Matching Items (5)
Filtering by

Clear all filters

133403-Thumbnail Image.png
Description
The use of generalized linear models in loss reserving is not new; many statistical models have been developed to fit the loss data gathered by various insurance companies. The most popular models belong to what Glen Barnett and Ben Zehnwirth in "Best Estimates for Reserves" call the "extended link ratio

The use of generalized linear models in loss reserving is not new; many statistical models have been developed to fit the loss data gathered by various insurance companies. The most popular models belong to what Glen Barnett and Ben Zehnwirth in "Best Estimates for Reserves" call the "extended link ratio family (ELRF)," as they are developed from the chain ladder algorithm used by actuaries to estimate unpaid claims. Although these models are intuitive and easy to implement, they are nevertheless flawed because many of the assumptions behind the models do not hold true when fitted with real-world data. Even more problematically, the ELRF cannot account for environmental changes like inflation which are often observed in the status quo. Barnett and Zehnwirth conclude that a new set of models that contain parameters for not only accident year and development period trends but also payment year trends would be a more accurate predictor of loss development. This research applies the paper's ideas to data gathered by Company XYZ. The data was fitted with an adapted version of Barnett and Zehnwirth's new model in R, and a trend selection algorithm was developed to accompany the regression code. The final forecasts were compared to Company XYZ's booked reserves to evaluate the predictive power of the model.
ContributorsZhang, Zhihan Jennifer (Author) / Milovanovic, Jelena (Thesis director) / Tomita, Melissa (Committee member) / Zicarelli, John (Committee member) / W.P. Carey School of Business (Contributor) / School of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2018-05
Description
This expository thesis explores the financial health and actuarial analysis of a particular solution for those seeking stability and security in their golden years: the CCRC industry. A continuing care retirement community, or CCRC, is a comprehensive project and campus that offers its residents a full spectrum of care from

This expository thesis explores the financial health and actuarial analysis of a particular solution for those seeking stability and security in their golden years: the CCRC industry. A continuing care retirement community, or CCRC, is a comprehensive project and campus that offers its residents a full spectrum of care from independent living, to assisted living, to skilled nursing. After reading this paper, any person with no prior knowledge of a continuing care retirement community should gain a firm understanding of the background, risks and benefits, and legislative safeguards of this complex industry. Financially, a CCRC operates in some aspects similar to long-term care (LTC) insurance. However, CCRCs provide multiple levels of care operations while maintaining a pleasant, engaging community environment where seniors can have all their lifestyle needs met. The expensive and complex operations of a CCRC are not without risk: the industry has seen marked periods of bankruptcy followed by increasing and changing regulatory oversight. Thus, CCRCs require a periodic actuarial analysis and report, among array of other legislative safeguards against bankruptcy. A CCRC's insolvency or inability to meet its obligations can be catastrophic and inflict suffering and damages not only to its residents but also their friends and families. With seniors historically being one of the most vulnerable demographic groups, it is absolutely essential that an all-encompassing care facility continues to exist and fulfill its contractual promises by maintaining sound actuarial practices and financial health. This thesis, in addition to providing an exposition of the background and functions of the CCRC, describes the existing actuarial and financial studies and audits in practice to ensure sound governance and the quality of life of CCRC residents.
ContributorsTang, Julie (Author) / Milovanovic, Jelena (Thesis director) / Hassett, Matthew J. (Committee member) / School of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2017-05
148076-Thumbnail Image.png
Description

Through research, interviews, and analysis, our paper provides the local community with a resource that offers a comprehensive collection of insight into the Mirabella at ASU Life Plan Community and the projected impact it will have on the City of Tempe and Arizona State University.

ContributorsStephens, Corey Christopher (Co-author) / Dicke, George (Co-author) / Anand, Rohan (Co-author) / Sadusky, Brian (Thesis director) / Schiller, Christoph (Committee member) / Dean, W.P. Carey School of Business (Contributor) / Department of Finance (Contributor) / Sandra Day O'Connor College of Law (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2021-05
148008-Thumbnail Image.png
Description

Through research, interviews, and analysis, our paper provides the local community with a resource that offers a comprehensive collection of insight into the Mirabella at ASU Life Plan Community and the projected impact it will have on the City of Tempe and Arizona State University.

ContributorsAnand, Rohan (Co-author) / Dicke, George (Co-author) / Stephens, Corey (Co-author) / Sadusky, Brian (Thesis director) / Schiller, Christoph (Committee member) / Dean, W.P. Carey School of Business (Contributor) / Department of Finance (Contributor) / Department of Supply Chain Management (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2021-05
Description

The Mack model and the Bootstrap Over-Dispersed Poisson model have long been the primary modeling tools used by actuaries and insurers to forecast losses. With the emergence of faster computational technology, new and novel methods to calculate and simulate data are more applicable than ever before. This paper explores the

The Mack model and the Bootstrap Over-Dispersed Poisson model have long been the primary modeling tools used by actuaries and insurers to forecast losses. With the emergence of faster computational technology, new and novel methods to calculate and simulate data are more applicable than ever before. This paper explores the use of various Bayesian Monte Carlo Markov Chain models recommended by Glenn Meyers and compares the results to the simulated data from the Mack model and the Bootstrap Over-Dispersed Poisson model. Although the Mack model and the Bootstrap Over-Dispersed Poisson model are accurate to a certain degree, newer models could be developed that may yield better results. However, a general concern is that no singular model is able to reflect underlying information that only an individual who has intimate knowledge of the data would know. Thus, the purpose of this paper is not to distinguish one model that works for all applicable data, but to propose various models that have pros and cons and suggest ways that they can be improved upon.

ContributorsZhang, Zhaobo (Author) / Zicarelli, John (Thesis director) / Milovanovic, Jelena (Committee member) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor) / School of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences (Contributor)
Created2023-05