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- All Subjects: Epidemiology
- Creators: Halden, Rolf
- Creators: School of Human Evolution and Social Change
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Methods: Using archival death certificates from 1954 to 1961, this study quantified the age-specific seasonal patterns, excess-mortality rates, and transmissibility patterns of the 1957 pandemic in Maricopa County, Arizona. By applying cyclical Serfling linear regression models to weekly mortality rates, the excess-mortality rates due to respiratory and all-causes were estimated for each age group during the pandemic period. The reproduction number was quantified from weekly data using a simple growth rate method and generation intervals of 3 and 4 days. Local newspaper articles from The Arizona Republic were analyzed from 1957-1958.
Results: Excess-mortality rates varied between waves, age groups, and causes of death, but overall remained low. From October 1959-June 1960, the most severe wave of the pandemic, the absolute excess-mortality rate based on respiratory deaths per 10,000 population was 17.85 in the elderly (≥65 years). All other age groups had extremely low excess-mortality and the typical U-shaped age-pattern was absent. However, relative risk was greatest (3.61) among children and young adolescents (5-14 years) from October 1957-March 1958, based on incidence rates of respiratory deaths. Transmissibility was greatest during the same 1957-1958 period, when the mean reproduction number was 1.08-1.11, assuming 3 or 4 day generation intervals and exponential or fixed distributions.
Conclusions: Maricopa County largely avoided pandemic influenza from 1957-1961. Understanding this historical pandemic and the absence of high excess-mortality rates and transmissibility in Maricopa County may help public health officials prepare for and mitigate future outbreaks of influenza.
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The combined use of methamphetamine and opioids has been reported to be on the rise throughout the United States (U.S.). However, our knowledge of this phenomenon is largely based upon reported overdoses and overdose-related deaths, law enforcement seizures, and drug treatment records; data that are often slow, restricted, and only track a portion of the population participating in drug consumption activities. As an alternative, wastewater-based epidemiology (WBE) has the capability to track licit and illicit drug trends within an entire community, at a low cost and in near real-time, while providing anonymity to those contributing to the sewer shed. In this study, wastewater was collected from two Midwestern U.S. cities (2017-2019) and analyzed for the prevalence of methamphetamine and the opioids oxycodone, codeine, fentanyl, tramadol, hydrocodone, and hydromorphone. Monthly 24-hour time-weighted composite samples (n = 48) from each city were analyzed using isotope dilution liquid chromatography tandem mass spectrometry. Results showed that methamphetamine and total opioid consumption (milligram morphine equivalents) in City 1 were strongly correlated only in 2017 (Spearman rank order correlation coefficient, ρ = 0.78), the relationship driven by fentanyl, hydrocodone, and hydromorphone. For City 2, methamphetamine and total opioid consumption were strongly positively correlated during the entire study (ρ = 0.54), with the correlations driven by hydrocodone and hydromorphone. In both cities, hydrocodone and hydromorphone mass loads were highly correlated, suggesting a parent and metabolite relationship. WBE provides important insights into licit and illicit drug consumption patterns in near real-time as they evolve; important information for community stakeholders in municipalities across the U.S.
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GitHub Repository: https://github.com/komal-agrawal/AD_GIS.git
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