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- All Subjects: Logistic Regression
- Creators: O'Rourke, Holly
- Creators: Wilson, Jeffrey
- Status: Published
sports, banking, and other disciplines. We use predictive analytics and modeling to
determine the impact of certain factors that increase the probability of a successful
fourth down conversion in the Power 5 conferences. The logistic regression models
predict the likelihood of going for fourth down with a 64% or more probability based on
2015-17 data obtained from ESPN’s college football API. Offense type though important
but non-measurable was incorporated as a random effect. We found that distance to go,
play type, field position, and week of the season were key leading covariates in
predictability. On average, our model performed as much as 14% better than coaches
in 2018.
We attempted to apply a novel approach to stock market predictions. The Logistic Regression machine learning algorithm (Joseph Berkson) was applied to analyze news article headlines as represented by a bag-of-words (tri-gram and single-gram) representation in an attempt to predict the trends of stock prices based on the Dow Jones Industrial Average. The results showed that a tri-gram bag led to a 49% trend accuracy, a 1% increase when compared to the single-gram representation’s accuracy of 48%.
Suicide is a significant public health problem, with incidence rates and lethality continuing to increase yearly. Given the large human and financial cost of suicide worldwide alongside the lack of progress in suicide prediction, more research is needed to inform suicide prevention and intervention efforts. This study approaches suicide from the lens of suicide note-leaving behavior, which can provide important information on predictors of suicide. Specifically, this study adds to the existing literature on note-leaving by examining history of suicidality, mental health problems, and their interaction in predicting suicide note-leaving, in addition to demographic predictors of note-leaving examined in previous research using data from the National Violent Death Reporting System (NVDRS, n = 98,515). We fit a logistic regression model predicting leaving a suicide note or not, the results of which indicated that those with mental health problems or a history of suicidality were more likely to leave a suicide note than those without such histories, and those with both mental health problems and a history of suicidality were most likely to leave a suicide note. These findings reinforce the need to tailor suicide prevention efforts toward identifying and targeting higher risk populations.