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Merging prospect theory with the analytic hierarchy process: applications to technology markets

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This thesis presents a model for the buying behavior of consumers in a technology market. In this model, a potential consumer is not perfectly rational, but exhibits bounded rationality following the axioms of prospect theory: reference dependence, diminishing returns and loss sensitivity. To evaluate the products on different criteria, the…

This thesis presents a model for the buying behavior of consumers in a technology market. In this model, a potential consumer is not perfectly rational, but exhibits bounded rationality following the axioms of prospect theory: reference dependence, diminishing returns and loss sensitivity. To evaluate the products on different criteria, the analytic hierarchy process is used, which allows for relative comparisons. The analytic hierarchy process proposes that when making a choice between several alternatives, one should measure the products by comparing them relative to each other. This allows the user to put numbers to subjective criteria. Additionally, evidence suggests that a consumer will often consider not only their own evaluation of a product, but also the choices of other consumers. Thus, the model in this paper applies prospect theory to products with multiple attributes using word of mouth as a criteria in the evaluation.
ContributorsElkholy, Alexander (Author) / Armbruster, Dieter (Thesis advisor) / Kempf, Karl (Committee member) / Li, Hongmin (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2014
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It Takes Five: Basketball Teams Using Network Metrics

Description
Analytic research on basketball games is growing quickly, specifically in the National Basketball Association. This paper explored the development of this analytic research and discovered that there has been a focus on individual player metrics and a dearth of quantitative team characterizations and evaluations. Consequently, this paper continued the exploratory…

Analytic research on basketball games is growing quickly, specifically in the National Basketball Association. This paper explored the development of this analytic research and discovered that there has been a focus on individual player metrics and a dearth of quantitative team characterizations and evaluations. Consequently, this paper continued the exploratory research of Fewell and Armbruster's "Basketball teams as strategic networks" (2012), which modeled basketball teams as networks and used metrics to characterize team strategy in the NBA's 2010 playoffs. Individual players and outcomes were nodes and passes and actions were the links. This paper used data that was recorded from playoff games of the two 2012 NBA finalists: the Miami Heat and the Oklahoma City Thunder. The same metrics that Fewell and Armbruster used were explained, then calculated using this data. The offensive networks of these two teams during the playoffs were analyzed and interpreted by using other data and qualitative characterization of the teams' strategies; the paper found that the calculated metrics largely matched with our qualitative characterizations of the teams. The validity of the metrics in this paper and Fewell and Armbruster's paper was then discussed, and modeling basketball teams as multiple-order Markov chains rather than as networks was explored.
ContributorsMohanraj, Hariharan (Co-author) / Choi, David (Co-author) / Armbruster, Dieter (Thesis director) / Fewell, Jennifer (Committee member) / Brooks, Daniel (Committee member) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor) / School of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences (Contributor)
Created2013-05

Data Analytics to Identify the Genetic Basis for Resilience to Temperature Stress in Soybeans

Description
This paper explores the ability to predict yields of soybeans based on genetics and environmental factors. Based on the biology of soybeans, it has been shown that yields are best when soybeans grow within a certain temperature range. The event a soybean is exposed to temperature outside their accepted range…

This paper explores the ability to predict yields of soybeans based on genetics and environmental factors. Based on the biology of soybeans, it has been shown that yields are best when soybeans grow within a certain temperature range. The event a soybean is exposed to temperature outside their accepted range is labeled as an instance of stress. Currently, there are few models that use genetic information to predict how crops may respond to stress. Using data provided by an agricultural business, a model was developed that can categorically label soybean varieties by their yield response to stress using genetic data. The model clusters varieties based on their yield production in response to stress. The clustering criteria is based on variance distribution and correlation. A logistic regression is then fitted to identify significant gene markers in varieties with minimal yield variance. Such characteristics provide a probabilistic outlook of how certain varieties will perform when planted in different regions. Given changing global climate conditions, this model demonstrates the potential of using data to efficiently develop and grow crops adjusted to climate changes.
ContributorsDean, Arlen (Co-author) / Ozcan, Ozkan (Co-author) / Travis, Daniel (Co-author) / Gel, Esma (Thesis director) / Armbruster, Dieter (Committee member) / Parry, Sam (Committee member) / Industrial, Systems and Operations Engineering Program (Contributor) / Department of Information Systems (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2018-05
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Association between Student Engagement and Resilience in the Context of COVID-19

Description

During the global COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, many universities shifted their focus to hosting classes and events online for their student population in order to keep them engaged. The present study investigated whether an association exists between student engagement (an individual’s engagement with class and campus) and resilience. A single-shot…

During the global COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, many universities shifted their focus to hosting classes and events online for their student population in order to keep them engaged. The present study investigated whether an association exists between student engagement (an individual’s engagement with class and campus) and resilience. A single-shot survey was administered to 200 participants currently enrolled as undergraduate students at Arizona State University. A multiple regression analysis and Pearson correlations were calculated. A moderate, significant correlation was found between student engagement (total score) and resilience. A significant correlation was found between cognitive engagement (student’s approach and understanding of his learning) and resilience and between valuing and resilience. Contrary to expectations, participation was not associated with resilience. Potential explanations for these results were explored and practical applications for the university were discussed.
ContributorsEmmanuelli, Michelle (Author) / Jimenez Arista, Laura (Thesis director) / Sever, Amy (Committee member) / College of Integrative Sciences and Arts (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2021-05
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Using Logistic Regression to Predict Stock Trends Based on Bag-of-Words Representations of News Article Headlines

Description

We attempted to apply a novel approach to stock market predictions. The Logistic Regression machine learning algorithm (Joseph Berkson) was applied to analyze news article headlines as represented by a bag-of-words (tri-gram and single-gram) representation in an attempt to predict the trends of stock prices based on the Dow Jones…

We attempted to apply a novel approach to stock market predictions. The Logistic Regression machine learning algorithm (Joseph Berkson) was applied to analyze news article headlines as represented by a bag-of-words (tri-gram and single-gram) representation in an attempt to predict the trends of stock prices based on the Dow Jones Industrial Average. The results showed that a tri-gram bag led to a 49% trend accuracy, a 1% increase when compared to the single-gram representation’s accuracy of 48%.
ContributorsBarolli, Adeiron (Author) / Jimenez Arista, Laura (Thesis director) / Wilson, Jeffrey (Committee member) / School of Life Sciences (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2021-05