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Description
This thesis presents a meta-analysis of lead-free solder reliability. The qualitative analyses of the failure modes of lead- free solder under different stress tests including drop test, bend test, thermal test and vibration test are discussed. The main cause of failure of lead- free solder is fatigue crack, and the speed of propagation of the initial crack could differ from different test conditions and different solder materials. A quantitative analysis about the fatigue behavior of SAC lead-free solder under thermal preconditioning process is conducted. This thesis presents a method of making prediction of failure life of solder alloy by building a Weibull regression model. The failure life of solder on circuit board is assumed Weibull distributed. Different materials and test conditions could affect the distribution by changing the shape and scale parameters of Weibull distribution. The method is to model the regression of parameters with different test conditions as predictors based on Bayesian inference concepts. In the process of building regression models, prior distributions are generated according to the previous studies, and Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is used under WinBUGS environment.
ContributorsXu, Xinyue (Author) / Pan, Rong (Thesis advisor) / Montgomery, Douglas C. (Committee member) / Wu, Teresa (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2014
Description
Fraud is defined as the utilization of deception for illegal gain by hiding the true nature of the activity. While organizations lose around $3.7 trillion in revenue due to financial crimes and fraud worldwide, they can affect all levels of society significantly. In this dissertation, I focus on credit card fraud in online transactions. Every online transaction comes with a fraud risk and it is the merchant's liability to detect and stop fraudulent transactions. Merchants utilize various mechanisms to prevent and manage fraud such as automated fraud detection systems and manual transaction reviews by expert fraud analysts. Many proposed solutions mostly focus on fraud detection accuracy and ignore financial considerations. Also, the highly effective manual review process is overlooked. First, I propose Profit Optimizing Neural Risk Manager (PONRM), a selective classifier that (a) constitutes optimal collaboration between machine learning models and human expertise under industrial constraints, (b) is cost and profit sensitive. I suggest directions on how to characterize fraudulent behavior and assess the risk of a transaction. I show that my framework outperforms cost-sensitive and cost-insensitive baselines on three real-world merchant datasets. While PONRM is able to work with many supervised learners and obtain convincing results, utilizing probability outputs directly from the trained model itself can pose problems, especially in deep learning as softmax output is not a true uncertainty measure. This phenomenon, and the wide and rapid adoption of deep learning by practitioners brought unintended consequences in many situations such as in the infamous case of Google Photos' racist image recognition algorithm; thus, necessitated the utilization of the quantified uncertainty for each prediction. There have been recent efforts towards quantifying uncertainty in conventional deep learning methods (e.g., dropout as Bayesian approximation); however, their optimal use in decision making is often overlooked and understudied. Thus, I present a mixed-integer programming framework for selective classification called MIPSC, that investigates and combines model uncertainty and predictive mean to identify optimal classification and rejection regions. I also extend this framework to cost-sensitive settings (MIPCSC) and focus on the critical real-world problem, online fraud management and show that my approach outperforms industry standard methods significantly for online fraud management in real-world settings.
ContributorsYildirim, Mehmet Yigit (Author) / Davulcu, Hasan (Thesis advisor) / Bakkaloglu, Bertan (Committee member) / Huang, Dijiang (Committee member) / Hsiao, Ihan (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2019
Description
Bayesian networks are powerful tools in system reliability assessment due to their flexibility in modeling the reliability structure of complex systems. This dissertation develops Bayesian network models for system reliability analysis through the use of Bayesian inference techniques.
Bayesian networks generalize fault trees by allowing components and subsystems to be related by conditional probabilities instead of deterministic relationships; thus, they provide analytical advantages to the situation when the failure structure is not well understood, especially during the product design stage. In order to tackle this problem, one needs to utilize auxiliary information such as the reliability information from similar products and domain expertise. For this purpose, a Bayesian network approach is proposed to incorporate data from functional analysis and parent products. The functions with low reliability and their impact on other functions in the network are identified, so that design changes can be suggested for system reliability improvement.
A complex system does not necessarily have all components being monitored at the same time, causing another challenge in the reliability assessment problem. Sometimes there are a limited number of sensors deployed in the system to monitor the states of some components or subsystems, but not all of them. Data simultaneously collected from multiple sensors on the same system are analyzed using a Bayesian network approach, and the conditional probabilities of the network are estimated by combining failure information and expert opinions at both system and component levels. Several data scenarios with discrete, continuous and hybrid data (both discrete and continuous data) are analyzed. Posterior distributions of the reliability parameters of the system and components are assessed using simultaneous data.
Finally, a Bayesian framework is proposed to incorporate different sources of prior information and reconcile these different sources, including expert opinions and component information, in order to form a prior distribution for the system. Incorporating expert opinion in the form of pseudo-observations substantially simplifies statistical modeling, as opposed to the pooling techniques and supra Bayesian methods used for combining prior distributions in the literature.
The methods proposed are demonstrated with several case studies.
Bayesian networks generalize fault trees by allowing components and subsystems to be related by conditional probabilities instead of deterministic relationships; thus, they provide analytical advantages to the situation when the failure structure is not well understood, especially during the product design stage. In order to tackle this problem, one needs to utilize auxiliary information such as the reliability information from similar products and domain expertise. For this purpose, a Bayesian network approach is proposed to incorporate data from functional analysis and parent products. The functions with low reliability and their impact on other functions in the network are identified, so that design changes can be suggested for system reliability improvement.
A complex system does not necessarily have all components being monitored at the same time, causing another challenge in the reliability assessment problem. Sometimes there are a limited number of sensors deployed in the system to monitor the states of some components or subsystems, but not all of them. Data simultaneously collected from multiple sensors on the same system are analyzed using a Bayesian network approach, and the conditional probabilities of the network are estimated by combining failure information and expert opinions at both system and component levels. Several data scenarios with discrete, continuous and hybrid data (both discrete and continuous data) are analyzed. Posterior distributions of the reliability parameters of the system and components are assessed using simultaneous data.
Finally, a Bayesian framework is proposed to incorporate different sources of prior information and reconcile these different sources, including expert opinions and component information, in order to form a prior distribution for the system. Incorporating expert opinion in the form of pseudo-observations substantially simplifies statistical modeling, as opposed to the pooling techniques and supra Bayesian methods used for combining prior distributions in the literature.
The methods proposed are demonstrated with several case studies.
ContributorsYontay, Petek (Author) / Pan, Rong (Thesis advisor) / Montgomery, Douglas C. (Committee member) / Shunk, Dan L. (Committee member) / Du, Xiaoping (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2016
Description
Isolation-by-distance is a specific type of spatial genetic structure that arises when parent-offspring dispersal is limited. Many natural populations exhibit localized dispersal, and as a result, individuals that are geographically near each other will tend to have greater genetic similarity than individuals that are further apart. It is important to identify isolation-by-distance because it can impact the statistical analysis of population samples and it can help us better understand evolutionary dynamics. For this dissertation I investigated several aspects of isolation-by-distance. First, I looked at how the shape of the dispersal distribution affects the observed pattern of isolation-by-distance. If, as theory predicts, the shape of the distribution has little effect, then it would be more practical to model isolation-by-distance using a simple dispersal distribution rather than replicating the complexities of more realistic distributions. Therefore, I developed an efficient algorithm to simulate dispersal based on a simple triangular distribution, and using a simulation, I confirmed that the pattern of isolation-by-distance was similar to other more realistic distributions. Second, I developed a Bayesian method to quantify isolation-by-distance using genetic data by estimating Wright’s neighborhood size parameter. I analyzed the performance of this method using simulated data and a microsatellite data set from two populations of Maritime pine, and I found that the neighborhood size estimates had good coverage and low error. Finally, one of the major consequences of isolation-by-distance is an increase in inbreeding. Plants are often particularly susceptible to inbreeding, and as a result, they have evolved many inbreeding avoidance mechanisms. Using a simulation, I determined which mechanisms are more successful at preventing inbreeding associated with isolation-by-distance.
ContributorsFurstenau, Tara N (Author) / Cartwright, Reed A (Thesis advisor) / Rosenberg, Michael S. (Committee member) / Taylor, Jesse (Committee member) / Wilson-Sayres, Melissa (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2015
Description
Single molecule FRET experiments are important for studying processes that happen on the molecular scale. By using pulsed illumination and collecting single photons, it is possible to use information gained from the fluorescence lifetime of the chromophores in the FRET pair to gain more accurate estimates of the underlying FRET rate which is used to determine information about the distance between the chromophores of the FRET pair. In this paper, we outline a method that utilizes Bayesian inference to learn parameter values for a model informed by the physics of a immobilized single-molecule FRET experiment. This method is unique in that it combines a rigorous look at the photophysics of the FRET pair and a nonparametric treatment of the molecular conformational statespace, allowing the method to learn not just relevant photophysical rates (such as relaxation rates and FRET rates), but also the number of molecular conformational states.
ContributorsSafar, Matthew Matej (Author) / Presse, Steve (Thesis director) / Sgouralis, Ioannis (Committee member) / Department of Physics (Contributor) / School of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences (Contributor, Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2021-05
Description
The climate-driven volumetric response of unsaturated soils (shrink-swell and frost heave) frequently causes costly distresses in lightly loaded structures (pavements and shallow foundations) due to the sporadic climatic fluctuations and soil heterogeneity which is not captured during the geotechnical design. The complexity associated with the unsaturated soil mechanics combined with the high degree of variability in both the natural characteristics of soil and the empirical models which are commonly implemented tends to lead to engineering judgment outweighing the results of deterministic computations for the basis of design. Recent advances in the application of statistical techniques and Bayesian Inference in geotechnical modeling allows for the inclusion of both parameter and model uncertainty, providing a quantifiable representation of this invaluable engineering judgement. The overall goal achieved in this study was to develop, validate, and implement a new method to evaluate climate-driven volume change of shrink-swell soils using a framework that encompasses predominantly stochastic time-series techniques and mechanistic shrink-swell volume change computations. Four valuable objectives were accomplished during this research study while on the path to complete the overall goal: 1) development of an procedure for automating the selection of the Fourier Series form of the soil suction diffusion equations used to represent the natural seasonal variations in suction at the ground surface, 2) development of an improved framework for deterministic estimation of shrink-swell soil volume change using historical climate data and the Fourier series suction model, 3) development of a Bayesian approach to randomly generate combinations of correlated soil properties for use in stochastic simulations, and 4) development of a procedure to stochastically forecast the climatic parameters required for shrink-swell soil volume change estimations. The models presented can be easily implemented into existing foundation and pavement design procedures or used for forensic evaluations using historical data. For pavement design, the new framework for stochastically forecasting the variability of shrink-swell soil volume change provides significant improvement over the existing empirical models that have been used for more than four decades.
ContributorsOlaiz, Austin Hunter (Author) / Zapata, Claudia (Thesis advisor) / Houston, Sandra (Committee member) / Kavazanjian, Edward (Committee member) / Soltanpour, Yasser (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2022
Description
In this work, the author analyzes quantitative and structural aspects of Bayesian inference using Markov kernels, Wasserstein metrics, and Kantorovich monads. In particular, the author shows the following main results: first, that Markov kernels can be viewed as Borel measurable maps with values in a Wasserstein space; second, that the Disintegration Theorem can be interpreted as a literal equality of integrals using an original theory of integration for Markov kernels; third, that the Kantorovich monad can be defined for Wasserstein metrics of any order; and finally, that, under certain assumptions, a generalized Bayes’s Law for Markov kernels provably leads to convergence of the expected posterior distribution in the Wasserstein metric. These contributions provide a basis for studying further convergence, approximation, and stability properties of Bayesian inverse maps and inference processes using a unified theoretical framework that bridges between statistical inference, machine learning, and probabilistic programming semantics.
ContributorsEikenberry, Keenan (Author) / Cochran, Douglas (Thesis advisor) / Lan, Shiwei (Thesis advisor) / Dasarathy, Gautam (Committee member) / Kotschwar, Brett (Committee member) / Shahbaba, Babak (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2023