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- All Subjects: Educational tests & measurements
- Creators: Levy, Roy
- Creators: Wilson, Jeffrey
Description
Many longitudinal studies, especially in clinical trials, suffer from missing data issues. Most estimation procedures assume that the missing values are ignorable or missing at random (MAR). However, this assumption leads to unrealistic simplification and is implausible for many cases. For example, an investigator is examining the effect of treatment on depression. Subjects are scheduled with doctors on a regular basis and asked questions about recent emotional situations. Patients who are experiencing severe depression are more likely to miss an appointment and leave the data missing for that particular visit. Data that are not missing at random may produce bias in results if the missing mechanism is not taken into account. In other words, the missing mechanism is related to the unobserved responses. Data are said to be non-ignorable missing if the probabilities of missingness depend on quantities that might not be included in the model. Classical pattern-mixture models for non-ignorable missing values are widely used for longitudinal data analysis because they do not require explicit specification of the missing mechanism, with the data stratified according to a variety of missing patterns and a model specified for each stratum. However, this usually results in under-identifiability, because of the need to estimate many stratum-specific parameters even though the eventual interest is usually on the marginal parameters. Pattern mixture models have the drawback that a large sample is usually required. In this thesis, two studies are presented. The first study is motivated by an open problem from pattern mixture models. Simulation studies from this part show that information in the missing data indicators can be well summarized by a simple continuous latent structure, indicating that a large number of missing data patterns may be accounted by a simple latent factor. Simulation findings that are obtained in the first study lead to a novel model, a continuous latent factor model (CLFM). The second study develops CLFM which is utilized for modeling the joint distribution of missing values and longitudinal outcomes. The proposed CLFM model is feasible even for small sample size applications. The detailed estimation theory, including estimating techniques from both frequentist and Bayesian perspectives is presented. Model performance and evaluation are studied through designed simulations and three applications. Simulation and application settings change from correctly-specified missing data mechanism to mis-specified mechanism and include different sample sizes from longitudinal studies. Among three applications, an AIDS study includes non-ignorable missing values; the Peabody Picture Vocabulary Test data have no indication on missing data mechanism and it will be applied to a sensitivity analysis; the Growth of Language and Early Literacy Skills in Preschoolers with Developmental Speech and Language Impairment study, however, has full complete data and will be used to conduct a robust analysis. The CLFM model is shown to provide more precise estimators, specifically on intercept and slope related parameters, compared with Roy's latent class model and the classic linear mixed model. This advantage will be more obvious when a small sample size is the case, where Roy's model experiences challenges on estimation convergence. The proposed CLFM model is also robust when missing data are ignorable as demonstrated through a study on Growth of Language and Early Literacy Skills in Preschoolers.
ContributorsZhang, Jun (Author) / Reiser, Mark R. (Thesis advisor) / Barber, Jarrett (Thesis advisor) / Kao, Ming-Hung (Committee member) / Wilson, Jeffrey (Committee member) / St Louis, Robert D. (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2013
Description
Dimensionality assessment is an important component of evaluating item response data. Existing approaches to evaluating common assumptions of unidimensionality, such as DIMTEST (Nandakumar & Stout, 1993; Stout, 1987; Stout, Froelich, & Gao, 2001), have been shown to work well under large-scale assessment conditions (e.g., large sample sizes and item pools; see e.g., Froelich & Habing, 2007). It remains to be seen how such procedures perform in the context of small-scale assessments characterized by relatively small sample sizes and/or short tests. The fact that some procedures come with minimum allowable values for characteristics of the data, such as the number of items, may even render them unusable for some small-scale assessments. Other measures designed to assess dimensionality do not come with such limitations and, as such, may perform better under conditions that do not lend themselves to evaluation via statistics that rely on asymptotic theory. The current work aimed to evaluate the performance of one such metric, the standardized generalized dimensionality discrepancy measure (SGDDM; Levy & Svetina, 2011; Levy, Xu, Yel, & Svetina, 2012), under both large- and small-scale testing conditions. A Monte Carlo study was conducted to compare the performance of DIMTEST and the SGDDM statistic in terms of evaluating assumptions of unidimensionality in item response data under a variety of conditions, with an emphasis on the examination of these procedures in small-scale assessments. Similar to previous research, increases in either test length or sample size resulted in increased power. The DIMTEST procedure appeared to be a conservative test of the null hypothesis of unidimensionality. The SGDDM statistic exhibited rejection rates near the nominal rate of .05 under unidimensional conditions, though the reliability of these results may have been less than optimal due to high sampling variability resulting from a relatively limited number of replications. Power values were at or near 1.0 for many of the multidimensional conditions. It was only when the sample size was reduced to N = 100 that the two approaches diverged in performance. Results suggested that both procedures may be appropriate for sample sizes as low as N = 250 and tests as short as J = 12 (SGDDM) or J = 19 (DIMTEST). When used as a diagnostic tool, SGDDM may be appropriate with as few as N = 100 cases combined with J = 12 items. The study was somewhat limited in that it did not include any complex factorial designs, nor were the strength of item discrimination parameters or correlation between factors manipulated. It is recommended that further research be conducted with the inclusion of these factors, as well as an increase in the number of replications when using the SGDDM procedure.
ContributorsReichenberg, Ray E (Author) / Levy, Roy (Thesis advisor) / Thompson, Marilyn S. (Thesis advisor) / Green, Samuel B. (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2013
Description
This simulation study compared the utility of various discrepancy measures within a posterior predictive model checking (PPMC) framework for detecting different types of data-model misfit in multidimensional Bayesian network (BN) models. The investigated conditions were motivated by an applied research program utilizing an operational complex performance assessment within a digital-simulation educational context grounded in theories of cognition and learning. BN models were manipulated along two factors: latent variable dependency structure and number of latent classes. Distributions of posterior predicted p-values (PPP-values) served as the primary outcome measure and were summarized in graphical presentations, by median values across replications, and by proportions of replications in which the PPP-values were extreme. An effect size measure for PPMC was introduced as a supplemental numerical summary to the PPP-value. Consistent with previous PPMC research, all investigated fit functions tended to perform conservatively, but Standardized Generalized Dimensionality Discrepancy Measure (SGDDM), Yen's Q3, and Hierarchy Consistency Index (HCI) only mildly so. Adequate power to detect at least some types of misfit was demonstrated by SGDDM, Q3, HCI, Item Consistency Index (ICI), and to a lesser extent Deviance, while proportion correct (PC), a chi-square-type item-fit measure, Ranked Probability Score (RPS), and Good's Logarithmic Scale (GLS) were powerless across all investigated factors. Bivariate SGDDM and Q3 were found to provide powerful and detailed feedback for all investigated types of misfit.
ContributorsCrawford, Aaron (Author) / Levy, Roy (Thesis advisor) / Green, Samuel (Committee member) / Thompson, Marilyn (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2014
Description
The study examined how ATFIND, Mantel-Haenszel, SIBTEST, and Crossing SIBTEST function when items in the dataset are modelled to differentially advantage a lower ability focal group over a higher ability reference group. The primary purpose of the study was to examine ATFIND's usefulness as a valid subtest selection tool, but it also explored the influence of DIF items, item difficulty, and presence of multiple examinee populations with different ability distributions on both its selection of the assessment test (AT) and partitioning test (PT) lists and on all three differential item functioning (DIF) analysis procedures. The results of SIBTEST were also combined with those of Crossing SIBTEST, as might be done in practice.
ATFIND was found to be a less-than-effective matching subtest selection tool with DIF items that are modelled unidimensionally. If an item was modelled with uniform DIF or if it had a referent difficulty parameter in the Medium range, it was found to be selected slightly more often for the AT List than the PT List. These trends were seen to increase as sample size increased. All three DIF analyses, and the combined SIBTEST and Crossing SIBTEST, generally were found to perform less well as DIF contaminated the matching subtest, as well as when DIF was modelled less severely or when the focal group ability was skewed. While the combined SIBTEST and Crossing SIBTEST was found to have the highest power among the DIF analyses, it also was found to have Type I error rates that were sometimes extremely high.
ATFIND was found to be a less-than-effective matching subtest selection tool with DIF items that are modelled unidimensionally. If an item was modelled with uniform DIF or if it had a referent difficulty parameter in the Medium range, it was found to be selected slightly more often for the AT List than the PT List. These trends were seen to increase as sample size increased. All three DIF analyses, and the combined SIBTEST and Crossing SIBTEST, generally were found to perform less well as DIF contaminated the matching subtest, as well as when DIF was modelled less severely or when the focal group ability was skewed. While the combined SIBTEST and Crossing SIBTEST was found to have the highest power among the DIF analyses, it also was found to have Type I error rates that were sometimes extremely high.
ContributorsScott, Lietta Marie (Author) / Levy, Roy (Thesis advisor) / Green, Samuel B (Thesis advisor) / Gorin, Joanna S (Committee member) / Williams, Leila E (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2014
Description
Missing data are common in psychology research and can lead to bias and reduced power if not properly handled. Multiple imputation is a state-of-the-art missing data method recommended by methodologists. Multiple imputation methods can generally be divided into two broad categories: joint model (JM) imputation and fully conditional specification (FCS) imputation. JM draws missing values simultaneously for all incomplete variables using a multivariate distribution (e.g., multivariate normal). FCS, on the other hand, imputes variables one at a time, drawing missing values from a series of univariate distributions. In the single-level context, these two approaches have been shown to be equivalent with multivariate normal data. However, less is known about the similarities and differences of these two approaches with multilevel data, and the methodological literature provides no insight into the situations under which the approaches would produce identical results. This document examined five multilevel multiple imputation approaches (three JM methods and two FCS methods) that have been proposed in the literature. An analytic section shows that only two of the methods (one JM method and one FCS method) used imputation models equivalent to a two-level joint population model that contained random intercepts and different associations across levels. The other three methods employed imputation models that differed from the population model primarily in their ability to preserve distinct level-1 and level-2 covariances. I verified the analytic work with computer simulations, and the simulation results also showed that imputation models that failed to preserve level-specific covariances produced biased estimates. The studies also highlighted conditions that exacerbated the amount of bias produced (e.g., bias was greater for conditions with small cluster sizes). The analytic work and simulations lead to a number of practical recommendations for researchers.
ContributorsMistler, Stephen (Author) / Enders, Craig K. (Thesis advisor) / Aiken, Leona (Committee member) / Levy, Roy (Committee member) / West, Stephen G. (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2015
Description
Many methodological approaches have been utilized to predict student retention and persistence over the years, yet few have utilized a Bayesian framework. It is believed this is due in part to the absence of an established process for guiding educational researchers reared in a frequentist perspective into the realms of Bayesian analysis and educational data mining. The current study aimed to address this by providing a model-building process for developing a Bayesian network (BN) that leveraged educational data mining, Bayesian analysis, and traditional iterative model-building techniques in order to predict whether community college students will stop out at the completion of each of their first six terms. The study utilized exploratory and confirmatory techniques to reduce an initial pool of more than 50 potential predictor variables to a parsimonious final BN with only four predictor variables. The average in-sample classification accuracy rate for the model was 80% (Cohen's κ = 53%). The model was shown to be generalizable across samples with an average out-of-sample classification accuracy rate of 78% (Cohen's κ = 49%). The classification rates for the BN were also found to be superior to the classification rates produced by an analog frequentist discrete-time survival analysis model.
ContributorsArcuria, Philip (Author) / Levy, Roy (Thesis advisor) / Green, Samuel B (Committee member) / Thompson, Marilyn S (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2015
Description
Institutions of higher education often tout that they are developing students to become lifelong learners. Evaluative efforts in this area have been presumably hindered by the lack of a uniform conceptualization of lifelong learning. Lifelong learning has been defined from institutional, economic, socio-cultural, and pedagogical perspectives, among others. This study presents the existing operational definitions and theories of lifelong learning in the context of higher education and synthesizes them to propose a unified model of college students' orientation toward lifelong learning. The model theorizes that orientation toward lifelong learning is a latent construct which manifests as students' likelihood to engage in four types of learning activities: formal work-related activities, informal work-related activities, formal personal interest activities, and informal personal interest activities. The Postsecondary Orientation toward Lifelong Learning scale (POLL) was developed and the validity of the resulting score interpretations was examined. The instrument was used to compare potential differences in orientation toward lifelong learning between freshmen and seniors. Exploratory factor analyses of the responses of 138 undergraduate college students in the pilot study data provided tentative support for the factor structure within each type of learning activity. Guttman's <λ>λ2 estimates of the learning activity subscales ranged from .78 to .85. Follow-up confirmatory factor analysis using structural equation modeling did not corroborate support for the hypothesized four-factor model using the main student sample data of 405 undergraduate students. Several alternative reflective factor structures were explored. A two-factor model representing factors for Instructing/Presenting and Reading learning activities produced marginal model-data fit and warrants further investigation. The summed POLL total scores had a relatively strong positive correlation with global interest in learning (.58), moderate positive correlations with civic engagement and participation (.38) and life satisfaction (.29), and a small positive correlation with social desirability (.15). The results of the main study do not provide support for the malleability of postsecondary students' orientation toward lifelong learning, as measured by the summed POLL scores. The difference between freshmen and seniors' average total POLL scores was not statistically significant and was negligible in size.
ContributorsArcuria, Phil (Author) / Thompson, Marilyn (Thesis advisor) / Green, Samuel (Committee member) / Levy, Roy (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2011
Description
It is common in the analysis of data to provide a goodness-of-fit test to assess the performance of a model. In the analysis of contingency tables, goodness-of-fit statistics are frequently employed when modeling social science, educational or psychological data where the interest is often directed at investigating the association among multi-categorical variables. Pearson's chi-squared statistic is well-known in goodness-of-fit testing, but it is sometimes considered to produce an omnibus test as it gives little guidance to the source of poor fit once the null hypothesis is rejected. However, its components can provide powerful directional tests. In this dissertation, orthogonal components are used to develop goodness-of-fit tests for models fit to the counts obtained from the cross-classification of multi-category dependent variables. Ordinal categories are assumed. Orthogonal components defined on marginals are obtained when analyzing multi-dimensional contingency tables through the use of the QR decomposition. A subset of these orthogonal components can be used to construct limited-information tests that allow one to identify the source of lack-of-fit and provide an increase in power compared to Pearson's test. These tests can address the adverse effects presented when data are sparse. The tests rely on the set of first- and second-order marginals jointly, the set of second-order marginals only, and the random forest method, a popular algorithm for modeling large complex data sets. The performance of these tests is compared to the likelihood ratio test as well as to tests based on orthogonal polynomial components. The derived goodness-of-fit tests are evaluated with studies for detecting two- and three-way associations that are not accounted for by a categorical variable factor model with a single latent variable. In addition the tests are used to investigate the case when the model misspecification involves parameter constraints for large and sparse contingency tables. The methodology proposed here is applied to data from the 38th round of the State Survey conducted by the Institute for Public Policy and Michigan State University Social Research (2005) . The results illustrate the use of the proposed techniques in the context of a sparse data set.
ContributorsMilovanovic, Jelena (Author) / Young, Dennis (Thesis advisor) / Reiser, Mark R. (Thesis advisor) / Wilson, Jeffrey (Committee member) / Eubank, Randall (Committee member) / Yang, Yan (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2011
Description
ABSTRACT This study investigated the possibility of item parameter drift (IPD) in a calculus placement examination administered to approximately 3,000 students at a large university in the United States. A single form of the exam was administered continuously for a period of two years, possibly allowing later examinees to have prior knowledge of specific items on the exam. An analysis of IPD was conducted to explore evidence of possible item exposure. Two assumptions concerning items exposure were made: 1) item recall and item exposure are positively correlated, and 2) item exposure results in the items becoming easier over time. Special consideration was given to two contextual item characteristics: 1) item location within the test, specifically items at the beginning and end of the exam, and 2) the use of an associated diagram. The hypotheses stated that these item characteristics would make the items easier to recall and, therefore, more likely to be exposed, resulting in item drift. BILOG-MG 3 was used to calibrate the items and assess for IPD. No evidence was found to support the hypotheses that the items located at the beginning of the test or with an associated diagram drifted as a result of item exposure. Three items among the last ten on the exam drifted significantly and became easier, consistent with item exposure. However, in this study, the possible effects of item exposure could not be separated from the effects of other potential factors such as speededness, curriculum changes, better test preparation on the part of subsequent examinees, or guessing.
ContributorsKrause, Janet (Author) / Levy, Roy (Thesis advisor) / Thompson, Marilyn (Thesis advisor) / Gorin, Joanna (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2012
Description
The Culture-Language Interpretive Matrix (C-LIM) is a new tool hypothesized to help practitioners accurately determine whether students who are administered an IQ test are culturally and linguistically different from the normative comparison group (i.e., different) or culturally and linguistically similar to the normative comparison group and possibly have Specific Learning Disabilities (SLD) or other neurocognitive disabilities (i.e., disordered). Diagnostic utility statistics were used to test the ability of the Wechsler Intelligence Scales for Children-Fourth Edition (WISC-IV) C-LIM to accurately identify students from a referred sample of English language learners (Ells) (n = 86) for whom Spanish was the primary language spoken at home and a sample of students from the WISC-IV normative sample (n = 2,033) as either culturally and linguistically different from the WISC-IV normative sample or culturally and linguistically similar to the WISC-IV normative sample. WISC-IV scores from three paired comparison groups were analyzed using the Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve: (a) Ells with SLD and the WISC-IV normative sample, (b) Ells without SLD and the WISC-IV normative sample, and (c) Ells with SLD and Ells without SLD. Results of the ROC yielded Area Under the Curve (AUC) values that ranged between 0.51 and 0.53 for the comparison between Ells with SLD and the WISC-IV normative sample, AUC values that ranged between 0.48 and 0.53 for the comparison between Ells without SLD and the WISC-IV normative sample, and AUC values that ranged between 0.49 and 0.55 for the comparison between Ells with SLD and Ells without SLD. These values indicate that the C-LIM has low diagnostic accuracy in terms of differentiating between a sample of Ells and the WISC-IV normative sample. Current available evidence does not support use of the C-LIM in applied practice at this time.
ContributorsStyck, Kara M (Author) / Watkins, Marley W. (Thesis advisor) / Levy, Roy (Thesis advisor) / Balles, John (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2012