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- All Subjects: Statistics
- Creators: Wu, Teresa
- Creators: Runger, George C.
- Member of: ASU Electronic Theses and Dissertations
Description
Nowadays product reliability becomes the top concern of the manufacturers and customers always prefer the products with good performances under long period. In order to estimate the lifetime of the product, accelerated life testing (ALT) is introduced because most of the products can last years even decades. Much research has been done in the ALT area and optimal design for ALT is a major topic. This dissertation consists of three main studies. First, a methodology of finding optimal design for ALT with right censoring and interval censoring have been developed and it employs the proportional hazard (PH) model and generalized linear model (GLM) to simplify the computational process. A sensitivity study is also given to show the effects brought by parameters to the designs. Second, an extended version of I-optimal design for ALT is discussed and then a dual-objective design criterion is defined and showed with several examples. Also in order to evaluate different candidate designs, several graphical tools are developed. Finally, when there are more than one models available, different model checking designs are discussed.
ContributorsYang, Tao (Author) / Pan, Rong (Thesis advisor) / Montgomery, Douglas C. (Committee member) / Borror, Connie (Committee member) / Rigdon, Steve (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2013
Description
With the increase in computing power and availability of data, there has never been a greater need to understand data and make decisions from it. Traditional statistical techniques may not be adequate to handle the size of today's data or the complexities of the information hidden within the data. Thus knowledge discovery by machine learning techniques is necessary if we want to better understand information from data. In this dissertation, we explore the topics of asymmetric loss and asymmetric data in machine learning and propose new algorithms as solutions to some of the problems in these topics. We also studied variable selection of matched data sets and proposed a solution when there is non-linearity in the matched data. The research is divided into three parts. The first part addresses the problem of asymmetric loss. A proposed asymmetric support vector machine (aSVM) is used to predict specific classes with high accuracy. aSVM was shown to produce higher precision than a regular SVM. The second part addresses asymmetric data sets where variables are only predictive for a subset of the predictor classes. Asymmetric Random Forest (ARF) was proposed to detect these kinds of variables. The third part explores variable selection for matched data sets. Matched Random Forest (MRF) was proposed to find variables that are able to distinguish case and control without the restrictions that exists in linear models. MRF detects variables that are able to distinguish case and control even in the presence of interaction and qualitative variables.
ContributorsKoh, Derek (Author) / Runger, George C. (Thesis advisor) / Wu, Tong (Committee member) / Pan, Rong (Committee member) / Cesta, John (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2013
Description
Buildings (approximately half commercial and half residential) consume over 70% of the electricity among all the consumption units in the United States. Buildings are also responsible for approximately 40% of CO2 emissions, which is more than any other industry sectors. As a result, the initiative smart building which aims to not only manage electrical consumption in an efficient way but also reduce the damaging effect of greenhouse gases on the environment has been launched. Another important technology being promoted by government agencies is the smart grid which manages energy usage across a wide range of buildings in an effort to reduce cost and increase reliability and transparency. As a great amount of efforts have been devoted to these two initiatives by either exploring the smart grid designs or developing technologies for smart buildings, the research studying how the smart buildings and smart grid coordinate thus more efficiently use the energy is currently lacking. In this dissertation, a "system-of-system" approach is employed to develop an integrated building model which consists a number of buildings (building cluster) interacting with smart grid. The buildings can function as both energy consumption unit as well as energy generation/storage unit. Memetic Algorithm (MA) and Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) based decision framework are developed for building operation decisions. In addition, Particle Filter (PF) is explored as a mean for fusing online sensor and meter data so adaptive decision could be made in responding to dynamic environment. The dissertation is divided into three inter-connected research components. First, an integrated building energy model including building consumption, storage, generation sub-systems for the building cluster is developed. Then a bi-level Memetic Algorithm (MA) based decentralized decision framework is developed to identify the Pareto optimal operation strategies for the building cluster. The Pareto solutions not only enable multiple dimensional tradeoff analysis, but also provide valuable insight for determining pricing mechanisms and power grid capacity. Secondly, a multi-objective PSO based decision framework is developed to reduce the computational effort of the MA based decision framework without scarifying accuracy. With the improved performance, the decision time scale could be refined to make it capable for hourly operation decisions. Finally, by integrating the multi-objective PSO based decision framework with PF, an adaptive framework is developed for adaptive operation decisions for smart building cluster. The adaptive framework not only enables me to develop a high fidelity decision model but also enables the building cluster to respond to the dynamics and uncertainties inherent in the system.
ContributorsHu, Mengqi (Author) / Wu, Teresa (Thesis advisor) / Weir, Jeffery (Thesis advisor) / Wen, Jin (Committee member) / Fowler, John (Committee member) / Shunk, Dan (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2012
Description
Temporal data are increasingly prevalent and important in analytics. Time series (TS) data are chronological sequences of observations and an important class of temporal data. Fields such as medicine, finance, learning science and multimedia naturally generate TS data. Each series provide a high-dimensional data vector that challenges the learning of the relevant patterns This dissertation proposes TS representations and methods for supervised TS analysis. The approaches combine new representations that handle translations and dilations of patterns with bag-of-features strategies and tree-based ensemble learning. This provides flexibility in handling time-warped patterns in a computationally efficient way. The ensemble learners provide a classification framework that can handle high-dimensional feature spaces, multiple classes and interaction between features. The proposed representations are useful for classification and interpretation of the TS data of varying complexity. The first contribution handles the problem of time warping with a feature-based approach. An interval selection and local feature extraction strategy is proposed to learn a bag-of-features representation. This is distinctly different from common similarity-based time warping. This allows for additional features (such as pattern location) to be easily integrated into the models. The learners have the capability to account for the temporal information through the recursive partitioning method. The second contribution focuses on the comprehensibility of the models. A new representation is integrated with local feature importance measures from tree-based ensembles, to diagnose and interpret time intervals that are important to the model. Multivariate time series (MTS) are especially challenging because the input consists of a collection of TS and both features within TS and interactions between TS can be important to models. Another contribution uses a different representation to produce computationally efficient strategies that learn a symbolic representation for MTS. Relationships between the multiple TS, nominal and missing values are handled with tree-based learners. Applications such as speech recognition, medical diagnosis and gesture recognition are used to illustrate the methods. Experimental results show that the TS representations and methods provide better results than competitive methods on a comprehensive collection of benchmark datasets. Moreover, the proposed approaches naturally provide solutions to similarity analysis, predictive pattern discovery and feature selection.
ContributorsBaydogan, Mustafa Gokce (Author) / Runger, George C. (Thesis advisor) / Atkinson, Robert (Committee member) / Gel, Esma (Committee member) / Pan, Rong (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2012
Description
Public health surveillance is a special case of the general problem where counts (or rates) of events are monitored for changes. Modern data complements event counts with many additional measurements (such as geographic, demographic, and others) that comprise high-dimensional covariates. This leads to an important challenge to detect a change that only occurs within a region, initially unspecified, defined by these covariates. Current methods are typically limited to spatial and/or temporal covariate information and often fail to use all the information available in modern data that can be paramount in unveiling these subtle changes. Additional complexities associated with modern health data that are often not accounted for by traditional methods include: covariates of mixed type, missing values, and high-order interactions among covariates. This work proposes a transform of public health surveillance to supervised learning, so that an appropriate learner can inherently address all the complexities described previously. At the same time, quantitative measures from the learner can be used to define signal criteria to detect changes in rates of events. A Feature Selection (FS) method is used to identify covariates that contribute to a model and to generate a signal. A measure of statistical significance is included to control false alarms. An alternative Percentile method identifies the specific cases that lead to changes using class probability estimates from tree-based ensembles. This second method is intended to be less computationally intensive and significantly simpler to implement. Finally, a third method labeled Rule-Based Feature Value Selection (RBFVS) is proposed for identifying the specific regions in high-dimensional space where the changes are occurring. Results on simulated examples are used to compare the FS method and the Percentile method. Note this work emphasizes the application of the proposed methods on public health surveillance. Nonetheless, these methods can easily be extended to a variety of applications where counts (or rates) of events are monitored for changes. Such problems commonly occur in domains such as manufacturing, economics, environmental systems, engineering, as well as in public health.
ContributorsDavila, Saylisse (Author) / Runger, George C. (Thesis advisor) / Montgomery, Douglas C. (Committee member) / Young, Dennis (Committee member) / Gel, Esma (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2010
Description
This dissertation centers on treatment effect estimation in the field of causal inference, and aims to expand the toolkit for effect estimation when the treatment variable is binary. Two new stochastic tree-ensemble methods for treatment effect estimation in the continuous outcome setting are presented. The Accelerated Bayesian Causal Forrest (XBCF) model handles variance via a group-specific parameter, and the Heteroskedastic version of XBCF (H-XBCF) uses a separate tree ensemble to learn covariate-dependent variance. This work also contributes to the field of survival analysis by proposing a new framework for estimating survival probabilities via density regression. Within this framework, the Heteroskedastic Accelerated Bayesian Additive Regression Trees (H-XBART) model, which is also developed as part of this work, is utilized in treatment effect estimation for right-censored survival outcomes. All models have been implemented as part of the XBART R package, and their performance is evaluated via extensive simulation studies with appropriate sets of comparators. The contributed methods achieve similar levels of performance, while being orders of magnitude (sometimes as much as 100x) faster than comparator state-of-the-art methods, thus offering an exciting opportunity for treatment effect estimation in the large data setting.
ContributorsKrantsevich, Nikolay (Author) / Hahn, P Richard (Thesis advisor) / McCulloch, Robert (Committee member) / Zhou, Shuang (Committee member) / Lan, Shiwei (Committee member) / He, Jingyu (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2023
Description
Tracking disease cases is an essential task in public health; however, tracking the number of cases of a disease may be difficult not every infection can be recorded by public health authorities. Notably, this may happen with whole country measles case reports, even such countries with robust registration systems. Eilertson et al. (2019) propose using a state-space model combined with maximum likelihood methods for estimating measles transmission. A Bayesian approach that uses particle Markov Chain Monte Carlo (pMCMC) is proposed to estimate the parameters of the non-linear state-space model developed in Eilertson et al. (2019) and similar previous studies. This dissertation illustrates the performance of this approach by calculating posterior estimates of the model parameters and predictions of the unobserved states in simulations and case studies. Also, Iteration Filtering (IF2) is used as a support method to verify the Bayesian estimation and to inform the selection of prior distributions. In the second half of the thesis, a birth-death process is proposed to model the unobserved population size of a disease vector. This model studies the effect of a disease vector population size on a second affected population. The second population follows a non-homogenous Poisson process when conditioned on the vector process with a transition rate given by a scaled version of the vector population. The observation model also measures a potential threshold event when the host species population size surpasses a certain level yielding a higher transmission rate. A maximum likelihood procedure is developed for this model, which combines particle filtering with the Minorize-Maximization (MM) algorithm and extends the work of Crawford et al. (2014).
ContributorsMartinez Rivera, Wilmer Osvaldo (Author) / Fricks, John (Thesis advisor) / Reiser, Mark (Committee member) / Zhou, Shuang (Committee member) / Cheng, Dan (Committee member) / Lan, Shiwei (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2022
Description
The COVID-19 outbreak that started in 2020, brought the world to its knees and is still a menace after three years. Over eighty-five million cases and over a million deaths have occurred due to COVID-19 during that time in the United States alone. A great deal of research has gone into making epidemic models to show the impact of the virus by plotting the cases, deaths, and hospitalization due to COVID-19. However, there is very less research that has anything to do with mapping different variants of COVID-19. SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, constantly mutates and multiple variants have emerged over time. The major variants include Beta, Gamma, Delta and the recent one, Omicron. The purpose of the research done in this thesis is to modify one of the epidemic models i.e., the Spatially Informed Rapid Testing for Epidemic Model (SIRTEM), in such a way that various variants of the virus will be modelled at the same time. The model will be assessed by adding the Omicron and the Delta variants and in doing so, the effects of different variants can be studied by looking at the positive cases, hospitalizations, and deaths from both the variants for the Arizona Population. The focus will be to find the best infection rate and testing rate by using Random numbers so that the published positive cases and the positive cases derived from the model have the least mean square error.
ContributorsVarghese, Allen Moncey (Author) / Pedrielli, Giulia (Thesis advisor) / Candan, Kasim S (Committee member) / Wu, Teresa (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2022
Description
High-dimensional data is omnipresent in modern industrial systems. An imaging sensor in a manufacturing plant a can take images of millions of pixels or a sensor may collect months of data at very granular time steps. Dimensionality reduction techniques are commonly used for dealing with such data. In addition, outliers typically exist in such data, which may be of direct or indirect interest given the nature of the problem that is being solved. Current research does not address the interdependent nature of dimensionality reduction and outliers. Some works ignore the existence of outliers altogether—which discredits the robustness of these methods in real life—while others provide suboptimal, often band-aid solutions. In this dissertation, I propose novel methods to achieve outlier-awareness in various dimensionality reduction methods. The problem is considered from many different angles depend- ing on the dimensionality reduction technique used (e.g., deep autoencoder, tensors), the nature of the application (e.g., manufacturing, transportation) and the outlier structure (e.g., sparse point anomalies, novelties).
ContributorsSergin, Nurettin Dorukhan (Author) / Yan, Hao (Thesis advisor) / Li, Jing (Committee member) / Wu, Teresa (Committee member) / Tsung, Fugee (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2021
Description
This dissertation covers several topics in machine learning and causal inference. First, the question of “feature selection,” a common byproduct of regularized machine learning methods, is investigated theoretically in the context of treatment effect estimation. This involves a detailed review and extension of frameworks for estimating causal effects and in-depth theoretical study. Next, various computational approaches to estimating causal effects with machine learning methods are compared with these theoretical desiderata in mind. Several improvements to current methods for causal machine learning are identified and compelling angles for further study are pinpointed. Finally, a common method used for “explaining” predictions of machine learning algorithms, SHAP, is evaluated critically through a statistical lens.
ContributorsHerren, Andrew (Author) / Hahn, P Richard (Thesis advisor) / Kao, Ming-Hung (Committee member) / Lopes, Hedibert (Committee member) / McCulloch, Robert (Committee member) / Zhou, Shuang (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2023