Matching Items (3)
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- All Subjects: Optimal Control
- Creators: Towers, Sherry
- Creators: Bertsekas, Dimitri P
Description
Public mass shootings occur at a rate in the U.S. that is higher than any other developed country. These event initiate wide spread media attention. The media attention these events achieve have shown to impact the public behavior (e.g., increased firearm sales). However, the impact public mass shootings have on firearm storage and carry habits of the public is not well understood. Using data collected from the Transportation Security Administration, this study examines how mass shootings have led to moral panics occurring within the U.S. through the examination of the firearm carrying habits among the population immediately following mass shootings. The results indicate that loaded firearms with rounds in the chamber detected by the TSA have significantly increased since 2012. Further, firearms detected immediately following a public mass shooting had a higher proportion of firearms loaded with a round in the chamber relative to 7 days prior to the shooting. Moreover, the increase in proportions of firearms found loaded with a round in the chamber exponentially decays as days past the initial shooting, these events occur at a higher rate than the decay rate can normalize these occurrences. I conclude that in the wake of these shootings a moral panic ensues that is partially responsible for the change in the general public’s arming configuration habits. Further research is needed in to determine the impact on crime, and public health related issues due to this change in the public’s firearm carrying habits.
ContributorsCordova, Richard Donald (Author) / Reisig, Michael (Thesis advisor) / Towers, Sherry (Committee member) / Wang, Xia (Committee member) / Holtfreter, Kristy (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2018
Description
This dissertation discusses continuous-time reinforcement learning (CT-RL) for control of affine nonlinear systems. Continuous-time nonlinear optimal control problems hold great promise in real-world applications. After decades of development, reinforcement learning (RL) has achieved some of the greatest successes as a general nonlinear control design method. Yet as RL control has developed, CT-RL results have greatly lagged their discrete-time RL (DT-RL) counterparts, especially in regards to real-world applications. Current CT-RL algorithms generally fall into two classes: adaptive dynamic programming (ADP), and actor-critic deep RL (DRL). The first school of ADP methods features elegant theoretical results stemming from adaptive and optimal control. Yet, they have not been shown effectively synthesizing meaningful controllers. The second school of DRL has shown impressive learning solutions, yet theoretical guarantees are still to be developed. A substantive analysis uncovering the quantitative causes of the fundamental gap between CT and DT remains to be conducted. Thus, this work develops a first-of-its kind quantitative evaluation framework to diagnose the performance limitations of the leading CT-RL methods. This dissertation also introduces a suite of new CT-RL algorithms which offers both theoretical and synthesis guarantees. The proposed design approach relies on three important factors. First, for physical systems that feature physically-motivated dynamical partitions into distinct loops, the proposed decentralization method breaks the optimal control problem into smaller subproblems. Second, the work introduces a new excitation framework to improve persistence of excitation (PE) and numerical conditioning via classical input/output insights. Third, the method scales the learning problem via design-motivated invertible transformations of the system state variables in order to modulate the algorithm learning regression for further increases in numerical stability. This dissertation introduces a suite of (decentralized) excitable integral reinforcement learning (EIRL) algorithms implementing these paradigms. It rigorously proves convergence, optimality, and closed-loop stability guarantees of the proposed methods, which are demonstrated in comprehensive comparative studies with the leading methods in ADP on a significant application problem of controlling an unstable, nonminimum phase hypersonic vehicle (HSV). It also conducts comprehensive comparative studies with the leading DRL methods on three state-of-the-art (SOTA) environments, revealing new performance/design insights.
ContributorsWallace, Brent Abraham (Author) / Si, Jennie (Thesis advisor) / Berman, Spring M (Committee member) / Bertsekas, Dimitri P (Committee member) / Tsakalis, Konstantinos S (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2024
Description
The 2009-10 influenza and the 2014-15 Ebola pandemics brought once again urgency to an old question: What are the limits on prediction and what can be proposed that is useful in the face of an epidemic outbreak?
This thesis looks first at the impact that limited access to vaccine stockpiles may have on a single influenza outbreak. The purpose is to highlight the challenges faced by populations embedded in inadequate health systems and to identify and assess ways of ameliorating the impact of resource limitations on public health policy.
Age-specific per capita constraint rates play an important role on the dynamics of communicable diseases and, influenza is, of course, no exception. Yet the challenges associated with estimating age-specific contact rates have not been decisively met. And so, this thesis attempts to connect contact theory with age-specific contact data in the context of influenza outbreaks in practical ways. In mathematical epidemiology, proportionate mixing is used as the preferred theoretical mixing structure and so, the frame of discussion of this dissertation follows this specific theoretical framework. The questions that drive this dissertation, in the context of influenza dynamics, proportionate mixing, and control, are:
I. What is the role of age-aggregation on the dynamics of a single outbreak? Or simply speaking, does the number and length of the age-classes used to model a population make a significant difference on quantitative predictions?
II. What would the age-specific optimal influenza vaccination policies be? Or, what are the age-specific vaccination policies needed to control an outbreak in the presence of limited or unlimited vaccine stockpiles?
Intertwined with the above questions are issues of resilience and uncertainty including, whether or not data collected on mixing (by social scientists) can be used effectively to address both questions in the context of influenza and proportionate mixing. The objective is to provide answers to these questions by assessing the role of aggregation (number and length of age classes) and model robustness (does the aggregation scheme selected makes a difference on influenza dynamics and control) via comparisons between purely data-driven model and proportionate mixing models.
This thesis looks first at the impact that limited access to vaccine stockpiles may have on a single influenza outbreak. The purpose is to highlight the challenges faced by populations embedded in inadequate health systems and to identify and assess ways of ameliorating the impact of resource limitations on public health policy.
Age-specific per capita constraint rates play an important role on the dynamics of communicable diseases and, influenza is, of course, no exception. Yet the challenges associated with estimating age-specific contact rates have not been decisively met. And so, this thesis attempts to connect contact theory with age-specific contact data in the context of influenza outbreaks in practical ways. In mathematical epidemiology, proportionate mixing is used as the preferred theoretical mixing structure and so, the frame of discussion of this dissertation follows this specific theoretical framework. The questions that drive this dissertation, in the context of influenza dynamics, proportionate mixing, and control, are:
I. What is the role of age-aggregation on the dynamics of a single outbreak? Or simply speaking, does the number and length of the age-classes used to model a population make a significant difference on quantitative predictions?
II. What would the age-specific optimal influenza vaccination policies be? Or, what are the age-specific vaccination policies needed to control an outbreak in the presence of limited or unlimited vaccine stockpiles?
Intertwined with the above questions are issues of resilience and uncertainty including, whether or not data collected on mixing (by social scientists) can be used effectively to address both questions in the context of influenza and proportionate mixing. The objective is to provide answers to these questions by assessing the role of aggregation (number and length of age classes) and model robustness (does the aggregation scheme selected makes a difference on influenza dynamics and control) via comparisons between purely data-driven model and proportionate mixing models.
ContributorsMorales, Romarie (Author) / Castillo-Chavez, Carlos (Thesis advisor) / Mubayi, Anuj (Thesis advisor) / Towers, Sherry (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2016