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Description
The main objective of this research is to develop an integrated method to study emergent behavior and consequences of evolution and adaptation in engineered complex adaptive systems (ECASs). A multi-layer conceptual framework and modeling approach including behavioral and structural aspects is provided to describe the structure of a class of

The main objective of this research is to develop an integrated method to study emergent behavior and consequences of evolution and adaptation in engineered complex adaptive systems (ECASs). A multi-layer conceptual framework and modeling approach including behavioral and structural aspects is provided to describe the structure of a class of engineered complex systems and predict their future adaptive patterns. The approach allows the examination of complexity in the structure and the behavior of components as a result of their connections and in relation to their environment. This research describes and uses the major differences of natural complex adaptive systems (CASs) with artificial/engineered CASs to build a framework and platform for ECAS. While this framework focuses on the critical factors of an engineered system, it also enables one to synthetically employ engineering and mathematical models to analyze and measure complexity in such systems. In this way concepts of complex systems science are adapted to management science and system of systems engineering. In particular an integrated consumer-based optimization and agent-based modeling (ABM) platform is presented that enables managers to predict and partially control patterns of behaviors in ECASs. Demonstrated on the U.S. electricity markets, ABM is integrated with normative and subjective decision behavior recommended by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) and Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC). The approach integrates social networks, social science, complexity theory, and diffusion theory. Furthermore, it has unique and significant contribution in exploring and representing concrete managerial insights for ECASs and offering new optimized actions and modeling paradigms in agent-based simulation.
ContributorsHaghnevis, Moeed (Author) / Askin, Ronald G. (Thesis advisor) / Armbruster, Dieter (Thesis advisor) / Mirchandani, Pitu (Committee member) / Wu, Tong (Committee member) / Hedman, Kory (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2013
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Description
Modern measurement schemes for linear dynamical systems are typically designed so that different sensors can be scheduled to be used at each time step. To determine which sensors to use, various metrics have been suggested. One possible such metric is the observability of the system. Observability is a binary condition

Modern measurement schemes for linear dynamical systems are typically designed so that different sensors can be scheduled to be used at each time step. To determine which sensors to use, various metrics have been suggested. One possible such metric is the observability of the system. Observability is a binary condition determining whether a finite number of measurements suffice to recover the initial state. However to employ observability for sensor scheduling, the binary definition needs to be expanded so that one can measure how observable a system is with a particular measurement scheme, i.e. one needs a metric of observability. Most methods utilizing an observability metric are about sensor selection and not for sensor scheduling. In this dissertation we present a new approach to utilize the observability for sensor scheduling by employing the condition number of the observability matrix as the metric and using column subset selection to create an algorithm to choose which sensors to use at each time step. To this end we use a rank revealing QR factorization algorithm to select sensors. Several numerical experiments are used to demonstrate the performance of the proposed scheme.
ContributorsIlkturk, Utku (Author) / Gelb, Anne (Thesis advisor) / Platte, Rodrigo (Thesis advisor) / Cochran, Douglas (Committee member) / Renaut, Rosemary (Committee member) / Armbruster, Dieter (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2015
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Description
Understanding the graphical structure of the electric power system is important

in assessing reliability, robustness, and the risk of failure of operations of this criti-

cal infrastructure network. Statistical graph models of complex networks yield much

insight into the underlying processes that are supported by the network. Such gen-

erative graph models are also

Understanding the graphical structure of the electric power system is important

in assessing reliability, robustness, and the risk of failure of operations of this criti-

cal infrastructure network. Statistical graph models of complex networks yield much

insight into the underlying processes that are supported by the network. Such gen-

erative graph models are also capable of generating synthetic graphs representative

of the real network. This is particularly important since the smaller number of tradi-

tionally available test systems, such as the IEEE systems, have been largely deemed

to be insucient for supporting large-scale simulation studies and commercial-grade

algorithm development. Thus, there is a need for statistical generative models of

electric power network that capture both topological and electrical properties of the

network and are scalable.

Generating synthetic network graphs that capture key topological and electrical

characteristics of real-world electric power systems is important in aiding widespread

and accurate analysis of these systems. Classical statistical models of graphs, such as

small-world networks or Erd}os-Renyi graphs, are unable to generate synthetic graphs

that accurately represent the topology of real electric power networks { networks

characterized by highly dense local connectivity and clustering and sparse long-haul

links.

This thesis presents a parametrized model that captures the above-mentioned

unique topological properties of electric power networks. Specically, a new Cluster-

and-Connect model is introduced to generate synthetic graphs using these parameters.

Using a uniform set of metrics proposed in the literature, the accuracy of the proposed

model is evaluated by comparing the synthetic models generated for specic real

electric network graphs. In addition to topological properties, the electrical properties

are captured via line impedances that have been shown to be modeled reliably by well-studied heavy tailed distributions. The details of the research, results obtained and

conclusions drawn are presented in this document.
ContributorsHu, Jiale (Author) / Sankar, Lalitha (Thesis advisor) / Vittal, Vijay (Committee member) / Scaglione, Anna (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2015
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Description
The Kuramoto model is an archetypal model for studying synchronization in groups

of nonidentical oscillators where oscillators are imbued with their own frequency and

coupled with other oscillators though a network of interactions. As the coupling

strength increases, there is a bifurcation to complete synchronization where all oscillators

move with the same frequency and

The Kuramoto model is an archetypal model for studying synchronization in groups

of nonidentical oscillators where oscillators are imbued with their own frequency and

coupled with other oscillators though a network of interactions. As the coupling

strength increases, there is a bifurcation to complete synchronization where all oscillators

move with the same frequency and show a collective rhythm. Kuramoto-like

dynamics are considered a relevant model for instabilities of the AC-power grid which

operates in synchrony under standard conditions but exhibits, in a state of failure,

segmentation of the grid into desynchronized clusters.

In this dissertation the minimum coupling strength required to ensure total frequency

synchronization in a Kuramoto system, called the critical coupling, is investigated.

For coupling strength below the critical coupling, clusters of oscillators form

where oscillators within a cluster are on average oscillating with the same long-term

frequency. A unified order parameter based approach is developed to create approximations

of the critical coupling. Some of the new approximations provide strict lower

bounds for the critical coupling. In addition, these approximations allow for predictions

of the partially synchronized clusters that emerge in the bifurcation from the

synchronized state.

Merging the order parameter approach with graph theoretical concepts leads to a

characterization of this bifurcation as a weighted graph partitioning problem on an

arbitrary networks which then leads to an optimization problem that can efficiently

estimate the partially synchronized clusters. Numerical experiments on random Kuramoto

systems show the high accuracy of these methods. An interpretation of the

methods in the context of power systems is provided.
ContributorsGilg, Brady (Author) / Armbruster, Dieter (Thesis advisor) / Mittelmann, Hans (Committee member) / Scaglione, Anna (Committee member) / Strogatz, Steven (Committee member) / Welfert, Bruno (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2018
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DescriptionUnderstanding the evolution of opinions is a delicate task as the dynamics of how one changes their opinion based on their interactions with others are unclear.
ContributorsWeber, Dylan (Author) / Motsch, Sebastien (Thesis advisor) / Lanchier, Nicolas (Committee member) / Platte, Rodrigo (Committee member) / Armbruster, Dieter (Committee member) / Fricks, John (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2021
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Description
Two thirds of the U.S. power systems are operated under market structures. A good market design should maximize social welfare and give market participants proper incentives to follow market solutions. Pricing schemes play very important roles in market design.

Locational marginal pricing scheme is the core pricing scheme in energy markets.

Two thirds of the U.S. power systems are operated under market structures. A good market design should maximize social welfare and give market participants proper incentives to follow market solutions. Pricing schemes play very important roles in market design.

Locational marginal pricing scheme is the core pricing scheme in energy markets. Locational marginal prices are good pricing signals for dispatch marginal costs. However, the locational marginal prices alone are not incentive compatible since energy markets are non-convex markets. Locational marginal prices capture dispatch costs but fail to capture commitment costs such as startup cost, no-load cost, and shutdown cost. As a result, uplift payments are paid to generators in markets in order to provide incentives for generators to follow market solutions. The uplift payments distort pricing signals.

In this thesis, pricing schemes in electric energy markets are studied. In the first part, convex hull pricing scheme is studied and the pricing model is extended with network constraints. The subgradient algorithm is applied to solve the pricing model. In the second part, a stochastic dispatchable pricing model is proposed to better address the non-convexity and uncertainty issues in day-ahead energy markets. In the third part, an energy storage arbitrage model with the current locational marginal price scheme is studied. Numerical test cases are studied to show the arguments in this thesis.

The overall market and pricing scheme design is a very complex problem. This thesis gives a thorough overview of pricing schemes in day-ahead energy markets and addressed several key issues in the markets. New pricing schemes are proposed to improve market efficiency.
ContributorsLi, Chao (Author) / Hedman, Kory (Thesis advisor) / Sankar, Lalitha (Committee member) / Scaglione, Anna (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2016