary to maintain grid stability and reliability. Wind power ramps from an existing wind farm are studied to characterize persistence forecasting errors using extreme value analysis techniques. In addition, a novel metric that quantifies the amount of non-stationarity in time series wind power data was proposed and used in a real-time algorithm to provide a rigorous method that adaptively determines training data for forecasts. Lastly, large swings in generation or load can cause system frequency and tie-line flows to deviate from nominal, so an anticipatory MPC-based secondary control scheme was designed and integrated into an automatic generation control loop to improve the ability of an interconnection to respond to anticipated large events and fluctuations in the power system.
ContributorsGanger, David (Author) / Vittal, Vijay (Thesis advisor) / Zhang, Junshan (Thesis advisor) / Hedman, Kory (Committee member) / Undrill, John (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2016