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Vegetation modeling of Holocene landscapes in the southern Levant

Description
This dissertation creates models of past potential vegetation in the Southern Levant during most of the Holocene, from the beginnings of farming through the rise of urbanized civilization (12 to 2.5 ka BP). The time scale encompasses the rise and collapse of the earliest agrarian civilizations in this region. The…

This dissertation creates models of past potential vegetation in the Southern Levant during most of the Holocene, from the beginnings of farming through the rise of urbanized civilization (12 to 2.5 ka BP). The time scale encompasses the rise and collapse of the earliest agrarian civilizations in this region. The archaeological record suggests that increases in social complexity were linked to climatic episodes (e.g., favorable climatic conditions coincide with intervals of prosperity or marked social development such as the Neolithic Revolution ca. 11.5 ka BP, the Secondary Products Revolution ca. 6 ka BP, and the Middle Bronze Age ca. 4 ka BP). The opposite can be said about periods of climatic deterioration, when settled villages were abandoned as the inhabitants returned to nomadic or semi nomadic lifestyles (e.g., abandonment of the largest Neolithic farming towns after 8 ka BP and collapse of Bronze Age towns and cities after 3.5 ka BP during the Late Bronze Age). This study develops chronologically refined models of past vegetation from 12 to 2.5 ka BP, at 500 year intervals, using GIS, remote sensing and statistical modeling tools (MAXENT) that derive from species distribution modeling. Plants are sensitive to alterations in their environment and respond accordingly. Because of this, they are valuable indicators of landscape change. An extensive database of historical and field gathered observations was created. Using this database as well as environmental variables that include temperature and precipitation surfaces for the whole study period (also at 500 year intervals), the potential vegetation of the region was modeled. Through this means, a continuous chronology of potential vegetation of the Southern Levantwas built. The produced paleo-vegetation models generally agree with the proxy records. They indicate a gradual decline of forests and expansion of steppe and desert throughout the Holocene, interrupted briefly during the Mid Holocene (ca. 4 ka BP, Middle Bronze Age). They also suggest that during the Early Holocene, forest areas were extensive, spreading into the Northern Negev. The two remaining forested areas in the Northern and Southern Plateau Region in Jordan were also connected during this time. The models also show general agreement with the major cultural developments, with forested areas either expanding or remaining stable during prosperous periods (e.g., Pre Pottery Neolithic and Middle Bronze Age), and significantly contracting during moments of instability (e.g., Late Bronze Age).
ContributorsSoto-Berelov, Mariela (Author) / Fall, Patricia L. (Thesis advisor) / Myint, Soe (Committee member) / Turner, Billie L (Committee member) / Falconer, Steven (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2011
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Evaluation of hierarchical segmentation for natural vegetation: a case study of the Tehachapi Mountains, California

Description
Two critical limitations for hyperspatial imagery are higher imagery variances and large data sizes. Although object-based analyses with a multi-scale framework for diverse object sizes are the solution, more data sources and large amounts of testing at high costs are required. In this study, I used tree density segmentation as…

Two critical limitations for hyperspatial imagery are higher imagery variances and large data sizes. Although object-based analyses with a multi-scale framework for diverse object sizes are the solution, more data sources and large amounts of testing at high costs are required. In this study, I used tree density segmentation as the key element of a three-level hierarchical vegetation framework for reducing those costs, and a three-step procedure was used to evaluate its effects. A two-step procedure, which involved environmental stratifications and the random walker algorithm, was used for tree density segmentation. I determined whether variation in tone and texture could be reduced within environmental strata, and whether tree density segmentations could be labeled by species associations. At the final level, two tree density segmentations were partitioned into smaller subsets using eCognition in order to label individual species or tree stands in two test areas of two tree densities, and the Z values of Moran's I were used to evaluate whether imagery objects have different mean values from near segmentations as a measure of segmentation accuracy. The two-step procedure was able to delineating tree density segments and label species types robustly, compared to previous hierarchical frameworks. However, eCognition was not able to produce detailed, reasonable image objects with optimal scale parameters for species labeling. This hierarchical vegetation framework is applicable for fine-scale, time-series vegetation mapping to develop baseline data for evaluating climate change impacts on vegetation at low cost using widely available data and a personal laptop.
ContributorsLiau, Yan-ting (Author) / Franklin, Janet (Thesis advisor) / Turner, Billie (Committee member) / Myint, Soe (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2013
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The Role of the Physical and Social Residential Environment in Shaping Heat Risks in an Arid City

Description
Extreme heat and its human impacts are significant public health challenges that disproportionately affect certain populations. Often, people with the least resources to cope with the heat also live in the hottest regions of cities. Previous heat vulnerability research has predominantly been conducted at a coarse geographic scale, yet translating…

Extreme heat and its human impacts are significant public health challenges that disproportionately affect certain populations. Often, people with the least resources to cope with the heat also live in the hottest regions of cities. Previous heat vulnerability research has predominantly been conducted at a coarse geographic scale, yet translating relationships measured at aggregated scales to the individual level can result in ecological fallacy. Prior work has also primarily studied the most severe health outcomes: hospitalization/emergency care and mortality. It is likely that magnitudes more people are experiencing negative health impacts from heat that do not necessarily result in medical care. Such less severe impacts are under-researched in the literature.This dissertation addresses these knowledge gaps by identifying how social characteristics and physical measurements of heat at the individual and household level act independently and in concert to influence human heat-related outcomes, especially less severe outcomes. In the first paper, meta-analysis was used to quantify the summary effects of vulnerability indicators on incidence of heat-related illness. More proximal vulnerability indicators (e.g., residential air conditioning use, indoor heat exposure, etc.) tended to have the strongest impact on odds of experiencing heat-related illness than more distal indicators. In the next paper, indoor air temperature observations were related to the social characteristics of the residents. The strongest predictor of indoor air temperature was the residents’ ideal thermally comfortable temperature, despite affordability. In the final paper, fine scale biometeorological observations of the outdoor thermal environment near residents’ homes were linked to their experience with heat-related illness. The outdoor thermal environment appeared to have a stronger, more consistent impact on heat-related illness among households in a lower income neighborhood compared to a higher income one. These findings affirm the value of employing residential heat mitigation solutions at the individual and household scale, indoors and outdoors. Across all chapters, the indoor thermal environment, and the ability to modify it, had a clear impact on residents’ comfort and health. Solutions that target the most proximal causal factors of heat-related illness will likely have the greatest impact on reducing the burden of heat on human health and well-being.
ContributorsWright, Mary K (Author) / Hondula, David M (Thesis advisor) / Larson, Kelli L (Committee member) / Middel, Ariane (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2023
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Improving Urban Cooling in the Semi-arid Phoenix Metropolis: Land System Science, Landscape Ecology and Urban Climatology Approaches

Description
The global increase in urbanization has raised questions about urban sustainability to which multiple research communities have entered. Those communities addressing interest in the urban heat island (UHI) effect and extreme temperatures include land system science, urban/landscape ecology, and urban climatology. General investigations of UHI have focused primarily on land…

The global increase in urbanization has raised questions about urban sustainability to which multiple research communities have entered. Those communities addressing interest in the urban heat island (UHI) effect and extreme temperatures include land system science, urban/landscape ecology, and urban climatology. General investigations of UHI have focused primarily on land surface and canopy layer air temperatures. The surface temperature is of prime importance to UHI studies because of its central rule in the surface energy balance, direct effects on air temperature, and outdoor thermal comfort. Focusing on the diurnal surface temperature variations in Phoenix, Arizona, especially on the cool (green space) island effect and the surface heat island effect, the dissertation develops three research papers that improve the integration among the abovementioned sub-fields. Specifically, these papers involve: (1) the quantification and modeling of the diurnal cooling benefits of green space; (2) the optimization of green space locations to reduce the surface heat island effect in daytime and nighttime; and, (3) an evaluation of the effects of vertical urban forms on land surface temperature using Google Street View. These works demonstrate that the pattern of new green spaces in central Phoenix could be optimized such that 96% of the maximum daytime and nighttime cooling benefits would be achieved, and that Google Street View data offers an alternative to other data, providing the vertical dimensions of land-cover for addressing surface temperature impacts, increasing the model accuracy over the use of horizontal land-cover data alone. Taken together, the dissertation points the way towards the integration of research directions to better understand the consequences of detailed land conditions on temperatures in urban areas, providing insights for urban designs to alleviate these extremes.
ContributorsZhang, Yujia (Author) / Turner, Billie (Thesis advisor) / Murray, Alan T. (Committee member) / Myint, Soe W (Committee member) / Middel, Ariane (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2018

Agricultural Development, Land Change, and Livelihoods in Tanzania's Kilombero Valley

Description

The Kilombero Valley lies at the intersection of a network of protected areas that cross Tanzania. The wetlands and woodlands of the Valley, as well as the forest of surrounding mountains are abundant in biodiversity and are considered to be critical areas for conservation. This area, however, is also the…

The Kilombero Valley lies at the intersection of a network of protected areas that cross Tanzania. The wetlands and woodlands of the Valley, as well as the forest of surrounding mountains are abundant in biodiversity and are considered to be critical areas for conservation. This area, however, is also the home to more than a half million people, primarily poor smallholder farmers. In an effort to support the livelihoods and food security of these farmers and the larger Tanzanian population, the country has recently targeted a series of programs to increase agricultural production in the Kilombero Valley and elsewhere in the country. Bridging concepts and methods from land change science, political ecology, and sustainable livelihoods, I present an integrated assessment of the linkages between development and conservation efforts in the Kilombero Valley and the implications for food security.

This dissertation uses three empirical studies to understand the process of development in the Kilombero Valley and to link the priorities and perceptions of conservation and development efforts to the material outcomes in food security and land change. The first paper of this dissertation examines the changes in land use in the Kilombero Valley between 1997 and 2014 following the privatization of agriculture and the expansion of Tanzania’s Kilimo Kwanza program. Remote sensing analysis reveals a two-fold increase in agricultural area during this short time, largely at the expense of forest. Protected areas in some parts of the Valley appear to be deterring deforestation, but rapid agricultural growth, particularly surrounding a commercial rice plantation, has led to loss of extant forest and sustained habitat fragmentation. The second paper focuses examines livelihood strategies in the Valley and claims regarding the role of agrobiodiversity in food security.

The results of household survey reveal no difference or lower food security among households that diversify their agricultural activities. Some evidence, however, emerges regarding the importance of home gardens and crop diversification for dietary diversity. The third paper considers the competing discourses surrounding conservation and development in the Kilombero Valley. Employing q-method, this paper discerns four key viewpoints among various stakeholders in the Valley. While there are some apparently intractable distinctions between among these discourses, consensus regarding the importance of wildlife corridors and the presence of boundary-crossing individuals provide the promise of collaboration and compromise.
ContributorsConnors, John Patrick (Author) / Turner, Billie Lee (Thesis advisor) / Eakin, Hallie (Committee member) / Myint, Soe (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2015
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Damming ephemeral streams: understanding biogeomorphic shifts and implications to traversed streams due to the Central Arizona Project (CAP) canal, Arizona

Description
Ephemeral streams in Arizona that are perpendicularly intersected by the Central Arizona Project (CAP) canal have been altered due to partial or complete damming of the stream channel. The dammed upstream channels have experienced decades long cycles of sediment deposition and waterlogging during storm events causing the development of "green-up"…

Ephemeral streams in Arizona that are perpendicularly intersected by the Central Arizona Project (CAP) canal have been altered due to partial or complete damming of the stream channel. The dammed upstream channels have experienced decades long cycles of sediment deposition and waterlogging during storm events causing the development of "green-up" zones. This dissertation examines the biogeomorphological effects of damming ephemeral streams caused by the CAP canal by investigating: (1) changes in the preexisting spatial cover of riparian vegetation and how these changes are affected by stream geometry; (2) green-up initiation and evolution; and (3) changes in plant species and community level changes. To the author's knowledge, this is the only study that undertakes an interdisciplinary approach to understanding the environmental responses to anthropogenically-altered ephemeral stream channels. The results presented herein show that vegetation along the upstream section increased by an average of 200,872 m2 per kilometer of the CAP canal over a 28 year period. Vegetation growth was compared to channel widths which share a quasi-linear relationship. Remote sensing analysis of Landsat TM images using an object-oriented approach shows that riparian vegetation cover gradually increased over 28 years. Field studies reveal that the increases in vegetation are attributed to the artificial rise in local base-level upstream created by the canal, which causes water to spill laterally onto the desert floor. Vegetation within the green-up zone varies considerably in comparison to pre-canal construction. Changes are most notable in vegetation community shifts and abundance. The wettest section of the green-up zone contains the greatest density of woody plant stems, the greatest vegetation volume, and a high percentage of herbaceous cover. Vegetation within wetter zones changed from a tree-shrub to a predominantly tree-herb assemblage, whereas desert shrubs located in zones with intermediate moisture have developed larger stems. Results from this study lend valuable insight to green-up processes associated with damming ephemeral streams, which can be applied to planning future canal or dam projects in drylands. Also, understanding the development of the green-up zones provide awareness to potentially avoiding flood damage to infrastructure that may be unknowingly constructed within the slow-growing green-up zone.
ContributorsHamdan, Abeer (Author) / Schmeeckle, Mark (Thesis advisor) / Myint, Soe (Thesis advisor) / Dorn, Ronald (Committee member) / Stromberg, Juliet (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2014
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Cityscapes, Climate, and Mental Health: Prioritizing Thermal and Mental Wellbeing in the Design of Cities

Description

Urban climate conditions are the physical manifestation of formal and informal social forces of design, policy, and urban management. The urban design community (e.g. planners, architects, urban designers, landscape architects, engineers) impacts urban development through influential built projects and design discourse. Their decisions create urban landscapes that impact physiological and…

Urban climate conditions are the physical manifestation of formal and informal social forces of design, policy, and urban management. The urban design community (e.g. planners, architects, urban designers, landscape architects, engineers) impacts urban development through influential built projects and design discourse. Their decisions create urban landscapes that impact physiological and mental health for people that live in and around them. Therefore, to understand possible opportunities for decision-making to support healthier urban environments and communities, this dissertation examines the role of neighborhood design on the thermal environment and the effect the thermal environment has on mental health. In situ data collection and numerical modeling are used to assess current and proposed urban design configurations in the Edison Eastlake public housing community in central Phoenix for their efficacy in cooling the thermal environment. A distributed lagged non-linear model is used to investigate the relative risk of hospitalization for schizophrenia in Maricopa County based on atmospheric conditions. The dissertation incorporates both an assessment of design strategies for the cooling of the thermal environment and an analysis of the existing thermal environment’s relationship with mental health. By reframing the urban design of neighborhoods through the lens of urban climate, this research reinforces the importance of incorporating the community into the planning process and highlights some unintended outcomes of prioritizing the thermal environment in urban design.
ContributorsCrank, Peter J (Author) / Sailor, David (Thesis advisor) / Middel, Ariane (Committee member) / Hondula, David M. (Committee member) / Coseo, Paul J (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2020