Matching Items (7)
Filtering by

Clear all filters

135248-Thumbnail Image.png

Who Makes the NBA Leap?: Predicting the Rookie Year Performance of NBA First Round Draft Picks

Description
The NBA Draft has become one of the most exciting and unique events in sports. Draft decisions are so monumental; so crucial to be right, so disastrous to be wrong. The purpose of this project is to build a model that would help teams to predict which types of players…

The NBA Draft has become one of the most exciting and unique events in sports. Draft decisions are so monumental; so crucial to be right, so disastrous to be wrong. The purpose of this project is to build a model that would help teams to predict which types of players perform at a high level upon entering the league. By using regression analysis to predict the rookie year PER (performance efficiency rating) as a dependent variable, teams would have some idea of whether their rookies were underperforming, excelling, or performing at a level they could expect. The independent variables and their statistical significance could help answer a host of questions that front offices have about players: If a player came from a worse conference, can we expect them to have a harder time adjusting? Will their shorter wingspan have a negative effect on their play in the NBA? Do guards or forwards tend to have higher PERs upon entering the league? To answer these questions, I've gathered data on every first round NBA draft pick from 2001-2014 who played at least one season of Division 1 NCAA basketball. The data consist of anthropometric measurements (height, wingspan, standing reach, etc.), NBA draft combine results (agility drills, sprint times, etc.) and their college statistics per 40 minutes in their final season of college basketball (points, rebounds, assist-to-turnover ratio, etc.). I then separated the data into seven different sets: aggregate, backcourt, frontcourt, guard, wing, forward, and big. For each of these data sets, I built a predictive model for rookie PER. In doing so, I aimed to gain both a broad understanding of what factors lead to translation of college basketball play to professional play, and also a precise understanding of how those factors change for each distinct position.
ContributorsMurphy, Benjamin Joseph (Author) / Goegan, Brian (Thesis director) / Marburger, Daniel (Committee member) / Economics Program in CLAS (Contributor) / School of Historical, Philosophical and Religious Studies (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2016-05
134682-Thumbnail Image.png

Capping the Competition: An Analysis of the NBA's Player Salary Cap

Description
The NBA operates under a unique system with both forms of the salary cap. The league has a team salary cap that sets a limit that teams can spend on their entire roster. The NBA has a soft cap and a luxury tax system, meaning if teams spend over a…

The NBA operates under a unique system with both forms of the salary cap. The league has a team salary cap that sets a limit that teams can spend on their entire roster. The NBA has a soft cap and a luxury tax system, meaning if teams spend over a determined amount, they are taxed for the salaries in excess. The league also has a player salary cap. The 1999 NBA collective bargaining agreement first introduced the individual player salary cap in the league. This cap sets a limit on what the best players can earn, otherwise known as the maximum contract. In an economic system with a soft team cap, the introduction of the player salary cap has important implications. The stated outcome of such a salary cap is to improve competitive balance and better distribute star players throughout the league. This study evaluated the 1990-2015 regular seasons to measure the impact of the player salary cap on competitive balance, the distribution of team payrolls, and the dispersion of star players. In accordance with the Rottenberg's invariance hypothesis, the player salary cap has hurt the players and benefited the owners by redistributing income from one party to the other, without impacting the distribution of talent in the league. The rule change has not affected competitive balance, while team payrolls have converged and star players have become more dispersed throughout the league. These changes hurt the league overall, preventing the maximization of revenues. Despite this inefficiency, the chance of the league moving to eliminate the player salary cap is low.
ContributorsWelu, Brian Andrew (Author) / Marburger, Daniel (Thesis director) / Goegan, Brian (Committee member) / Sandra Day O'Connor College of Law (Contributor) / Department of Economics (Contributor) / School of Historical, Philosophical and Religious Studies (Contributor) / W. P. Carey School of Business (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2016-12
133687-Thumbnail Image.png

Attendance Elasticity of Win Percentage in the NBA: An Exploration of the Effects of Team Performance on Home Game Attendance

Description
In the wide world of sports, not all fan bases are created equally—especially in the NBA. Differences in factors like tradition, history, team performance amongst teams make each fan base distinctly unique. This paper will analyze how team performance effects one component of fan behavior: home game attendance. Using win-loss…

In the wide world of sports, not all fan bases are created equally—especially in the NBA. Differences in factors like tradition, history, team performance amongst teams make each fan base distinctly unique. This paper will analyze how team performance effects one component of fan behavior: home game attendance. Using win-loss data and home game attendance data for each NBA team from 2001 to 2017, I will construct statistical models to estimate how great of an impact team performance has on each team’s home game attendance. I expect each team’s fan base to respond differently to changes in their team’s win-loss record. This paper will also attempt to quantify other facts that impact attendance at NBA games, including year-to-year changes in team salary expenditures, regional income, and the number of star players playing for the team. Finally, this paper will explore the factors that affect home game attendance for specific games within a given season—things like weather, strength of opponent, and win streaks. Ultimately, the goal of this paper will be to provide NBA business analysts with resources to more precisely anticipate their team’s home game attendance. The ability to understand what motivates the behavior of a fan base is invaluable in creating a marketing strategy that drives fans to the arena. This paper will help to identify teams that are most susceptible to significant fluctuations in attendance and outline alternative strategies to positioning their product offering effectively to fans.
ContributorsSloan, Jacob Marlow (Author) / Lee, Christopher (Thesis director) / Eaton, John (Committee member) / Department of Marketing (Contributor) / Department of Information Systems (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2018-05
148420-Thumbnail Image.png

Home Advantage in Sports: The Value it Holds with COVID Restrictions

Description

Home advantage affects the game in almost all team sports across the world. Due to<br/>COVID and all of the precautions being taken to keep games played, more extensive research is able to be conducted about what factors truly go into creating a home advantage. Some common factors of home advantage…

Home advantage affects the game in almost all team sports across the world. Due to<br/>COVID and all of the precautions being taken to keep games played, more extensive research is able to be conducted about what factors truly go into creating a home advantage. Some common factors of home advantage include the crowd, facility familiarity, and travel. In the English Premier League, there are no fans allowed at any of the games; furthermore, in the NBA, a bubble was created at one neutral venue with no fans in attendance. Even with the NBA being at a neutral site, there was still a “home team” at every game. The sports betting industry struggled due to failing to shift betting lines in accordance with this decreased home advantage. With these leagues removing some of the factors that are frequently associated with home advantage, analysts are able to better see what the results would be of removing these variables. The purpose of this research is to determine if these adjustments made due to COVID had an impact on the home advantage in different leagues around the world, and if they did, to what extent. Individual game data from the past 10 seasons were used for analysis of both the NBA and the Premier League. The results show that there is a significant difference in win percentage between prior seasons and seasons behind closed doors. In addition to win percentage, many other game statistics see a significant shift as well. Overall, the significance of being the home team disappears in games following the COVID-19 break.
ContributorsOsborne, Ashley A (Author) / Sopha, Matthew (Thesis director) / McIntosh, Daniel (Committee member) / Department of Information Systems (Contributor) / Department of Marketing (Contributor) / WPC Graduate Programs (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2021-05
148062-Thumbnail Image.png

Building an optimized NBA Team Team Composition: A Sports Analytical Approach

Description

Sports analytics is a growing field that attempts to showcase interesting aspects of a sport with the use of modern technology and machine learning techniques. This thesis will demonstrate how the NBA has progressed in the past decade by comparing the performance have five teams (SAS, OKC, PHO, MIN, and…

Sports analytics is a growing field that attempts to showcase interesting aspects of a sport with the use of modern technology and machine learning techniques. This thesis will demonstrate how the NBA has progressed in the past decade by comparing the performance have five teams (SAS, OKC, PHO, MIN, and SAC). It will also provide key insight on what an NBA team should focus on to build an optimized NBA team composition, which will better their performance in the league, which will improve their chances of making into the playoffs. These teams were chosen after conducting extensive analysis on all NBA teams. These five teams were chosen because of the variability in performance (two successful and three less successful teams). Two successful teams, SAS and OKC, and three less successful teams, PHO, MIN, and SAC, were chosen to exemplify the different approaches of teams in the NBA and to distinguish what an NBA team should consider build an optimized team composition to better their performance in the league stage.
ContributorsJegadesan, Sai (Author) / Shin, Donghyuk (Thesis director) / Benjamin, Victor (Committee member) / Department of Information Systems (Contributor) / WPC Graduate Programs (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2021-05

Bienvenidos a México: Breaking Down Borders of the NBA

Description
While basketball has been traditionally regarded as an American sport, the National Basketball Association (NBA) has gained substantial traction outside the United States over the past decade. In order to further encourage attention from international fans and increase league profit, I propose that the league adds an expansion team to…

While basketball has been traditionally regarded as an American sport, the National Basketball Association (NBA) has gained substantial traction outside the United States over the past decade. In order to further encourage attention from international fans and increase league profit, I propose that the league adds an expansion team to Mexico City. I believe that through thorough market research and conscientious brand development, the team be successfully integrated into both the local community as well as the league’s current fan base. Local infrastructure, player safety, border customs, and financials were all taken into consideration into this proposal. The purpose of this project is twofold: first, to advocate for league expansion of the NBA into Mexico City through discussion and exploration of both the anticipated opportunities and obstacles, and second, to design three brand concepts and then propose a final brand concept based off of qualitative and quantitative feedback systematically collected via a survey.
ContributorsArd, Dalin Max (Author) / Montoya, Detra (Thesis director) / McIntosh, Daniel (Committee member) / Department of Marketing (Contributor) / Department of Information Systems (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2019-05
131876-Thumbnail Image.png

The Winning Losers: Combatting the Economic and Competitive Balance Effects of Tanking in the National Basketball Association

Description
In order to establish sustainable parity in competition year over year, all four major professional sports organizations in the United States have established a first-year draft with an order decided or influenced by their Win-Loss record the previous year. The assumption is that this draft structure should keep all teams…

In order to establish sustainable parity in competition year over year, all four major professional sports organizations in the United States have established a first-year draft with an order decided or influenced by their Win-Loss record the previous year. The assumption is that this draft structure should keep all teams competitive. Rather, there is an overwhelming shift to analytical problem-solving that suggests building a winning team requires a period of losing and collecting young talent. The separation has become so apparent that it has been referred to as, “Twelve teams a-tanking.” (Boras, 2018) The trend was so pronounced this last season that the seven worst teams that held their own pick all lost by more than 15 points in the span of two days.(Sheinin, 2018) This leaves the ratio of games with a 15 point or more point differential to that of less than 15 points was 8:9 on the date described by Sheinin, as opposed to the usual ratio of 2:5 for the rest of the season. This stretch of games occurred during a pivotal time in the season and should have garnered high interest for entertainment as teams grapple for playoff position heading into the post season. Instead, viewers were treated to seven blow-out games. In this thesis, the effects of tanking will be studied as it pertains to the NBA, as a whole, losing attendance in multiple aspects. This applies directly to the value of sponsorships in the NBA. In short, this thesis will answer three of questions; (1) How does expected point spread, which is highly affected by tanking, affect NBA attendance, of all teams, down the stretch of games? (2) How can the NBA protect its sponsors from the effects of tanking? (3) How can NBA sponsors protect themselves from the effects of tanking?
ContributorsThomas, Isaiah (Author) / McIntosh, Daniel (Thesis director) / Eaton, John (Committee member) / Department of Information Systems (Contributor) / Department of Marketing (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2020-05