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- All Subjects: Regression Analysis
- Creators: Aiken, Leona S.
Description
Data mining is increasing in importance in solving a variety of industry problems. Our initiative involves the estimation of resource requirements by skill set for future projects by mining and analyzing actual resource consumption data from past projects in the semiconductor industry. To achieve this goal we face difficulties like data with relevant consumption information but stored in different format and insufficient data about project attributes to interpret consumption data. Our first goal is to clean the historical data and organize it into meaningful structures for analysis. Once the preprocessing on data is completed, different data mining techniques like clustering is applied to find projects which involve resources of similar skillsets and which involve similar complexities and size. This results in "resource utilization templates" for groups of related projects from a resource consumption perspective. Then project characteristics are identified which generate this diversity in headcounts and skillsets. These characteristics are not currently contained in the data base and are elicited from the managers of historical projects. This represents an opportunity to improve the usefulness of the data collection system for the future. The ultimate goal is to match the product technical features with the resource requirement for projects in the past as a model to forecast resource requirements by skill set for future projects. The forecasting model is developed using linear regression with cross validation of the training data as the past project execution are relatively few in number. Acceptable levels of forecast accuracy are achieved relative to human experts' results and the tool is applied to forecast some future projects' resource demand.
ContributorsBhattacharya, Indrani (Author) / Sen, Arunabha (Thesis advisor) / Kempf, Karl G. (Thesis advisor) / Liu, Huan (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2013
Description
Coarsely grouped counts or frequencies are commonly used in the behavioral sciences. Grouped count and grouped frequency (GCGF) that are used as outcome variables often violate the assumptions of linear regression as well as models designed for categorical outcomes; there is no analytic model that is designed specifically to accommodate GCGF outcomes. The purpose of this dissertation was to compare the statistical performance of four regression models (linear regression, Poisson regression, ordinal logistic regression, and beta regression) that can be used when the outcome is a GCGF variable. A simulation study was used to determine the power, type I error, and confidence interval (CI) coverage rates for these models under different conditions. Mean structure, variance structure, effect size, continuous or binary predictor, and sample size were included in the factorial design. Mean structures reflected either a linear relationship or an exponential relationship between the predictor and the outcome. Variance structures reflected homoscedastic (as in linear regression), heteroscedastic (monotonically increasing) or heteroscedastic (increasing then decreasing) variance. Small to medium, large, and very large effect sizes were examined. Sample sizes were 100, 200, 500, and 1000. Results of the simulation study showed that ordinal logistic regression produced type I error, statistical power, and CI coverage rates that were consistently within acceptable limits. Linear regression produced type I error and statistical power that were within acceptable limits, but CI coverage was too low for several conditions important to the analysis of counts and frequencies. Poisson regression and beta regression displayed inflated type I error, low statistical power, and low CI coverage rates for nearly all conditions. All models produced unbiased estimates of the regression coefficient. Based on the statistical performance of the four models, ordinal logistic regression seems to be the preferred method for analyzing GCGF outcomes. Linear regression also performed well, but CI coverage was too low for conditions with an exponential mean structure and/or heteroscedastic variance. Some aspects of model prediction, such as model fit, were not assessed here; more research is necessary to determine which statistical model best captures the unique properties of GCGF outcomes.
ContributorsCoxe, Stefany (Author) / Aiken, Leona S. (Thesis advisor) / West, Stephen G. (Thesis advisor) / Mackinnon, David P (Committee member) / Reiser, Mark R. (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2012