Matching Items (3)
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- All Subjects: Mathematical Modeling
- Creators: Crook, Sharon
Description
Predicting resistant prostate cancer is critical for lowering medical costs and improving the quality of life of advanced prostate cancer patients. I formulate, compare, and analyze two mathematical models that aim to forecast future levels of prostate-specific antigen (PSA). I accomplish these tasks by employing clinical data of locally advanced prostate cancer patients undergoing androgen deprivation therapy (ADT). I demonstrate that the inverse problem of parameter estimation might be too complicated and simply relying on data fitting can give incorrect conclusions, since there is a large error in parameter values estimated and parameters might be unidentifiable. I provide confidence intervals to give estimate forecasts using data assimilation via an ensemble Kalman Filter. Using the ensemble Kalman Filter, I perform dual estimation of parameters and state variables to test the prediction accuracy of the models. Finally, I present a novel model with time delay and a delay-dependent parameter. I provide a geometric stability result to study the behavior of this model and show that the inclusion of time delay may improve the accuracy of predictions. Also, I demonstrate with clinical data that the inclusion of the delay-dependent parameter facilitates the identification and estimation of parameters.
ContributorsBaez, Javier (Author) / Kuang, Yang (Thesis advisor) / Kostelich, Eric (Committee member) / Crook, Sharon (Committee member) / Gardner, Carl (Committee member) / Nagy, John (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2017
Description
A description of numerical and analytical work pertaining to models that describe the growth and progression of glioblastoma multiforme (GBM), an aggressive form of primary brain cancer. Two reaction-diffusion models are used: the Fisher-Kolmogorov-Petrovsky-Piskunov equation and a 2-population model that divides the tumor into actively proliferating and quiescent (or necrotic) cells. The numerical portion of this work (chapter 2) focuses on simulating GBM expansion in patients undergoing treatment for recurrence of tumor following initial surgery. The models are simulated on 3-dimensional brain geometries derived from magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) scans provided by the Barrow Neurological Institute. The study consists of 17 clinical time intervals across 10 patients that have been followed in detail, each of whom shows significant progression of tumor over a period of 1 to 3 months on sequential follow up scans. A Taguchi sampling design is implemented to estimate the variability of the predicted tumors to using 144 different choices of model parameters. In 9 cases, model parameters can be identified such that the simulated tumor contains at least 40 percent of the volume of the observed tumor. In the analytical portion of the paper (chapters 3 and 4), a positively invariant region for our 2-population model is identified. Then, a rigorous derivation of the critical patch size associated with the model is performed. The critical patch (KISS) size is the minimum habitat size needed for a population to survive in a region. Habitats larger than the critical patch size allow a population to persist, while smaller habitats lead to extinction. The critical patch size of the 2-population model is consistent with that of the Fisher-Kolmogorov-Petrovsky-Piskunov equation, one of the first reaction-diffusion models proposed for GBM. The critical patch size may indicate that GBM tumors have a minimum size depending on the location in the brain. A theoretical relationship between the size of a GBM tumor at steady-state and its maximum cell density is also derived, which has potential applications for patient-specific parameter estimation based on magnetic resonance imaging data.
ContributorsHarris, Duane C. (Author) / Kuang, Yang (Thesis advisor) / Kostelich, Eric J. (Thesis advisor) / Preul, Mark C. (Committee member) / Crook, Sharon (Committee member) / Gardner, Carl (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2023
Description
The representation of a patient’s characteristics as the parameters of a model is a key component in many studies of personalized medicine, where the underlying mathematical models are used to describe, explain, and forecast the course of treatment. In this context, clinical observations form the bridge between the mathematical frameworks and applications. However, the formulation and theoretical studies of the models and the clinical studies are often not completely compatible, which is one of the main obstacles in the application of mathematical models in practice. The goal of my study is to extend a mathematical framework to model prostate cancer based mainly on the concept of cell-quota within an evolutionary framework and to study the relevant aspects for the model to gain useful insights in practice. Specifically, the first aim is to construct a mathematical model that can explain and predict the observed clinical data under various treatment combinations. The second aim is to find a fundamental model structure that can capture the dynamics of cancer progression within a realistic set of data. Finally, relevant clinical aspects such as how the patient's parameters change over the course of treatment and how to incorporate treatment optimization within a framework of uncertainty quantification, will be examined to construct a useful framework in practice.
ContributorsPhan, Tin (Author) / Kuang, Yang (Thesis advisor) / Kostelich, Eric J (Committee member) / Crook, Sharon (Committee member) / Maley, Carlo (Committee member) / Bryce, Alan (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2021