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Catastrophe events occur rather infrequently, but upon their occurrence, can lead to colossal losses for insurance companies. Due to their size and volatility, catastrophe losses are often treated separately from other insurance losses. In fact, many property and casualty insurance companies feature a department or team which focuses solely on

Catastrophe events occur rather infrequently, but upon their occurrence, can lead to colossal losses for insurance companies. Due to their size and volatility, catastrophe losses are often treated separately from other insurance losses. In fact, many property and casualty insurance companies feature a department or team which focuses solely on modeling catastrophes. Setting reserves for catastrophe losses is difficult due to their unpredictable and often long-tailed nature. Determining loss development factors (LDFs) to estimate the ultimate loss amounts for catastrophe events is one method for setting reserves. In an attempt to aid Company XYZ set more accurate reserves, the research conducted focuses on estimating LDFs for catastrophes which have already occurred and have been settled. Furthermore, the research describes the process used to build a linear model in R to estimate LDFs for Company XYZ's closed catastrophe claims from 2001 \u2014 2016. This linear model was used to predict a catastrophe's LDFs based on the age in weeks of the catastrophe during the first year. Back testing was also performed, as was the comparison between the estimated ultimate losses and actual losses. Future research consideration was proposed.
ContributorsSwoverland, Robert Bo (Author) / Milovanovic, Jelena (Thesis director) / Zicarelli, John (Committee member) / School of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2018-05
Description

Consider Steven Cryos’ words, “When disaster strikes, the time to prepare has passed.” Witnessing domestic water insecurity in events such as Hurricane Katrina, the instability in Flint, Michigan, and most recently the winter storms affecting millions across Texas, we decided to take action. The period between a water supply’s disruption

Consider Steven Cryos’ words, “When disaster strikes, the time to prepare has passed.” Witnessing domestic water insecurity in events such as Hurricane Katrina, the instability in Flint, Michigan, and most recently the winter storms affecting millions across Texas, we decided to take action. The period between a water supply’s disruption and restoration is filled with anxiety, uncertainty, and distress -- particularly since there is no clear indication of when, exactly, restoration comes. It is for this reason that Water Works now exists. As a team of students from diverse backgrounds, what started as an honors project with the Founders Lab at Arizona State University became the seed that will continue to mature into an economically sustainable business model supporting the optimistic visions and tenants of humanitarianism. By having conversations with community members, conducting market research, competing for funding and fostering progress amid the COVID-19 pandemic, our team’s problem-solving traverses the disciplines. The purpose of this paper is to educate our readers about a unique solution to emerging issues of water insecurity that are nested across and within systems who could benefit from the introduction of a personal water reclamation system, showcase our team’s entrepreneurial journey, and propose future directions that will this once pedagogical exercise to continue fulfilling its mission: To heal, to hydrate, and to help bring safe water to everyone.

ContributorsFilipek, Marina (Co-author) / Sadiasa, Aira (Co-author) / Reitzel, Gage (Co-author) / Byrne, Jared (Thesis director) / Sebold, Brent (Committee member) / Department of Finance (Contributor) / School of International Letters and Cultures (Contributor) / Dean, W.P. Carey School of Business (Contributor) / Economics Program in CLAS (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2021-05
Description

Water markets are a promising method for adapting to water scarcity in the western United States, and the Colorado-Big Thompson Project (CBT) market is often held up as a prime example of their potential. While much has been written about the CBT market, the current academic literature tends to eschew

Water markets are a promising method for adapting to water scarcity in the western United States, and the Colorado-Big Thompson Project (CBT) market is often held up as a prime example of their potential. While much has been written about the CBT market, the current academic literature tends to eschew structural modeling of supply and demand in favor of fitting hedonic price equations, which ignore many of the market’s unique characteristics. This paper proposes a model of supply and demand for CBT water which accounts for these unique features, including transaction supply, municipality stockpiling, and differences in behavior across different types of water users. The estimation of this model is made possible by novel administrative records data on both transfers and ownership of CBT water, the processing and features of which are described in detail. While the voluminous and messy nature of the data has prevented complete estimation of the model at this point, some preliminary results are presented along with a plan for future work.

Created2022-12
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Description
AARP estimates that 90% of seniors wish to remain in their homes during retirement. Seniors need assistance as they age, historically they have received assistance from either family members, nursing homes, or Continuing Care Retirement Communities. For seniors not wanting any of these options, there has been very few alternatives.

AARP estimates that 90% of seniors wish to remain in their homes during retirement. Seniors need assistance as they age, historically they have received assistance from either family members, nursing homes, or Continuing Care Retirement Communities. For seniors not wanting any of these options, there has been very few alternatives. Now, the emergence of the continuing care at home program is providing hope for a different method of elder care moving forward. CCaH programs offer services such as: skilled nursing care, care coordination, emergency response systems, aid with personal and health care, and transportation. Such services allow seniors to continue to live in their own home with assistance as their health deteriorates over time. Currently, only 30 CCaH programs exist. With the growth of the elderly population in the coming years, this model seems poised for growth.
ContributorsSturm, Brendan (Author) / Milovanovic, Jelena (Thesis director) / Hassett, Matthew (Committee member) / School of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences (Contributor) / Economics Program in CLAS (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2019-05
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Description
There is a growing interest among policymakers and economists in quantifying the relationship between climate and economic output. Previous studies have demon- strated a clear relationship between temperature on economic growth but they generally do not report significant impacts of rainfall in regions outside of developing countries. Using gridded panel

There is a growing interest among policymakers and economists in quantifying the relationship between climate and economic output. Previous studies have demon- strated a clear relationship between temperature on economic growth but they generally do not report significant impacts of rainfall in regions outside of developing countries. Using gridded panel data, this paper estimates the effects of the number of days during the growing season with no rainfall on per capita gross domestic product (GDP) growth in the areas of the United States over the Ogallala and Mississippi Aquifers. Measuring precipitation in terms of growing season dry days instead of aggregate rainfall levels reveals a strong negative relationship between rainfall deficits and economic growth.
ContributorsMann, John (Author) / Hanemann, Michael (Thesis director) / Kuminoff, Nicolai (Committee member) / Economics Program in CLAS (Contributor) / School of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2020-05