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- All Subjects: Civil Engineering
- Genre: Academic theses
- Creators: Chester, Mikhail V
- Member of: Theses and Dissertations
- Resource Type: Text
Description
Contrary to many previous travel demand forecasts there is increasing evidence that vehicle travel in developed countries may be peaking. The underlying causes of this peaking are still under much debate and there has been a mobilization of research, largely focused at the national scale, to study the explanatory drivers but research focused at the metropolitan scale, where transportation policy and planning are frequently decided, is relatively thin. Additionally, a majority of this research has focused on changes within the activity system without considering the impact transportation infrastructure has on overall travel demand. Using Los Angeles County California, we investigate Peak Car and whether the saturation of automobile infrastructure, in addition to societal and economic factors, may be a suppressing factor. After peaking in 2002, vehicle travel in Los Angeles County in 2010 was estimated at 78 billion and was 20.3 billion shy of projections made in 2002. The extent to which infrastructure saturation may contribute to Peak Car is evaluated by analyzing social and economic factors that may have impacted personal automobile usage over the last decade. This includes changing fuel prices, fuel economy, population growth, increased utilization of alternate transportation modes, changes in driver demographics , travel time and income levels. Summation of all assessed factors reveals there is at least some portion of the 20 billion VMT that is unexplained in all but the worst case scenario. We hypothesize that the unexplained remaining VMT may be explained by infrastructure supply constraints that result in suppression of travel. This finding has impacts on how we see the role of hard infrastructure systems in urban growth and we explore these impacts in the research.
ContributorsFraser, Andrew (Author) / Chester, Mikhail V (Thesis advisor) / Pendyala, Ram M. (Committee member) / Seager, Thomas P (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2014
Description
The environmental and economic assessment of neighborhood-scale transit-oriented urban form changes should include initial construction impacts through long-term use to fully understand the benefits and costs of smart growth policies. The long-term impacts of moving people closer to transit require the coupling of behavioral forecasting with environmental assessment. Using new light rail and bus rapid transit in Los Angeles, California as a case study, a life-cycle environmental and economic assessment is developed to assess the potential range of impacts resulting from mixed-use infill development. An integrated transportation and land use life-cycle assessment framework is developed to estimate energy consumption, air emissions, and economic (public, developer, and user) costs. Residential and commercial buildings, automobile travel, and transit operation changes are included and a 60-year forecast is developed that compares transit-oriented growth against growth in areas without close access to high-capacity transit service. The results show that commercial developments create the greatest potential for impact reductions followed by residential commute shifts to transit, both of which may be effected by access to high-capacity transit, reduced parking requirements, and developer incentives. Greenhouse gas emission reductions up to 470 Gg CO2-equivalents per year can be achieved with potential costs savings for TOD users. The potential for respiratory impacts (PM10-equivalents) and smog formation can be reduced by 28-35%. The shift from business-as-usual growth to transit-oriented development can decrease user costs by $3,100 per household per year over the building lifetime, despite higher rental costs within the mixed-use development.
ContributorsNahlik, Matthew (Author) / Chester, Mikhail V (Thesis advisor) / Pendyala, Ram (Committee member) / Fraser, Matthew (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2014
Description
Electricity infrastructure vulnerabilities were assessed for future heat waves due to climate change. Critical processes and component relationships were identified and characterized with consideration for the terminal event of service outages, including cascading failures in transmission-level components that can result in blackouts. The most critical dependency identified was the increase in peak electricity demand with higher air temperatures. Historical and future air temperatures were characterized within and across Los Angeles County, California (LAC) and Maricopa County (Phoenix), Arizona. LAC was identified as more vulnerable to heat waves than Phoenix due to a wider distribution of historical temperatures. Two approaches were developed to estimate peak demand based on air temperatures, a top-down statistical model and bottom-up spatial building energy model. Both approaches yielded similar results, in that peak demand should increase sub-linearly at temperatures above 40°C (104 °F) due to saturation in the coincidence of air conditioning (AC) duty cycles. Spatial projections for peak demand were developed for LAC to 2060 considering potential changes in population, building type, building efficiency, AC penetration, appliance efficiency, and air temperatures due climate change. These projections were spatially allocated to delivery system components (generation, transmission lines, and substations) to consider their vulnerability in terms of thermal de-rated capacity and weather adjusted load factor (load divided by capacity). Peak hour electricity demand was projected to increase in residential and commercial sectors by 0.2–6.5 GW (2–51%) by 2060. All grid components, except those near Santa Monica Beach, were projected to experience 2–20% capacity loss due to air temperatures exceeding 40 °C (104 °F). Based on scenario projections, and substation load factors for Southern California Edison (SCE), SCE will require 848—6,724 MW (4-32%) of additional substation capacity or peak shaving in its LAC service territories by 2060 to meet additional demand associated with population growth projections.
ContributorsBurillo, Daniel (Author) / Chester, Mikhail V (Thesis advisor) / Ruddell, Benjamin (Committee member) / Johnson, Nathan (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2018
Description
Energy use within urban building stocks is continuing to increase globally as populations expand and access to electricity improves. This projected increase in demand could require deployment of new generation capacity, but there is potential to offset some of this demand through modification of the buildings themselves. Building stocks are quasi-permanent infrastructures which have enduring influence on urban energy consumption, and research is needed to understand: 1) how development patterns constrain energy use decisions and 2) how cities can achieve energy and environmental goals given the constraints of the stock. This requires a thorough evaluation of both the growth of the stock and as well as the spatial distribution of use throughout the city. In this dissertation, a case study in Los Angeles County, California (LAC) is used to quantify urban growth, forecast future energy use under climate change, and to make recommendations for mitigating energy consumption increases. A reproducible methodological framework is included for application to other urban areas.
In LAC, residential electricity demand could increase as much as 55-68% between 2020 and 2060, and building technology lock-in has constricted the options for mitigating energy demand, as major changes to the building stock itself are not possible, as only a small portion of the stock is turned over every year. Aggressive and timely efficiency upgrades to residential appliances and building thermal shells can significantly offset the projected increases, potentially avoiding installation of new generation capacity, but regulations on new construction will likely be ineffectual due to the long residence time of the stock (60+ years and increasing). These findings can be extrapolated to other U.S. cities where the majority of urban expansion has already occurred, such as the older cities on the eastern coast. U.S. population is projected to increase 40% by 2060, with growth occurring in the warmer southern and western regions. In these growing cities, improving new construction buildings can help offset electricity demand increases before the city reaches the lock-in phase.
In LAC, residential electricity demand could increase as much as 55-68% between 2020 and 2060, and building technology lock-in has constricted the options for mitigating energy demand, as major changes to the building stock itself are not possible, as only a small portion of the stock is turned over every year. Aggressive and timely efficiency upgrades to residential appliances and building thermal shells can significantly offset the projected increases, potentially avoiding installation of new generation capacity, but regulations on new construction will likely be ineffectual due to the long residence time of the stock (60+ years and increasing). These findings can be extrapolated to other U.S. cities where the majority of urban expansion has already occurred, such as the older cities on the eastern coast. U.S. population is projected to increase 40% by 2060, with growth occurring in the warmer southern and western regions. In these growing cities, improving new construction buildings can help offset electricity demand increases before the city reaches the lock-in phase.
ContributorsReyna, Janet Lorel (Author) / Chester, Mikhail V (Thesis advisor) / Gurney, Kevin (Committee member) / Reddy, T. Agami (Committee member) / Rey, Sergio (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2016
Description
With high potential for automobiles to cause air pollution and greenhouse gas emissions, there is concern that automobiles accessing or egressing public transportation may cause emissions similar to regular automobile use. Due to limited literature and research that evaluates and discusses environmental impacts from first and last mile portions of transit trips, there is a lack of understanding on this topic. This research aims to comprehensively evaluate the life cycle impacts of first and last mile trips on multimodal transit. A case study of transit and automobile travel in the greater Los Angeles region is evaluated by using a comprehensive life cycle assessment combined with regional household travel survey data to evaluate first-last mile trip impacts in multimodal transit focusing on automobile trips accessing or egressing transit. First and last mile automobile trips were found to increase total multimodal transit trip emissions by 2 to 12 times (most extreme cases were carbon monoxide and volatile organic compounds). High amounts of coal-fired energy generation can cause electric propelled rail trips with automobile access or egress to have similar or more emissions (commonly greenhouse gases, sulfur dioxide, and mono-nitrogen oxides) than competing automobile trips, however, most criteria air pollutants occur remotely. Methods to reduce first-last mile impacts depend on the characteristics of the transit systems and may include promoting first-last mile carpooling, adjusting station parking pricing and availability, and increased emphasis on walking and biking paths in areas with low access-egress trip distances.
ContributorsHoehne, Christopher G (Author) / Chester, Mikhail V (Thesis advisor) / Salon, Deborah (Committee member) / Zhou, Xuesong (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2016
Description
The trend towards using recycled materials on new construction projects is growing as the cost for construction materials are ever increasing and the awareness of the responsibility we have to be good stewards of our environment is heightened. While recycled asphalt is sometimes used in pavements, its use as structural fill has been hindered by concern that it is susceptible to large long-term deformations (creep), preventing its use for a great many geotechnical applications. While asphalt/soil blends are often proposed as an alternative to 100% recycled asphalt fill, little data is available characterizing the geotechnical properties of recycled asphalt soil blends. In this dissertation, the geotechnical properties for five different recycled asphalt soil blends are characterized. Data includes the particle size distribution, plasticity index, creep, and shear strength for each blend. Blends with 0%, 25%, 50%, 75% and 100% recycled asphalt were tested. As the recycled asphalt material used for testing had particles sizes up to 1.5 inches, a large 18 inch diameter direct shear apparatus was used to determine the shear strength and creep characteristics of the material. The results of the testing program confirm that the creep potential of recycled asphalt is a geotechnical concern when the material is subjected to loads greater than 1500 pounds per square foot (psf). In addition, the test results demonstrate that the amount of soil blended with the recycled asphalt can greatly influence the creep and shear strength behavior of the composite material. Furthermore, there appears to be an optimal blend ratio where the composite material had better properties than either the recycled asphalt or virgin soil alone with respect to shear strength.
ContributorsSchaper, Jeffery M (Author) / Kavazanjian, Edward (Thesis advisor) / Houston, Sandra L. (Committee member) / Zapata, Claudia E (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2011
Description
Traditional infrastructure design approaches were born with industrialization. During this time the relatively stable environments allowed infrastructure systems to reliably provide service with networks designed to precise parameters and organizations fixated on maximizing efficiency. Now, infrastructure systems face the challenge of operating in the Anthropocene, an era of complexity. The environments in which infrastructure systems operate are changing more rapidly than the technologies and governance systems of infrastructure. Infrastructure systems will need to be resilient to navigate stability and instability and avoid obsolescence. This dissertation addresses how infrastructure systems could be designed for the Anthropocene, assessing technologies able to operate with uncertainty, rethinking the principles of technology design, and restructuring infrastructure governance. Resilience, in engineering, has often been defined as resistance to known disturbances with a focus on infrastructure assets. Resilience, more broadly reviewed, includes resistance, adaptation, and transformation across physical and governance domains. This dissertation constructs a foundation for resilient infrastructure through an assessment of resilience paradigms in engineering, complexity and deep uncertainty (Chapter 2), ecology (Chapter 3), and organizational change and leadership (Chapter 4). The second chapter reconciles frameworks of complexity and deep uncertainty to help infrastructure managers navigate the instability infrastructure systems face, with a focus on climate change. The third chapter identifies competencies of resilience in infrastructure theory and practice and compares those competencies with ‘Life’s Principles’ in ecology, presenting opportunities for growth and innovation in infrastructure resilience and highlighting the need for satisficed (to satisfy and suffice) solutions. The fourth chapter navigates pressures of exploitation and exploration that infrastructure institutions face during periods of stability and instability, proposing leadership capabilities to enhance institutional resilience. Finally, the dissertation is concluded with a chapter synthesizing the previous chapters, providing guidance for alternative design approaches for advancing resilient infrastructure. Combined, the work challenges the basic mental models used by engineers when approaching infrastructure design and recommends new ways of doing and thinking for the accelerating and increasingly uncertain conditions of the future.
ContributorsHelmrich, Alysha Marie (Author) / Chester, Mikhail V (Thesis advisor) / Grimm, Nancy B (Committee member) / Garcia, Margaret (Committee member) / Meerow, Sara (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2021
Description
Infrastructure managers are continually challenged to reorient their organizations to mitigate disturbances. Disturbances to infrastructure constantly intensify, and the world and its intricate systems are becoming more connected and complex. This complexity often leads to disturbances and cascading failures. Some of these events unfold in extreme ways previously unimagined (i.e., Black Swan events). Infrastructure managers currently seek pathways through this complexity. To this end, reimagined – multifaceted – definitions of resilience must inform future decisions. Moreover, the hazardous environment of the Anthropocene demands flexibility and dynamic reprioritization of infrastructure and resources during disturbances. In this dissertation, the introduction will briefly explain foundational concepts, frameworks, and models that will inform the rest of this work. Chapter 2 investigates the concept of dynamic criticality: the skill to reprioritize amidst disturbances, repeating this process with each new disturbance. There is a dearth of insight requisite skillsets for infrastructure organizations to attain dynamic criticality. Therefore, this dissertation searches other industries and finds goals, structures, sensemaking, and strategic best practices to propose a contextualized framework for infrastructure. Chapters 3 and 4 seek insight into modeling infrastructure interdependencies and cascading failure to elucidate extreme outcomes such as Black Swans. Chapter 3 explores this concept through a theoretical analysis considering the use of realistic but fictional (i.e., synthetic) models to simulate interdependent behavior and cascading failures. This chapter also discusses potential uses of synthetic networks for infrastructure resilience research and barriers to future success. Chapter 4 tests the preceding theoretical analysis with an empirical study. Chapter 4 builds realistic networks with dependency between power and water models and simulates cascading failure. The discussion considers the future application of similar modeling efforts and how these techniques can help infrastructure managers scan the horizon for Black Swans. Finally, Chapter 5 concludes the dissertation with a synthesis of the findings from the previous chapters, discusses the boundaries and limitations, and proposes inspirations for future work.
ContributorsHoff, Ryan Michael (Author) / Chester, Mikhail V (Thesis advisor) / Allenby, Braden (Committee member) / Johnson, Nathan (Committee member) / McPhearson, Timon (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2023
Description
This dissertation advances the capability of water infrastructure utilities to anticipate and adapt to vulnerabilities in their systems from temperature increase and interdependencies with other infrastructure systems. Impact assessment models of increased heat and interdependencies were developed which incorporate probability, spatial, temporal, and operational information. Key findings from the models are that with increased heat the increased likelihood of water quality non-compliances is particularly concerning, the anticipated increases in different hardware components generate different levels of concern starting with iron pipes, then pumps, and then PVC pipes, the effects of temperature increase on hardware components and on service losses are non-linear due to spatial criticality of components, and that modeling spatial and operational complexity helps to identify potential pathways of failure propagation between infrastructure systems. Exploring different parameters of the models allowed for comparison of institutional strategies. Key findings are that either preventative maintenance or repair strategies can completely offset additional outages from increased temperatures though-- improved repair times reduce overall duration of outages more than preventative maintenance, and that coordinated strategies across utilities could be effective for mitigating vulnerability.
ContributorsBondank, Emily (Author) / Chester, Mikhail V (Thesis advisor) / Ruddell, Benjamin L (Committee member) / Johnson, Nathan G (Committee member) / Seager, Thomas P (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2019
Description
A mathematical approach was developed to evaluate the resilience of coupled power-water networks using a variant of contingency analysis adapted from electric transmission studies. In particular, the “what if” scenarios explored in power systems research were extended and applied for coupled power-water network research by evaluating how stressors and failures in the water network can propagate across system boundaries and into the electric network. Reduction in power system contingency reserves was the metric for determining violation of N-1 contingency reliability. Geospatial considerations were included using high-resolution, publicly available Geographic Information System data on infrastructure in the Phoenix Metropolitan Area that was used to generate a power network with 599 transmission lines and total generation capacity of 18.98 GW and a water network with 2,624 water network lines and capacity to serve up to 1.72M GPM of surface water. The steady-state model incorporated operating requirements for the power network—e.g., contingency reserves—and the water network—e.g., pressure ranges—while seeking to meet electric load and water demand. Interconnections developed between the infrastructures demonstrated how alternations to the system state and/or configuration of one network affect the other network, with results demonstrated through co-simulation of the power network and water network using OpenDSS and EPANET, respectively. Results indicate four key findings that help operators understand the interdependent behavior of the coupled power-water network: (i) two water failure scenarios (water flowing out of Waddell dam and CAP canal flowing west of Waddell dam) are critical to power-water network N-1 contingency reliability above 60% power system loading and at 100% water system demand, (ii) fast-starting natural gas generating units are necessary to maintain N-1 contingency reliability below 60% power system loading, (iii) Coolidge Station was the power plant to most frequently undergo a reduction in reserves amongst the water failure scenarios that cause a violation of N-1 reliability, (iv) power network vulnerability to water network failures was non-linear because it depends on the generating units that are dispatched, which can vary as line thermal limits or unit generation capacities are reached.
ContributorsGorman, Brandon (Author) / Johnson, Nathan G (Thesis advisor) / Seager, Thomas P (Committee member) / Chester, Mikhail V (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2020