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- All Subjects: Private Equity
- All Subjects: Financial Modeling
- Creators: Simonson, Mark
Description
Social impact bonds (SIBs) are a multi-year contract between social service providers, the government, and private investors. The three parties agree on a specific outcome for a societal issue. Investors provide capital required for the service provider to operate the project. The service provider then delivers the service to the target population. The success of the project is evaluated by outside party. If the target outcome is met, the government repays the investors at a premium. Nonprofit service providers can only serve a small community as they lack the funding to scale their programs and their reliance on government funding and philanthropy leads to a lot of time focused on raising money in the short-term and inhibits them from evolving their programs and projects for long-term strategic success. Government budgets decline but social problems persist. These contracts share risk between the government and the investors and allow governments to test out programs and alleviate taxpayer burdens from unsuccessful social service programs. Arizona has a severe homelessness problem. Nightly, 6000 people are homeless in Maricopa County. In a given year, over 32,000 individuals were homeless, composed of single adults, families, children, and veterans. Homelessness is not only a debilitating and difficult experience for those who experience it, but also has considerable economic costs on society. Homeless individuals use a number of government programs beyond emergency shelters, and these can cost taxpayers billions of dollars per year. Rapid rehousing was a successful intervention model that the state has been heavily investing in the last few years. This thesis aimed to survey the Arizona climate and determine what barriers were present for enacting an SIB for homelessness. The findings showed that although there are many competent stakeholder groups, lack of interest and overall knowledge of SIBs prevented groups from taking responsibility as the anchor for such a project. Additionally, the government and nonprofits had good partnerships, but lacked relationships with the business community and investors that could propel an SIB. Finally, although rapid rehousing can be used as a successful intervention model, there are not enough years of proven success to justify the spending on an SIB. Additionally, data collection for homelessness programming needs to be standardized between all relevant partners. The framework for an SIB exists in Arizona, but needs a few more years of development before it can be considered.
ContributorsAhmed, Fabeeha (Author) / Desouza, Kevin (Thesis director) / Lucio, Joanna (Committee member) / School of Politics and Global Studies (Contributor) / Department of Economics (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2016-05
Description
Company X is one of the world's largest manufacturer of semiconductors. The company relies on various suppliers in the U.S. and around the globe for its manufacturing process. The financial health of these suppliers is vital to the continuation of Company X's business without any material interruption. Therefore, it is in Company X's interest to monitor its supplier's financial performance. Company X has a supplier financial health model currently in use. Having been developed prior to watershed events like the Great Recession, the current model may not reflect the significant changes in the economic environment due to these events. Company X wants to know if there is a more accurate model for evaluating supplier health that better indicates business risk. The scope of this project will be limited to a sample of 24 suppliers representative of Company X's supplier base that are public companies. While Company X's suppliers consist of both private and public companies, the used of exclusively public companies ensures that we will have sufficient and appropriate data for the necessary analysis. The goal of this project is to discover if there is a more accurate model for evaluating the financial health of publicly traded suppliers that better indicates business risk. Analyzing this problem will require a comprehensive understanding of various financial health models available and their components. The team will study best practice and academia. This comprehension will allow us to customize a model by incorporating metrics that allows greater accuracy in evaluating supplier financial health in accordance with Company X's values.
ContributorsLi, Tong (Co-author) / Gonzalez, Alexandra (Co-author) / Park, Zoon Beom (Co-author) / Vogelsang, Meridith (Co-author) / Simonson, Mark (Thesis director) / Hertzel, Mike (Committee member) / Department of Finance (Contributor) / Department of Information Systems (Contributor) / School of Accountancy (Contributor) / WPC Graduate Programs (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2016-05
Description
In the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis, banking regulators have been taking a more active role in pursing greater financial stability. One area of focus has been on Wall Street banks' leverage lending practices which include leveraged lending activities to fund leveraged buyouts. In March 2013, the Federal Reserve and the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency issued guidance urging banks to avoid financing leveraged buyouts in most industries that would put total debt on a company of more than six times its earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization, or Ebitda. Our research, using data on all leveraged buyouts (with EBITDA >$20 million) issued after the guidance, sets out to explain the elements banks consider when exceeding leverage limitations. Initially, we hypothesized that since deals over 6x leverage had higher amounts of debt, they were riskier deals, which would carry over to other risk measures such as yield to maturity on debt and company credit ratings. To analyze this, we obtained a large data set with all LBO deals in the past three years and ran difference-in-means tests on a number of variables such as deal size, credit rating and yield to maturity to determine if deals over 6x leverage had significantly different risk characteristics than deals under 6x leverage. Contrary to our hypothesis, we found that deals over 6x leverage had significantly less risk, mainly demonstrated by lower average YTMs, than deals under 6x. One possible explanation of this might be that banks, wanting to ensure they are not fined, will only go through with a deal over 6x leverage if other risk metrics such as yield to maturity are well below average.
ContributorsKing, Adam (Co-author) / Lukemire, Sean (Co-author) / McAleer, Stephen (Co-author) / Simonson, Mark (Thesis director) / Bonadurer, Werner (Committee member) / Department of Finance (Contributor) / Department of Economics (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2016-05
Description
"Improving Life Outcomes for Children in Arizona: Educational Social Impact Bond" is a creative project that is structured as a pitch to the Arizona Department of Education to consider social impact bonds as a way to fund pilot education programs. The pitch begins with a brief overview of the umbrella of impact investing, and then a focus on social impact bonds, an area of impact investing. A profile of Arizona's current educational rankings along with statistics are then presented, highlighting the need for an educational social impact bond to help increase achievement. The pitch then starts to focus particularly on high school drop outs and how by funding early childhood education the chances of a child graduating high school increase. An overview of existing early education social impact bonds that are enacted are then presented, followed by a possible structure for an early education social impact bond in Arizona. An analysis of the possible lifetime cost savings of investing in early childhood education are then presented, that are as a result of decreasing the amount of high school drop outs. Lastly, is a brief side-by-side comparison of the Arizona structure to the precedent social impact bonds.
ContributorsRodriguez, Karina (Author) / Simonson, Mark (Thesis director) / Trujillo, Gary (Committee member) / Department of Finance (Contributor) / School of Accountancy (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2016-05
Description
This thesis details our experience assisting BASE Equity Partners, a private equity firm based in New York City, on three prospective agricultural dealership deals over the course of this past academic year. The firm is currently structured as a Fundless Sponsor. This distinct structural trait is common for a type of private equity firm known among practitioners as pledge funds. This creates an interesting element for our experience as there is very limited academic research on these types of firms, which, since the Great Recession, have become popular players in middle-market private equity deals. We, first, provide some historical context on pledge funds and identify their primary differences with traditional private equity. The remainder of the paper documents our experience working on the agricultural dealership deals. We have organized this portion after the manner in which we received assignments. We go into detail on the specific projects with which we were tasked, our interactions with the partners and the major takeaways we had from this learning experience. This thesis paper will enrich the academic knowledge regarding pledge funds—and private equity generally—by documenting a real experience of what it is like performing analyst-level tasks at a real firm. Additionally, we were privy to information that is highly confidential, and though we have protected the confidentiality of the companies through pseudonyms and redaction of confidential material, all of the financial data shown, models provided and qualitative discussion is real.
ContributorsTang, Ivan (Co-author) / Johnson, Bradley (Co-author) / Panosian, Tro (Co-author) / Simonson, Mark (Thesis director) / Bonadurer, Werner (Committee member) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor) / Department of Finance (Contributor) / Department of English (Contributor) / School of Accountancy (Contributor) / School of International Letters and Cultures (Contributor)
Created2015-05
Description
This paper classifies private equity groups (PEGs) seeking to engage in public to private transactions (PTPs) and determines (primarily through an examination of the implied merger arbitrage spread), whether certain reputational factors associated with the private equity industry affect a firm's ability to acquire a publicly-traded company. We use a sample of 1,027 US-based take private transactions announced between January 5, 2009 and August 2, 2018, where 333 transactions consist of private-equity led take-privates, to investigate how merger arbitrage spreads, offer premiums, and deal closure are impacted based on PEG- and PTP-specific input variables. We find that the merger arbitrage spread of PEG-backed deals are 2-3% wider than strategic deals, hostile deals have a greater merger arbitrage spread, larger bid premiums widen spreads and markets accurately identify deals that will close through a narrower spread. PEG deals offer lower premiums, as well as friendly deals and larger deals. Offer premiums are 8.2% larger among deals that eventually consummate. In a logistic regression, we identified that PEG deals are less likely to close than strategic deals, however friendly deals are much more likely to close and Mega Funds are more likely to consummate deals among their PEG peers. These findings support previous research on PTP deals. The insignificance of PEG-classified variables on arbitrage spreads and premiums suggest that investors do not differentiate PEG-backed deals by PEG due to most PEGs equal ability to raise competitive financing. However, Mega Funds are more likely to close deals, and thus, we identify that merger arbitrage spreads should be narrower among this PEG classification.
ContributorsSliwicki, Austin James (Co-author) / Schifman, Eli (Co-author) / Simonson, Mark (Thesis director) / Hertzel, Michael (Committee member) / Department of Economics (Contributor) / School of Accountancy (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2019-05
Description
The global network, serving as the backbone of the Internet and the flow of all digital information, has evolved since the birth of the internet in 1983 1. From the first generation of networks that supported the first cell phones, the system has matured to the existing fourth generation (4G), providing greater speed and expanded capabilities beyond basic calling and texting. The goal of our project was to identify how well Company X is positioned to capitalize on the transition to 5G, which will involve almost twice the amount of interconnected devices than today. To do this, we completed the following various tasks: 1. Identify the networking segments to focus our research. 2. Identify the major customers in these segments and how much of the market share each occupies. 3. Analyze the major benchmarks and metrics these customers value when purchasing the microprocessors for their networking devices. 4. Identify Company X's major competitors and their comparable products. 5. Compare the benchmark performances of Company X's offerings and its competitors 6. Create a model that provides a 5-year NPV as well as Company X's market share 7. Employ this model to evaluate various pricing strategies. 8. Determine the optimal pricing strategy and make a final recommendation. As 5G evolves, the demand for high-quality, low-power networking devices (e.g. routers, switches, access points) will increase. After performing our analyses, we will be able to decide how Company X's networking-oriented SoCs (chipset) compare to those of the other major competitors and use this relative performance to determine an appropriate ASP (average selling price) for these SoCs.
ContributorsDimitroff, Alex (Co-author) / Arias, Stephen (Co-author) / Masson, Taylor (Co-author) / McCall, Kyle (Co-author) / Hardy, Sebastian (Co-author) / Simonson, Mark (Thesis director) / Haller, Marcie (Committee member) / Department of Finance (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2018-05
Description
The following thesis discusses the primary drivers of value creation in a leveraged buyout. Value creation is defined by two broad criteria: enterprise value creation and financial value creation. With enterprise value creation, the company itself may be improved, which in turn may have positive implications on the economy at large. As the analysis of enterprise value creation is outside the scope of publicly available information and data, the core focus of this thesis is financial value creation. Financial value creation is defined as the financial returns to a given private equity firm. Amongst this segment of value creation, there are roughly three primary categories responsible for generating returns: financial engineering, governance improvements, and operational improvements. The attached literature review and subsequent chapters of this thesis discuss the academic drivers of value creation and the outputs of a leveraged buyout model conducted on a public company, Schnitzer Steel, that has been determined to be an ideal candidate for a buyout.
ContributorsAlivarius, Chadwick (Author) / Simonson, Mark (Thesis director) / Stein, Luke (Committee member) / Department of Finance (Contributor) / Department of Economics (Contributor) / Dean, W.P. Carey School of Business (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2019-05
Description
Leveraged buyouts have gone in and out of popularity over the last four decades. The first wave began in the 1980's with the rising popularity of junk bonds, followed by years of economic downturn, and then a rise and respective fall from the dot com era. However, in the 2000's, attitudes were high and a period of low interest rates, covenant-lite loans, and relaxed lending conditions gave rise to some of the largest leveraged buyouts in US history. As the name implies, leveraged buyouts are predominantly structured with debt, around 70% of the total transaction value. Private equity firms execute leveraged buyouts on companies in strong industries, who have proven, stable cash flows, with the intent of cutting costs, divesting unneeded assets, and making the chain more efficient. After a time period of five to seven years, the private equity firm exits the deal through an initial public offering of the target company, a sale to another buyer, or dividend recapitalization. The Blackstone Group is one of the largest private equity firms in the US, and, with the favorable leveraged buyout conditions, especially in the real estate market, it wanted to build its real estate portfolio with an acquisition of Hilton Hotels & Resorts. At the time of consideration, Hilton was one of the largest hotel companies in the world, but was beginning to lag compared to its competitors Marriott and Starwood. After months of talks, Hilton agreed to be bought out by Blackstone at $47.50/share, for a total purchase price of $26bn. Blackstone had injected $5.7 of its own equity into the deal. The Great Recession caused a lot of investors to worry about Hilton's debt obligations, and Blackstone was able to restructure a significant portion of the debt to benefit both themselves and their creditors. As new CEO, Christopher J. Nassetta was able to strengthen Hilton by rearranging management, increasing franchising fees, expanding its capital-lite segments, and building more rooms internationally, Hilton was able to grow quicker than its competitors from 2007-2013 while minimizing operating expenses. On December 2, 2013, Hilton went public on the NYSE as HLT. Its enterprise value increased from $26bn to $33bn, and Blackstone was able to achieve an internal rate of return of 19%, while continuing to own 75% of Hilton's shares.
ContributorsNelson, Corey Mitchell (Author) / Simonson, Mark (Thesis director) / Aragon, George (Committee member) / School of Accountancy (Contributor) / Department of Finance (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2017-05
Description
We chose to analyze Apple's current cash and cash equivalents balance of $246.1 billion. To fully understand how to maximize Apple's investment using this cash balance, we performed detailed due diligence on the company. We analyzed the history of apple, a timeline of their major product releases, their financial statements, product mix, and the industries in which they operate. This allowed us to gain a deeper understanding of available opportunities. After doing our due diligence on the company, we look at their current cash levels and potential reasons that the cash balance has been increasing so quickly. Another component of their cash balance is the implications of a tax holiday for repatriation, so we also looked at the potential effects of this on Apple's cash balance. Finally, we begin the main portion of our project where look at the six potential options for the cash. We cover share buybacks, dividends or a special dividend, paying down debt, investing in research and development, making a large acquisition, or continuing to build a high cash balance. We pull data on each of these, look at financial metrics and many different numbers to evaluate which of these six options would maximize shareholder value. A large portion of our work was spent looking at acquisition targets. We finally vetted three potential targets: Tesla, Netflix, and Disney. These companies made sense for a number of different qualitative reasons, but after looking at them from a financial standpoint we concluded Disney was the only company worth modeling out. A detailed financial model was built on Disney to find a purchase price. Included in this was a discounted cash flow analysis, comparable company's analysis, analyzing precedent transactions, and then finding an enterprise value based on the model. We also built an accretion dilution model to see what the effect on earnings per share is and also what the combined entity would look like. In order to present our findings, we built a pitch book. A pitch book is the standard type of presentation that investment banks use in order to show their recommendations to companies.
ContributorsMuscheid, Michael (Co-author) / Klein, Matthew (Co-author) / Lauro, John (Co-author) / Gagner, Landon (Co-author) / Simonson, Mark (Thesis director) / Stein, Luke (Committee member) / Department of Economics (Contributor) / Department of Finance (Contributor) / School of Accountancy (Contributor) / W. P. Carey School of Business (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2017-05