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- All Subjects: Epidemiology
- Creators: Perrings, Charles
- Creators: Collins, James P.
Description
Infectious diseases have emerged as a significant threat to wildlife. Environmental change is often implicated as an underlying factor driving this emergence. With this recent rise in disease emergence and the acceleration of environmental change, it is important to identify the environmental factors that alter host-pathogen dynamics and their underlying mechanisms. The emerging pathogen Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd) is a clear example of the negative effects infectious diseases can have on wildlife. Bd is linked to global declines in amphibian diversity and abundance. However, there is considerable variation in population-level responses to Bd, with some hosts experiencing marked declines while others persist. Environmental factors may play a role in this variation. This research used populations of pond-breeding chorus frogs (Pseudacris maculata) in Arizona to test if three rapidly changing environmental factors nitrogen (N), phosphorus (P), and temperature influence the presence, prevalence, and severity of Bd infections. I evaluated the reliability of a new technique for detecting Bd in water samples and combined this technique with animal sampling to monitor Bd in wild chorus frogs. Monitoring from 20 frog populations found high Bd presence and prevalence during breeding. A laboratory experiment found 85% adult mortality as a result of Bd infection; however, estimated chorus frog densities in wild populations increased significantly over two years of sampling despite high Bd prevalence. Presence, prevalence, and severity of Bd infections were not correlated with aqueous concentrations of N or P. There was, however, support for an annual temperature-induced reduction in Bd prevalence in newly metamorphosed larvae. A simple mathematical model suggests that this annual temperature-induced reduction of Bd infections in larvae in combination with rapid host maturation may help chorus frog populations persist despite high adult mortality. These results demonstrate that Bd can persist across a wide range of environmental conditions, providing little support for the influence of N and P on Bd dynamics, and show that water temperature may play an important role in altering Bd dynamics, enabling chorus frogs to persist with this pathogen. These findings demonstrate the importance of environmental context and host life history for the outcome of host-pathogen interactions.
ContributorsHyman, Oliver J. (Author) / Collins, James P. (Thesis advisor) / Davidson, Elizabeth W. (Committee member) / Anderies, John M. (Committee member) / Elser, James J. (Committee member) / Escalante, Ananias (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2012
Description
Avian influenzas are zoonoses, or pathogens borne by wildlife and livestock that
can also infect people. In recent decades, and especially since the emergence of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1 in 1996, these diseases have become a significant threat to animal and public health across the world. HPAI H5N1 has caused severe damage to poultry populations, killing, or prompting the culling of, millions of birds in Asia, Africa, and Europe. It has also infected hundreds of people, with a mortality rate of approximately 50%. This dissertation focuses on the ecological and socioeconomic drivers of avian influenza risk, particularly in China, the most populous country to be infected. Among the most significant ecological risk factors are landscapes that serve as “mixing zones” for wild waterfowl and poultry, such as rice paddy, and nearby lakes and wetlands that are important breeding and wintering habitats for wild birds. Poultry outbreaks often involve cross infections between wild and domesticated birds. At the international level, trade in live poultry can spread the disease, especially if the imports are from countries not party to trade agreements with well-developed biosecurity standards. However, these risks can be mitigated in a number of ways. Protected habitats, such as Ramsar wetlands, can segregate wild bird and poultry populations, thereby lowering the chance of interspecies transmission. The industrialization of poultry production, while not without ethical and public health problems, can also be risk-reducing by causing wild-domestic segregation and allowing for the more efficient application of surveillance, vaccination, and other biosecurity measures. Disease surveillance is effective at preventing the spread of avian influenza, including across international borders. Economic modernization in general, as reflected in rising per-capita GDP, appears to mitigate avian influenza risks at both the national and sub-national levels. Poultry vaccination has been effective in many cases, but is an incomplete solution because of the practical difficulties of sustained and widespread implementation. The other popular approach to avian influenza control is culling, which can be highly expensive and raise ethical concerns about large-scale animal slaughter. Therefore, it is more economically efficient, and may even be more ethical, to target the socio-ecological drivers of avian influenza risks, including by implementing the policies discussed here.
can also infect people. In recent decades, and especially since the emergence of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1 in 1996, these diseases have become a significant threat to animal and public health across the world. HPAI H5N1 has caused severe damage to poultry populations, killing, or prompting the culling of, millions of birds in Asia, Africa, and Europe. It has also infected hundreds of people, with a mortality rate of approximately 50%. This dissertation focuses on the ecological and socioeconomic drivers of avian influenza risk, particularly in China, the most populous country to be infected. Among the most significant ecological risk factors are landscapes that serve as “mixing zones” for wild waterfowl and poultry, such as rice paddy, and nearby lakes and wetlands that are important breeding and wintering habitats for wild birds. Poultry outbreaks often involve cross infections between wild and domesticated birds. At the international level, trade in live poultry can spread the disease, especially if the imports are from countries not party to trade agreements with well-developed biosecurity standards. However, these risks can be mitigated in a number of ways. Protected habitats, such as Ramsar wetlands, can segregate wild bird and poultry populations, thereby lowering the chance of interspecies transmission. The industrialization of poultry production, while not without ethical and public health problems, can also be risk-reducing by causing wild-domestic segregation and allowing for the more efficient application of surveillance, vaccination, and other biosecurity measures. Disease surveillance is effective at preventing the spread of avian influenza, including across international borders. Economic modernization in general, as reflected in rising per-capita GDP, appears to mitigate avian influenza risks at both the national and sub-national levels. Poultry vaccination has been effective in many cases, but is an incomplete solution because of the practical difficulties of sustained and widespread implementation. The other popular approach to avian influenza control is culling, which can be highly expensive and raise ethical concerns about large-scale animal slaughter. Therefore, it is more economically efficient, and may even be more ethical, to target the socio-ecological drivers of avian influenza risks, including by implementing the policies discussed here.
ContributorsWu, Tong (Author) / Perrings, Charles (Thesis advisor) / Collins, Jim (Committee member) / Daszak, Peter (Committee member) / Minteer, Ben (Committee member) / Kinzig, Ann (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2018
Description
Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd), the amphibian chytrid fungus causing chytridiomycosis, is the cause of massive amphibian die-offs. As with any host-pathogen relationship, it is paramount to understand the growth and reproduction of the pathogen that causes an infectious disease outbreak. The life-cycle of the pathogen, Bd, is strongly influenced by temperature; however, previous research has focused on Bd isolated from limited geographic ranges, and may not be representative of Bd on a global scale. My research examines the relationship between Bd and temperature on the global level to determine the actual thermal maximum of Bd. Six isolates of Bd, from three continents, were incubated at a temperature within the thermal range (21°C) and a temperature higher than the optimal thermal range (27°C). Temperature affected the growth and zoosporangium size of all six isolates of Bd. All six isolates had proliferative growth at 21°C, but at 27°C the amount and quality of growth varied per isolate. My results demonstrate that each Bd isolate has a different response to temperature, and the thermal maximum for growth varies with each isolate. Further understanding of the difference in isolate response to temperature can lead to a better understanding of Bd pathogen dynamics, as well as allow us the ability to identify susceptible hosts and environments before an outbreak.
ContributorsWoodland, Laura Elizabeth (Author) / Collins, James (Thesis director) / Davidson, Elizabeth (Committee member) / Roberson, Robert (Committee member) / School of Politics and Global Studies (Contributor) / School of Molecular Sciences (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2016-12
Description
The spread of dengue worldwide currently places half of the world’s population at risk. In the absence of a dengue vaccine, control of the disease requires control of the mosquito species that transmit the virus. The most important of these is. Advances in research detailing the responsiveness of Aedes aegypti to small changes in climate enable the production of more sophisticated remote sensing and surveillance techniques for monitoring these populations. Close monitoring of global dengue activity and outbreaks likewise enables a greater specificity when determining to which human populations the virus is most likely to spread. There have been no locally acquired cases in Arizona to date, but the high abundance of Aedes aegypti in the Phoenix Metropolitan area raises concern within the Arizona Department of Health Services over the potential transmission of dengue in the city. This study develops a model that combines mosquito abundance, micro-climatic and demographic information to delineate regions in Phoenix that are most support transmission of dengue. The first chapter focuses on the impact that daytime high and low temperatures have on Aedes aegypti’s ability to become infectious with dengue. It argues that NDVI (normal difference vegetative index) imaging of the Phoenix area can be used to plot areas where mosquitoes are most likely to become competent vectors. The second chapter focuses on the areas in the city where mosquitoes are most likely to be exposed to the virus. Based on proximity to Phoenix and the high volume of traffic across the Arizona-Mexico border, I treat the Mexican state of Sonora as the source of infection. I combine these two analyses, micro-climatic and demographic, to produce maps of Phoenix that show the locations with the highest likelihood of transmission overall.
ContributorsHughes, Tyler (Author) / Perrings, Charles (Thesis advisor) / Kinzig, Ann (Committee member) / Hall, Sharon J (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2016
Description
The amphibian chytrid fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd) has captured human attention because it is a pathogen that has contributed to global amphibian declines. Despite increased research, much is still unknown about how it develops. For example, the fact that Bd exhibits phenotypic plasticity during development was only recently identified. In this thesis, the causes of phenotypic plasticity in Bd are tested by exposing the fungus to different substrates, including powdered frog skin and keratin, which seems to play an important role in the fungus's colonization of amphibian epidermis. A novel swelling structure emerging from Bd germlings developed when exposed to keratin and frog skin. This swelling has not been observed in Bd grown in laboratory cultures before, and it is possible that it is analogous to the germ tube Bd develops in vivo. Growth of the swelling suggests that keratin plays a role in the phenotypic plasticity expressed by Bd.
ContributorsBabb-Biernacki, Spenser Jordan (Author) / Collins, James P. (Thesis director) / Roberson, Robert (Committee member) / Brus, Evan (Committee member) / School of Film, Dance and Theatre (Contributor) / School of Life Sciences (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2016-05
Description
This work examines one dimension of the effect that complex human transport systems have on the spread of Chikungunya Virus (CHIKV) in the Caribbean from 2013 to 2015. CHIKV is transmitted by mosquitos and its novel spread through the Caribbean islands provided a chance to examine disease transmission through complex human transportation systems. Previous work by Cauchemez et al. had shown a simple distance-based model successfully predict CHIKV spread in the Caribbean using Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) statistical methods. A MCMC simulation is used to evaluate different transportation methods (air travel, cruise ships, and local maritime traffic) for the primary transmission patterns through linear regression. Other metrics including population density to account for island size variation and dengue fever incidence rates as a proxy for vector control and health spending were included. Air travel and cruise travel were gathered from monthly passenger arrivals by island. Local maritime traffic is approximated with a gravity model proxy incorporating GDP-per-capita and distance and historic dengue rates were used for determine existing vector control measures for the islands. The Caribbean represents the largest cruise passenger market in the world, cruise ship arrivals were expected to show the strongest signal; however, the gravity model representing local traffic was the best predictor of infection routes. The early infected islands (<30 days) showed a heavy trend towards an alternate primary transmission but our consensus model able to predict the time until initial infection reporting with 94.5% accuracy for islands 30 days post initial reporting. This result can assist public health entities in enacting measures to mitigate future epidemics and provide a modelling basis for determining transmission modes in future CHIKV outbreaks.
ContributorsFries, Brendan F (Author) / Perrings, Charles (Thesis director) / Wilson Sayres, Melissa (Committee member) / Morin, Ben (Committee member) / School of Life Sciences (Contributor) / Department of Military Science (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2015-12
Description
Emerging infectious diseases (EIDs) in vulnerable populations are a proposed cause of reduced global biodiversity due to local and regional extinctions. Chytridiomycosis, a fungal disease caused by Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd), is affecting amphibian populations worldwide.
Chapter 1 of this thesis reports using lab-raised larval tiger salamanders (Ambystoma tigrinum nebulosum), collected as eggs, to test if Bd infects them. Bd infects metamorphosed tiger salamanders; however, it is currently unknown if larvae can be infected by Bd. Adult frogs tend to host Bd on ventral surfaces and hind legs while tadpoles host Bd in keratinized mouthparts. No research has considered differences in infection between life stages of salamanders. It was hypothesized that Bd can colonize larvae in the same manner as metamorphosed animals. Larval salamanders were inoculated to test if Bd concentrations differ among body regions in larvae compared to metamorphosed salamanders. Larvae can carry Bd with the concentration of Bd varying between body region.
Chapter 2 report using native tiger salamanders (Ambystoma tigrinum nebulosum), from northern Arizona and Bd as a study system to test if Bd is native or introduced to Arizona. It was hypothesized that Bd is not endemic to Arizona, but is introduced. There are multiple hypotheses regarding potential routes Bd may have traveled through Arizona and into Mexico. These hypotheses were tested using the Kaibab Plateau in Coconino County, Arizona, as a study site. The plateau is isolated from surrounding areas by the Grand Canyon to the south and the Vermillion Cliffs to the north serving as major biogeographical barriers. It is hypothesized that tiger salamanders are not dispersing into or out of the Kaibab Plateau due to geological restrictions. Bd, therefore, should not be present on salamanders on the Kaibab Plateau due to geological restriction. Tiger salamanders in stock tanks located on the Kaibab as well as preserved museum specimens housed in the Arizona State University Natural History Collection were sampled. The results indicate that Bd occurs at low levels on Kaibab Plateau tiger salamanders.
Chapter 1 of this thesis reports using lab-raised larval tiger salamanders (Ambystoma tigrinum nebulosum), collected as eggs, to test if Bd infects them. Bd infects metamorphosed tiger salamanders; however, it is currently unknown if larvae can be infected by Bd. Adult frogs tend to host Bd on ventral surfaces and hind legs while tadpoles host Bd in keratinized mouthparts. No research has considered differences in infection between life stages of salamanders. It was hypothesized that Bd can colonize larvae in the same manner as metamorphosed animals. Larval salamanders were inoculated to test if Bd concentrations differ among body regions in larvae compared to metamorphosed salamanders. Larvae can carry Bd with the concentration of Bd varying between body region.
Chapter 2 report using native tiger salamanders (Ambystoma tigrinum nebulosum), from northern Arizona and Bd as a study system to test if Bd is native or introduced to Arizona. It was hypothesized that Bd is not endemic to Arizona, but is introduced. There are multiple hypotheses regarding potential routes Bd may have traveled through Arizona and into Mexico. These hypotheses were tested using the Kaibab Plateau in Coconino County, Arizona, as a study site. The plateau is isolated from surrounding areas by the Grand Canyon to the south and the Vermillion Cliffs to the north serving as major biogeographical barriers. It is hypothesized that tiger salamanders are not dispersing into or out of the Kaibab Plateau due to geological restrictions. Bd, therefore, should not be present on salamanders on the Kaibab Plateau due to geological restriction. Tiger salamanders in stock tanks located on the Kaibab as well as preserved museum specimens housed in the Arizona State University Natural History Collection were sampled. The results indicate that Bd occurs at low levels on Kaibab Plateau tiger salamanders.
ContributorsOtsuru, Shinji Author (Author) / Collins, James P. (Thesis advisor) / Davidson, Elizabeth (Committee member) / Pratt, Stephen (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2019
Description
Land-use change has arguably been the largest contributor to the emergence of novel zoonotic diseases within the past century. However, the relationship between patterns of land-use change and the resulting landscape configuration on disease spread is poorly understood as current cross-species disease transmission models have not adequately incorporated spatial features of habitats. Furthermore, mathematical-epidemiological studies have not considered the role that land-use change plays in disease transmission throughout an ecosystem.
This dissertation models how a landscape's configuration, examining the amount and shape of habitat overlap, contributes to cross-species disease transmission to determine the role that land-use change has on the spread of infectious diseases. To approach this, an epidemiological model of transmission between a domesticated and a wild species is constructed. Each species is homogeneously mixed in its respective habitat and heterogeneously mixed in the habitat overlap, where cross-species transmission occurs. Habitat overlap is modeled using landscape ecology metrics.
This general framework is then applied to brucellosis transmission between elk and cattle in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem. The application of the general framework allows for the exploration of how land-use change has contributed to brucellosis prevalence in these two species, and how land management can be utilized to control disease transmission. This model is then extended to include a third species, bison, in order to provide insight to the indirect consequences of disease transmission for a species that is situated on land that has not been converted. The results of this study can ultimately help stakeholders develop policy for controlling brucellosis transmission between livestock, elk, and bison, and in turn, could lead to less disease prevalence, reduce associated costs, and assist in population management.
This research contributes novelty by combining landscape ecology metrics with theoretical epidemiological models to understand how the shape, size, and distribution of habitat fragments on a landscape affect cross-species disease transmission. The general framework demonstrates how habitat edge in single patch impacts cross-species disease transmission. The application to brucellosis transmission in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem between elk, cattle, and bison is original research that enhances understanding of how land conversion is associated with enzootic disease spread.
This dissertation models how a landscape's configuration, examining the amount and shape of habitat overlap, contributes to cross-species disease transmission to determine the role that land-use change has on the spread of infectious diseases. To approach this, an epidemiological model of transmission between a domesticated and a wild species is constructed. Each species is homogeneously mixed in its respective habitat and heterogeneously mixed in the habitat overlap, where cross-species transmission occurs. Habitat overlap is modeled using landscape ecology metrics.
This general framework is then applied to brucellosis transmission between elk and cattle in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem. The application of the general framework allows for the exploration of how land-use change has contributed to brucellosis prevalence in these two species, and how land management can be utilized to control disease transmission. This model is then extended to include a third species, bison, in order to provide insight to the indirect consequences of disease transmission for a species that is situated on land that has not been converted. The results of this study can ultimately help stakeholders develop policy for controlling brucellosis transmission between livestock, elk, and bison, and in turn, could lead to less disease prevalence, reduce associated costs, and assist in population management.
This research contributes novelty by combining landscape ecology metrics with theoretical epidemiological models to understand how the shape, size, and distribution of habitat fragments on a landscape affect cross-species disease transmission. The general framework demonstrates how habitat edge in single patch impacts cross-species disease transmission. The application to brucellosis transmission in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem between elk, cattle, and bison is original research that enhances understanding of how land conversion is associated with enzootic disease spread.
ContributorsPadilla, Dustin (Author) / Perrings, Charles (Thesis advisor) / Brauer, Fred (Committee member) / Jayasuriya, Suren (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2020