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Description
Ten regional climate models (RCMs) and atmosphere-ocean generalized model parings from the North America Regional Climate Change Assessment Program were used to estimate the shift of extreme precipitation due to climate change using present-day and future-day climate scenarios. RCMs emulate winter storms and one-day duration events at the sub-regional level.

Ten regional climate models (RCMs) and atmosphere-ocean generalized model parings from the North America Regional Climate Change Assessment Program were used to estimate the shift of extreme precipitation due to climate change using present-day and future-day climate scenarios. RCMs emulate winter storms and one-day duration events at the sub-regional level. Annual maximum series were derived for each model pairing, each modeling period; and for annual and winter seasons. The reliability ensemble average (REA) method was used to qualify each RCM annual maximum series to reproduce historical records and approximate average predictions, because there are no future records. These series determined (a) shifts in extreme precipitation frequencies and magnitudes, and (b) shifts in parameters during modeling periods. The REA method demonstrated that the winter season had lower REA factors than the annual season. For the winter season the RCM pairing of the Hadley regional Model 3 and the Geophysical Fluid-Dynamics Laboratory atmospheric-land generalized model had the lowest REA factors. However, in replicating present-day climate, the pairing of the Abdus Salam International Center for Theoretical Physics' Regional Climate Model Version 3 with the Geophysical Fluid-Dynamics Laboratory atmospheric-land generalized model was superior. Shifts of extreme precipitation in the 24-hour event were measured using precipitation magnitude for each frequency in the annual maximum series, and the difference frequency curve in the generalized extreme-value-function parameters. The average trend of all RCM pairings implied no significant shift in the winter annual maximum series, however the REA-selected models showed an increase in annual-season precipitation extremes: 0.37 inches for the 100-year return period and for the winter season suggested approximately 0.57 inches for the same return period. Shifts of extreme precipitation were estimated using predictions 70 years into the future based on RCMs. Although these models do not provide climate information for the intervening 70 year period, the models provide an assertion on the behavior of future climate. The shift in extreme precipitation may be significant in the frequency distribution function, and will vary depending on each model-pairing condition. The proposed methodology addresses the many uncertainties associated with the current methodologies dealing with extreme precipitation.
ContributorsRiaño, Alejandro (Author) / Mays, Larry W. (Thesis advisor) / Vivoni, Enrique (Committee member) / Huang, Huei-Ping (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2013
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Description
This study was devised to elucidate key information concerning the potential risk posed by Legionella in reclaimed water. A series of biological experiments and a recharge basin soil column study were conducted to examine the survival, growth, and transport of L. pneumophila through engineered reclaimed water systems. A pilot-scale, column

This study was devised to elucidate key information concerning the potential risk posed by Legionella in reclaimed water. A series of biological experiments and a recharge basin soil column study were conducted to examine the survival, growth, and transport of L. pneumophila through engineered reclaimed water systems. A pilot-scale, column study was set up to measure Legionella transport in the columns under Arizona recharge basin conditions. Two columns, A and B, were packed to a depth of 122 cm with a loamy sand media collected from a recharge basin in Mesa, Arizona. The grain size distribution of Column A differed from that of Column B by the removal of fines passing the #200 sieve. The different soil profiles represented by column A and B allowed for further investigation of soil attributes which influence the microbial transport mechanism. Both clear PVC columns stand at a height of 1.83 m with an inner diameter of 6.35 cm. Sampling ports were drilled into the column at the soil depths 15, 30, 60, 92, 122 cm. Both columns were acclimated with tertiary treated waste water and set to a flow rate of approximately 1.5 m/d. The columns were used to assess the transport of a bacterial indicator, E. coli, in addition to assessing the study's primary pathogen of concern, Legionella. Approximately, 〖10〗^7 to 〖10〗^9 E. coli cells or 〖10〗^6 to 〖10〗^7Legionella cells were spiked into the columns' head waters for each experiment. Periodically, samples were collected from each column's sampling ports, until a minimum of three pore volume passed through the columns.

The pilot-scale, column study produced novel results which demonstrated the mechanism for Legionella to be transported through recharge basin soil. E. coli was transported, through 122 cm of the media in under 6 hours, whereas, Legionella was transported, through the same distance, in under 30 hours. Legionella has been shown to survive in low nutrient conditions for over a year. Given the novel results of this proof of concept study, a claim can be made for the transport of Legionella into groundwater aquifers through engineering recharge basin conditions, in Central Arizona.
ContributorsMcBurnett, Lauren Rae (Author) / Abbaszadegan, Morteza (Thesis advisor) / Alum, Absar (Committee member) / Fox, Peter (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2014
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Description
The Colorado River Basin (CRB) is the primary source of water in the

southwestern United States. A key step to reduce the uncertainty of future streamflow

projections in the CRB is to evaluate the performance of historical simulations of General

Circulation Models (GCMs). In this study, this challenge is addressed by evaluating the

ability

The Colorado River Basin (CRB) is the primary source of water in the

southwestern United States. A key step to reduce the uncertainty of future streamflow

projections in the CRB is to evaluate the performance of historical simulations of General

Circulation Models (GCMs). In this study, this challenge is addressed by evaluating the

ability of nineteen GCMs from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase Five

(CMIP5) and four nested Regional Climate Models (RCMs) in reproducing the statistical

properties of the hydrologic cycle and temperature in the CRB. To capture the transition

from snow-dominated to semiarid regions, analyses are conducted by spatially averaging

the climate variables in four nested sub-basins. Most models overestimate the mean

annual precipitation (P) and underestimate the mean annual temperature (T) at all

locations. While a group of models capture the mean annual runoff at all sub-basins with

different strengths of the hydrological cycle, another set of models overestimate the mean

annual runoff, due to a weak cycle in the evaporation channel. An abrupt increase in the

mean annual T in observed and most of the simulated time series (~0.8 °C) is detected at

all locations despite the lack of any statistically significant monotonic trends for both P

and T. While all models simulate the seasonality of T quite well, the phasing of the

seasonal cycle of P is fairly reproduced in just the upper, snow-dominated sub-basin.

Model performances degrade in the larger sub-basins that include semiarid areas, because

several GCMs are not able to capture the effect of the North American monsoon. Finally,

the relative performances of the climate models in reproducing the climatologies of P and

T are quantified to support future impact studies in the basin.
ContributorsGautam, Jenita (Author) / Mascaro, Giuseppe (Thesis advisor) / Vivoni, Enrique (Committee member) / Wang, Zhihua (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2018
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Description
Flooding is a critical issue around the world, and the absence of comprehension of watershed hydrologic reaction results in lack of lead-time for flood forecasting and expensive harm to property and life. It happens when water flows due to extreme rainfall storm, dam breach or snowmelt exceeds the capacity of

Flooding is a critical issue around the world, and the absence of comprehension of watershed hydrologic reaction results in lack of lead-time for flood forecasting and expensive harm to property and life. It happens when water flows due to extreme rainfall storm, dam breach or snowmelt exceeds the capacity of river system reservoirs and channels. The objective of this research was to develop a methodology for determining a time series operation for releases through control gates of river-reservoir systems during flooding events in a real-time using one- and/or two-dimensional modeling of flows through river-reservoir systems.

The optimization-simulation methodology interfaces several simulation-software coupled together with an optimization model solved by genetic algorithm coded in MATLAB. These software include the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers HEC-RAS linked the genetic algorithm in MATLAB to come up with an optimization-simulation model for time series gate openings to control downstream elevations. The model involves using the one- and two-dimensional ability in HEC-RAS to perform hydrodynamic routing with high-resolution raster Digital Elevation Models. Also, the model uses both real-time gridded- and gaged-rainfall data in addition to a model for forecasting future rainfall-data.

This new model has been developed to manage reservoir release schedules before, during, and after an extraordinary rainfall event that could cause extreme flooding. Further to observe and control downstream water surface elevations to avoid exceedance of threshold of flood levels in target cells in the downstream area of study, and to minimize the damage and direct effects in both the up and downstream.

The application of the complete optimization-simulation model was applied to a portion of the Cumberland River System in Nashville, Tennessee for the flooding event of May 2010. The objective of this application is to demonstrate the applicability of the model for minimizing flood damages for an actual flood event in real-time on an actual river basin. The purpose of the application in a real-time framework would be to minimize the flood damages at Nashville, Tennessee by keeping the flood stages under the 100-year flood stage. This application also compared the three unsteady flow simulation scenarios: one-dimensional, two-dimensional and combined one- and two-dimensional unsteady flow.
ContributorsAlbo-Salih, Hasan Hadi Kraidi (Author) / Mays, Larry W. (Thesis advisor) / Fox, Peter (Committee member) / Mascaro, Giuseppe (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2019
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Description
In the recent past, Iraq was considered relatively rich considering its water resources compared to its surroundings. Currently, the magnitude of water resource shortages in Iraq represents an important factor in the stability of the country and in protecting sustained economic development. The need for a practical, applicable, and sustainable

In the recent past, Iraq was considered relatively rich considering its water resources compared to its surroundings. Currently, the magnitude of water resource shortages in Iraq represents an important factor in the stability of the country and in protecting sustained economic development. The need for a practical, applicable, and sustainable river basin management for the Tigris and Euphrates Rivers in Iraq is essential. Applicable water resources allocation scenarios are important to minimize the potential future water crises in connection with water quality and quantity. The allocation of the available fresh water resources in addition to reclaimed water to different users in a sustainable manner is of the urgent necessities to maintain good water quantity and quality.

In this dissertation, predictive water allocation optimization models were developed which can be used to easily identify good alternatives for water management that can then be discussed, debated, adjusted, and simulated in greater detail. This study provides guidance for decision makers in Iraq for potential future conditions, where water supplies are reduced, and demonstrates how it is feasible to adopt an efficient water allocation strategy with flexibility in providing equitable water resource allocation considering alternative resource. Using reclaimed water will help in reducing the potential negative environmental impacts of treated or/and partially treated wastewater discharges while increasing the potential uses of reclaimed water for agriculture and other applications. Using reclaimed water for irrigation is logical and efficient to enhance the economy of farmers and the environment while providing a diversity of crops, especially since most of Iraq’s built or under construction wastewater treatment plants are located in or adjacent to agricultural lands. Adopting an optimization modelling approach can assist decision makers, ensuring their decisions will benefit the economy by incorporating global experiences to control water allocations in Iraq especially considering diminished water supplies.
ContributorsAhmed, Ahmed Abdulrazzaq (Author) / Mays, Larry W. (Thesis advisor) / Fox, Peter (Thesis advisor) / Mascaro, Giuseppe (Committee member) / Muenich, Rebecca (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2019
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Description
One of the two objectives of this dissertation is an investigation into the possible correlation between rainfall events and increased levels of E. coli and Mycobacterium using an existing data set. The literature states that levels of microbial concentrations do increase after rainfall events, but there are no studies to

One of the two objectives of this dissertation is an investigation into the possible correlation between rainfall events and increased levels of E. coli and Mycobacterium using an existing data set. The literature states that levels of microbial concentrations do increase after rainfall events, but there are no studies to indicate this correlation applies in any Arizona water systems. The data analyzed for the bacterial concentrations project suggested the possibility of a correlation along one river but it is not conclusive to state that any correlation exists between rainfall events and the microbial concentration for many other sites included in the analysis. This is most likely due to the highly engineered water delivery systems that are not directly impacted.

The secondary objective was to determine if there are environmental variables collected from an ongoing project which would be a good candidate for making predictions about any of the project data parameters. Of the 79 possible opportunities for the model to accurately predict the dependent variable, it showed strong statistical favorability as well as experimentally favorable results towards Dissolved Organic Carbon as the best dependent variable from the data set, resulting in an accuracy of 41%. This is relevant since Dissolved Organic Carbon is one of the most important water quality parameters of concern for drinking water treatment plants where disinfection by-products are a limiting factor. The need for further analysis and additional data collection is an obvious result from both studies. The use of hydrograph data instead of rainfall would be a logical new direction for the heavily engineered water delivery systems.
ContributorsBuell, Andrew (Author) / Fox, Peter (Thesis advisor) / Abbaszadegan, Morteza (Thesis advisor) / Alum, Absar (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2018
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Description
The need for rapid, specific and sensitive assays that provide a detection of bacterial indicators are important for monitoring water quality. Rapid detection using biosensor is a novel approach for microbiological testing applications. Besides, validation of rapid methods is an obstacle in adoption of such new bio-sensing technologies.

The need for rapid, specific and sensitive assays that provide a detection of bacterial indicators are important for monitoring water quality. Rapid detection using biosensor is a novel approach for microbiological testing applications. Besides, validation of rapid methods is an obstacle in adoption of such new bio-sensing technologies. In this study, the strategy developed is based on using the compound 4-methylumbelliferyl glucuronide (MUG), which is hydrolyzed rapidly by the action of E. coli β-D-glucuronidase (GUD) enzyme to yield a fluorogenic product that can be quantified and directly related to the number of E. coli cells present in water samples. The detection time required for the biosensor response ranged from 30 to 120 minutes, depending on the number of bacteria. The specificity of the MUG based biosensor platform assay for the detection of E. coli was examined by pure cultures of non-target bacterial genera and also non-target substrates. GUD activity was found to be specific for E. coli and no such enzymatic activity was detected in other species. Moreover, the sensitivity of rapid enzymatic assays was investigated and repeatedly determined to be less than 10 E. coli cells per reaction vial concentrated from 100 mL of water samples. The applicability of the method was tested by performing fluorescence assays under pure and mixed bacterial flora in environmental samples. In addition, the procedural QA/QC for routine monitoring of drinking water samples have been validated by comparing the performance of the biosensor platform for the detection of E. coli and culture-based standard techniques such as Membrane Filtration (MF). The results of this study indicated that the fluorescence signals generated in samples using specific substrate molecules can be utilized to develop a bio-sensing platform for the detection of E. coli in drinking water. The procedural QA/QC of the biosensor will provide both industry and regulatory authorities a useful tool for near real-time monitoring of E. coli in drinking water samples. Furthermore, this system can be applied independently or in conjunction with other methods as a part of an array of biochemical assays in order to reliably detect E. coli in water.
ContributorsHesari, Nikou (Author) / Abbaszadegan, Morteza (Thesis advisor) / Alum, Absar (Committee member) / Fox, Peter (Committee member) / Stout, Valerie (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2015
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Description
The increasingly recurrent extraordinary flood events in the metropolitan area of Monterrey, Mexico have led to significant stakeholder interest in understanding the hydrologic response of the Santa Catarina watershed to extreme events. This study analyzes a flood mitigation strategy proposed by stakeholders through a participatory workshop and are assessed using

The increasingly recurrent extraordinary flood events in the metropolitan area of Monterrey, Mexico have led to significant stakeholder interest in understanding the hydrologic response of the Santa Catarina watershed to extreme events. This study analyzes a flood mitigation strategy proposed by stakeholders through a participatory workshop and are assessed using two hydrological models: The Hydrological Modeling System (HEC-HMS) and the Triangulated Irregular Network (TIN)-based Real-time Integrated Basin Simulator (tRIBS).

The stakeholder-derived flood mitigation strategy consists of placing new hydraulic infrastructure in addition to the current flood controls in the basin. This is done by simulating three scenarios: (1) evaluate the impact of the current structure, (2) implementing a large dam similar to the Rompepicos dam and (3) the inclusion of three small detention dams. These mitigation strategies are assessed in the context of a major flood event caused by the landfall of Hurricane Alex in July 2010 through a consistent application of the two modeling tools. To do so, spatial information on topography, soil, land cover and meteorological forcing were assembled, quality-controlled and input into each model. Calibration was performed for each model based on streamflow observations and maximum observed reservoir levels from the National Water Commission in Mexico.

Simulation analyses focuses on the differential capability of the two models in capturing the spatial variability in rainfall, topographic conditions, soil hydraulic properties and its effect on the flood response in the presence of the different flood mitigation structures. The implementation of new hydraulic infrastructure is shown to have a positive impact on mitigating the flood peak with a more favorable reduction in the peak at the outlet from the larger dam (16.5% in tRIBS and 23% in HEC-HMS) than the collective effect from the small structures (12% in tRIBS and 10% in HEC-HMS). Furthermore, flood peak mitigation depends strongly on the number and locations of the new dam sites in relation to the spatial distribution of rainfall and flood generation. Comparison of the two modeling approaches complements the analysis of available observations for the flood event and provides a framework within which to derive a multi-model approach for stakeholder-driven solutions.
ContributorsCázares Rodríguez, Jorge E (Author) / Vivoni, Enrique (Thesis advisor) / Wang, Zhihua (Committee member) / Mays, Larry W. (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2016
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Description
Bioretention basins are a common stormwater best management practice (BMP) used to mitigate the hydrologic consequences of urbanization. Dry wells, also known as vadose-zone wells, have been used extensively in bioretention basins in Maricopa County, Arizona to decrease total drain time and recharge groundwater. A mixed integer nonlinear programming (MINLP)

Bioretention basins are a common stormwater best management practice (BMP) used to mitigate the hydrologic consequences of urbanization. Dry wells, also known as vadose-zone wells, have been used extensively in bioretention basins in Maricopa County, Arizona to decrease total drain time and recharge groundwater. A mixed integer nonlinear programming (MINLP) model has been developed for the minimum cost design of bioretention basins with dry wells.

The model developed simultaneously determines the peak stormwater inflow from watershed parameters and optimizes the size of the basin and the number and depth of dry wells based on infiltration, evapotranspiration (ET), and dry well characteristics and cost inputs. The modified rational method is used for the design storm hydrograph, and the Green-Ampt method is used for infiltration. ET rates are calculated using the Penman Monteith method or the Hargreaves-Samani method. The dry well flow rate is determined using an equation developed for reverse auger-hole flow.

The first phase of development of the model is to expand a nonlinear programming (NLP) for the optimal design of infiltration basins for use with bioretention basins. Next a single dry well is added to the NLP bioretention basin optimization model. Finally the number of dry wells in the basin is modeled as an integer variable creating a MINLP problem. The NLP models and MINLP model are solved using the General Algebraic Modeling System (GAMS). Two example applications demonstrate the efficiency and practicality of the model.
ContributorsLacy, Mason (Author) / Mays, Larry W. (Thesis advisor) / Fox, Peter (Committee member) / Wang, Zhihua (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2016
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Description
The fast pace of global urbanization makes cities the hotspots of population density and anthropogenic activities, leading to intensive emissions of heat and carbon dioxide (CO2), a primary greenhouse gas. Urban climate scientists have been actively seeking effective mitigation strategies over the past decades, aiming to improve the environmental quality

The fast pace of global urbanization makes cities the hotspots of population density and anthropogenic activities, leading to intensive emissions of heat and carbon dioxide (CO2), a primary greenhouse gas. Urban climate scientists have been actively seeking effective mitigation strategies over the past decades, aiming to improve the environmental quality for urban dwellers. Prior studies have identified the role of urban green spaces in the relief of urban heat stress. Yet little effort was devoted to quantify their contribution to local and regional CO2 budget. In fact, urban biogenic CO2 fluxes from photosynthesis and respiration are influenced by the microclimate in the built environment and are sensitive to anthropogenic disturbance. The high complexity of the urban ecosystem leads to an outstanding challenge for numerical urban models to disentangling and quantifying the interplay between heat and carbon dynamics.This dissertation aims to advance the simulation of thermal and carbon dynamics in urban land surface models, and to investigate the role of urban greening practices and urban system design in mitigating heat and CO2 emissions. The biogenic CO2 exchange in cities is parameterized by incorporating plant physiological functions into an advanced single-layer urban canopy model in the built environment. The simulation result replicates the microclimate and CO2 flux patterns measured from an eddy covariance system over a residential neighborhood in Phoenix, Arizona with satisfactory accuracy. Moreover, the model decomposes the total CO2 flux from observation and identifies the significant CO2 efflux from soil respiration. The model is then applied to quantify the impact of urban greening practices on heat and biogenic CO2 exchange over designed scenarios. The result shows the use of urban greenery is effective in mitigating both urban heat and carbon emissions, providing environmental co-benefit in cities. Furthermore, to seek the optimal urban system design in terms of thermal comfort and CO2 reduction, a multi-objective optimization algorithm is applied to the machine learning surrogates of the physical urban land surface model. There are manifest trade-offs among ameliorating diverse urban environmental indicators despite the co-benefit from urban greening. The findings of this dissertation, along with its implications on urban planning and landscaping management, would promote sustainable urban development strategies for achieving optimal environmental quality for policy makers, urban residents, and practitioners.
ContributorsLi, Peiyuan (Author) / Wang, Zhihua (Thesis advisor) / Vivoni, Enrique (Committee member) / Huang, Huei-Ping (Committee member) / Myint, Soe (Committee member) / Xu, Tianfang (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2021