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Description
This thesis takes the form of a market research report with the goal of analyzing the implications of the United Kingdom (UK) leaving the European Union (EU) (known as “Brexit”) on London’s office commercial real estate market. The ultimate goal of this report is to make a prediction, firmly grounded in quantitative and qualitative research conducted over the past several months, as to the direction of London’s commercial real estate market going forward (post-Brexit). Within the commercial real estate sector, this paper narrows its focus to the office segment of the London market.
Understanding the political landscape is crucial to formulating a reasonable prediction as to the future of the London market. Aside from research reports and articles, our main insights into the political direction of Brexit come from our recordings from meetings in March of 2017 with two high-ranking members of Parliament and one member of the House of Lords—all of whom are members of the Tory Party (the meetings being held under the condition of anonymity). The below analysis will be followed by a discussion of the economics of Brexit, primarily focusing on the economic risks and uncertainties which have emerged after the vote, and which currently exist today. Such risks include the UK losing its financial passporting rights, weakening GDP and currency value, the potential for a reduction in foreign direct investment (FDI), and the potential loss of the service sector in the city of London due to not being able to access the European Single Market.
The report will shift focus to analyzing three competing viewpoints of the direction of the London market based on recordings from interviews of stakeholders in the London real estate market. One being an executive of one of the largest REITs in the UK, another being the Global Head of Real Estate at a top asset management firm, and another being a director at a large property consulting firm. The report includes these differing “sub-theses” in order to try to make sense of the vast market uncertainties post-Brexit as well as to contrast their viewpoints with where the market is currently and with the report’s investment recommendation.
The remainder of the report will consist of the methods used for analyzing market trends including how the data was modeled in order to make the investment recommendation. The report will analyze real estate and market metrics pre-Brexit, immediately after the vote, post-Brexit, and will conclude with future projections encapsulating the investment recommendation.
Understanding the political landscape is crucial to formulating a reasonable prediction as to the future of the London market. Aside from research reports and articles, our main insights into the political direction of Brexit come from our recordings from meetings in March of 2017 with two high-ranking members of Parliament and one member of the House of Lords—all of whom are members of the Tory Party (the meetings being held under the condition of anonymity). The below analysis will be followed by a discussion of the economics of Brexit, primarily focusing on the economic risks and uncertainties which have emerged after the vote, and which currently exist today. Such risks include the UK losing its financial passporting rights, weakening GDP and currency value, the potential for a reduction in foreign direct investment (FDI), and the potential loss of the service sector in the city of London due to not being able to access the European Single Market.
The report will shift focus to analyzing three competing viewpoints of the direction of the London market based on recordings from interviews of stakeholders in the London real estate market. One being an executive of one of the largest REITs in the UK, another being the Global Head of Real Estate at a top asset management firm, and another being a director at a large property consulting firm. The report includes these differing “sub-theses” in order to try to make sense of the vast market uncertainties post-Brexit as well as to contrast their viewpoints with where the market is currently and with the report’s investment recommendation.
The remainder of the report will consist of the methods used for analyzing market trends including how the data was modeled in order to make the investment recommendation. The report will analyze real estate and market metrics pre-Brexit, immediately after the vote, post-Brexit, and will conclude with future projections encapsulating the investment recommendation.
ContributorsHorn, Jonathan (Co-author) / Sidi, Adam (Co-author) / Bonadurer, Werner (Thesis director) / McDaniel, Cara (Committee member) / Department of Finance (Contributor) / School of Politics and Global Studies (Contributor) / Economics Program in CLAS (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2017-12
Description
This paper provides evidence through an event study, portfolio simulation, and regression analysis that insider trading, when appropriately aggregated, has predictive power for abnormal risk-adjusted returns on some country and sector exchange traded funds (ETFs). I examine ETFs because of their broad scope and liquidity. ETF markets are relatively efficient and, thus, the effects I document are unlikely to appear in ETF markets. My evidence that aggregated insider trading predicts abnormal returns in some ETFs suggests that aggregated insider trading is likely to have predictive power for financial assets traded in less efficient markets. My analysis depends on specialized insider trading data covering 88 countries is generously provided by 2iQ.
ContributorsKerker, Mackenzie Alan (Author) / Coles, Jeffrey (Thesis director) / Mcauley, Daniel (Committee member) / Licon, Wendell (Committee member) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor) / Department of Economics (Contributor) / School of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences (Contributor) / Department of Finance (Contributor)
Created2014-05
Description
In order to discover if Company X's current system of local trucking is the most efficient and cost-effective way to move freight between sites in the Western U.S., we will compare the current system to varying alternatives to see if there are potential avenues for Company X to create or implement an improved cost saving freight movement system.
ContributorsPicone, David (Co-author) / Krueger, Brandon (Co-author) / Harrison, Sarah (Co-author) / Way, Noah (Co-author) / Simonson, Mark (Thesis director) / Hertzel, Michael (Committee member) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor) / Department of Supply Chain Management (Contributor) / Department of Finance (Contributor) / Economics Program in CLAS (Contributor) / School of Accountancy (Contributor) / W. P. Carey School of Business (Contributor) / Sandra Day O'Connor College of Law (Contributor)
Created2015-05
Description
This paper examines the Syrian Civil War using seven different civil war settlement theories in order to assess the likelihood of a negotiated settlement ending the conflict. The costs of war, balance of power, domestic political institutions, ethnic identity, divisibility of stakes, veto player, and credible commitment theories were used in a multi-perspective analysis of the Syrian Civil War and the possibility of a peace settlement. It was found that all of the theories except for costs of war and balance of power predict that a negotiated settlement is unlikely to resolve the conflict. Although the Syrian government and the Syrian National Coalition are currently engaged in diplomatic negotiations through the Geneva II conference, both sides are unwilling to compromise on the underlying grievances driving the conflict. This paper ultimately highlights some of the problems inhibiting a negotiated settlement in the Syrian Civil War. These obstacles include: rival ethno-religious identities of combatants, lack of democratic institutions in Syria, indivisibility of stakes in which combatants are fighting for, number of veto player combatant groups active in Syria, and the lack of a credible third party to monitor and enforce a peace settlement.
ContributorsRidout, Scott Jeffries (Author) / Grossman, Gary (Thesis director) / Siroky, David (Committee member) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor) / Economics Program in CLAS (Contributor) / School of Politics and Global Studies (Contributor)
Created2014-05
Description
The purpose of the present study is to examine how the Sales and Operation Plan (S&OP) process can be improved in the manufacturing industry by using a cost model to evaluate changes in the manufacturing forecast in addition to reviewing past financial performance. The additional use of a cost model transitions form using a standard traditional S&OP process to dynamic modeling and scenario analysis that may lead to different decisions being made. The manufacturing company S&OP processes in scope of this project is suspected to not be using a cost model when making financial decisions but rather the traditional S&OP process. They do not have a rolling budget in place, but rather a static budget also known as an Annual Operating Plan.
ContributorsSeiki, Kaila (Author) / Licon, Wendell (Thesis director) / Garverick, Michael (Committee member) / Department of Finance (Contributor) / Department of Information Systems (Contributor, Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2018-12
Description
The purpose of this paper is to study the impact that poison pills have on the value of share prices after the cancellation of a transaction. While various studies have focused on the generic share price impact of poison pills, very few have focused on the impact of poison pills in cancelled transactions. Based on our research and analysis, in cancelled transactions, target firms that have poison pills prior to the transaction and target firms without poison pills generate returns above the announcement date premium and subsequent investment in the S&P 500 when held to the cancellation of the transaction and when held from cancellation to 6 months after the transaction. This analysis can contribute to the argument that holding shares of firms regardless of cancellation risk is preferable to taking profit at announcement date. Additionally, it can contribute to the study of undiscovered pricing impact of poison pills.
ContributorsChotalla, Gurkaran (Co-author) / Amjad, Hamza (Co-author) / Reddy, Samir (Co-author) / Stein, Luke (Thesis director) / Lindsey, Laura (Committee member) / School of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences (Contributor) / Department of Finance (Contributor) / Economics Program in CLAS (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2016-12
Description
Millennial involvement levels in the stock market are startlingly low. But what has caused this disconnect between America's younger generation and the financial sector? Stress from past financial crises, distrust of Wall Street, corporate greed, or a dislike of capitalism could surely all be viable culprits. Through our mutual experiences and research, however, we have found that most millennials aren't cynical anarchists avoiding the stock market in an attempt to fight against the system. Rather, they are individuals who have the desire to learn about investing but are clueless as to where/how to start. We both began investing in the stock market early in our college careers by opening online brokerage accounts and developing investment portfolios based on knowledge we learned within our Finance degrees and through independent research. Word of our involvement in the stock market began to spread in our social circles and people would consistently approach either of us and ask a variety of questions regarding investing. Questions such as: Can you sit down and help me open up an account and pick some stocks? What type of things do you invest in? How do I get started? How much money have you made? (always a favorite). Pre-med students, engineers, business, science, and technology majors alike all showed interest in the stock market. The more and more we talked to people, the more we realized that the problem was not a lack of desire or a lack of intellect. The problem was a lack of logically presented information, and barriers to entry that were far too high. We want to fix that. Investnet will be an online educational platform that will teach anyone the basics of investing, in plain, easy to understand terms. Whether the individual has absolutely zero knowledge of finances, or has some familiarity with investing, Investnet will provide them with the knowledge and confidence necessary to start investing in the stock market (or choose not to, but at least they'll know how).
ContributorsMcKenzie, Connor (Co-author) / Shatila, Jordan (Co-author) / Budolfson, Arthur (Thesis director) / Hoffman, David (Committee member) / School of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences (Contributor) / Department of Finance (Contributor) / W. P. Carey School of Business (Contributor) / Economics Program in CLAS (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2016-05
Description
An integral part of the financial system, the evolutionary history of commercial banking remains largely uncharted and is often grouped into banking development as a whole. Previous research on banking has primarily relied on economic analysis or has placed banking in a larger social context. This work aims to bridge the two by classifying commercial banking growth into four cycles of expansion, application, and decline. Drawing from historical accounts and growth cycle theory, this framework for classification is developed to better synthesize its progress and the fundamental innovations that changed the banking system. Beginning in 1150 with the foundation for deposit banking, the next three cycles of 1500, 1750, and 1933 mark periods of great innovation and a push toward the regulatory environment, technology, and globalization that define modern commercial banking. Paralleling the economic, financial, and political development of the Western World, its evolution is guided by three themes: the increased accumulation and flow of capital, regulation, and market expansion.
ContributorsSinger, Andrea Cayli (Author) / Licon, Wendell (Thesis director) / Hoffmeister, Ron (Committee member) / Brooks, Dan (Committee member) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor) / School of Historical, Philosophical and Religious Studies (Contributor) / W. P. Carey School of Business (Contributor) / Department of Finance (Contributor)
Created2013-05
Description
There is a long standing debate on the various forms of investment in the growing marketplace as to which is best for the individual investor needs. Two similar types of investments are mutual funds and exchange-traded funds (ETF), which are both securities that are made up of a pool funds. They are comparable in concept but have key differences that make this study unique. Mutual funds are much more commonly used and are more prevalent in investment publications. This study addresses the benefits and drawbacks of mutual funds and ETFs and how their structures influence returns over a period of time. The purpose of this study was to take historical data of both mutual funds and ETFs to find their returns and see which, if either, outperformed the other based on several different calculations and performance measures. To improve the validity of this study, we found funds from both the technology and utility sector, for each investment vehicle in order to evaluate different classes of risk. We kept the study consistent and compared technology mutual funds to technology exchange traded funds, and so on with the utility sector. We created four portfolios consisting of around eight to ten high quality funds based on criteria. Results indicated that ETFs outperformed mutual funds in both the utility and technology sectors. In order to adjust for risk, we ran Jensen's measure and found that ETF's still outperformed mutual funds. This is significant because mutual funds are highly regarded in the investment world and often thought of as better than ETFs mainly due to their active management and long term results as they have been around for longer than ETFs. This study proves that investors should be putting more money into ETFs because they yield higher returns over time and cost less in fees, allowing the investor to retain a larger portion of their investment.
ContributorsRietman, Marissa (Co-author) / Melton, Mikayla (Co-author) / Licon, Wendell (Thesis director) / Budolfson, Arthur (Committee member) / W. P. Carey School of Business (Contributor) / School of Accountancy (Contributor) / School of International Letters and Cultures (Contributor) / Department of Finance (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2016-05
Description
This thesis will be exploring the situation of one of the most vulnerable groups during the COVID-19 pandemic, low-income renters. As businesses and whole states were shutdown, jobs and wages were lost and the over 100 million renters in the United States, many of whom spend a significant chunk of their income on their rent, were forced into a precarious situation. <br/><br/>The Federal Rent Moratorium that is currently in effect bars any evictions for missed rent payments, but these are expenses that if left unpaid, are just continuously accruing. These large sums of rent payments are currently scheduled to be dropped on struggling individuals at the end of the recently extended date of June 30th, 2021. As these renters are unable to pay for their housing, landlords lose the revenue streams from their investment properties, and are in turn unable to cover the debt service on the financing they utilized to acquire the property. In turn, financial institutions can then face widespread defaults on these loans.<br/><br/>The rental property market is massive, as roughly 34% of the American population consist of renters. If left unaddressed, this situation has the potential to cause cataclysmal consequences on the economy, including mass homelessness and foreclosures of rental properties and complexes. Everyone, from the tenants to the bankers and beyond, are stakeholders in this dire situation and this paper will seek to explore the issues, desires, and potential solutions applicable to all parties involved. Beginning with the pre-pandemic outlook of the rental housing market, then examining the impact of the coronavirus and the resulting federal actions, to finally explore solutions that may prevent or mitigate this potential disaster.
ContributorsMorris, Michael H (Author) / Sadusky, Brian (Thesis director) / Licon, Wendell (Committee member) / Historical, Philosophical & Religious Studies (Contributor) / Historical, Philosophical & Religious Studies, Sch (Contributor) / Department of Finance (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2021-05