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- All Subjects: Civil Engineering
- Creators: Zapata, Claudia E
- Member of: Theses and Dissertations
- Resource Type: Text
The activity-based approach to travel demand analysis and modeling, which has been developed over the past 30 years, has received tremendous success in transportation planning and policy analysis issues, capturing the multi-way joint relationships among socio-demographic, economic, land use characteristics, activity participation, and travel behavior. The development of synthesizing population with an array of socio-demographic and socio-economic attributes has drawn remarkable attention due to privacy and cost constraints in collecting and disclosing full scale data. Although, there has been enormous progress in producing synthetic population, there has been less progress in the development of population evolution modeling arena to forecast future year population. The objective of this dissertation is to develop a well-structured full-fledged demographic evolution modeling system, capturing migration dynamics and evolution of person level attributes, introducing the concept of new household formations and apprehending the dynamics of household level long-term choices over time. A comprehensive study has been conducted on demography, sociology, anthropology, economics and transportation engineering area to better understand the dynamics of evolutionary activities over time and their impacts in travel behavior. This dissertation describes the methodology and the conceptual framework, and the development of model components. Demographic, socio-economic, and land use data from American Community Survey, National Household Travel Survey, Census PUMS, United States Time Series Economic Dynamic data and United States Center for Disease Control and Prevention have been used in this research. The entire modeling system has been implemented and coded using programming language to develop the population evolution module named `PopEvol' into a computer simulation environment. The module then has been demonstrated for a portion of Maricopa County area in Arizona to predict the milestone year population to check the accuracy of forecasting. The module has also been used to evolve the base year population for next 15 years and the evolutionary trend has been investigated.
This study presents the results of one of the first attempts to characterize the pore water pressure response of soils subjected to traffic loading under saturated and unsaturated conditions. It is widely known that pore water pressure develops within the soil pores as a response to external stimulus. Also, it has been recognized that the development of pores water pressure contributes to the degradation of the resilient modulus of unbound materials. In the last decades several efforts have been directed to model the effect of air and water pore pressures upon resilient modulus. However, none of them consider dynamic variations in pressures but rather are based on equilibrium values corresponding to initial conditions. The measurement of this response is challenging especially in soils under unsaturated conditions. Models are needed not only to overcome testing limitations but also to understand the dynamic behavior of internal pore pressures that under critical conditions may even lead to failure. A testing program was conducted to characterize the pore water pressure response of a low plasticity fine clayey sand subjected to dynamic loading. The bulk stress, initial matric suction and dwelling time parameters were controlled and their effects were analyzed. The results were used to attempt models capable of predicting the accumulated excess pore pressure at any given time during the traffic loading and unloading phases. Important findings regarding the influence of the controlled variables challenge common beliefs. The accumulated excess pore water pressure was found to be higher for unsaturated soil specimens than for saturated soil specimens. The maximum pore water pressure always increased when the high bulk stress level was applied. Higher dwelling time was found to decelerate the accumulation of pore water pressure. In addition, it was found that the higher the dwelling time, the lower the maximum pore water pressure. It was concluded that upon further research, the proposed models may become a powerful tool not only to overcome testing limitations but also to enhance current design practices and to prevent soil failure due to excessive development of pore water pressure.