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- Creators: Armbruster, Dieter
- Creators: Department of Management and Entrepreneurship
We attempt to analyze the effect of fatigue on free throw efficiency in the National Basketball Association (NBA) using play-by-play data from regular-season, regulation-length games in the 2016-2017, 2017-2018, and 2018-2019 seasons. Using both regression and tree-based statistical methods, we analyze the relationship between minutes played total and minutes played continuously at the time of free throw attempts on players' odds of making an attempt, while controlling for prior free throw shooting ability, longer-term fatigue, and other game factors. Our results offer strong evidence that short-term activity after periods of inactivity positively affects free throw efficiency, while longer-term fatigue has no effect.
In order to train the model, data was collected from the NBA statistics website. The model was trained on games dating from the 2010 NBA season through the 2017 NBA season. Three separate models were built, predicting the winner, predicting the total points, and finally predicting the margin of victory for a team. These models learned on 80 percent of the data and validated on the other 20 percent. These models were trained for 40 epochs with a batch size of 15.
The model for predicting the winner achieved an accuracy of 65.61 percent, just slightly below the accuracy of other experts in the field of predicting the NBA. The model for predicting total points performed decently as well, it could beat Las Vegas’ prediction 50.04 percent of the time. The model for predicting margin of victory also did well, it beat Las Vegas 50.58 percent of the time.
Jack Grant and Sam Truman, two seniors at Arizona State University, discuss the latest in major sports, current events, and various other topics. Within their informal discussions, Jack and Sam "just say" whatever comes to mind and never shy away from a hot take. Most episodes include only Jack and Sam, but some entertain numerous guests and differing formats. The podcast is supported by a multimedia website, including written articles and interactive features. All components were further marketed through social media outreach and engagement. The Just Saying Podcast thesis paper analyzes podcast history and what has made them such a popular media outlet. Further, the paper discusses what makes The Just Saying Podcast a unique product. Our deliverable, The Just Saying Podcast, can be found at: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-just-saying-podcast/id1585891858 All components can be accessed through: https://www.justsayingpod.com/ https://twitter.com/JustSayingP