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- All Subjects: Epidemiology
- All Subjects: Infectious Diseases
- All Subjects: Nucleoprotein
- Creators: Jehn, Megan
- Creators: Legutki, Bart
- Creators: Bartko, Ezri
- Member of: Barrett, The Honors College Thesis/Creative Project Collection
Methods: Using archival death certificates from 1954 to 1961, this study quantified the age-specific seasonal patterns, excess-mortality rates, and transmissibility patterns of the 1957 pandemic in Maricopa County, Arizona. By applying cyclical Serfling linear regression models to weekly mortality rates, the excess-mortality rates due to respiratory and all-causes were estimated for each age group during the pandemic period. The reproduction number was quantified from weekly data using a simple growth rate method and generation intervals of 3 and 4 days. Local newspaper articles from The Arizona Republic were analyzed from 1957-1958.
Results: Excess-mortality rates varied between waves, age groups, and causes of death, but overall remained low. From October 1959-June 1960, the most severe wave of the pandemic, the absolute excess-mortality rate based on respiratory deaths per 10,000 population was 17.85 in the elderly (≥65 years). All other age groups had extremely low excess-mortality and the typical U-shaped age-pattern was absent. However, relative risk was greatest (3.61) among children and young adolescents (5-14 years) from October 1957-March 1958, based on incidence rates of respiratory deaths. Transmissibility was greatest during the same 1957-1958 period, when the mean reproduction number was 1.08-1.11, assuming 3 or 4 day generation intervals and exponential or fixed distributions.
Conclusions: Maricopa County largely avoided pandemic influenza from 1957-1961. Understanding this historical pandemic and the absence of high excess-mortality rates and transmissibility in Maricopa County may help public health officials prepare for and mitigate future outbreaks of influenza.
In this project we focus on COVID-19 in a university setting. Arizona State University has a very large population on the Tempe Campus. With the emergence of diseases such as COVID-19, it is very important to track how such a disease spreads within that type of community. This is vital for containment measures and the safety of everyone involved. We found in the literature several epidemiology models that utilize differential equations for tracking a spread of a disease. However, our goal is to provide a granular look at how disease may spread through contact in a classroom. This thesis models a single ASU classroom and tracks the spread of a disease. It is important to note that our variables and declarations are not aligned with COVID-19 or any other specific disease but are chosen to exemplify the impact of some key parameters on the epidemic size. We found that a smaller transmissibility alongside a more spread-out classroom of agents resulted in fewer infections overall. There are many extensions to this model that are needed in order to take what we have demonstrated and align those ideas with COVID-19 and it’s spread at ASU. However, this model successfully demonstrates a spread of disease through single-classroom interaction, which is the key component for any university campus disease transmission model.