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- All Subjects: Baseball
- Creators: Department of Information Systems
- Creators: Department of Marketing
- Member of: Barrett, The Honors College Thesis/Creative Project Collection
- Member of: Theses and Dissertations
Description
In recent years, advanced metrics have dominated the game of Major League Baseball. One such metric, the Pythagorean Win-Loss Formula, is commonly used by fans, reporters, analysts and teams alike to use a team’s runs scored and runs allowed to estimate their expected winning percentage. However, this method is not perfect, and shows notable room for improvement. One such area that could be improved is its ability to be affected drastically by a single blowout game, a game in which one team significantly outscores their opponent.<br/>We hypothesize that meaningless runs scored in blowouts are harming the predictive power of Pythagorean Win-Loss and similar win expectancy statistics such as the Linear Formula for Baseball and BaseRuns. We developed a win probability-based cutoff approach that tallied the score of each game once a certain win probability threshold was passed, effectively removing those meaningless runs from a team’s season-long runs scored and runs allowed totals. These truncated totals were then inserted into the Pythagorean Win-Loss and Linear Formulas and tested against the base models.<br/>The preliminary results show that, while certain runs are more meaningful than others depending on the situation in which they are scored, the base models more accurately predicted future record than our truncated versions. For now, there is not enough evidence to either confirm or reject our hypothesis. In this paper, we suggest several potential improvement strategies for the results.<br/>At the end, we address how these results speak to the importance of responsibility and restraint when using advanced statistics within reporting.
ContributorsIversen, Joshua Allen (Author) / Satpathy, Asish (Thesis director) / Kurland, Brett (Committee member) / Department of Information Systems (Contributor) / Walter Cronkite School of Journalism and Mass Comm (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2021-05
Description
The history of baseball in California extends back, long before the first MLB teams relocated to the West Coast. Beginning in the mid-1850s as a result of the large population influx that occurred because of the California Gold Rush, baseball served as a popular form of entertainment in the Golden State for nearly a century before the MLB's westward expansion, starting out as an amateur form of recreation, yet evolving to ultimately become a professional sport, led by the Pacific Coast League (PCL), an organization that fulfilled the same role as the MLB in the Eastern United States. The PCL enjoyed several decades of prosperity, with teams located throughout California and in Washington. One of the league's more successful teams was the Los Angeles Angels. In existence since 1903, the Angels became one of the more popular teams within the PCL and were regularly contenders to win the pennant. In 1956, after multiple attempts to have the city build a new stadium for his team, Walter O'Malley, president of the Brooklyn Dodgers began considering the possibility of relocating the team to a new state. After a series of negotiations, the Dodgers moved to Los Angeles where they began the 1958 season, while the New York Giants relocated to San Francisco. This move ultimately proved to be the downfall of the PCL, which was unable to compete with the new MLB teams. The various ball clubs that made up the PCL soon moved to other states east of California and the league was demoted to AAA status. In the following years, the success brought on by the Dodgers' move to the West Coast became evident and the American League soon decided to create a new franchise in Los Angeles. A name that would harken back to the glory years of the PCL was chosen and the new team was designated the "Los Angeles Angels." Throughout the Angels' history, they have attempted to compete directly with the Dodgers and establish their own fan base, however due to the difficulty in standing out when located so close to the wildly popular Dodgers, the team was unable to establish a successful and unique team identity for the majority of its history. To evaluate the effectiveness of the different changes the Angels have made over time, a study was conducted to evaluate perceptions between the two teams. The findings indicated a preference towards the Angels among participants from the United States, especially those familiar with the MLB and its structure. In contrast, the Dodgers proved to be more popular among participants who were originally from other countries. People who preferred the Angels also appeared to be more competitive than those who indicated a preference for the Dodgers. From these results it appears that the Angels have been successful in their quest to rival the Dodgers and establish their own substantial fan base. However it also seems that the Dodgers may have more international fans, as well as a large number of fans from the United States who tend to be more casual.
ContributorsMonaghan, Joshua Timothy (Author) / Eaton, John (Thesis director) / Mokwa, Michael (Committee member) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor) / Department of Information Systems (Contributor)
Created2015-05
Description
This project looks at the change in strikeout patterns over the past 19 years of Major League Baseball. New research in 2001 revolutionized the pitching statistics field, and non-coincidentally, the number of strikeouts has ballooned since then. I first detail the statistical nature of the increase, looking at where the additional strikeouts are coming from. Then, a discussion of why this has happened, referencing changes in baseball strategy and talent usage optimization follows. The changes in the ways MLB teams use their pitching staffs are largely the cause of this increase. Similar research is cited to confirm that these strategy changes are valid and are having the effect of increasing strikeouts in the game. Strikeout numbers are then compared to other pitching statistics over the years to determine whether the increase has had any effect on other pitching metrics. Lastly, overall team success is looked at as a verification method as to whether the increased focus on increasing strikeouts has created positive results for major league teams. Teams making the MLB playoffs consistently ranked much higher than non-qualifying teams in terms of strikeout rates. Also included in the project are the details of data acquisition and manipulation, to ensure the figures used are valid. Ideas for future research and further work on the topic are included, as the amount of data available in this field is quite staggering. Further analysis could dive into the ways pitches themselves are changing, rather than looking at pitching outcomes. Overall, the project details and explains a major shift in the way baseball has been played over the last 19 years, complete with both pure data analysis and supplementary commentary and explanation
ContributorsCasalena, Jontito (Author) / Doig, Stephen (Thesis director) / Pomrenke, Jacob (Committee member) / Department of Information Systems (Contributor) / School of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2019-05
Description
In baseball, a starting pitcher has historically been a more durable pitcher capable of lasting long into games without tiring. For the entire history of Major League Baseball, these pitchers have been expected to last 6 innings or more into a game before being replaced. However, with the advances in statistics and sabermetrics and their gradual acceptance by professional coaches, the role of the starting pitcher is beginning to change. Teams are experimenting with having starters being replaced quicker, challenging the traditional role of the starting pitcher. The goal of this study is to determine if there is an exact point at which a team would benefit from replacing a starting or relief pitcher with another pitcher using statistical analyses. We will use logistic stepwise regression to predict the likelihood of a team scoring a run if a substitution is made or not made given the current game situation.
ContributorsBuckley, Nicholas J (Author) / Samara, Marko (Thesis director) / Lanchier, Nicolas (Committee member) / School of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences (Contributor) / Department of Information Systems (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2019-05
Description
Major League Baseball (MLB) is home to the oldest sports fans out of the top major sports with 50% of their viewers 55 or older (Paul, 2017). To try and reverse this trend, the MLB has been experimenting with advanced technology to create various ticket programs that appeal to younger people; one of them being the Summer Pass. The pass has allowed casual and die-hard fan groups to purchase a monthly/season long subscription to attend as many home games for one flat rate. While current fans praise the concept of the Summer Pass, teams need to find a way to expand their fan base by influencing young, non-sport fans to start showing up to games. It is imperative for teams to expand their fan base by converting non-fans to fans, especially to a younger generation because of the customer lifetime value (CLV) they can bring to the team. According to Qualtrics, CLV is a measurement of how valuable a customer is to your company with an unlimited time span as opposed to just the first purchase (Qualtrics, 2019). Converting non-fans to fans at a younger age will improve the fan base by maintaining a stream of loyal fans. The Arizona Diamondbacks are fortunate enough to play in a city next to one of the largest college’s in the nation. Unfortunately, college students attending Arizona State University aren’t baseball fans. The Student Pass could be a cheap, efficient way to influence college students to attend Diamondbacks games in their free time.
To see what will influence people who aren’t fans of the Arizona Diamondbacks to start attending games, data was collected from students attending Arizona State University and they were categorized into different clusters based on their fan status. These clusters were analyzed based on the different levels of fandom each student identified as. The analysis found that students who aren’t sports fans are disinterested in purchasing the Student Pass to attend Diamondbacks games. Including Student Pass bundles with either a t-shirt, food credit voucher, or collectible/bobblehead will not influence their decision to attend Arizona Diamondbacks games. Implications of this study provide the next possible steps for the Arizona Diamondbacks and other MLB teams to use alternative measures that could potentially influence non-fans to attend games in hopes of them becoming a fan.
With hopes of increasing attendance rates through college students, a survey was created to target students at Arizona State University to determine how aware students are of the D-Backs Student Pass; and to offer a solution of how to increase attendance by penetrating Generation Z. The results from this study are intended to identify the different fan types at Arizona State University. A summary of key findings says:
1. Including ticket bundles as options for the Student Pass will not influence non-sports or Diamondbacks fans to attend games
2. Diehard Devin are willing to spend more on ticket bundles than the other fan groups that attend Diamondbacks games
3. The most popular ticket option is a $2 ticket to a Friday game
To see what will influence people who aren’t fans of the Arizona Diamondbacks to start attending games, data was collected from students attending Arizona State University and they were categorized into different clusters based on their fan status. These clusters were analyzed based on the different levels of fandom each student identified as. The analysis found that students who aren’t sports fans are disinterested in purchasing the Student Pass to attend Diamondbacks games. Including Student Pass bundles with either a t-shirt, food credit voucher, or collectible/bobblehead will not influence their decision to attend Arizona Diamondbacks games. Implications of this study provide the next possible steps for the Arizona Diamondbacks and other MLB teams to use alternative measures that could potentially influence non-fans to attend games in hopes of them becoming a fan.
With hopes of increasing attendance rates through college students, a survey was created to target students at Arizona State University to determine how aware students are of the D-Backs Student Pass; and to offer a solution of how to increase attendance by penetrating Generation Z. The results from this study are intended to identify the different fan types at Arizona State University. A summary of key findings says:
1. Including ticket bundles as options for the Student Pass will not influence non-sports or Diamondbacks fans to attend games
2. Diehard Devin are willing to spend more on ticket bundles than the other fan groups that attend Diamondbacks games
3. The most popular ticket option is a $2 ticket to a Friday game
ContributorsBurton, Amani (Author) / McIntosh, Daniel (Thesis director) / Eaton, John (Committee member) / Department of Marketing (Contributor, Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2019-05
Description
The Arizona Fall League is a baseball league affiliated with Major League Baseball to provide further development to seven of each MLB team’s top minor league prospects. The games are played at the same stadiums as spring training in Arizona but historically draw a very low attendance in comparison. The marketing strategies currently used to promote and advertise the Arizona Fall League are not sufficient to meet the goal of increased attendance and increased profits as a result. The league currently markets its core product to the customer, meaning the actual baseball game itself along with the highly talented players, rather than the actual product provided to fans, meaning the social utility they gain from their experiences at an Arizona Fall League game along with the game. The league needs to focus mainly on two target markets: men and women ages 18-25 and families with children under 18. In order to shift the focus to the actual product, the league’s marketing staff should run promotions (alongside their current promotions) in association with local sports bars or restaurants and places that provide entertainment, such as Top Golf. They also should revamp their social media accounts to integrate a more fan-focused base for their posts, making fans feel like they are a greater part of the experience. These improvements would drive up attendance and generate more profits for the Arizona Fall League.
ContributorsMcCann, Matthew Donald (Author) / Eaton, John (Thesis director) / McIntosh, Daniel (Committee member) / Department of Finance (Contributor) / School of Accountancy (Contributor) / Department of Marketing (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2020-05
Description
Over the past several decades, analytics have become more and more prevalent in the game of baseball. Statistics are used in nearly every facet of the game. Each team develops its own processes, hoping to gain a competitive advantage over the rest of the league. One area of the game that has struggled to produce definitive analytics is amateur scouting. This project seeks to resolve this problem through the creation of a new statistic, Valued Plate Appearance Index (VPI). The problem is identified through analysis that was performed to determine whether any correlation exists between performances at the country's top amateur baseball league, the Cape Cod League, and performances in Major League Baseball. After several stats were analyzed, almost no correlation was determined between the two. This essentially means that teams have no way to statistically analyze Cape Cod League performance and project future statistics. An inherent contextual error in these amateur statistics prevents them from correlating. The project seeks to close that contextual gap and create concrete, encompassing values to illustrate a player's offensive performance in the Cape League. To solve for this problem, data was collected from the 2017 CCBL season. In addition to VPI, Valued Plate Appearance Approach (VPA) and Valued Plate Appearance Result (VPR) were created to better depict a player's all-around performance in each plate appearance. VPA values the quality of a player's approach in each plate appearance. VPR values the quality of the contact result, excluding factors out of the hitter's control. This statistic isolates player performance as well as eliminates luck that cannot normally be taken into account. This paper results in the segmentation of players from the 2017 CCBL into four different groups, which project how they will perform as they transition into professional baseball. These groups and the creation of these statistics could be essential tools in the evaluation and projection of amateur players by Major League clubs for years to come.
ContributorsLothrop, Joseph Kent (Author) / Eaton, John (Thesis director) / McIntosh, Daniel (Committee member) / Department of Information Systems (Contributor) / Department of Marketing (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2017-12
Description
Our research encompassed the prospect draft in baseball and looked at what type of player teams drafted to maximize value. We wanted to know which position returned the best value to the team that drafted them, and which level is safer to draft players from, college or high school. We decided to look at draft data from 2006-2010 for the first ten rounds of players selected. Because there is only a monetary cap on players drafted in the first ten rounds we restricted our data to these players. Once we set up the parameters we compiled a spreadsheet of these players with both their signing bonuses and their wins above replacement (WAR). This allowed us to see how much a team was spending per win at the major league level. After the data was compiled we made pivot tables and graphs to visually represent our data and better understand the numbers. We found that the worst position that MLB teams could draft would be high school second baseman. They returned the lowest WAR of any player that we looked at. In general though high school players were more costly to sign and had lower WARs than their college counterparts making them, on average, a worse pick value wise. The best position you could pick was college shortstops. They had the trifecta of the best signability of all players, along with one of the highest WARs and lowest signing bonuses. These were three of the main factors that you want with your draft pick and they ranked near the top in all three categories. This research can help give guidelines to Major League teams as they go to select players in the draft. While there are always going to be exceptions to trends, by following the enclosed research teams can minimize risk in the draft.
ContributorsValentine, Robert (Co-author) / Johnson, Ben (Co-author) / Eaton, John (Thesis director) / Goegan, Brian (Committee member) / Department of Finance (Contributor) / Department of Economics (Contributor) / Department of Information Systems (Contributor) / School of Accountancy (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2017-05
Description
Arizona and Florida are unique venues are they are the only two locations in the world to host the preseason leagues known as Spring Training for all thirty Major League Baseball teams. With fan bases willing to travel and spend disposable income to follow their favorite teams and/or escape the cold spells of their home state, the sports and tourism industries in Arizona and Florida have been able to captivate a status as top spring destinations. This study takes a focus on the economic impact that Spring Training in March has on the state of Arizona; specifically the Phoenix Metropolitan area. Consumer research is presented and a SWOT analysis is generated to further assess the condition of the Cactus League and Arizona as a host state. An economic impact study driven by the Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities & Threats (SWOT) analysis method is the primary focuses of research due to the sum and quality of usable data that can be organized using the SWOT structure. The scope of this research aims to support the argument that Spring Training impacts the host city in which it resides in. In conjunction with the SWOT analysis, third parties will be able to get a sense of the overall effectiveness and impact of Cactus League Spring Training in the Valley of the Sun. Integration of findings from a Tampa Bay sight visit will also be assessed to determine the health of the competition. This study will take an interdisciplinary approach as it views the topics at hand from the lenses of the consumer, baseball professional, and investor.
ContributorsOlden, Kyle (Co-author) / Farmer, James (Co-author) / Eaton, John (Thesis director) / Mokwa, Michael (Committee member) / T. Denny Sanford School of Social and Family Dynamics (Contributor) / College of Public Service and Community Solutions (Contributor) / Department of Information Systems (Contributor) / Department of Economics (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2016-05
Description
Entering into my final year of W. P. Carey, I decided I wanted my thesis to combine what I've learned over the course of my undergraduate Marketing degree with my passion for baseball. Furthermore, I wanted my thesis to contain both a research element and creative application. I felt the best way to achieve the integration of these goals was to research and then select an MLB team to relocate to a more attractive American market. After performing research to determine an ideal team and city for relocation, I created a comprehensive marketing strategy to best cater this team for its new market. The first half of my thesis focuses entirely on the research required to select an optimal team and attractive market for relocation. I begin my thesis by performing an external analysis of the current MLB landscape. To elaborate, I gathered W-L records and fan attendance records for all 30 MLB teams between 2000 and 2016. I also collected the most recent team revenues and valuations before putting all of this data in Excel to create visual graphs. Using this data, I determine a list of the top 4 most attractive teams for relocation based on consistently poor performance in the metrics I collected data on. After selecting the Tampa Bay Rays as the ideal team to relocate, I then dive deeper into the organization through an internal analysis. Then, I focus on performing an external analysis of the most attractive markets for relocation before ultimately selecting Charlotte, NC as the best city. My research ends with a comprehensive external analysis of the Charlotte, NC market to help in creating a brand that caters to the makeup and culture of the distinct city. My analysis of Charlotte focuses on the city's demographics, population growth, local economy, political environment and trends that could impact target market segments. After performing extensive research on identifying the best team and city for a relocation, I switch gears to developing a comprehensive marketing strategy to best help the team achieve success in its new market. This begins with creating a unifying segmentation, targeting, and positioning strategy to outline the direction the team will take. These strategies place tremendous emphasis on the need for the Charlotte team to create an "irresistible cultural experience" that expands the traditional MLB mold to attract young Millennial fans to games that normally wouldn't be interested in attending games. Next, I begin by developing key elements of the brand including the team name, logos, uniforms, sponsors, and stadium. With the stadium, I even go as far as determining an ideal location along with unique features, such as lawn seating and even local vendors that have appeared on Food Network to add to the cultural experience of the brand. Then, I focus on a unifying initial marketing campaign through TV/print ads, radio ads, social media, and public relations to help the team seamlessly transition into its new home. My thesis ends with recommendations for future steps to take to ensure the relocated organization achieves lasting success in its new city.
ContributorsSchwartz, Justin David (Author) / Eaton, John (Thesis director) / Mokwa, Michael (Committee member) / Department of Marketing (Contributor) / Department of Supply Chain Management (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2016-12