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This study aims to combine the wisdom of crowds with ML to make more accurate stock price predictions for a select set of stocks. Different from prior works, this study uses different input elicitation techniques to improve crowd performance. In addition, machine learning is used to support the crowd. The

This study aims to combine the wisdom of crowds with ML to make more accurate stock price predictions for a select set of stocks. Different from prior works, this study uses different input elicitation techniques to improve crowd performance. In addition, machine learning is used to support the crowd. The influence of ML on the crowd is tested by priming participants with suggestions from an ML model. Lastly, the market conditions and stock popularity is observed to better understand crowd behavior.
ContributorsBhogaraju, Harika (Author) / Escobedo, Adolfo R (Thesis director) / Meuth, Ryan (Committee member) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor) / Computer Science and Engineering Program (Contributor)
Created2022-12
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This project aims to incorporate the aspect of sentiment analysis into traditional stock analysis to enhance stock rating predictions by applying a reliance on the opinion of various stocks from the Internet. Headlines from eight major news publications and conversations from Yahoo! Finance’s “Conversations” feature were parsed through the Valence

This project aims to incorporate the aspect of sentiment analysis into traditional stock analysis to enhance stock rating predictions by applying a reliance on the opinion of various stocks from the Internet. Headlines from eight major news publications and conversations from Yahoo! Finance’s “Conversations” feature were parsed through the Valence Aware Dictionary for Sentiment Reasoning (VADER) natural language processing package to determine numerical polarities which represented positivity or negativity for a given stock ticker. These generated polarities were paired with stock metrics typically observed by stock analysts as the feature set for a Logistic Regression machine learning model. The model was trained on roughly 1500 major stocks to determine a binary classification between a “Buy” or “Not Buy” rating for each stock, and the results of the model were inserted into the back-end of the Agora Web UI which emulates search engine behavior specifically for stocks found in NYSE and NASDAQ. The model reported an accuracy of 82.5% and for most major stocks, the model’s prediction correlated with stock analysts’ ratings. Given the volatility of the stock market and the propensity for hive-mind behavior in online forums, the performance of the Logistic Regression model would benefit from incorporating historical stock data and more sources of opinion to balance any subjectivity in the model.

ContributorsRamaraju, Venkat (Author) / Rao, Jayanth (Co-author) / Bansal, Ajay (Thesis director) / Smith, James (Committee member) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor) / Computer Science and Engineering Program (Contributor)
Created2021-12
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Description
Behavioral economics suggests that emotions can affect an individual’s decision making. Recent research on this idea’s application on large societies hints that there may exist some correlation or maybe even some causation relationship between public sentiment—at least what can be pulled from Twitter—and the movement of the stock market. One

Behavioral economics suggests that emotions can affect an individual’s decision making. Recent research on this idea’s application on large societies hints that there may exist some correlation or maybe even some causation relationship between public sentiment—at least what can be pulled from Twitter—and the movement of the stock market. One major result of consistent research on whether or not public sentiment can predict the movement of the stock market is that public sentiment, as a feature, is becoming more and more valid as a variable for stock-market-based machine learning models. While raw values typically serve as invaluable points of data, when training a model, many choose to “engineer” new features for their models—deriving rates of change or range values to improve model accuracy.
Since it doesn’t hurt to attempt to utilize feature extracted values to improve a model (if things don’t work out, one can always use their original features), the question may arise: how could the results of feature extraction on values such as sentiment affect a model’s ability to predict the movement of the stock market? This paper attempts to shine some light on to what the answer could be by deriving TextBlob sentiment values from Twitter data, and using Granger Causality Tests and logistic and linear regression to test if there exist a correlation or causation between the stock market and features extracted from public sentiment.
ContributorsYu, James (Author) / Meuth, Ryan (Thesis director) / Nakamura, Mutsumi (Committee member) / Computer Science and Engineering Program (Contributor, Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2020-05