Matching Items (3)
Description
ABSTRACT
Famine is the result of a complex set of environmental and social factors. Climate conditions are established as environmental factors contributing to famine occurrence, often through teleconnective patterns. This dissertation is designed to investigate the combined influence on world famine patterns of teleconnections, specifically the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Southern Oscillation (SO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), or regional climate variations such as the South Asian Summer Monsoon (SASM). The investigation is three regional case studies of famine patterns specifically, Egypt, the British Isles, and India.
The first study (published in Holocene) employs the results of a Principal Component Analysis (PCA) yielding a SO-NAO eigenvector to predict major Egyptian famines between AD 1049-1921. The SO-NAO eigenvector (1) successfully discriminates between the 5-10 years preceding a famine and the other years, (2) predicts eight of ten major famines, and (3) correctly identifies fifty out of eighty events (63%) of food availability decline leading up to major famines.
The second study investigates the impact of the NAO, PDO, SO, and AMO on 63 British Isle famines between AD 1049 and 1914 attributed to climate causes in historical texts. Stepwise Regression Analysis demonstrates that the 5-year lagged NAO is the primary teleconnective influence on famine patterns; it successfully discriminates 73.8% of weather-related famines in the British Isles from 1049 to 1914.
The final study identifies the aggregated influence of the NAO, SO, PDO, and SASM on 70 Indian famines from AD 1049 to 1955. PCA results in a NAO-SOI vector and SASM vector that predicts famine conditions with a positive NAO and negative SO, distinct from the secondary SASM influence. The NAO-famine relationship is consistently the strongest; 181 of 220 (82%) of all famines occurred during positive NAO years.
Ultimately, the causes of famine are complex and involve many factors including societal and climatic. This dissertation demonstrates that climate teleconnections impact famine patterns and often the aggregates of multiple climate variables hold the most significant climatic impact. These results will increase the understanding of famine patterns and will help to better allocate resources to alleviate future famines.
Famine is the result of a complex set of environmental and social factors. Climate conditions are established as environmental factors contributing to famine occurrence, often through teleconnective patterns. This dissertation is designed to investigate the combined influence on world famine patterns of teleconnections, specifically the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Southern Oscillation (SO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), or regional climate variations such as the South Asian Summer Monsoon (SASM). The investigation is three regional case studies of famine patterns specifically, Egypt, the British Isles, and India.
The first study (published in Holocene) employs the results of a Principal Component Analysis (PCA) yielding a SO-NAO eigenvector to predict major Egyptian famines between AD 1049-1921. The SO-NAO eigenvector (1) successfully discriminates between the 5-10 years preceding a famine and the other years, (2) predicts eight of ten major famines, and (3) correctly identifies fifty out of eighty events (63%) of food availability decline leading up to major famines.
The second study investigates the impact of the NAO, PDO, SO, and AMO on 63 British Isle famines between AD 1049 and 1914 attributed to climate causes in historical texts. Stepwise Regression Analysis demonstrates that the 5-year lagged NAO is the primary teleconnective influence on famine patterns; it successfully discriminates 73.8% of weather-related famines in the British Isles from 1049 to 1914.
The final study identifies the aggregated influence of the NAO, SO, PDO, and SASM on 70 Indian famines from AD 1049 to 1955. PCA results in a NAO-SOI vector and SASM vector that predicts famine conditions with a positive NAO and negative SO, distinct from the secondary SASM influence. The NAO-famine relationship is consistently the strongest; 181 of 220 (82%) of all famines occurred during positive NAO years.
Ultimately, the causes of famine are complex and involve many factors including societal and climatic. This dissertation demonstrates that climate teleconnections impact famine patterns and often the aggregates of multiple climate variables hold the most significant climatic impact. These results will increase the understanding of famine patterns and will help to better allocate resources to alleviate future famines.
ContributorsSantoro, Michael Melton (Author) / Cerveny, Randall S. (Thesis advisor) / McHugh, Kevin (Committee member) / Brazel, Anthony (Committee member) / Balling Jr., Robert C. (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2017
Description
This research looks at the state of Anglo-American political relations since 1980. By examining the political partnerships between Ronald Reagan and Margaret Thatcher, Margaret Thatcher and George H.W. Bush, George W. Bush and Tony Blair, Barack Obama and Gordon Brown, and Barack Obama and David Cameron, it explores if the so called ‘special relationship’ remains so special today in a world of growing political animosity and challenges. The thesis argues that the success of the ‘special relationship’ between the United States and United Kingdom has not been just due to similar political ideologies or goals, but also personal friendships which often overcame national interests or immediate personal political gain. Furthermore, it is often the periods of disagreement between these sets of leaders that helped strengthen the relationship between America and Britain, evidenced by episodes like the Falklands War, policy towards the Soviet Union, the invasion of Grenada, and the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. Ultimately, the thesis explores how current relations have deteriorated due to problems on both sides of the Atlantic under the Obama, Brown, and Cameron administrations, but the research concludes that the special relationship is, while damaged, alive and fixable.
ContributorsGavin, Stephen Christopher (Author) / Critchlow, Donald (Thesis director) / Stermetz, Catherine (Committee member) / School of Politics and Global Studies (Contributor) / School of Historical, Philosophical and Religious Studies (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2015-12
Description
Petr Kropotkin proposed the theory of Pleistocene ice age, alternative theories of evolution based on embryology, and he advocated anarchist and communist social doctrines in Europe during the nineteenth and twentieth centuries. He traveled in eastern Siberia and Manchuria from 1863 until 1867, and his subsequent publications about that area's geography became authoritative until the middle of the twentieth century. Kropotkin argued that his geographic and geologic observations in Asia, Finland, Sweden, and Canada, supported the theory of Pleistocene continental glaciation, often called the ice age. He was one of the first to study the ancient geography and climate of the Quaternary period, which spans from 2.5 million years ago until the present. Around the turn of the nineteenth century, Kropotkin offered what he said were complementary amendments to Charles Darwin's 1859 theory of evolution by natural selection. Kropotkin employed a variety of arguments from natural history, embryology, and geography to support his theory of mutual aid, which he argued was a positive mechanistic addition to the theory of evolution.
ContributorsLaTourelle, Jonathan (Author) / Turriziani Colonna, Federica (Editor) / Elliott, Steve (Editor) / Arizona State University. School of Life Sciences. Center for Biology and Society. Embryo Project Encyclopedia. (Publisher) / Arizona Board of Regents (Publisher)
Created2015-06-01