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- All Subjects: Industrial Engineering
- Creators: Pan, Rong
- Member of: Theses and Dissertations
Implicit in the design criteria of current ALT designs is the assumption that the form of the acceleration model is correct. This is unrealistic assumption in many real-world problems. Chapter 3 provides an approach for ALT optimum design for model discrimination. We utilize the Hellinger distance measure between predictive distributions. The optimal ALT plan at three stress levels was determined and its performance was compared to good compromise plan, best traditional plan and well-known 4:2:1 compromise test plans. In the case of linear versus quadratic ALT models, the proposed method increased the test plan's ability to distinguish among competing models and provided better guidance as to which model is appropriate for the experiment.
Chapter 4 extends the approach of Chapter 3 to ALT sequential model discrimination. An initial experiment is conducted to provide maximum possible information with respect to model discrimination. The follow-on experiment is planned by leveraging the most current information to allow for Bayesian model comparison through posterior model probability ratios. Results showed that performance of plan is adversely impacted by the amount of censoring in the data, in the case of linear vs. quadratic model form at three levels of constant stress, sequential testing can improve model recovery rate by approximately 8% when data is complete, but no apparent advantage in adopting sequential testing was found in the case of right-censored data when censoring is in excess of a certain amount.
This research study focuses on the behavior of crystalline silicon PV module technology in the dry and hot climatic condition of Tempe/Phoenix, Arizona. A three-phase approach was developed: (1) A quantitative failure modes, effects, and criticality analysis (FMECA) was developed for prioritizing failure modes or mechanisms in a given environment; (2) A time-series approach was used to model environmental stress variables involved and prioritize their effect on the power output drop; and (3) A procedure for developing a prediction model was proposed for the climatic specific condition based on accelerated degradation testing
To evaluate the performance of Dantzig selector, a simulation study was conducted and the results based on the percentage of type II errors are analyzed. Also, another alternative for 6 factor NC design, called the Alternate No-confounding design in six factors is introduced in this study. The performance of this Alternate NC design in 6 factors is then evaluated by using Dantzig selector as an analysis method. Lastly, a section is dedicated to comparing the performance of NC-6 and Alternate NC-6 designs.
Regarding compact phase spacing, insight into the possibility of increasing the security rating of transmission lines is the primary focus through increased mutual coupling and decreased positive sequence reactance. Compact design can reduce the required corridor width to as little as 31% of traditional designs, especially with the use of inter-phase spacers. Typically transmission lines are built with conservative clearances, with difficulty obtaining right of way, more compact phase spacing may be needed. With design consideration significant compaction can produce an increase by 5-25% in the transmission line security (steady state stability) rating. In addition, other advantages and disadvantages of compact phase design are analyzed. Also, the next two topics: high temperature low sag conductors and high phase order designs include the use of compact designs.
High temperature low sag (HTLS) conductors are used to increase the thermal capacity of a transmission line up to two times the capacity compared to traditional conductors. HTLS conductors can operate continuously at 150-210oC and in emergency at 180-250oC (depending on the HTLS conductor). ACSR conductors operate continuously at 50-110oC and in emergency conditions at 110-150oC depending on the utility, line, and location. HTLS conductors have decreased sag characteristics of up to 33% compared to traditional ACSR conductors at 100oC and up to 22% at 180oC. In addition to what HTLS has to offer in terms of the thermal rating improvement, the possibility of using HTLS conductors to indirectly reduce tower height and compact the phases to increase the security limit is investigated. In addition, utilizing HTLS conductors to increase span length and decrease the number of transmission towers is investigated. The phase compaction or increased span length is accomplished by utilization of the improved physical sag characteristics of HTLS conductors.
High phase order (HPO) focuses on the ability to increase the power capacity for a given right of way. For example, a six phase line would have a thermal rating of approximately 173%, a security rating of approximately 289%, and the SIL would be approximately 300% of a double circuit three phase line with equal right of way and equal voltage line to line. In addition, this research focuses on algorithm and model development of HPO systems. A study of the impedance of HPO lines is presented. The line impedance matrices for some high phase order configurations are circulant Toeplitz matrices. Properties of circulant matrices are developed for the generalized sequence impedances of HPO lines. A method to calculate the sequence impedances utilizing unique distance parameter algorithms is presented. A novel method to design the sequence impedances to specifications is presented. Utilizing impedance matrices in circulant form, a generalized form of the sequence components transformation matrix is presented. A generalized voltage unbalance factor in discussed for HPO transmission lines. Algorithms to calculate the number of fault types and number of significant fault types for an n-phase system are presented. A discussion is presented on transposition of HPO transmission lines and a generalized fault analysis of a high phase order circuit is presented along with an HPO analysis program.
The work presented has the objective of increasing the use of rights of way for bulk power transmission through the use of innovative transmission technologies. The purpose of this dissertation is to lay down some of the building blocks and to help make the three technologies discussed practical applications in the future.
In this paper, a literature review is presented on the application of Bayesian networks applied in system reliability analysis. It is shown that Bayesian networks have become a popular modeling framework for system reliability analysis due to the benefits that Bayesian networks have the capability and flexibility to model complex systems, update the probability according to evidences and give a straightforward and compact graphical representation. Research on approaches for Bayesian network learning and inference are summarized. Two groups of models with multistate nodes were developed for scenarios from constant to continuous time to apply and contrast Bayesian networks with classical fault tree method. The expanded model discretized the continuous variables and provided failure related probability distribution over time.