Matching Items (15)
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- Creators: School of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences
- Creators: Armbruster, Dieter
Description
The main objective of this research is to develop an integrated method to study emergent behavior and consequences of evolution and adaptation in engineered complex adaptive systems (ECASs). A multi-layer conceptual framework and modeling approach including behavioral and structural aspects is provided to describe the structure of a class of engineered complex systems and predict their future adaptive patterns. The approach allows the examination of complexity in the structure and the behavior of components as a result of their connections and in relation to their environment. This research describes and uses the major differences of natural complex adaptive systems (CASs) with artificial/engineered CASs to build a framework and platform for ECAS. While this framework focuses on the critical factors of an engineered system, it also enables one to synthetically employ engineering and mathematical models to analyze and measure complexity in such systems. In this way concepts of complex systems science are adapted to management science and system of systems engineering. In particular an integrated consumer-based optimization and agent-based modeling (ABM) platform is presented that enables managers to predict and partially control patterns of behaviors in ECASs. Demonstrated on the U.S. electricity markets, ABM is integrated with normative and subjective decision behavior recommended by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) and Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC). The approach integrates social networks, social science, complexity theory, and diffusion theory. Furthermore, it has unique and significant contribution in exploring and representing concrete managerial insights for ECASs and offering new optimized actions and modeling paradigms in agent-based simulation.
ContributorsHaghnevis, Moeed (Author) / Askin, Ronald G. (Thesis advisor) / Armbruster, Dieter (Thesis advisor) / Mirchandani, Pitu (Committee member) / Wu, Tong (Committee member) / Hedman, Kory (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2013
Description
Modern measurement schemes for linear dynamical systems are typically designed so that different sensors can be scheduled to be used at each time step. To determine which sensors to use, various metrics have been suggested. One possible such metric is the observability of the system. Observability is a binary condition determining whether a finite number of measurements suffice to recover the initial state. However to employ observability for sensor scheduling, the binary definition needs to be expanded so that one can measure how observable a system is with a particular measurement scheme, i.e. one needs a metric of observability. Most methods utilizing an observability metric are about sensor selection and not for sensor scheduling. In this dissertation we present a new approach to utilize the observability for sensor scheduling by employing the condition number of the observability matrix as the metric and using column subset selection to create an algorithm to choose which sensors to use at each time step. To this end we use a rank revealing QR factorization algorithm to select sensors. Several numerical experiments are used to demonstrate the performance of the proposed scheme.
ContributorsIlkturk, Utku (Author) / Gelb, Anne (Thesis advisor) / Platte, Rodrigo (Thesis advisor) / Cochran, Douglas (Committee member) / Renaut, Rosemary (Committee member) / Armbruster, Dieter (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2015
Description
Glioblastoma multiforme (GBM) is a malignant, aggressive and infiltrative cancer of the central nervous system with a median survival of 14.6 months with standard care. Diagnosis of GBM is made using medical imaging such as magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) or computed tomography (CT). Treatment is informed by medical images and includes chemotherapy, radiation therapy, and surgical removal if the tumor is surgically accessible. Treatment seldom results in a significant increase in longevity, partly due to the lack of precise information regarding tumor size and location. This lack of information arises from the physical limitations of MR and CT imaging coupled with the diffusive nature of glioblastoma tumors. GBM tumor cells can migrate far beyond the visible boundaries of the tumor and will result in a recurring tumor if not killed or removed. Since medical images are the only readily available information about the tumor, we aim to improve mathematical models of tumor growth to better estimate the missing information. Particularly, we investigate the effect of random variation in tumor cell behavior (anisotropy) using stochastic parameterizations of an established proliferation-diffusion model of tumor growth. To evaluate the performance of our mathematical model, we use MR images from an animal model consisting of Murine GL261 tumors implanted in immunocompetent mice, which provides consistency in tumor initiation and location, immune response, genetic variation, and treatment. Compared to non-stochastic simulations, stochastic simulations showed improved volume accuracy when proliferation variability was high, but diffusion variability was found to only marginally affect tumor volume estimates. Neither proliferation nor diffusion variability significantly affected the spatial distribution accuracy of the simulations. While certain cases of stochastic parameterizations improved volume accuracy, they failed to significantly improve simulation accuracy overall. Both the non-stochastic and stochastic simulations failed to achieve over 75% spatial distribution accuracy, suggesting that the underlying structure of the model fails to capture one or more biological processes that affect tumor growth. Two biological features that are candidates for further investigation are angiogenesis and anisotropy resulting from differences between white and gray matter. Time-dependent proliferation and diffusion terms could be introduced to model angiogenesis, and diffusion weighed imaging (DTI) could be used to differentiate between white and gray matter, which might allow for improved estimates brain anisotropy.
ContributorsAnderies, Barrett James (Author) / Kostelich, Eric (Thesis director) / Kuang, Yang (Committee member) / Stepien, Tracy (Committee member) / Harrington Bioengineering Program (Contributor) / School of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2016-05
Description
A model has been developed to modify Euler-Bernoulli beam theory for wooden beams, using visible properties of wood knot-defects. Treating knots in a beam as a system of two ellipses that change the local bending stiffness has been shown to improve the fit of a theoretical beam displacement function to edge-line deflection data extracted from digital imagery of experimentally loaded beams. In addition, an Ellipse Logistic Model (ELM) has been proposed, using L1-regularized logistic regression, to predict the impact of a knot on the displacement of a beam. By classifying a knot as severely positive or negative, vs. mildly positive or negative, ELM can classify knots that lead to large changes to beam deflection, while not over-emphasizing knots that may not be a problem. Using ELM with a regression-fit Young's Modulus on three-point bending of Douglass Fir, it is possible estimate the effects a knot will have on the shape of the resulting displacement curve.
ContributorsSexton, Thurston Bryant (Author) / Takahashi, Timothy (Thesis director) / Jones, Donald (Committee member) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor) / Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering Program (Contributor) / School of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences (Contributor) / School of Human Evolution and Social Change (Contributor)
Created2015-05
Description
Glioblastoma Multiforme (GBM) is an aggressive and deadly form of brain cancer with a median survival time of about a year with treatment. Due to the aggressive nature of these tumors and the tendency of gliomas to follow white matter tracks in the brain, each tumor mass has a unique growth pattern. Consequently it is difficult for neurosurgeons to anticipate where the tumor will spread in the brain, making treatment planning difficult. Archival patient data including MRI scans depicting the progress of tumors have been helpful in developing a model to predict Glioblastoma proliferation, but limited scans per patient make the tumor growth rate difficult to determine. Furthermore, patient treatment between scan points can significantly compound the challenge of accurately predicting the tumor growth. A partnership with Barrow Neurological Institute has allowed murine studies to be conducted in order to closely observe tumor growth and potentially improve the current model to more closely resemble intermittent stages of GBM growth without treatment effects.
ContributorsSnyder, Lena Haley (Author) / Kostelich, Eric (Thesis director) / Frakes, David (Committee member) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor) / School of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences (Contributor) / Harrington Bioengineering Program (Contributor)
Created2014-05
Description
Mortality of 1918 influenza virus was high, partly due to bacteria coinfections. We characterize pandemic mortality in Arizona, which had high prevalence of tuberculosis. We applied regressions to over 35,000 data points to estimate the basic reproduction number and excess mortality. Age-specific mortality curves show elevated mortality for all age groups, especially the young, and senior sparing effects. The low value for reproduction number indicates that transmissibility was moderately low.
ContributorsJenner, Melinda Eva (Author) / Chowell-Puente, Gerardo (Thesis director) / Kostelich, Eric (Committee member) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor) / School of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences (Contributor) / School of Life Sciences (Contributor)
Created2015-05
Description
Pogonomyrmex californicus (a species of harvester ant) colonies typically have anywhere from one to five queens. A queen can control the ratio of female to male offspring she produces, field research indicating that this ratio is genetically hardwired and does not change over time relative to other queens. Further, a queen has an individual reproductive advantage if she has a small reproductive ratio. A colony, however, has a reproductive advantage if it has queens with large ratios, as these queens produce many female workers to further colony success. We have developed an agent-based model to analyze the "cheating" phenotype observed in field research, in which queens extend their lifespans by producing disproportionately many male offspring. The model generates phenotypes and simulates years of reproductive cycles. The results allow us to examine the surviving phenotypes and determine conditions under which a cheating phenotype has an evolutionary advantage. Conditions generating a bimodal steady state solution would indicate a cheating phenotype's ability to invade a cooperative population.
ContributorsEngel, Lauren Marie Agnes (Author) / Armbruster, Dieter (Thesis director) / Fewell, Jennifer (Committee member) / School of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2017-05
Description
This paper is an exploration of numerical optimization as it applies to the consumer choice problem. Suggested algorithms are intended to compute solutions to the Marshallian problem, and some can extend to the dual given the suggested modifications. Each method seeks to either weaken the sufficient conditions for optimization, converge to a solution more efficiently, or describe additional properties of the decision space. The purpose of this paper is to explore constrained quasiconvex programming in a less complicated environment by design of Marshallian constraints.
ContributorsKnipp, Charles (Author) / Reffett, Kevin (Thesis director) / Leiva-Bertran, Fernando (Committee member) / Department of Economics (Contributor) / School of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2021-05
DescriptionUnderstanding the evolution of opinions is a delicate task as the dynamics of how one changes their opinion based on their interactions with others are unclear.
ContributorsWeber, Dylan (Author) / Motsch, Sebastien (Thesis advisor) / Lanchier, Nicolas (Committee member) / Platte, Rodrigo (Committee member) / Armbruster, Dieter (Committee member) / Fricks, John (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2021
Description
In this project we focus on COVID-19 in a university setting. Arizona State University has a very large population on the Tempe Campus. With the emergence of diseases such as COVID-19, it is very important to track how such a disease spreads within that type of community. This is vital for containment measures and the safety of everyone involved. We found in the literature several epidemiology models that utilize differential equations for tracking a spread of a disease. However, our goal is to provide a granular look at how disease may spread through contact in a classroom. This thesis models a single ASU classroom and tracks the spread of a disease. It is important to note that our variables and declarations are not aligned with COVID-19 or any other specific disease but are chosen to exemplify the impact of some key parameters on the epidemic size. We found that a smaller transmissibility alongside a more spread-out classroom of agents resulted in fewer infections overall. There are many extensions to this model that are needed in order to take what we have demonstrated and align those ideas with COVID-19 and it’s spread at ASU. However, this model successfully demonstrates a spread of disease through single-classroom interaction, which is the key component for any university campus disease transmission model.
ContributorsJoseph, Mariam (Author) / Bartko, Ezri (Co-author) / Sabuwala, Sana (Co-author) / Milner, Fabio (Thesis director) / O'Keefe, Kelly (Committee member) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor) / School of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences (Contributor) / Division of Teacher Preparation (Contributor)
Created2022-12