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A Study of Win Expectancy Estimators in Major League Baseball

Description

In recent years, advanced metrics have dominated the game of Major League Baseball. One such metric, the Pythagorean Win-Loss Formula, is commonly used by fans, reporters, analysts and teams alike to use a team’s runs scored and runs allowed to estimate their expected winning percentage. However, this method is not…

In recent years, advanced metrics have dominated the game of Major League Baseball. One such metric, the Pythagorean Win-Loss Formula, is commonly used by fans, reporters, analysts and teams alike to use a team’s runs scored and runs allowed to estimate their expected winning percentage. However, this method is not perfect, and shows notable room for improvement. One such area that could be improved is its ability to be affected drastically by a single blowout game, a game in which one team significantly outscores their opponent. We hypothesize that meaningless runs scored in blowouts are harming the predictive power of Pythagorean Win-Loss and similar win expectancy statistics such as the Linear Formula for Baseball and BaseRuns. We developed a win probability-based cutoff approach that tallied the score of each game once a certain win probability threshold was passed, effectively removing those meaningless runs from a team’s season-long runs scored and runs allowed totals. These truncated totals were then inserted into the Pythagorean Win-Loss and Linear Formulas and tested against the base models. The preliminary results show that, while certain runs are more meaningful than others depending on the situation in which they are scored, the base models more accurately predicted future record than our truncated versions. For now, there is not enough evidence to either confirm or reject our hypothesis. In this paper, we suggest several potential improvement strategies for the results. At the end, we address how these results speak to the importance of responsibility and restraint when using advanced statistics within reporting.

ContributorsIversen, Joshua Allen (Author) / Satpathy, Asish (Thesis director) / Kurland, Brett (Committee member) / Department of Information Systems (Contributor) / Walter Cronkite School of Journalism and Mass Comm (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)

Created2021-05

Reliance Dashboard: An Automated Real Estate Data Analysis Dashboard

Description

Investment real estate is unique among similar financial instruments by nature of each property's internal complexities and interaction with the external economy. Where a majority of tradable assets are static goods within a dynamic market, real estate investments are dynamic goods within a dynamic market. Furthermore, investment real estate, particularly…

Investment real estate is unique among similar financial instruments by nature of each property's internal complexities and interaction with the external economy. Where a majority of tradable assets are static goods within a dynamic market, real estate investments are dynamic goods within a dynamic market. Furthermore, investment real estate, particularly commercial properties, not only interacts with the surrounding economy, it reflects it. Alive with tenancy, each and every commercial investment property provides a microeconomic view of businesses that make up the local economy. Management of commercial investment real estate captures this economic snapshot in a unique abundance of untapped statistical data. While analysis of such data is undeniably valuable, the efforts involved with this process are time consuming. Given this unutilized potential our team has develop proprietary software to analyze this data and communicate the results automatically though and easy to use interface. We have worked with a local real estate property management and ownership firm, Reliance Management, to develop this system through the use of their current, historical, and future data. Our team has also built a relationship with the executives of Reliance Management to review functionality and pertinence of the system we have dubbed, Reliance Dashboard.

ContributorsBurton, Daryl (Co-author) / Workman, Jack (Co-author) / LePine, Marcie (Thesis director) / Atkinson, Robert (Committee member) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor) / Department of Finance (Contributor) / Department of Management (Contributor) / Computer Science and Engineering Program (Contributor)

Created2015-05

Value of Twitter: Using Text Mining Methods to Gain Insight into the 2016 Presidential Race

Description

This project analyzes the tweets from the 2016 US Presidential Candidates' personal Twitter accounts. The goal is to define distinct patterns and differences between candidates and parties use of social media as a platform. The data spans the period of September 2015 to March 2016, which was during the primary…

This project analyzes the tweets from the 2016 US Presidential Candidates' personal Twitter accounts. The goal is to define distinct patterns and differences between candidates and parties use of social media as a platform. The data spans the period of September 2015 to March 2016, which was during the primary races for the Republicans and Democrats. The overall purpose of this project is to contribute to finding new ways of driving value from social media, in particular Twitter.

ContributorsMortimer, Schuyler Kenneth (Author) / Simon, Alan (Thesis director) / Mousavi, Seyedreza (Committee member) / Department of Information Systems (Contributor) / Department of Supply Chain Management (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)

Created2016-05

Monocular

Description

Monocular is a user engagement application that offers a website owner the opportunity to track user behavior and use the data to better understand the site's strengths and weaknesses in terms of user satisfaction and motivation. This data allows the customer to make improvements to a website, resulting in a…

Monocular is a user engagement application that offers a website owner the opportunity to track user behavior and use the data to better understand the site's strengths and weaknesses in terms of user satisfaction and motivation. This data allows the customer to make improvements to a website, resulting in a better user experience and potential for an improved bottom line.

ContributorsHooke, Wade (Co-author) / Ortiz-Monasterio, Diego (Co-author) / Clark, Joseph (Thesis director) / Prince, Linda (Committee member) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor) / Department of Information Systems (Contributor) / Department of Supply Chain Management (Contributor) / W. P. Carey School of Business (Contributor)

Created2014-05

The Other 50%: Technology and Analytics in Soccer

Description

The beautiful game is unpredictable. Arguably half of soccer is entirely out of our control, instead being determined by a simple concept: luck. But what of the other 50%? Ultimately, the goal of the rapidly-advancing technologies and analytics in on-field sports performance is to maximize the elements that we \u2014…

The beautiful game is unpredictable. Arguably half of soccer is entirely out of our control, instead being determined by a simple concept: luck. But what of the other 50%? Ultimately, the goal of the rapidly-advancing technologies and analytics in on-field sports performance is to maximize the elements that we \u2014 the coaches, players, decision-makers, and analysts \u2014 truly control. Once perceived as too mathematical and systemized, contradicting coaches' intuitions, sports sciences are burgeoning in the sports arena both in applied and mainstream popularity. While the industry has its critics and is far shy of its pinnacle, its advancements and successes cannot be ignored. From the training ground to match day decision-making, analytics are embedded in soccer and sport. Technology and analytics are vastly utilized throughout sporting organizations across a myriad of sports and purposes: scouting and drafting, fan experience, ticketing, etc. However, while these areas must be addressed in discussing the success of analytics in assessing situations and reducing uncertainty, my central thesis relates to the technological capabilities and corresponding analytical tools utilized to identify, assess, and improve on-field soccer performance: match analysis. This paper's core focuses on optimizing performance in soccer players in three specific areas of performance: technical abilities and tactics, physiology, and neuroscience.

ContributorsHeckendorn, Jason Farrell (Author) / Eaton, John (Thesis director) / Ostrom, Amy (Committee member) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor) / Department of Marketing (Contributor) / W. P. Carey School of Business (Contributor) / Department of Management (Contributor)

Created2014-05

Home Advantage in Sports: The Value it Holds with COVID Restrictions

Description

Home advantage affects the game in almost all team sports across the world. Due to COVID and all of the precautions being taken to keep games played, more extensive research is able to be conducted about what factors truly go into creating a home advantage. Some common factors of home advantage…

Home advantage affects the game in almost all team sports across the world. Due to COVID and all of the precautions being taken to keep games played, more extensive research is able to be conducted about what factors truly go into creating a home advantage. Some common factors of home advantage include the crowd, facility familiarity, and travel. In the English Premier League, there are no fans allowed at any of the games; furthermore, in the NBA, a bubble was created at one neutral venue with no fans in attendance. Even with the NBA being at a neutral site, there was still a “home team” at every game. The sports betting industry struggled due to failing to shift betting lines in accordance with this decreased home advantage. With these leagues removing some of the factors that are frequently associated with home advantage, analysts are able to better see what the results would be of removing these variables. The purpose of this research is to determine if these adjustments made due to COVID had an impact on the home advantage in different leagues around the world, and if they did, to what extent. Individual game data from the past 10 seasons were used for analysis of both the NBA and the Premier League. The results show that there is a significant difference in win percentage between prior seasons and seasons behind closed doors. In addition to win percentage, many other game statistics see a significant shift as well. Overall, the significance of being the home team disappears in games following the COVID-19 break.

ContributorsOsborne, Ashley A (Author) / Sopha, Matthew (Thesis director) / McIntosh, Daniel (Committee member) / Department of Information Systems (Contributor) / Department of Marketing (Contributor) / WPC Graduate Programs (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)

Created2021-05

What Makes a Great Pom Routine? A Study with the Arizona State University Dance Team

Description

Should choreographing a dance routine be completely subjective or should it include some objective assessment? Dance is a performing art with the purpose of expressing an emotion or idea. In literature, dance is approached from solely the artistic side, using principles of art like movement, pattern, and rhythm. Art and…

Should choreographing a dance routine be completely subjective or should it include some objective assessment? Dance is a performing art with the purpose of expressing an emotion or idea. In literature, dance is approached from solely the artistic side, using principles of art like movement, pattern, and rhythm. Art and science are often pinned against one another; art is considered subjective while science considered objective. Art tries to express knowledge while science aims to acquire knowledge. However, the two disciplines relate in their effort to understand the world. Although their intended audiences are contrasting, their goals are essentially the same. Considering this relation, my thesis will use both art and science to quantify elements of pom routines to create objective data to be used in the subjective choreography process. My project will look at the collegiate dance world and assess routines that have placed well at UDA College Dance Team National Championships. This research investigates how inclusion of certain elements adds value to the pom routines performed. I will then take what I have analyzed and gathered from extensive research on these successful routines and choreograph my own routine for my college dance team to compete in the 2020 UDA College Dance Team National Championship. With proper preparation and inclusion of the correct elements that were found in other winning routines, the Arizona State University Dance Team will place well and better than last year’s eighth place.

ContributorsHolland, Haylee Aliyah (Author) / Hudson, James G. (Thesis director) / Caryl, Bianca (Committee member) / Harrington Bioengineering Program (Contributor) / Dean, W.P. Carey School of Business (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)

Created2020-05

Digital Content Strategy: Improving the Online Audience for a Disney College Club

Description

This project examines and builds a digital strategy for a college student-run organization, The Mouseketeers @ ASU, at Arizona State University. The strategy aimed to improve the club’s audience and engagement online and ultimately in person. The Mouseketeers @ ASU assists students with finding careers and connections within the Walt…

This project examines and builds a digital strategy for a college student-run organization, The Mouseketeers @ ASU, at Arizona State University. The strategy aimed to improve the club’s audience and engagement online and ultimately in person. The Mouseketeers @ ASU assists students with finding careers and connections within the Walt Disney Company while also bringing together students with similar interests. By identifying key interests of the target audience and combining this with numerous preferred social media techniques, the club will gain sources and participation through a new audience. Key components of this thesis are the creation of a new website and the use of three social media platforms. Because the internet is always changing, the analytics are taken from each of these platforms to always improve the overall strategy in order to reach the goal.

ContributorsMcdaniel, Caitlynn Belle (Co-author) / McDaniel, Caitlynn (Co-author) / Bonilla, Luis (Thesis director) / Turner, Brian (Committee member) / Walter Cronkite School of Journalism & Mass Comm (Contributor, Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)

Created2020-05

Analysis of Santa Monica Water Usage Data for Water Conservation

Description

Historically, per capita water demand has tended to increase proportionately with population growth. However, the last two decades have exhibited a different trend; per capita water usage is declining despite a growing economy and population. Subsequently, city planners and water suppliers have been struggling to understand this new trend and…

Historically, per capita water demand has tended to increase proportionately with population growth. However, the last two decades have exhibited a different trend; per capita water usage is declining despite a growing economy and population. Subsequently, city planners and water suppliers have been struggling to understand this new trend and whether it will continue over the coming years. This leads to inefficient water management practices as well as flawed water storage design, both of which have adverse impacts on the economy and environment. Water usage data, provided by the city of Santa Monica, was analyzed using a combination of hydro-climatic and demographic variables to dissect these trends and variation in usage. The data proved to be tremendously difficult to work with; several values were missing or erroneously reported, and additional variables had to be brought from external sources to help explain the variation. Upon completion of the data processing, several statistical techniques including regression and clustering models were built to identify potential correlations and understand the consumers’ behavior. The regression models highlighted temperature and precipitation as significant stimuli of water usage, while the cluster models emphasized high volume consumers and their respective demographic traits. However, the overall model accuracy and fit was very poor for the models due to the inadequate quality of data collection and management. The imprecise measurement process for recording water usage along with varying levels of granularity across the different variables prevented the models from revealing meaningful associations. Moving forward, smart meter technology needs to be considered as it accurately captures real-time water usage and transmits the information to data hubs which then implement predictive analytics to provide updated trends. This efficient system will allow cities across the nation to stay abreast of future water usage developments and conserve time, resources, and the environment.

ContributorsPendyala, Kiran Vinaysai (Author) / Garcia, Margaret (Thesis director) / Stufken, John (Committee member) / School of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)

Created2019-05

Investigating the Relationship between Neighborhood Socioeconomic Status and Proximity to Public Services

Description

With growing levels of income inequality in the United States, it remains as important as ever to ensure indispensable public services are readily available to all members of society. This paper investigates four forms of public services (schools, libraries, fire stations, and police stations), first by researching the background of…

With growing levels of income inequality in the United States, it remains as important as ever to ensure indispensable public services are readily available to all members of society. This paper investigates four forms of public services (schools, libraries, fire stations, and police stations), first by researching the background of these services and their relation to poverty, and then by conducting geospatial and regression analysis. The author uses Esri's ArcGIS Pro software to quantify the proximity to public services from urban American neighborhoods (census tracts in the cities of Phoenix and Chicago). Afterwards, the measures indicating proximity are compared to the socioeconomic statuses of neighborhoods using regression analysis. The results indicate that pure proximity to these four services is not necessarily correlated to socioeconomic status. While the paper does uncover some correlations, such as a relationship between school quality and socioeconomic status, the majority of the findings negate the author's hypothesis and show that, in Phoenix and Chicago, there is not much discrepancy between neighborhoods and the extent to which they are able to access vital government-funded services.

ContributorsNorbury, Adam Charles (Author) / Simon, Alan (Thesis director) / Simon, Phil (Committee member) / Department of Information Systems (Contributor) / Department of English (Contributor) / Department of Economics (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)

Created2018-05

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