The activity-based approach to travel demand analysis and modeling, which has been developed over the past 30 years, has received tremendous success in transportation planning and policy analysis issues, capturing the multi-way joint relationships among socio-demographic, economic, land use characteristics, activity participation, and travel behavior. The development of synthesizing population with an array of socio-demographic and socio-economic attributes has drawn remarkable attention due to privacy and cost constraints in collecting and disclosing full scale data. Although, there has been enormous progress in producing synthetic population, there has been less progress in the development of population evolution modeling arena to forecast future year population. The objective of this dissertation is to develop a well-structured full-fledged demographic evolution modeling system, capturing migration dynamics and evolution of person level attributes, introducing the concept of new household formations and apprehending the dynamics of household level long-term choices over time. A comprehensive study has been conducted on demography, sociology, anthropology, economics and transportation engineering area to better understand the dynamics of evolutionary activities over time and their impacts in travel behavior. This dissertation describes the methodology and the conceptual framework, and the development of model components. Demographic, socio-economic, and land use data from American Community Survey, National Household Travel Survey, Census PUMS, United States Time Series Economic Dynamic data and United States Center for Disease Control and Prevention have been used in this research. The entire modeling system has been implemented and coded using programming language to develop the population evolution module named `PopEvol' into a computer simulation environment. The module then has been demonstrated for a portion of Maricopa County area in Arizona to predict the milestone year population to check the accuracy of forecasting. The module has also been used to evolve the base year population for next 15 years and the evolutionary trend has been investigated.

This study investigates the mastic level structure of asphalt concrete containing RAP materials. Locally sourced RAP material was screened and sieved to separate the coated fines (passing #200) from the remaining sizes. These binder coated fines were mixed with virgin filler at proportions commensurate with 0%, 10%, 30%, 50% and 100% RAP dosage levels. Mastics were prepared with these blended fillers and a PG 64-22 binder at a filler content of 27% by volume. Rheological experiments were conducted on the resulting composites as well as the constituents, virgin binder, solvent extracted RAP binder. The results from the dynamic modulus experiments showed an expected increase in stiffness with increase in dosage levels. These results were used to model the hypothesized structure of the composite. The study presented discusses the different micromechanical models employed, their applicability and suitability to correctly predict the blended mastic composite. The percentage of blending between virgin and RAP binder estimated using Herve and Zaoui model decreased with increase in RAP content.

A recent joint study by Arizona State University and the Arizona Department of Transportation (ADOT) was conducted to evaluate certain Warm Mix Asphalt (WMA) properties in the laboratory. WMA material was taken from an actual ADOT project that involved two WMA sections. The first section used a foamed-based WMA admixture, and the second section used a chemical-based WMA admixture. The rest of the project included control hot mix asphalt (HMA) mixture. The evaluation included testing of field-core specimens and laboratory compacted specimens. The laboratory specimens were compacted at two different temperatures; 270 °F (132 °C) and 310 °F (154 °C). The experimental plan included four laboratory tests: the dynamic modulus (E*), indirect tensile strength (IDT), moisture damage evaluation using AASHTO T-283 test, and the Hamburg Wheel-track Test. The dynamic modulus E* results of the field cores at 70 °F showed similar E* values for control HMA and foaming-based WMA mixtures; the E* values of the chemical-based WMA mixture were relatively higher. IDT test results of the field cores had comparable finding as the E* results. For the laboratory compacted specimens, both E* and IDT results indicated that decreasing the compaction temperatures from 310 °F to 270 °F did not have any negative effect on the material strength for both WMA mixtures; while the control HMA strength was affected to some extent. It was noticed that E* and IDT results of the chemical-based WMA field cores were high; however, the laboratory compacted specimens results didn't show the same tendency. The moisture sensitivity findings from TSR test disagreed with those of Hamburg test; while TSR results indicated relatively low values of about 60% for all three mixtures, Hamburg test results were quite excellent. In general, the results of this study indicated that both WMA mixes can be best evaluated through field compacted mixes/cores; the results of the laboratory compacted specimens were helpful to a certain extent. The dynamic moduli for the field-core specimens were higher than for those compacted in the laboratory. The moisture damage findings indicated that more investigations are needed to evaluate moisture damage susceptibility in field.

One of the main requirements of designing perpetual pavements is to determine the endurance limit of Hot Mix Asphalt (HMA). The purpose of this study was to validate the endurance limit for HMA using laboratory beam fatigue tests. A mathematical procedure was developed to determine the endurance limit of HMA due to healing that occurs during the rest periods between loading cycles. Relating healing to endurance limit makes this procedure unique compared to previous research projects that investigated these concepts separately. An extensive laboratory testing program, including 468 beam tests, was conducted according to AASHTO T321-03 test procedure. Six factors that affect the fatigue response of HMA were evaluated: binder type, binder content, air voids, test temperature, rest period and applied strain. The endurance limit was determined when no accumulated damage occurred indicating complete healing. Based on the test results, a first generation predictive model was developed to relate stiffness ratio to material properties. A second generation stiffness ratio model was also developed by replacing four factors (binder type, binder content, air voids, and temperature) with the initial stiffness of the mixture, which is a basic material property. The model also accounts for the nonlinear effects of the rest period and the applied strain on the healing and endurance limit. A third generation model was then developed by incorporation the number of loading cycles at different locations along the fatigue degradation curve for each test in order to account for the nonlinearity between stiffness ratio and loading cycles. In addition to predicting endurance limit, the model has the ability to predict the number of cycles to failure at any rest period and stiffness combination. The model was used to predict fatigue relationship curves for tests with rest period and determining the K1, K2, and K3 fatigue cracking coefficients. The three generation models predicted close endurance limit values ranging from 22 to 204 micro strains. After developing the third generation stiffness ratio model, the predicted endurance limit values were integrated in the strain-Nf fatigue relationships as a step toward incorporating the endurance limit in the MEPDG software. The results of this study can be used to design perpetual pavements that can sustain a large number of loads if traffic volumes and vehicle weights are controlled.

Pavement preservation is the practice of selecting and applying maintenance activities in order to extend pavement life, enhance performance, and ensure cost effectiveness. Pavement preservation methods should be applied before pavements display significant amounts of environmental distress. The long-term effectiveness of different pavement preservation techniques can be measured in terms of life extension, relative benefit, and benefit-cost ratio. Optimal timing of pavement preservation means that the given maintenance treatment is applied so that it will extend the life of the roadway for the longest possible period with the minimum cost. This document examines the effectiveness of chip seal treatment in four climatic zones in the United States. The Long-Term Pavement Performance database was used to extract roughness and traffic data, as well as the maintenance and rehabilitation histories of treated and untreated sections. The sections were categorized into smooth, medium, and rough pavements, based upon initial condition as indicated by the International Roughness Index. Pavement performance of treated and untreated sections was collectively modeled using exponential regression analysis. Effectiveness was evaluated in terms of life extension, relative benefit, and benefit-cost ratio. The results of the study verified the assumption that treated sections performed better than untreated sections. The results also showed that the life extension, relative benefit, and benefit cost ratio are highest for sections whose initial condition is smooth at the time of chip seal treatment. These same measures of effectiveness are lowest for pavements whose condition is rough at the time of treatment. Chip seal treatment effectiveness showed no correlation to climatic conditions or to traffic levels.