Matching Items (23)
Filtering by
- All Subjects: Industrial Engineering
- Creators: Mirchandani, Pitu
- Status: Published
Description
The main objective of this research is to develop an integrated method to study emergent behavior and consequences of evolution and adaptation in engineered complex adaptive systems (ECASs). A multi-layer conceptual framework and modeling approach including behavioral and structural aspects is provided to describe the structure of a class of engineered complex systems and predict their future adaptive patterns. The approach allows the examination of complexity in the structure and the behavior of components as a result of their connections and in relation to their environment. This research describes and uses the major differences of natural complex adaptive systems (CASs) with artificial/engineered CASs to build a framework and platform for ECAS. While this framework focuses on the critical factors of an engineered system, it also enables one to synthetically employ engineering and mathematical models to analyze and measure complexity in such systems. In this way concepts of complex systems science are adapted to management science and system of systems engineering. In particular an integrated consumer-based optimization and agent-based modeling (ABM) platform is presented that enables managers to predict and partially control patterns of behaviors in ECASs. Demonstrated on the U.S. electricity markets, ABM is integrated with normative and subjective decision behavior recommended by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) and Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC). The approach integrates social networks, social science, complexity theory, and diffusion theory. Furthermore, it has unique and significant contribution in exploring and representing concrete managerial insights for ECASs and offering new optimized actions and modeling paradigms in agent-based simulation.
ContributorsHaghnevis, Moeed (Author) / Askin, Ronald G. (Thesis advisor) / Armbruster, Dieter (Thesis advisor) / Mirchandani, Pitu (Committee member) / Wu, Tong (Committee member) / Hedman, Kory (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2013
Description
With the rapid development of mobile sensing technologies like GPS, RFID, sensors in smartphones, etc., capturing position data in the form of trajectories has become easy. Moving object trajectory analysis is a growing area of interest these days owing to its applications in various domains such as marketing, security, traffic monitoring and management, etc. To better understand movement behaviors from the raw mobility data, this doctoral work provides analytic models for analyzing trajectory data. As a first contribution, a model is developed to detect changes in trajectories with time. If the taxis moving in a city are viewed as sensors that provide real time information of the traffic in the city, a change in these trajectories with time can reveal that the road network has changed. To detect changes, trajectories are modeled with a Hidden Markov Model (HMM). A modified training algorithm, for parameter estimation in HMM, called m-BaumWelch, is used to develop likelihood estimates under assumed changes and used to detect changes in trajectory data with time. Data from vehicles are used to test the method for change detection. Secondly, sequential pattern mining is used to develop a model to detect changes in frequent patterns occurring in trajectory data. The aim is to answer two questions: Are the frequent patterns still frequent in the new data? If they are frequent, has the time interval distribution in the pattern changed? Two different approaches are considered for change detection, frequency-based approach and distribution-based approach. The methods are illustrated with vehicle trajectory data. Finally, a model is developed for clustering and outlier detection in semantic trajectories. A challenge with clustering semantic trajectories is that both numeric and categorical attributes are present. Another problem to be addressed while clustering is that trajectories can be of different lengths and also have missing values. A tree-based ensemble is used to address these problems. The approach is extended to outlier detection in semantic trajectories.
ContributorsKondaveeti, Anirudh (Author) / Runger, George C. (Thesis advisor) / Mirchandani, Pitu (Committee member) / Pan, Rong (Committee member) / Maciejewski, Ross (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2012
Description
In a healthcare setting, the Sterile Processing Department (SPD) provides ancillary services to the Operating Room (OR), Emergency Room, Labor & Delivery, and off-site clinics. SPD's function is to reprocess reusable surgical instruments and return them to their home departments. The management of surgical instruments and medical devices can impact patient safety and hospital revenue. Any time instrumentation or devices are not available or are not fit for use, patient safety and revenue can be negatively impacted. One step of the instrument reprocessing cycle is sterilization. Steam sterilization is the sterilization method used for the majority of surgical instruments and is preferred to immediate use steam sterilization (IUSS) because terminally sterilized items can be stored until needed. IUSS Items must be used promptly and cannot be stored for later use. IUSS is intended for emergency situations and not as regular course of action. Unfortunately, IUSS is used to compensate for inadequate inventory levels, scheduling conflicts, and miscommunications. If IUSS is viewed as an adverse event, then monitoring IUSS incidences can help healthcare organizations meet patient safety goals and financial goals along with aiding in process improvement efforts. This work recommends statistical process control methods to IUSS incidents and illustrates the use of control charts for IUSS occurrences through a case study and analysis of the control charts for data from a health care provider. Furthermore, this work considers the application of data mining methods to IUSS occurrences and presents a representative example of data mining to the IUSS occurrences. This extends the application of statistical process control and data mining in healthcare applications.
ContributorsWeart, Gail (Author) / Runger, George C. (Thesis advisor) / Li, Jing (Committee member) / Shunk, Dan (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2014
Description
To guide the timetabling and vehicle assignment of urban bus systems, a group of optimization models were developed for scenarios from simple to complex. The model took the interaction of prospective passengers and bus companies into consideration to achieve the maximum financial benefit as well as social satisfaction. The model was verified by a series of case studies and simulation from which some interesting conclusions were drawn.
ContributorsHuang, Shiyang (Author) / Askin, Ronald G. (Thesis advisor) / Mirchandani, Pitu (Committee member) / McCarville, Daniel R. (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2014
Description
This research develops heuristics for scheduling electric power production amid uncertainty. Reliability is becoming more difficult to manage due to growing uncertainty from renewable resources. This challenge is compounded by the risk of resource outages, which can occur any time and without warning. Stochastic optimization is a promising tool but remains computationally intractable for large systems. The models used in industry instead schedule for the forecast and withhold generation reserve for scenario response, but they are blind to how this reserve may be constrained by network congestion. This dissertation investigates more effective heuristics to improve economics and reliability in power systems where congestion is a concern.
Two general approaches are developed. Both approximate the effects of recourse decisions without actually solving a stochastic model. The first approach procures more reserve whenever approximate recourse policies stress the transmission network. The second approach procures reserve at prime locations by generalizing the existing practice of reserve disqualification. The latter approach is applied for feasibility and is later extended to limit scenario costs. Testing demonstrates expected cost improvements around 0.5%-1.0% for the IEEE 73-bus test case, which can translate to millions of dollars per year even for modest systems. The heuristics developed in this dissertation perform somewhere between established deterministic and stochastic models: providing an economic benefit over current practices without substantially increasing computational times.
Two general approaches are developed. Both approximate the effects of recourse decisions without actually solving a stochastic model. The first approach procures more reserve whenever approximate recourse policies stress the transmission network. The second approach procures reserve at prime locations by generalizing the existing practice of reserve disqualification. The latter approach is applied for feasibility and is later extended to limit scenario costs. Testing demonstrates expected cost improvements around 0.5%-1.0% for the IEEE 73-bus test case, which can translate to millions of dollars per year even for modest systems. The heuristics developed in this dissertation perform somewhere between established deterministic and stochastic models: providing an economic benefit over current practices without substantially increasing computational times.
ContributorsLyon, Joshua Daniel (Author) / Zhang, Muhong (Thesis advisor) / Hedman, Kory W (Thesis advisor) / Askin, Ronald G. (Committee member) / Mirchandani, Pitu (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2015
Description
In this paper, a literature review is presented on the application of Bayesian networks applied in system reliability analysis. It is shown that Bayesian networks have become a popular modeling framework for system reliability analysis due to the benefits that Bayesian networks have the capability and flexibility to model complex systems, update the probability according to evidences and give a straightforward and compact graphical representation. Research on approaches for Bayesian network learning and inference are summarized. Two groups of models with multistate nodes were developed for scenarios from constant to continuous time to apply and contrast Bayesian networks with classical fault tree method. The expanded model discretized the continuous variables and provided failure related probability distribution over time.
ContributorsZhou, Duan (Author) / Pan, Rong (Thesis advisor) / McCarville, Daniel R. (Committee member) / Zhang, Muhong (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2014
Description
Ultimate Frisbee or "Ultimate," is a fast growing field sport that is being played competitively at universities across the country. Many mid-tier college teams have the goal of winning as many games as possible, however they also need to grow their program by training and retaining new players. The purpose of this project was to create a prototype statistical tool that maximizes a player line-up's probability of scoring the next point, while having as equal playing time across all experienced and novice players as possible. Game, player, and team data was collected for 25 different games played over the course of 4 tournaments during Fall 2017 and early Spring 2018 using the UltiAnalytics iPad application. "Amount of Top 1/3 Players" was the measure of equal playing time, and "Line Efficiency" and "Line Interaction" represented a line's probability of scoring. After running a logistic regression, Line Efficiency was found to be the more accurate predictor of scoring outcome than Line Interaction. An "Equal PT Measure vs. Line Efficiency" graph was then created and the plot showed what the optimal lines were depending on what the user's preferences were at that point in time. Possible next steps include testing the model and refining it as needed.
ContributorsSpence, Andrea Nicole (Author) / McCarville, Daniel R. (Thesis director) / Pavlic, Theodore (Committee member) / Industrial, Systems and Operations Engineering Program (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2018-05
Description
The first step in process improvement is to scope the problem, next is measure the current process, but if data is not readily available and cannot be manually collected, then a measurement system must be implemented. General Dynamics Mission Systems (GDMS) is a lean company that is always seeking to improve. One of their current bottlenecks is the incoming inspection department. This department is responsible for finding defects on parts purchased and is critical to the high reliability product produced by GDMS. To stay competitive and hold their market share, a decision was made to optimize incoming inspection. This proved difficult because no data is being collected. Early steps in many process improvement methodologies, such as Define, Measure, Analyze, Improve and Control (DMAIC), include data collection; however, no measurement system was in place, resulting in no available data for improvement. The solution to this problem was to design and implement a Management Information System (MIS) that will track a variety of data. This will provide the company with data that will be used for analysis and improvement. The first stage of the MIS was developed in Microsoft Excel with Visual Basic for Applications because of the low cost and overall effectiveness of the software. Excel allows update to be made quickly, and allows GDMS to collect data immediately. Stage two would be moving the MIS to a more practicable software, such as Access or MySQL. This thesis is only focuses on stage one of the MIS, and GDMS will proceed with stage two.
ContributorsDiaz, Angel (Author) / McCarville, Daniel R. (Thesis director) / Pavlic, Theodore (Committee member) / Industrial, Systems (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2017-05
Description
Modern intelligent transportation systems (ITS) make driving more efficient, easier, and safer. Knowledge of real-time traffic conditions is a critical input for operating ITS. Real-time freeway traffic state estimation approaches have been used to quantify traffic conditions given limited amount of data collected by traffic sensors. Currently, almost all real-time estimation methods have been developed for estimating laterally aggregated traffic conditions in a roadway segment using link-based models which assume homogeneous conditions across multiple lanes. However, with new advances and applications of ITS, knowledge of lane-based traffic conditions is becoming important, where the traffic condition differences among lanes are recognized. In addition, most of the current real-time freeway traffic estimators consider only data from loop detectors. This dissertation develops a bi-level data fusion approach using heterogeneous multi-sensor measurements to estimate real-time lane-based freeway traffic conditions, which integrates a link-level model-based estimator and a lane-level data-driven estimator.
Macroscopic traffic flow models describe the evolution of aggregated traffic characteristics over time and space, which are required by model-based traffic estimation approaches. Since current first-order Lagrangian macroscopic traffic flow model has some unrealistic implicit assumptions (e.g., infinite acceleration), a second-order Lagrangian macroscopic traffic flow model has been developed by incorporating drivers’ anticipation and reaction delay. A multi-sensor extended Kalman filter (MEKF) algorithm has been developed to combine heterogeneous measurements from multiple sources. A MEKF-based traffic estimator, explicitly using the developed second-order traffic flow model and measurements from loop detectors as well as GPS trajectories for given fractions of vehicles, has been proposed which gives real-time link-level traffic estimates in the bi-level estimation system.
The lane-level estimation in the bi-level data fusion system uses the link-level estimates as priors and adopts a data-driven approach to obtain lane-based estimates, where now heterogeneous multi-sensor measurements are combined using parallel spatial-temporal filters.
Experimental analysis shows that the second-order model can more realistically reproduce real world traffic flow patterns (e.g., stop-and-go waves). The MEKF-based link-level estimator exhibits more accurate results than the estimator that uses only a single data source. Evaluation of the lane-level estimator demonstrates that the proposed new bi-level multi-sensor data fusion system can provide very good estimates of real-time lane-based traffic conditions.
Macroscopic traffic flow models describe the evolution of aggregated traffic characteristics over time and space, which are required by model-based traffic estimation approaches. Since current first-order Lagrangian macroscopic traffic flow model has some unrealistic implicit assumptions (e.g., infinite acceleration), a second-order Lagrangian macroscopic traffic flow model has been developed by incorporating drivers’ anticipation and reaction delay. A multi-sensor extended Kalman filter (MEKF) algorithm has been developed to combine heterogeneous measurements from multiple sources. A MEKF-based traffic estimator, explicitly using the developed second-order traffic flow model and measurements from loop detectors as well as GPS trajectories for given fractions of vehicles, has been proposed which gives real-time link-level traffic estimates in the bi-level estimation system.
The lane-level estimation in the bi-level data fusion system uses the link-level estimates as priors and adopts a data-driven approach to obtain lane-based estimates, where now heterogeneous multi-sensor measurements are combined using parallel spatial-temporal filters.
Experimental analysis shows that the second-order model can more realistically reproduce real world traffic flow patterns (e.g., stop-and-go waves). The MEKF-based link-level estimator exhibits more accurate results than the estimator that uses only a single data source. Evaluation of the lane-level estimator demonstrates that the proposed new bi-level multi-sensor data fusion system can provide very good estimates of real-time lane-based traffic conditions.
ContributorsZhou, Zhuoyang (Author) / Mirchandani, Pitu (Thesis advisor) / Askin, Ronald (Committee member) / Runger, George C. (Committee member) / Zhou, Xuesong (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2015
Description
Feature learning and the discovery of nonlinear variation patterns in high-dimensional data is an important task in many problem domains, such as imaging, streaming data from sensors, and manufacturing. This dissertation presents several methods for learning and visualizing nonlinear variation in high-dimensional data. First, an automated method for discovering nonlinear variation patterns using deep learning autoencoders is proposed. The approach provides a functional mapping from a low-dimensional representation to the original spatially-dense data that is both interpretable and efficient with respect to preserving information. Experimental results indicate that deep learning autoencoders outperform manifold learning and principal component analysis in reproducing the original data from the learned variation sources.
A key issue in using autoencoders for nonlinear variation pattern discovery is to encourage the learning of solutions where each feature represents a unique variation source, which we define as distinct features. This problem of learning distinct features is also referred to as disentangling factors of variation in the representation learning literature. The remainder of this dissertation highlights and provides solutions for this important problem.
An alternating autoencoder training method is presented and a new measure motivated by orthogonal loadings in linear models is proposed to quantify feature distinctness in the nonlinear models. Simulated point cloud data and handwritten digit images illustrate that standard training methods for autoencoders consistently mix the true variation sources in the learned low-dimensional representation, whereas the alternating method produces solutions with more distinct patterns.
Finally, a new regularization method for learning distinct nonlinear features using autoencoders is proposed. Motivated in-part by the properties of linear solutions, a series of learning constraints are implemented via regularization penalties during stochastic gradient descent training. These include the orthogonality of tangent vectors to the manifold, the correlation between learned features, and the distributions of the learned features. This regularized learning approach yields low-dimensional representations which can be better interpreted and used to identify the true sources of variation impacting a high-dimensional feature space. Experimental results demonstrate the effectiveness of this method for nonlinear variation pattern discovery on both simulated and real data sets.
A key issue in using autoencoders for nonlinear variation pattern discovery is to encourage the learning of solutions where each feature represents a unique variation source, which we define as distinct features. This problem of learning distinct features is also referred to as disentangling factors of variation in the representation learning literature. The remainder of this dissertation highlights and provides solutions for this important problem.
An alternating autoencoder training method is presented and a new measure motivated by orthogonal loadings in linear models is proposed to quantify feature distinctness in the nonlinear models. Simulated point cloud data and handwritten digit images illustrate that standard training methods for autoencoders consistently mix the true variation sources in the learned low-dimensional representation, whereas the alternating method produces solutions with more distinct patterns.
Finally, a new regularization method for learning distinct nonlinear features using autoencoders is proposed. Motivated in-part by the properties of linear solutions, a series of learning constraints are implemented via regularization penalties during stochastic gradient descent training. These include the orthogonality of tangent vectors to the manifold, the correlation between learned features, and the distributions of the learned features. This regularized learning approach yields low-dimensional representations which can be better interpreted and used to identify the true sources of variation impacting a high-dimensional feature space. Experimental results demonstrate the effectiveness of this method for nonlinear variation pattern discovery on both simulated and real data sets.
ContributorsHoward, Phillip (Author) / Runger, George C. (Thesis advisor) / Montgomery, Douglas C. (Committee member) / Mirchandani, Pitu (Committee member) / Apley, Daniel (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2016