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Research on California water markets has historically made two inaccurate assumptions regarding water rights: that water is a one-dimensional commodity, and that every water rights holder is in the market to sell. In reality, water is a bundled good that comprises varying attributes, and the decision to become a seller

Research on California water markets has historically made two inaccurate assumptions regarding water rights: that water is a one-dimensional commodity, and that every water rights holder is in the market to sell. In reality, water is a bundled good that comprises varying attributes, and the decision to become a seller often has more to do with politics than price. This thesis analyzes the heterogeneous dimensions of a water right to explain the evolution of supply, demand, and price in California water markets. A dataset of 712 short-term surface water transfers in California from the period of 1990 through 2016 is analyzed to explain market trends and model the price of water. The data comes from a proprietary dataset of water transfers provided by WestWater Research, LLC (WestWater). Transfer data is distinguished based on variables such as buyer and seller experience, perennial crop plantings, seasonal timing of sale, buyer and seller region, water-year type, and end use. A variety of figures present summary statistics of the data. Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) regression is used to identify variables that are statistically significant in estimating the unit price of water in dollars per acre-foot ($/AF). The regression shows that State Water Bank (SWB) purchases, Environmental Water Account (EWA) purchases, environmental end use, North of Delta (NOD) seller location, the San Joaquin Valley Water-Year Index (San Joaquin Index), total perennial crop acreage, and purchases made by South Coast buyers were statistically significant at the 95% or 99% confidence interval. These variables were included in the final econometric model to estimate price.
ContributorsArnao, Audrey Louise (Author) / Hanemann, Michael (Thesis director) / Payne, Matthew (Committee member) / W.P. Carey School of Business (Contributor) / Department of Economics (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2018-05
Description

Water markets are a promising method for adapting to water scarcity in the western United States, and the Colorado-Big Thompson Project (CBT) market is often held up as a prime example of their potential. While much has been written about the CBT market, the current academic literature tends to eschew

Water markets are a promising method for adapting to water scarcity in the western United States, and the Colorado-Big Thompson Project (CBT) market is often held up as a prime example of their potential. While much has been written about the CBT market, the current academic literature tends to eschew structural modeling of supply and demand in favor of fitting hedonic price equations, which ignore many of the market’s unique characteristics. This paper proposes a model of supply and demand for CBT water which accounts for these unique features, including transaction supply, municipality stockpiling, and differences in behavior across different types of water users. The estimation of this model is made possible by novel administrative records data on both transfers and ownership of CBT water, the processing and features of which are described in detail. While the voluminous and messy nature of the data has prevented complete estimation of the model at this point, some preliminary results are presented along with a plan for future work.

Created2022-12