Matching Items (6)
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- All Subjects: Substrates
- Creators: Hertzel, Michael
Description
In this dissertation, I examine the source of some of the anomalous capital market outcomes that have been documented for firms with high accruals. Chapter 2 develops and implements a methodology that decomposes a firm's discretionary accruals into a firm-specific and an industry-specific component. I use this decomposition to investigate which component drives the subsequent negative returns associated with firms with high discretionary accruals. My results suggest that these abnormal returns are driven by the firm-specific component of discretionary accruals. Moreover, although industry-specific discretionary accruals do not directly contribute towards this anomaly, I find that it is precisely when industry-specific discretionary accruals are high that firms with high firm-specific discretionary accruals subsequently earn these negative returns. While consistent with irrational mispricing or a rational risk premium associated with high discretionary accruals, these findings also support a transactions-cost based explanation for the accruals anomaly whereby search costs associated with distinguishing between value-relevant and manipulative discretionary accruals can induce investors to overlook potential earnings manipulation. Chapter 3 extends the decomposition to examine the role of firm-specific and industry-specific discretionary accruals in explaining the subsequent market underperformance and negative analysts' forecast errors documented for firms issuing equity. I examine the post-issue market returns and analysts' forecast errors for a sample of seasoned equity issues between 1975 and 2004 and find that offering-year firm-specific discretionary accruals can partially explain these anomalous capital market outcomes. Nonetheless, I find this predictive power of firm-specific accruals to be more pronounced for issues that occur during 1975 - 1989 compared to issues taking place between 1990 and 2004. Additionally, I find no evidence that investors and analysts are more overoptimistic about the prospects of issuers that have both high firm-specific and industry-specific discretionary accruals (compared to firms with high discretionary accruals in general). The results indicate no role for industry-specific discretionary accruals in explaining overoptimistic expectations from seasoned equity issues and suggest the importance of firm-specific factors in inducing earnings manipulation surrounding equity issues.
ContributorsIkram, Atif (Author) / Coles, Jeffrey (Thesis advisor) / Hertzel, Michael (Committee member) / Tserlukevich, Yuri (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2011
Description
One necessary condition for the two-pass risk premium estimator to be consistent and asymptotically normal is that the rank of the beta matrix in a proposed linear asset pricing model is full column. I first investigate the asymptotic properties of the risk premium estimators and the related t-test and Wald test statistics when the full rank condition fails. I show that the beta risk of useless factors or multiple proxy factors for a true factor are priced more often than they should be at the nominal size in the asset pricing models omitting some true factors. While under the null hypothesis that the risk premiums of the true factors are equal to zero, the beta risk of the true factors are priced less often than the nominal size. The simulation results are consistent with the theoretical findings. Hence, the factor selection in a proposed factor model should not be made solely based on their estimated risk premiums. In response to this problem, I propose an alternative estimation of the underlying factor structure. Specifically, I propose to use the linear combination of factors weighted by the eigenvectors of the inner product of estimated beta matrix. I further propose a new method to estimate the rank of the beta matrix in a factor model. For this method, the idiosyncratic components of asset returns are allowed to be correlated both over different cross-sectional units and over different time periods. The estimator I propose is easy to use because it is computed with the eigenvalues of the inner product of an estimated beta matrix. Simulation results show that the proposed method works well even in small samples. The analysis of US individual stock returns suggests that there are six common risk factors in US individual stock returns among the thirteen factor candidates used. The analysis of portfolio returns reveals that the estimated number of common factors changes depending on how the portfolios are constructed. The number of risk sources found from the analysis of portfolio returns is generally smaller than the number found in individual stock returns.
ContributorsWang, Na (Author) / Ahn, Seung C. (Thesis advisor) / Kallberg, Jarl G. (Committee member) / Liu, Crocker H. (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2011
Description
Our thesis project aims to evaluate a major semiconductor company's (The Company) substrate supplier strategy in order to find the ideal number of suppliers that minimizes fixed cost and supplier power. With The Company spending roughly $2.2 billion annually on substrates, supplier strategy has a significant impact on their costs. As a general rule in micro processing, the circuitry of the processor becomes twice as dense every two years. The substrate, being the pathway through which the process or with the motherboard, must become more advanced as well, although the technology does not grow at nearly the same speed. Leading the way in their industry, The Company is at the forefront of technology and produces the world's most advanced processing units. The suppliers The Company purchases from must be innovators in their own respective fields in order to be capable of handling such "bleeding-edge" technology; this requires a supplier to make a commitment to continuously work towards meeting The Company's constantly changing technological requirements. The ultimate goal of this project is to determine the ideal number of substrate suppliers that balances the effects of production costs and buying power to give the company the best overall purchase price.
ContributorsWright, Brian (Author) / Hertzel, Michael (Thesis director) / Simonson, Mark (Committee member) / Shirts, John (Committee member) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2012-05
Description
A systematic top down approach to minimize risk and maximize the profits of an investment over a given period of time is proposed. Macroeconomic factors such as Gross Domestic Product (GDP), Consumer Price Index (CPI), Outstanding Consumer Credit, Industrial Production Index, Money Supply (MS), Unemployment Rate, and Ten-Year Treasury are used to predict/estimate asset (sector ETF`s) returns. Fundamental ratios of individual stocks are used to predict the stock returns. An a priori known cash-flow sequence is assumed available for investment. Given the importance of sector performance on stock performance, sector based Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) for the S&P; and Dow Jones are considered and wealth is allocated. Mean variance optimization with risk and return constraints are used to distribute the wealth in individual sectors among the selected stocks. The results presented should be viewed as providing an outer control/decision loop generating sector target allocations that will ultimately drive an inner control/decision loop focusing on stock selection. Receding horizon control (RHC) ideas are exploited to pose and solve two relevant constrained optimization problems. First, the classic problem of wealth maximization subject to risk constraints (as measured by a metric on the covariance matrices) is considered. Special consideration is given to an optimization problem that attempts to minimize the peak risk over the prediction horizon, while trying to track a wealth objective. It is concluded that this approach may be particularly beneficial during downturns - appreciably limiting downside during downturns while providing most of the upside during upturns. Investment in stocks during upturns and in sector ETF`s during downturns is profitable.
ContributorsChitturi, Divakar (Author) / Rodriguez, Armando (Thesis advisor) / Tsakalis, Konstantinos S (Committee member) / Si, Jennie (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2010
Description
This paper serves as an analysis of the current operational conditions of a real-world company – referred to as “Company X” – with respect to the IC substrate industry. The cost of substrates, a crucial component in the production of Company X’s product, has recently diverged from Company X’s predictions and is contributing to declining profitability. This analysis aims to discover the underlying cause for price divergence and recommend potential resolutions to improve the forecast of substrate costs and profitability. The paper is organized as follows: Chapter 1 is an introduction to IC substrates and the industry as a whole, Chapter 2 is a breakdown of the specific factors responsible for substrate prices, and Chapter 3 delivers a final recommendation to Company X and concludes the paper.
ContributorsAggarwal, Bianca (Author) / Guillaume, Riley (Co-author) / O'Loughlin, Connor (Co-author) / Fares, Ari (Co-author) / King, Camden (Co-author) / Simonson, Mark (Thesis director) / Hertzel, Michael (Committee member) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor) / Department of Finance (Contributor) / Department of Information Systems (Contributor)
Created2023-05
Description
This paper serves as an analysis of the current operational conditions of a real-world company – referred to as “Company X” – with respect to the IC substrate industry. The cost of substrates, a crucial component in the production of Company X’s product, has recently diverged from Company X’s predictions and is contributing to declining profitability. This analysis aims to discover the underlying cause for price divergence and recommend potential resolutions to improve the forecast of substrate costs and profitability. The paper is organized as follows: Chapter 1 is an introduction to IC substrates and the industry as a whole, Chapter 2 is a breakdown of the specific factors responsible for substrate prices, and Chapter 3 delivers a final recommendation to Company X and concludes the paper.
ContributorsFares, Ariya (Ari) (Author) / O’Loughlin, Connor (Co-author) / Guillaume, Riley (Co-author) / Aggarwal, Bianca (Co-author) / King, Camden (Co-author) / Simonson, Mark (Thesis director) / Hertzel, Michael (Committee member) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor) / Department of Finance (Contributor)
Created2023-05