Matching Items (13)
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- All Subjects: Photovoltaic power generation
- Creators: Karady, George G.
- Creators: Yu, Hongbin
- Member of: Theses and Dissertations
Description
Battery energy storage has shown a lot of potential in the recent past to be effective in various grid services due to its near instantaneous ramp rates and modularity. This thesis aims to determine the commercial viability of customer premises and substation sited battery energy storage systems. Five different types of services have been analyzed considering current market pricing of Lithium-ion batteries and power conditioning equipment. Energy Storage Valuation Tool 3.0 (Beta) has been used to exclusively determine the value of energy storage in the services analyzed. The results indicate that on the residential level, Lithium-ion battery energy storage may not be a cost beneficial option for retail tariff management or demand charge management as only 20-30% of the initial investment is recovered at the end of 15 year plant life. SRP's two retail Time-of-Use price plans E-21 and E-26 were analyzed in respect of their ability to increase returns from storage compared to those with flat pricing. It was observed that without a coupled PV component, E-21 was more suitable for customer premises energy storage, however, its revenue stream reduces with addition to PV. On the grid scale, however, with carefully chosen service hierarchy such as distribution investment deferral, spinning or balancing reserve support, the initial investment can be recovered to an extent of about 50-70%. The study done here is specific to Salt River Project inputs and data. Results for all the services analyzed are highly location specific and are only indicative of the overall viability and returns from them.
ContributorsNadkarni, Aditya (Author) / Karady, George G. (Thesis advisor) / Ayyanar, Raja (Committee member) / Hedman, Kory (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2013
Description
An increase in the number of inverter-interfaced photovoltaic (PV) generators on existing distribution feeders affects the design, operation, and control of the distri- bution systems. Existing distribution system analysis tools are capable of supporting only snapshot and quasi-static analyses. Capturing the dynamic effects of the PV generators during the variation in the distribution system states is necessary when studying the effects of controller bandwidths, multiple voltage correction devices, and anti-islanding. This work explores the use of dynamic phasors and differential algebraic equations (DAE) for impact analysis of the PV generators on the existing distribution feeders.
The voltage unbalance induced by PV generators can aggravate the existing unbalance due to load mismatch. An increased phase unbalance significantly adds to the neutral currents, excessive neutral to ground voltages and violate the standards for unbalance factor. The objective of this study is to analyze and quantify the impacts of unbalanced PV installations on a distribution feeder. Additionally, a power electronic converter solution is proposed to mitigate the identified impacts and validate the solution's effectiveness through detailed simulations in OpenDSS.
The benefits associated with the use of energy storage systems for electric- utility-related applications are also studied. This research provides a generalized framework for strategic deployment of a lithium-ion based energy storage system to increase their benefits in a distribution feeder. A significant amount of work has been performed for a detailed characterization of the life cycle costs of an energy storage system. The objectives include - reduction of the substation transformer losses, reduction of the life cycle cost for an energy storage system, and accommodate the PV variability.
The distribution feeder laterals in the distribution feeder with relatively high PV generation as compared to the load can be operated as microgrids to achieve reliability, power quality and economic benefits. However, the renewable resources are intermittent and stochastic in nature. A novel approach for sizing and scheduling the energy storage system and microtrubine is proposed for reliable operation of microgrids. The size and schedule of the energy storage system and microturbine are determined using Benders' decomposition, considering the PV generation as a stochastic resource.
The voltage unbalance induced by PV generators can aggravate the existing unbalance due to load mismatch. An increased phase unbalance significantly adds to the neutral currents, excessive neutral to ground voltages and violate the standards for unbalance factor. The objective of this study is to analyze and quantify the impacts of unbalanced PV installations on a distribution feeder. Additionally, a power electronic converter solution is proposed to mitigate the identified impacts and validate the solution's effectiveness through detailed simulations in OpenDSS.
The benefits associated with the use of energy storage systems for electric- utility-related applications are also studied. This research provides a generalized framework for strategic deployment of a lithium-ion based energy storage system to increase their benefits in a distribution feeder. A significant amount of work has been performed for a detailed characterization of the life cycle costs of an energy storage system. The objectives include - reduction of the substation transformer losses, reduction of the life cycle cost for an energy storage system, and accommodate the PV variability.
The distribution feeder laterals in the distribution feeder with relatively high PV generation as compared to the load can be operated as microgrids to achieve reliability, power quality and economic benefits. However, the renewable resources are intermittent and stochastic in nature. A novel approach for sizing and scheduling the energy storage system and microtrubine is proposed for reliable operation of microgrids. The size and schedule of the energy storage system and microturbine are determined using Benders' decomposition, considering the PV generation as a stochastic resource.
ContributorsNagarajan, Adarsh (Author) / Ayyanar, Raja (Thesis advisor) / Vittal, Vijay (Committee member) / Heydt, Gerald (Committee member) / Karady, George G. (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2015
Description
This dissertation aims to demonstrate a new approach to fabricating solar cells for spectrum-splitting photovoltaic systems with the potential to reduce their cost and complexity of manufacturing, called Monolithically Integrated Laterally Arrayed Multiple Band gap (MILAMB) solar cells. Single crystal semiconductor alloy nanowire (NW) ensembles are grown with the alloy composition and band gap changing continuously across a broad range over the surface of a single substrate in a single, inexpensive growth step by the Dual-Gradient Method. The nanowire ensembles then serve as the absorbing materials in a set of solar cells for spectrum-splitting photovoltaic systems.
Preliminary design and simulation studies based on Anderson's model band line-ups were undertaken for CdPbS and InGaN alloys. Systems of six subcells obtained efficiencies in the 32-38% range for CdPbS and 34-40% for InGaN at 1-240 suns, though both materials systems require significant development before these results could be achieved experimentally. For an experimental demonstration, CdSSe was selected due to its availability. Proof-of-concept CdSSe nanowire ensemble solar cells with two subcells were fabricated simultaneously on one substrate. I-V characterization under 1 sun AM1.5G conditions yielded open-circuit voltages (Voc) up to 307 and 173 mV and short-circuit current densities (Jsc) up to 0.091 and 0.974 mA/cm2 for the CdS- and CdSe-rich cells, respectively. Similar thin film cells were also fabricated for comparison. The nanowire cells showed substantially higher Voc than the film cells, which was attributed to higher material quality in the CdSSe absorber. I-V measurements were also conducted with optical filters to simulate a simple form of spectrum-splitting. The CdS-rich cells showed uniformly higher Voc and fill factor (FF) than the CdSe-rich cells, as expected due to their larger band gaps. This suggested higher power density was produced by the CdS-rich cells on the single-nanowire level, which is the principal benefit of spectrum-splitting. These results constitute a proof-of-concept experimental demonstration of the MILAMB approach to fabricating multiple cells for spectrum-splitting photovoltaics. Future systems based on this approach could help to reduce the cost and complexity of manufacturing spectrum-splitting photovoltaic systems and offer a low cost alternative to multi-junction tandems for achieving high efficiencies.
Preliminary design and simulation studies based on Anderson's model band line-ups were undertaken for CdPbS and InGaN alloys. Systems of six subcells obtained efficiencies in the 32-38% range for CdPbS and 34-40% for InGaN at 1-240 suns, though both materials systems require significant development before these results could be achieved experimentally. For an experimental demonstration, CdSSe was selected due to its availability. Proof-of-concept CdSSe nanowire ensemble solar cells with two subcells were fabricated simultaneously on one substrate. I-V characterization under 1 sun AM1.5G conditions yielded open-circuit voltages (Voc) up to 307 and 173 mV and short-circuit current densities (Jsc) up to 0.091 and 0.974 mA/cm2 for the CdS- and CdSe-rich cells, respectively. Similar thin film cells were also fabricated for comparison. The nanowire cells showed substantially higher Voc than the film cells, which was attributed to higher material quality in the CdSSe absorber. I-V measurements were also conducted with optical filters to simulate a simple form of spectrum-splitting. The CdS-rich cells showed uniformly higher Voc and fill factor (FF) than the CdSe-rich cells, as expected due to their larger band gaps. This suggested higher power density was produced by the CdS-rich cells on the single-nanowire level, which is the principal benefit of spectrum-splitting. These results constitute a proof-of-concept experimental demonstration of the MILAMB approach to fabricating multiple cells for spectrum-splitting photovoltaics. Future systems based on this approach could help to reduce the cost and complexity of manufacturing spectrum-splitting photovoltaic systems and offer a low cost alternative to multi-junction tandems for achieving high efficiencies.
ContributorsCaselli, Derek (Author) / Ning, Cun-Zheng (Thesis advisor) / Tao, Meng (Committee member) / Yu, Hongbin (Committee member) / Vasileska, Dragica (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2014
Description
The development of a Solid State Transformer (SST) that incorporates a DC-DC multiport converter to integrate both photovoltaic (PV) power generation and battery energy storage is presented in this dissertation. The DC-DC stage is based on a quad-active-bridge (QAB) converter which not only provides isolation for the load, but also for the PV and storage. The AC-DC stage is implemented with a pulse-width-modulated (PWM) single phase rectifier. A unified gyrator-based average model is developed for a general multi-active-bridge (MAB) converter controlled through phase-shift modulation (PSM). Expressions to determine the power rating of the MAB ports are also derived. The developed gyrator-based average model is applied to the QAB converter for faster simulations of the proposed SST during the control design process as well for deriving the state-space representation of the plant. Both linear quadratic regulator (LQR) and single-input-single-output (SISO) types of controllers are designed for the DC-DC stage. A novel technique that complements the SISO controller by taking into account the cross-coupling characteristics of the QAB converter is also presented herein. Cascaded SISO controllers are designed for the AC-DC stage. The QAB demanded power is calculated at the QAB controls and then fed into the rectifier controls in order to minimize the effect of the interaction between the two SST stages. The dynamic performance of the designed control loops based on the proposed control strategies are verified through extensive simulation of the SST average and switching models. The experimental results presented herein show that the transient responses for each control strategy match those from the simulations results thus validating them.
ContributorsFalcones, Sixifo Daniel (Author) / Ayyanar, Raja (Thesis advisor) / Karady, George G. (Committee member) / Tylavsky, Daniel (Committee member) / Tsakalis, Konstantinos (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2011
Towards high-efficiency thin-film solar cells: from theoretical analysis to experimental exploration
Description
GaAs single-junction solar cells have been studied extensively in recent years, and have reached over 28 % efficiency. Further improvement requires an optically thick but physically thin absorber to provide both large short-circuit current and high open-circuit voltage. By detailed simulation, it is concluded that ultra-thin GaAs cells with hundreds of nanometers thickness and reflective back scattering can potentially offer efficiencies greater than 30 %. The 300 nm GaAs solar cell with AlInP/Au reflective back scattering is carefully designed and demonstrates an efficiency of 19.1 %. The device performance is analyzed using the semi-analytical model with Phong distribution implemented to account for non-Lambertian scattering. A Phong exponent m of ~12, a non-radiative lifetime of 130 ns, and a specific series resistivity of 1.2 Ω·cm2 are determined.
Thin-film CdTe solar cells have also attracted lots of attention due to the continuous improvements in their device performance. To address the issue of the lower efficiency record compared to detailed-balance limit, the single-crystalline Cd(Zn)Te/MgCdTe double heterostructures (DH) grown on InSb (100) substrates by molecular beam epitaxy (MBE) are carefully studied. The Cd0.9946Zn0.0054Te alloy lattice-matched to InSb has been demonstrated with a carrier lifetime of 0.34 µs observed in a 3 µm thick Cd0.9946Zn0.0054Te/MgCdTe DH sample. The substantial improvement of lifetime is due to the reduction in misfit dislocation density. The recombination lifetime and interface recombination velocity (IRV) of CdTe/MgxCd1-xTe DHs are investigated. The IRV is found to be dependent on both the MgCdTe barrier height and width due to the thermionic emission and tunneling processes. A record-long carrier lifetime of 2.7 µs and a record-low IRV of close to zero have been confirmed experimentally.
The MgCdTe/Si tandem solar cell is proposed to address the issue of high manufacturing costs and poor performance of thin-film solar cells. The MBE grown MgxCd1-xTe/MgyCd1-yTe DHs have demonstrated the required bandgap energy of 1.7 eV, a carrier lifetime of 11 ns, and an effective IRV of (1.869 ± 0.007) × 103 cm/s. The large IRV is attributed to thermionic-emission induced interface recombination. These understandings can be applied to fabricating the high-efficiency low-cost MgCdTe/Si tandem solar cell.
Thin-film CdTe solar cells have also attracted lots of attention due to the continuous improvements in their device performance. To address the issue of the lower efficiency record compared to detailed-balance limit, the single-crystalline Cd(Zn)Te/MgCdTe double heterostructures (DH) grown on InSb (100) substrates by molecular beam epitaxy (MBE) are carefully studied. The Cd0.9946Zn0.0054Te alloy lattice-matched to InSb has been demonstrated with a carrier lifetime of 0.34 µs observed in a 3 µm thick Cd0.9946Zn0.0054Te/MgCdTe DH sample. The substantial improvement of lifetime is due to the reduction in misfit dislocation density. The recombination lifetime and interface recombination velocity (IRV) of CdTe/MgxCd1-xTe DHs are investigated. The IRV is found to be dependent on both the MgCdTe barrier height and width due to the thermionic emission and tunneling processes. A record-long carrier lifetime of 2.7 µs and a record-low IRV of close to zero have been confirmed experimentally.
The MgCdTe/Si tandem solar cell is proposed to address the issue of high manufacturing costs and poor performance of thin-film solar cells. The MBE grown MgxCd1-xTe/MgyCd1-yTe DHs have demonstrated the required bandgap energy of 1.7 eV, a carrier lifetime of 11 ns, and an effective IRV of (1.869 ± 0.007) × 103 cm/s. The large IRV is attributed to thermionic-emission induced interface recombination. These understandings can be applied to fabricating the high-efficiency low-cost MgCdTe/Si tandem solar cell.
ContributorsLiu, Shi (Author) / Zhang, Yong-Hang (Thesis advisor) / Johnson, Shane R (Committee member) / Vasileska, Dragica (Committee member) / Yu, Hongbin (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2015
Description
Li-ion batteries are being used on a large scale varying from consumer electronics to electric vehicles. The key to efficient use of batteries is implementing a well-developed battery management system. Also, there is an opportunity for research for improving the battery performance in terms of size and capacity. For all this it is imperative to develop Li-ion cell model that replicate the performance of a physical cell unit. This report discusses a dual polarization cell model and a battery management system implemented to control the operation of the battery. The Li-ion cell is modelled, and the performance is observed in PLECS environment.
The main aspect of this report studies the viability of Li-ion battery application in Battery Energy Storage System (BESS) in Modular multilevel converter (MMC). MMC-based BESS is a promising solution for grid-level battery energy storage to accelerate utilization and integration of intermittent renewable energy resources, i.e., solar and wind energy. When the battery units are directly integrated in submodules (SMs) without dc-dc interfaced converters, this configuration provides highest system efficiency and lowest cost. However, the lifetime of battery will be affected by the low-frequency components contained in arm currents, which has not been thoroughly investigated. This paper investigates impact of various low-frequency arm-current ripples on lifetime of Li-ion battery cells and evaluate performance of battery charging and discharging in an MMC-BESS without dc-dc interfaced converters.
The main aspect of this report studies the viability of Li-ion battery application in Battery Energy Storage System (BESS) in Modular multilevel converter (MMC). MMC-based BESS is a promising solution for grid-level battery energy storage to accelerate utilization and integration of intermittent renewable energy resources, i.e., solar and wind energy. When the battery units are directly integrated in submodules (SMs) without dc-dc interfaced converters, this configuration provides highest system efficiency and lowest cost. However, the lifetime of battery will be affected by the low-frequency components contained in arm currents, which has not been thoroughly investigated. This paper investigates impact of various low-frequency arm-current ripples on lifetime of Li-ion battery cells and evaluate performance of battery charging and discharging in an MMC-BESS without dc-dc interfaced converters.
ContributorsPuranik, Ishaan (Author) / Qin, Jiangchao (Thesis advisor) / Karady, George G. (Committee member) / Yu, Hongbin (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2018
Description
Present distribution infrastructure is designed mainly for uni-directional power flow with well-controlled generation. An increase in the inverter-interfaced photovoltaic (PV) systems requires a thorough re-examination of the design, operation, protection and control of distribution systems. In order to understand the impact of high penetration of PV generation, this work conducts an automated and detailed modeling of a power distribution system. The simulation results of the modeled distribution feeder have been verified with the field measurements.
Based on the feeder model, this work studies the impact of the PV systems on voltage profiles under various scenarios, including reallocation of the PV systems, reactive power support from the PV inverters, and settings of the load-tap changing transformers in coordination with the PV penetration. Design recommendations have been made based on the simulation results to improve the voltage profiles in the feeder studied.
To carry out dynamic studies related to high penetration of PV systems, this work proposes a differential algebraic equation (DAE) based dynamic modeling and analysis method. Different controllers including inverter current controllers, anti-islanding controllers and droop controllers, are designed and tested in large systems. The method extends the capability of the distribution system analysis tools, to help conduct dynamic analyses in large unbalanced distribution systems.
Another main contribution of this work is related to the investigation of the PV impacts on the feeder protection coordination. Various protection coordination types, including fuse-fuse, recloser-fuse, relay-fuse and relay-recloser have been studied. The analyses provide a better understanding of the relay and recloser settings under different configurations of the PV interconnection transformers, PV penetration levels, and fault types.
A decision tree and fuzzy logic based fault location identification process has also been proposed in this work. The process is composed of the off-line training of the decision tree, and the on-line analysis of the fault events. Fault current contribution from the PV systems, as well as the variation of the fault resistance have been taken into consideration. Two actual fault cases with the event data recorded were used to examine the effectiveness of the fault identification process.
Based on the feeder model, this work studies the impact of the PV systems on voltage profiles under various scenarios, including reallocation of the PV systems, reactive power support from the PV inverters, and settings of the load-tap changing transformers in coordination with the PV penetration. Design recommendations have been made based on the simulation results to improve the voltage profiles in the feeder studied.
To carry out dynamic studies related to high penetration of PV systems, this work proposes a differential algebraic equation (DAE) based dynamic modeling and analysis method. Different controllers including inverter current controllers, anti-islanding controllers and droop controllers, are designed and tested in large systems. The method extends the capability of the distribution system analysis tools, to help conduct dynamic analyses in large unbalanced distribution systems.
Another main contribution of this work is related to the investigation of the PV impacts on the feeder protection coordination. Various protection coordination types, including fuse-fuse, recloser-fuse, relay-fuse and relay-recloser have been studied. The analyses provide a better understanding of the relay and recloser settings under different configurations of the PV interconnection transformers, PV penetration levels, and fault types.
A decision tree and fuzzy logic based fault location identification process has also been proposed in this work. The process is composed of the off-line training of the decision tree, and the on-line analysis of the fault events. Fault current contribution from the PV systems, as well as the variation of the fault resistance have been taken into consideration. Two actual fault cases with the event data recorded were used to examine the effectiveness of the fault identification process.
ContributorsTang, Yingying (Author) / Ayyanar, Raja (Thesis advisor) / Karady, George G. (Committee member) / Heydt, Gerald (Committee member) / Vittal, Vijay (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2016
Description
The demand for cleaner energy technology is increasing very rapidly. Hence it is
important to increase the eciency and reliability of this emerging clean energy technologies.
This thesis focuses on modeling and reliability of solar micro inverters. In
order to make photovoltaics (PV) cost competitive with traditional energy sources,
the economies of scale have been guiding inverter design in two directions: large,
centralized, utility-scale (500 kW) inverters vs. small, modular, module level (300
W) power electronics (MLPE). MLPE, such as microinverters and DC power optimizers,
oer advantages in safety, system operations and maintenance, energy yield,
and component lifetime due to their smaller size, lower power handling requirements,
and module-level power point tracking and monitoring capability [1]. However, they
suer from two main disadvantages: rst, depending on array topology (especially
the proximity to the PV module), they can be subjected to more extreme environments
(i.e. temperature cycling) during the day, resulting in a negative impact to
reliability; second, since solar installations can have tens of thousands to millions of
modules (and as many MLPE units), it may be dicult or impossible to track and
repair units as they go out of service. Therefore identifying the weak links in this
system is of critical importance to develop more reliable micro inverters.
While an overwhelming majority of time and research has focused on PV module
eciency and reliability, these issues have been largely ignored for the balance
of system components. As a relatively nascent industry, the PV power electronics
industry does not have the extensive, standardized reliability design and testing procedures
that exist in the module industry or other more mature power electronics
industries (e.g. automotive). To do so, the critical components which are at risk and
their impact on the system performance has to be studied. This thesis identies and
addresses some of the issues related to reliability of solar micro inverters.
This thesis presents detailed discussions on various components of solar micro inverter
and their design. A micro inverter with very similar electrical specications in
comparison with commercial micro inverter is modeled in detail and veried. Components
in various stages of micro inverter are listed and their typical failure mechanisms
are reviewed. A detailed FMEA is conducted for a typical micro inverter to identify
the weak links of the system. Based on the S, O and D metrics, risk priority number
(RPN) is calculated to list the critical at-risk components. Degradation of DC bus
capacitor is identied as one the failure mechanism and the degradation model is built
to study its eect on the system performance. The system is tested for surge immunity
using standard ring and combinational surge waveforms as per IEEE 62.41 and
IEC 61000-4-5 standards. All the simulation presented in this thesis is performed
using PLECS simulation software.
important to increase the eciency and reliability of this emerging clean energy technologies.
This thesis focuses on modeling and reliability of solar micro inverters. In
order to make photovoltaics (PV) cost competitive with traditional energy sources,
the economies of scale have been guiding inverter design in two directions: large,
centralized, utility-scale (500 kW) inverters vs. small, modular, module level (300
W) power electronics (MLPE). MLPE, such as microinverters and DC power optimizers,
oer advantages in safety, system operations and maintenance, energy yield,
and component lifetime due to their smaller size, lower power handling requirements,
and module-level power point tracking and monitoring capability [1]. However, they
suer from two main disadvantages: rst, depending on array topology (especially
the proximity to the PV module), they can be subjected to more extreme environments
(i.e. temperature cycling) during the day, resulting in a negative impact to
reliability; second, since solar installations can have tens of thousands to millions of
modules (and as many MLPE units), it may be dicult or impossible to track and
repair units as they go out of service. Therefore identifying the weak links in this
system is of critical importance to develop more reliable micro inverters.
While an overwhelming majority of time and research has focused on PV module
eciency and reliability, these issues have been largely ignored for the balance
of system components. As a relatively nascent industry, the PV power electronics
industry does not have the extensive, standardized reliability design and testing procedures
that exist in the module industry or other more mature power electronics
industries (e.g. automotive). To do so, the critical components which are at risk and
their impact on the system performance has to be studied. This thesis identies and
addresses some of the issues related to reliability of solar micro inverters.
This thesis presents detailed discussions on various components of solar micro inverter
and their design. A micro inverter with very similar electrical specications in
comparison with commercial micro inverter is modeled in detail and veried. Components
in various stages of micro inverter are listed and their typical failure mechanisms
are reviewed. A detailed FMEA is conducted for a typical micro inverter to identify
the weak links of the system. Based on the S, O and D metrics, risk priority number
(RPN) is calculated to list the critical at-risk components. Degradation of DC bus
capacitor is identied as one the failure mechanism and the degradation model is built
to study its eect on the system performance. The system is tested for surge immunity
using standard ring and combinational surge waveforms as per IEEE 62.41 and
IEC 61000-4-5 standards. All the simulation presented in this thesis is performed
using PLECS simulation software.
ContributorsManchanahalli Ranganatha, Arkanatha Sastry (Author) / Ayyanar, Raja (Thesis advisor) / Karady, George G. (Committee member) / Qin, Jiangchao (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2015
Description
The inherent intermittency in solar energy resources poses challenges to scheduling generation, transmission, and distribution systems. Energy storage devices are often used to mitigate variability in renewable asset generation and provide a mechanism to shift renewable power between periods of the day. In the absence of storage, however, time series forecasting techniques can be used to estimate future solar resource availability to improve the accuracy of solar generator scheduling. The knowledge of future solar availability helps scheduling solar generation at high-penetration levels, and assists with the selection and scheduling of spinning reserves. This study employs statistical techniques to improve the accuracy of solar resource forecasts that are in turn used to estimate solar photovoltaic (PV) power generation. The first part of the study involves time series forecasting of the global horizontal irradiation (GHI) in Phoenix, Arizona using Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) models. A comparative study is completed for time series forecasting models developed with different time step resolutions, forecasting start time, forecasting time horizons, training data, and transformations for data measured at Phoenix, Arizona. Approximately 3,000 models were generated and evaluated across the entire study. One major finding is that forecasted values one day ahead are near repeats of the preceding day—due to the 24-hour seasonal differencing—indicating that use of statistical forecasting over multiple days creates a repeating pattern. Logarithmic transform data were found to perform poorly in nearly all cases relative to untransformed or square-root transform data when forecasting out to four days. Forecasts using a logarithmic transform followed a similar profile as the immediate day prior whereas forecasts using untransformed and square-root transform data had smoother daily solar profiles that better represented the average intraday profile. Error values were generally lower during mornings and evenings and higher during midday. Regarding one-day forecasting and shorter forecasting horizons, the logarithmic transformation performed better than untransformed data and square-root transformed data irrespective of forecast horizon for data resolutions of 1-hour, 30-minutes, and 15-minutes.
ContributorsSoundiah Regunathan Rajasekaran, Dhiwaakar Purusothaman (Author) / Johnson, Nathan G (Thesis advisor) / Karady, George G. (Thesis advisor) / Ayyanar, Raja (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2016
Description
Due to the increasing trend of electricity price for the future and the price reduction of solar electronics price led by the policy stimulus and the technological improvement, the residential distribution solar photovoltaic (PV) system’s market is prosperous. Excess energy can be sold back to the grid, however peak demand of a residential customer typically occurs in late afternoon/early evening when PV systems are not a productive. The solar PV system can provide residential customers sufficient energy during the daytime, even the exceeding energy can be sold back to the grid especially during the day with good sunlight, however, the peak demand of a regular family always appears during late afternoon and early evening which are not productive time for PV system. In this case, the PV customers only need the grid energy when other customers also need it the most. Because of the lower contribution of PV systems during times of peak demand, utilities are beginning to adjust rate structures to better align the bills paid by PV customers with the cost to the utility to serve those customers. Different rate structures include higher fixed charges, higher on-peak electricity prices, on-peak demand charges, or prices based on avoided costs. The demand charge and the on-peak energy charge significantly reduced the savings brought by the PV system. This will result in a longer the customer’s payback period. Eventually PV customers are not saving a lot in their electricity bill compare to those customers who do not own a PV system.
A battery system is a promising technology that can improve monthly bill savings since a battery can store the solar energy and the off-peak grid energy and release it later during the on-peak hours. Sponsored by Salt River Project (SRP), a smart home model consists 1.35 kW PV panels, a 7.76 kWh lithium-ion battery and an adjustable resistive load bank was built on the roof of Engineering Research Center (ERC) building. For analysis, data was scaled up by 6/1.35 times to simulate a real residential PV setup. The testing data had been continuously recorded for more than one year (Aug.2014 - Oct.2015) and a battery charging strategy was developed based on those data. The work of this thesis deals with the idea of this charging strategy and the economic benefits this charging strategy can bring to the PV customers. Part of this research work has been wrote into a conference paper which is accepted by IEEE PES General Meeting 2016. A new and larger system has been installed on the roof with 6 kW PV modules and 6 kW output integrated electronics. This project will go on and the method come up by this thesis will be tested.
A battery system is a promising technology that can improve monthly bill savings since a battery can store the solar energy and the off-peak grid energy and release it later during the on-peak hours. Sponsored by Salt River Project (SRP), a smart home model consists 1.35 kW PV panels, a 7.76 kWh lithium-ion battery and an adjustable resistive load bank was built on the roof of Engineering Research Center (ERC) building. For analysis, data was scaled up by 6/1.35 times to simulate a real residential PV setup. The testing data had been continuously recorded for more than one year (Aug.2014 - Oct.2015) and a battery charging strategy was developed based on those data. The work of this thesis deals with the idea of this charging strategy and the economic benefits this charging strategy can bring to the PV customers. Part of this research work has been wrote into a conference paper which is accepted by IEEE PES General Meeting 2016. A new and larger system has been installed on the roof with 6 kW PV modules and 6 kW output integrated electronics. This project will go on and the method come up by this thesis will be tested.
ContributorsWang, Xin'an (Author) / Karady, George G. (Thesis advisor) / Smedley, Grant (Committee member) / Qin, Jiangchao (Committee member) / Ayyanar, Raja (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2016