Matching Items (8)
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- All Subjects: Epidemiology
- Creators: Halden, Rolf
- Creators: School of Human Evolution and Social Change
Description
Background: While research has quantified the mortality burden of the 1957 H2N2 influenza pandemic in the United States, little is known about how the virus spread locally in Arizona, an area where the dry climate was promoted as reducing respiratory illness transmission yet tuberculosis prevalence was high.
Methods: Using archival death certificates from 1954 to 1961, this study quantified the age-specific seasonal patterns, excess-mortality rates, and transmissibility patterns of the 1957 pandemic in Maricopa County, Arizona. By applying cyclical Serfling linear regression models to weekly mortality rates, the excess-mortality rates due to respiratory and all-causes were estimated for each age group during the pandemic period. The reproduction number was quantified from weekly data using a simple growth rate method and generation intervals of 3 and 4 days. Local newspaper articles from The Arizona Republic were analyzed from 1957-1958.
Results: Excess-mortality rates varied between waves, age groups, and causes of death, but overall remained low. From October 1959-June 1960, the most severe wave of the pandemic, the absolute excess-mortality rate based on respiratory deaths per 10,000 population was 17.85 in the elderly (≥65 years). All other age groups had extremely low excess-mortality and the typical U-shaped age-pattern was absent. However, relative risk was greatest (3.61) among children and young adolescents (5-14 years) from October 1957-March 1958, based on incidence rates of respiratory deaths. Transmissibility was greatest during the same 1957-1958 period, when the mean reproduction number was 1.08-1.11, assuming 3 or 4 day generation intervals and exponential or fixed distributions.
Conclusions: Maricopa County largely avoided pandemic influenza from 1957-1961. Understanding this historical pandemic and the absence of high excess-mortality rates and transmissibility in Maricopa County may help public health officials prepare for and mitigate future outbreaks of influenza.
Methods: Using archival death certificates from 1954 to 1961, this study quantified the age-specific seasonal patterns, excess-mortality rates, and transmissibility patterns of the 1957 pandemic in Maricopa County, Arizona. By applying cyclical Serfling linear regression models to weekly mortality rates, the excess-mortality rates due to respiratory and all-causes were estimated for each age group during the pandemic period. The reproduction number was quantified from weekly data using a simple growth rate method and generation intervals of 3 and 4 days. Local newspaper articles from The Arizona Republic were analyzed from 1957-1958.
Results: Excess-mortality rates varied between waves, age groups, and causes of death, but overall remained low. From October 1959-June 1960, the most severe wave of the pandemic, the absolute excess-mortality rate based on respiratory deaths per 10,000 population was 17.85 in the elderly (≥65 years). All other age groups had extremely low excess-mortality and the typical U-shaped age-pattern was absent. However, relative risk was greatest (3.61) among children and young adolescents (5-14 years) from October 1957-March 1958, based on incidence rates of respiratory deaths. Transmissibility was greatest during the same 1957-1958 period, when the mean reproduction number was 1.08-1.11, assuming 3 or 4 day generation intervals and exponential or fixed distributions.
Conclusions: Maricopa County largely avoided pandemic influenza from 1957-1961. Understanding this historical pandemic and the absence of high excess-mortality rates and transmissibility in Maricopa County may help public health officials prepare for and mitigate future outbreaks of influenza.
ContributorsCobos, April J (Author) / Jehn, Megan (Thesis director) / Chowell-Puente, Gerardo (Committee member) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor) / School of Human Evolution and Social Change (Contributor) / School of Life Sciences (Contributor)
Created2015-05
Description
Among wild rodent populations, vertical transmission is believed to constitute the primary route of infection for Lymphocytic Choriomeningitis Virus (LCMV), a non-lytic arenavirus with both acute and chronic forms. When carrier mice infected at birth with the acute Armstrong strain reproduce, they generate congenital carrier offspring containing a quasispecies of LCMV that includes Armstrong as well as its chronic Clone-13 variant. This study examined the genetic trends in the vertical transmission of LCMV from mothers infected perinatally with Clone-13. Viral isolates obtained from the serum of congenital carrier offspring were partially sequenced to reveal residue 260 in the glycoprotein-encoding region of their S segment, the site of a major amino acid change differentiating the chronic and acute strains. It was found that the phenylalanine-to-leucine mutation associated with Clone-13 was present in 100% of the isolates, strongly indicating that the offspring of Clone-13 carriers contain exclusively the chronic variant. This research has broad implications for the epidemiology of the virus, and, given the predominance of Armstrong in the wild, suggests that there must be a biological cost associated with Clone-13 infection in non-carriers.
ContributorsFrear, Cody Christian (Author) / Blattman, Joseph (Thesis director) / Hogue, Brenda (Committee member) / Holechek, Susan (Committee member) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor) / School of Human Evolution and Social Change (Contributor) / School of Life Sciences (Contributor)
Created2015-05
Description
Current methods measuring the consumption of prescription and illicit drugs are often hampered by innate limitations, the data is slow and often restricted, which can impact the relevance and robustness of the associated data. Here, wastewater-based epidemiology (WBE) was applied as an alternative metric to measure trends in the consumption of twelve narcotics within a collegiate setting from January 2018 to May 2018 at a Southwestern U.S. university. The present follow-up study was designed to identify potential changes in the consumption patterns of prescription and illicit drugs as the academic year progressed. Samples were collected from two sites that capture nearly 100% of campus-generated wastewater. Seven consecutive 24-hour composite raw wastewater samples were collected each month (n = 68) from both locations. The study identified the average consumption of select narcotics, in units of mg/day/1000 persons in the following order: cocaine (528 ± 266), heroin (404 ± 315), methylphenidate (343 ± 396), amphetamine (308 ±105), ecstasy (MDMA; 114 ± 198), oxycodone (57 ± 28), methadone (58 ± 73), and codeine (84 ± 40). The consumption of oxycodone, methadone, heroin, and cocaine were identified as statistically lower in the Spring 2018 semester compared to the Fall 2017. Universities may need to increase drug education for the fall semester to lower the consumption of drugs in that semester. Data from this research encompasses both human health and the built environment by evaluating public health through collection of municipal wastewater, allowing public health officials rapid and robust narcotic consumption data while maintaining the anonymity of the students, faculty, and staff.
ContributorsCarlson, Alyssa Rose (Author) / Halden, Rolf (Thesis director) / Gushgari, Adam (Committee member) / School of Human Evolution & Social Change (Contributor) / Chemical Engineering Program (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2020-05
Description
The combined use of methamphetamine and opioids has been reported to be on the rise throughout the United States (U.S.). However, our knowledge of this phenomenon is largely based upon reported overdoses and overdose-related deaths, law enforcement seizures, and drug treatment records; data that are often slow, restricted, and only track a portion of the population participating in drug consumption activities. As an alternative, wastewater-based epidemiology (WBE) has the capability to track licit and illicit drug trends within an entire community, at a low cost and in near real-time, while providing anonymity to those contributing to the sewer shed. In this study, wastewater was collected from two Midwestern U.S. cities (2017-2019) and analyzed for the prevalence of methamphetamine and the opioids oxycodone, codeine, fentanyl, tramadol, hydrocodone, and hydromorphone. Monthly 24-hour time-weighted composite samples (n = 48) from each city were analyzed using isotope dilution liquid chromatography tandem mass spectrometry. Results showed that methamphetamine and total opioid consumption (milligram morphine equivalents) in City 1 were strongly correlated only in 2017 (Spearman rank order correlation coefficient, ρ = 0.78), the relationship driven by fentanyl, hydrocodone, and hydromorphone. For City 2, methamphetamine and total opioid consumption were strongly positively correlated during the entire study (ρ = 0.54), with the correlations driven by hydrocodone and hydromorphone. In both cities, hydrocodone and hydromorphone mass loads were highly correlated, suggesting a parent and metabolite relationship. WBE provides important insights into licit and illicit drug consumption patterns in near real-time as they evolve; important information for community stakeholders in municipalities across the U.S.
ContributorsClick, Kathleen Grace (Author) / Halden, Rolf (Thesis director) / Gushgari, Adam (Committee member) / Driver, Erin (Committee member) / School of Life Sciences (Contributor) / School of Human Evolution & Social Change (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2020-05
Description
Alzheimer’s disease (AD) is a neurodegenerative disease resulting in loss of cognitive function and is not considered part of the typical aging process. Recently, research is being conducted to study environmental effects on AD because the exact molecular mechanisms behind AD are not known. The associations between various toxins and AD have been mixed and unclear. In order to better understand the role of the environment and toxic substances on AD, we conducted a literature review and geospatial analysis of environmental, specifically wastewater, contaminants that have biological plausibility for increasing risk of development or exacerbation of AD. This literature review assisted us in selecting 10 wastewater toxic substances that displayed a mixed or one-sided relationship with the symptoms or prevalence of Alzheimer’s for our data analysis. We utilized data of toxic substances in wastewater treatment plants and compared them to the crude rate of AD in the different Census regions of the United States to test for possible linear relationships. Using data from the Targeted National Sewage Sludge Survey (TNSSS) and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), we developed an application using R Shiny to allow users to interactively visualize both datasets as choropleths of the United States and understand the importance of this area of research. Pearson’s correlation coefficient was calculated resulting in arsenic and cadmium displaying positive linear correlations with AD. Other analytes from this statistical analysis demonstrated mixed correlations with AD. This application and data analysis serve as a model in the methodology for further geospatial analysis on AD. Further data analysis and visualization at a lower level in terms of scope is necessary for more accurate and reliable evidence of a causal relationship between the wastewater substance analytes and AD.
GitHub Repository: https://github.com/komal-agrawal/AD_GIS.git
GitHub Repository: https://github.com/komal-agrawal/AD_GIS.git
ContributorsAgrawal, Komal (Author) / Scotch, Matthew (Thesis director) / Halden, Rolf (Committee member) / College of Health Solutions (Contributor, Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2019-05
Description
This dissertation critically evaluated methodologies and devices for assessing and protecting the health of human populations, with particular emphasis on groundwater remediation and the use of wastewater-based epidemiology (WBE) to inform population health. A meta-analysis and assessment of laboratory-scale treatability studies for removing chlorinated solvents from groundwater found that sediment microcosms operated as continuous-flow columns are preferable to batch bottles when seeking to emulate with high fidelity the complex conditions prevailing in the subsurface in contaminated aquifers (Chapter 2). Compared to monitoring at the field-scale, use of column microcosms also showed (i) improved chemical speciation, and (ii) qualitative predictability of field parameters (Chapter 3). Monitoring of glucocorticoid hormones in wastewater of a university campus showed (i) elevated stress levels particularly at the start of the semester, (ii) on weekdays relative to weekend days (p = 0.05) (161 ± 42 μg d-1 per person, 122 ± 54 μg d-1 per person; p ≤ 0.05), and (iii) a positive association between levels of stress hormones and nicotine (rs: 0.49) and caffeine (0.63) consumption in this student population (Chapter 4). Also, (i) alcohol consumption determined by WBE was in line with literature estimates for this young sub-population (11.3 ± 7.5 g d-1 per person vs. 10.1 ± 0.8 g d-1 per person), whereas caffeine and nicotine uses were below (114 ± 49 g d-1 per person, 178 ± 19 g d-1 per person; 627 ± 219 g d-1 per person, 927 ± 243 g d-1 per person). The introduction of a novel continuous in situ sampler to WBE brought noted benefits relative to traditional time-integrated sampling, including (i) a higher sample coverage (93% vs. 3%), (ii) an ability to captured short-term analyte pulses (e.g., heroin, fentanyl, norbuprenorphine, and methadone), and (iii) an overall higher mass capture for drugs of abuse like morphine, fentanyl, methamphetamine, amphetamine, and the opioid antagonist metabolite norbuprenorphine (p ≤ 0.01). Methods and devices developed in this work are poised to find applications in the remediation sector and in human health assessments.
ContributorsDriver, Erin Michelle (Author) / Halden, Rolf (Thesis advisor) / Conroy-Ben, Otakuye (Committee member) / Kavazanjian, Edward (Committee member) / Krajmalnik-Brown, Rosa (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2018
Description
Uncertainty is inherent in predictive decision-making, both with respect to forecasting plausible future conditions based on a historic record, and with respect to backcasting likely upstream states from downstream observations. In the first chapter, I evaluated the status of current water resources management policy in the United States (U.S.) with respect to its integration of projective uncertainty into state-level flooding, drought, supply and demand, and climate guidance. I found uncertainty largely absent and discussed only qualitatively rather than quantitatively. In the second chapter, I turned to uncertainty in the interpretation of downstream observations as indicators of upstream behaviors in the field of Wastewater-Based Epidemiology (WBE), which has made possible the near real-time, yet anonymous, monitoring of public health via measurements of biomarkers excreted to wastewater. I found globally, seasonality of air and soil temperature causes biomarker degradation to vary up to 13-fold over the course of a year, constituting part of the background processes WBE must address, or detrend, prior to decision-making. To determine whether the seasonal change in degradation rates was introducing previously unaccounted for uncertainty with respect to differences in observed summertime and winter-time populations, I evaluated demographic indicators recorded by the Census Bureau for correlation with their distance from all major wastewater treatment plants across the U.S. The analysis identified statistically significant correlation for household income, education attainment, unemployment, military service, and the absence of health insurance. Finally, the model was applied to a city-wide case study to test whether temperature could explain some of the trends observed in monthly observations of two opiate compounds. Modeling suggests some of the monthly changes were attributed to natural temperature fluctuation rather than to trends in the substances’ consumption, and that uncertainty regarding discharge location can dominate even relative observed differences in opiate detections. In summary, my work has found temperature an important modulator of WBE results, influencing both the type of populations observed and the likelihood of upstream behaviors disproportionally magnified or obscured, particularly for the more labile biomarkers. There exists significant potential for improving the understanding of empirical observations via numerical modeling and the application of spatial analysis tools.
ContributorsHart, Olga (Author) / Halden, Rolf (Thesis advisor) / Mascaro, Giuseppe (Committee member) / Renaut, Rosemary (Committee member) / Nelson, Keith (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2019
Description
The purpose of this study is to discover the exposure and network patterns during the 2013-2015 Ebola Virus Disease epidemic. The author accomplished this by taking an opportunistic sample of news and academic articles, some of which may also capture cases untreated and therefore unrecorded by hospitals and treatment units. Most of the 315 cases came from the Washington Post, New York Times, and World Health Organization, and they consistently captured between 1-2% of WHO case numbers. The results show that of cases with known exposures, 53.6% became infected through contact with sick family members. Hospital and funeral transmission accounted for the second and third most frequent exposure scenarios at 24.6% and 12.9% respectively. The exposures over time imply that hospital and funeral transmission prevention efforts have been successful, but family transmission has remained common throughout the outbreak. Prevention initiatives should focus on families earlier in epidemics to help control EVD's spread.
ContributorsCleaton, Julie Marie (Author) / Chowell, Gerardo (Thesis director) / Hurtado, Ana Magdalena (Committee member) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor) / School of Human Evolution and Social Change (Contributor) / School of Life Sciences (Contributor)
Created2015-05