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- All Subjects: Baseball
- Creators: Department of Economics
- Creators: Industrial, Systems
Description
Social media is used by people every day to discuss the nuances of their lives. Major League Baseball (MLB) is a popular sport in the United States, and as such has generated a great deal of activity on Twitter. As fantasy baseball continues to grow in popularity, so does the research into better algorithms for picking players. Most of the research done in this area focuses on improving the prediction of a player's individual performance. However, the crowd-sourcing power afforded by social media may enable more informed predictions about players' performances. Players are chosen by popularity and personal preferences by most amateur gamblers. While some of these trends (particularly the long-term ones) are captured by ranking systems, this research was focused on predicting the daily spikes in popularity (and therefore price or draft order) by comparing the number of mentions that the player received on Twitter compared to their previous mentions. In doing so, it was demonstrated that improved fantasy baseball predictions can be made through leveraging social media data.
ContributorsRuskin, Lewis John (Author) / Liu, Huan (Thesis director) / Montgomery, Douglas (Committee member) / Morstatter, Fred (Committee member) / Industrial, Systems (Contributor, Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2017-05
Description
The ability to draft and develop productive Major League players is vital to the success of any MLB organization. A core of cost-controlled, productive players is as important as ever with free agent salaries continuing to rise dramatically. In a sport where mere percentage points separate winners from losers at the end of a long season, any slight advantage in identifying talent is valuable. This study examines the 2004-2008 MLB Amateur Drafts in order to analyze whether certain types of prospects are more valuable selections than others. If organizations can better identify which draft prospects will more likely contribute at the Major League level in the future, they can more optimally spend their allotted signing bonus pool in order to acquire as much potential production as possible through the draft. Based on the data examined, during these five drafts high school prospects provided higher value than college prospects. While college players reached the Majors at a higher rate, high school players produced greater value in their first six seasons of service time. In the all-important first round of the draft, where signing bonuses are at their largest, college players proved the more valuable selection. When players were separated by position, position players held greater expected value than pitchers, with corner infielders leading the way as the position group with the highest expected value. College players were found to provide better value than high school players at defensively demanding positions such as catcher and middle infield, while high school players were more valuable among outfielders and pitchers.
ContributorsGildea, Adam Joseph (Author) / Eaton, John (Thesis director) / McIntosh, Daniel (Committee member) / Department of Economics (Contributor) / W. P. Carey School of Business (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2016-05
Description
Arizona and Florida are unique venues are they are the only two locations in the world to host the preseason leagues known as Spring Training for all thirty Major League Baseball teams. With fan bases willing to travel and spend disposable income to follow their favorite teams and/or escape the cold spells of their home state, the sports and tourism industries in Arizona and Florida have been able to captivate a status as top spring destinations. This study takes a focus on the economic impact that Spring Training in March has on the state of Arizona; specifically the Phoenix Metropolitan area. Consumer research is presented and a SWOT analysis is generated to further assess the condition of the Cactus League and Arizona as a host state. An economic impact study driven by the Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities & Threats (SWOT) analysis method is the primary focuses of research due to the sum and quality of usable data that can be organized using the SWOT structure. The scope of this research aims to support the argument that Spring Training impacts the host city in which it resides in. In conjunction with the SWOT analysis, third parties will be able to get a sense of the overall effectiveness and impact of Cactus League Spring Training in the Valley of the Sun. Integration of findings from a Tampa Bay sight visit will also be assessed to determine the health of the competition. This study will take an interdisciplinary approach as it views the topics at hand from the lenses of the consumer, baseball professional, and investor.
ContributorsOlden, Kyle (Co-author) / Farmer, James (Co-author) / Eaton, John (Thesis director) / Mokwa, Michael (Committee member) / T. Denny Sanford School of Social and Family Dynamics (Contributor) / College of Public Service and Community Solutions (Contributor) / Department of Information Systems (Contributor) / Department of Economics (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2016-05
Description
The current Enterprise Requirements and Acquisition Model (ERAM), a discrete event simulation of the major tasks and decisions within the DoD acquisition system, identifies several what-if intervention strategies to improve program completion time. However, processes that contribute to the program acquisition completion time were not explicitly identified in the simulation study. This research seeks to determine the acquisition processes that contribute significantly to total simulated program time in the acquisition system for all programs reaching Milestone C. Specifically, this research examines the effect of increased scope management, technology maturity, and decreased variation and mean process times in post-Design Readiness Review contractor activities by performing additional simulation analyses. Potential policies are formulated from the results to further improve program acquisition completion time.
ContributorsWorger, Danielle Marie (Author) / Wu, Teresa (Thesis director) / Shunk, Dan (Committee member) / Wirthlin, J. Robert (Committee member) / Industrial, Systems (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2013-05
Description
In a season that spans 162 games over the course of six months, MLB teams that travel more face additional fatigue and jetlag from travel. This factor could negatively impact them on the field. To explore this issue, I tested the significance of different variables by creating four models, which compared travel with a team's ability to win games as well as its ability to hit home runs. Based on these models, it appears as though changing time zones does not affect the outcome of games. However, these results did indicate that visiting teams with a greater time zone advantage over their opponent are less likely to hit a home run in a game.
ContributorsAronson, Sean Matthew (Author) / MacFie, Brian (Thesis director) / Eaton, John (Committee member) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor) / Department of Economics (Contributor) / WPC Graduate Programs (Contributor) / Department of Finance (Contributor) / School of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences (Contributor) / W. P. Carey School of Business (Contributor)
Created2014-05
Description
Our research encompassed the prospect draft in baseball and looked at what type of player teams drafted to maximize value. We wanted to know which position returned the best value to the team that drafted them, and which level is safer to draft players from, college or high school. We decided to look at draft data from 2006-2010 for the first ten rounds of players selected. Because there is only a monetary cap on players drafted in the first ten rounds we restricted our data to these players. Once we set up the parameters we compiled a spreadsheet of these players with both their signing bonuses and their wins above replacement (WAR). This allowed us to see how much a team was spending per win at the major league level. After the data was compiled we made pivot tables and graphs to visually represent our data and better understand the numbers. We found that the worst position that MLB teams could draft would be high school second baseman. They returned the lowest WAR of any player that we looked at. In general though high school players were more costly to sign and had lower WARs than their college counterparts making them, on average, a worse pick value wise. The best position you could pick was college shortstops. They had the trifecta of the best signability of all players, along with one of the highest WARs and lowest signing bonuses. These were three of the main factors that you want with your draft pick and they ranked near the top in all three categories. This research can help give guidelines to Major League teams as they go to select players in the draft. While there are always going to be exceptions to trends, by following the enclosed research teams can minimize risk in the draft.
ContributorsValentine, Robert (Co-author) / Johnson, Ben (Co-author) / Eaton, John (Thesis director) / Goegan, Brian (Committee member) / Department of Finance (Contributor) / Department of Economics (Contributor) / Department of Information Systems (Contributor) / School of Accountancy (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2017-05
Description
The widespread use of statistical analysis in sports-particularly Baseball- has made it increasingly necessary for small and mid-market teams to find ways to maintain their analytical advantages over large market clubs. In baseball, an opportunity for exists for teams with limited financial resources to sign players under team control to long-term contracts before other teams can bid for their services in free agency. If small and mid-market clubs can successfully identify talented players early, clubs can save money, achieve cost certainty and remain competitive for longer periods of time. These deals are also advantageous to players since they receive job security and greater financial dividends earlier in their career. The objective of this paper is to develop a regression-based predictive model that teams can use to forecast the performance of young baseball players with limited Major League experience. There were several tasks conducted to achieve this goal: (1) Data was obtained from Major League Baseball and Lahman's Baseball Database and sorted using Excel macros for easier analysis. (2) Players were separated into three positional groups depending on similar fielding requirements and offensive profiles: Group I was comprised of first and third basemen, Group II contains second basemen, shortstops, and center fielders and Group III contains left and right fielders. (3) Based on the context of baseball and the nature of offensive performance metrics, only players who achieve greater than 200 plate appearances within the first two years of their major league debut are included in this analysis. (4) The statistical software package JMP was used to create regression models of each group and analyze the residuals for any irregularities or normality violations. Once the models were developed, slight adjustments were made to improve the accuracy of the forecasts and identify opportunities for future work. It was discovered that Group I and Group III were the easiest player groupings to forecast while Group II required several attempts to improve the model.
ContributorsJack, Nathan Scott (Author) / Shunk, Dan (Thesis director) / Montgomery, Douglas (Committee member) / Borror, Connie (Committee member) / Industrial, Systems (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2013-05
Description
In 2021-2022, MLB underwent a labor stoppage due to a failure between the league and union to sign a new collective bargaining agreement (CBA) for the 2022 season until mid-March of 2022. This failure led to a contentious debate between owners and players over economic, competitive balance, and gameplay issues. To evaluate how MLB has reached this point in labor relations and make predictions for the future, it is first important to look at the history of sports and collective bargaining and, more specifically, this history in baseball. Next, one should evaluate the history of the antitrust exemption and its impact on labor relations in MLB. It is then important to analyze the main tenets of the 2022 CBA and their implications. Following this historical and current analysis, one can make hypotheses about where baseball labor relations and antitrust laws are heading and what will be key issues to look toward in the future.
ContributorsVolkert, Michael (Author) / Eaton, John (Thesis director) / McIntosh, Daniel (Committee member) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor) / Department of Economics (Contributor) / Department of Marketing (Contributor) / Dean, W.P. Carey School of Business (Contributor)
Created2023-05
ContributorsVolkert, Michael (Author) / Eaton, John (Thesis director) / McIntosh, Daniel (Committee member) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor) / Department of Economics (Contributor) / Department of Marketing (Contributor) / Dean, W.P. Carey School of Business (Contributor)
Created2023-05
Description
In 2021-2022, MLB underwent a labor stoppage due to a failure between the league and union to sign a new collective bargaining agreement (CBA) for the 2022 season until mid-March of 2022. This failure led to a contentious debate between owners and players over economic, competitive balance, and gameplay issues. To evaluate how MLB has reached this point in labor relations and make predictions for the future, it is first important to look at the history of sports and collective bargaining and, more specifically, this history in baseball. Next, one should evaluate the history of the antitrust exemption and its impact on labor relations in MLB. It is then important to analyze the main tenets of the 2022 CBA and their implications. Following this historical and current analysis, one can make hypotheses about where baseball labor relations and antitrust laws are heading and what will be key issues to look toward in the future.
ContributorsVolkert, Michael (Author) / Eaton, John (Thesis director) / McIntosh, Daniel (Committee member) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor) / Department of Economics (Contributor) / Department of Marketing (Contributor) / Dean, W.P. Carey School of Business (Contributor)
Created2023-05