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- Creators: Ayyanar, Raja
Description
The inherent intermittency in solar energy resources poses challenges to scheduling generation, transmission, and distribution systems. Energy storage devices are often used to mitigate variability in renewable asset generation and provide a mechanism to shift renewable power between periods of the day. In the absence of storage, however, time series forecasting techniques can be used to estimate future solar resource availability to improve the accuracy of solar generator scheduling. The knowledge of future solar availability helps scheduling solar generation at high-penetration levels, and assists with the selection and scheduling of spinning reserves. This study employs statistical techniques to improve the accuracy of solar resource forecasts that are in turn used to estimate solar photovoltaic (PV) power generation. The first part of the study involves time series forecasting of the global horizontal irradiation (GHI) in Phoenix, Arizona using Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) models. A comparative study is completed for time series forecasting models developed with different time step resolutions, forecasting start time, forecasting time horizons, training data, and transformations for data measured at Phoenix, Arizona. Approximately 3,000 models were generated and evaluated across the entire study. One major finding is that forecasted values one day ahead are near repeats of the preceding day—due to the 24-hour seasonal differencing—indicating that use of statistical forecasting over multiple days creates a repeating pattern. Logarithmic transform data were found to perform poorly in nearly all cases relative to untransformed or square-root transform data when forecasting out to four days. Forecasts using a logarithmic transform followed a similar profile as the immediate day prior whereas forecasts using untransformed and square-root transform data had smoother daily solar profiles that better represented the average intraday profile. Error values were generally lower during mornings and evenings and higher during midday. Regarding one-day forecasting and shorter forecasting horizons, the logarithmic transformation performed better than untransformed data and square-root transformed data irrespective of forecast horizon for data resolutions of 1-hour, 30-minutes, and 15-minutes.
ContributorsSoundiah Regunathan Rajasekaran, Dhiwaakar Purusothaman (Author) / Johnson, Nathan G (Thesis advisor) / Karady, George G. (Thesis advisor) / Ayyanar, Raja (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2016
Description
In recent years, there are increasing numbers of applications that use multi-variate time series data where multiple uni-variate time series coexist. However, there is a lack of systematic of multi-variate time series. This thesis focuses on (a) defining a simplified inter-related multi-variate time series (IMTS) model and (b) developing robust multi-variate temporal (RMT) feature extraction algorithm that can be used for locating, filtering, and describing salient features in multi-variate time series data sets. The proposed RMT feature can also be used for supporting multiple analysis tasks, such as visualization, segmentation, and searching / retrieving based on multi-variate time series similarities. Experiments confirm that the proposed feature extraction algorithm is highly efficient and effective in identifying robust multi-scale temporal features of multi-variate time series.
ContributorsWang, Xiaolan (Author) / Candan, Kasim Selcuk (Thesis advisor) / Sapino, Maria Luisa (Committee member) / Fainekos, Georgios (Committee member) / Davulcu, Hasan (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2013