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Description
This thesis takes the form of a market research report with the goal of analyzing the implications of the United Kingdom (UK) leaving the European Union (EU) (known as “Brexit”) on London’s office commercial real estate market. The ultimate goal of this report is to make a prediction, firmly grounded in quantitative and qualitative research conducted over the past several months, as to the direction of London’s commercial real estate market going forward (post-Brexit). Within the commercial real estate sector, this paper narrows its focus to the office segment of the London market.
Understanding the political landscape is crucial to formulating a reasonable prediction as to the future of the London market. Aside from research reports and articles, our main insights into the political direction of Brexit come from our recordings from meetings in March of 2017 with two high-ranking members of Parliament and one member of the House of Lords—all of whom are members of the Tory Party (the meetings being held under the condition of anonymity). The below analysis will be followed by a discussion of the economics of Brexit, primarily focusing on the economic risks and uncertainties which have emerged after the vote, and which currently exist today. Such risks include the UK losing its financial passporting rights, weakening GDP and currency value, the potential for a reduction in foreign direct investment (FDI), and the potential loss of the service sector in the city of London due to not being able to access the European Single Market.
The report will shift focus to analyzing three competing viewpoints of the direction of the London market based on recordings from interviews of stakeholders in the London real estate market. One being an executive of one of the largest REITs in the UK, another being the Global Head of Real Estate at a top asset management firm, and another being a director at a large property consulting firm. The report includes these differing “sub-theses” in order to try to make sense of the vast market uncertainties post-Brexit as well as to contrast their viewpoints with where the market is currently and with the report’s investment recommendation.
The remainder of the report will consist of the methods used for analyzing market trends including how the data was modeled in order to make the investment recommendation. The report will analyze real estate and market metrics pre-Brexit, immediately after the vote, post-Brexit, and will conclude with future projections encapsulating the investment recommendation.
Understanding the political landscape is crucial to formulating a reasonable prediction as to the future of the London market. Aside from research reports and articles, our main insights into the political direction of Brexit come from our recordings from meetings in March of 2017 with two high-ranking members of Parliament and one member of the House of Lords—all of whom are members of the Tory Party (the meetings being held under the condition of anonymity). The below analysis will be followed by a discussion of the economics of Brexit, primarily focusing on the economic risks and uncertainties which have emerged after the vote, and which currently exist today. Such risks include the UK losing its financial passporting rights, weakening GDP and currency value, the potential for a reduction in foreign direct investment (FDI), and the potential loss of the service sector in the city of London due to not being able to access the European Single Market.
The report will shift focus to analyzing three competing viewpoints of the direction of the London market based on recordings from interviews of stakeholders in the London real estate market. One being an executive of one of the largest REITs in the UK, another being the Global Head of Real Estate at a top asset management firm, and another being a director at a large property consulting firm. The report includes these differing “sub-theses” in order to try to make sense of the vast market uncertainties post-Brexit as well as to contrast their viewpoints with where the market is currently and with the report’s investment recommendation.
The remainder of the report will consist of the methods used for analyzing market trends including how the data was modeled in order to make the investment recommendation. The report will analyze real estate and market metrics pre-Brexit, immediately after the vote, post-Brexit, and will conclude with future projections encapsulating the investment recommendation.
ContributorsHorn, Jonathan (Co-author) / Sidi, Adam (Co-author) / Bonadurer, Werner (Thesis director) / McDaniel, Cara (Committee member) / Department of Finance (Contributor) / School of Politics and Global Studies (Contributor) / Economics Program in CLAS (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2017-12
Description
For this thesis, the authors would like to create a hypothetical Private Equity Real Estate Investment firm that focuses on creating value for partners by taking an opportunistic approach to acquiring under-performing urban multi-family properties with large upside potential for investing. The project will focus on both the market analysis and financial modeling associated with investment strategy and transactions. There is a substantial amount of complexity within commercial real estate and this thesis seeks to offer an accurate and comprehensive documentary of the process, while simplifying it for everyday readers. Additionally, there are a significant amount of risk factors associated with investment decisions, so the best practices from the industry documented in this manuscript are valuable tools for successful investing in the future. To gain the most profound and reliable industry knowledge, the authors leveraged the experience of dozens of industry professionals through research and personal interviews. Through careful analysis, the authors were able to ascertain the current economic position in the real estate cycle and to create a plan for future investing. Additionally, they were able to identify and evaluate a specific asset for purchase. As a result, the authors found that multifamily properties are a sound investment for the next two years and that the company should slowly start to shift directions to office and retail in 2018.
ContributorsBacon, David (Co-author) / Soto, Justin (Co-author) / Kashiwagi, Dean (Thesis director) / Kashiwagi, Jacob (Committee member) / Department of Finance (Contributor) / Department of Supply Chain Management (Contributor) / Department of Marketing (Contributor) / W. P. Carey School of Business (Contributor) / School of Accountancy (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2016-05
Description
As the IoT (Internet of Things) market continues to grow, Company X needs to find a way to penetrate the market and establish larger market share. The problem with Company X's current strategy and cost structure lies in the fact that the fastest growing portion of the IoT market is microcontrollers (MCUs). As Company X currently holds its focus in manufacturing microprocessors (MPUs), the current manufacturing strategy is not optimal for entering competitively into the MCU space. Within the MCU space, the companies that are competing the best do not utilize such high level manufacturing processes because these low cost products do not demand them. Given that the MCU market is largely untested by Company X and its products would need to be manufactured at increasingly lower costs, it runs the risk of over producing and holding obsolete inventory that is either scrapped or sold at or below cost. In order to eliminate that risk, we will explore alternative manufacturing strategies for Company X's MCU products specifically, which will allow for a more optimal cost structure and ultimately a more profitable Internet of Things Group (IoTG). The IoT MCU ecosystem does not require the high powered technology Company X is currently manufacturing and therefore, Company X loses large margins due to its unnecessary leading technology. Since cash is king, pursuing a fully external model for MCU design and manufacturing processes will generate the highest NPV for Company X. It also will increase Company X's market share, which is extremely important given that every tech company in the world is trying to get its hands into the IoT market. It is possible that in ten to thirty years down the road, Company X can manufacture enough units to keep its products in-house, but this is not feasible in the foreseeable future. For now, Company X should focus on the cost market of MCUs by driving its prices down while maintaining low costs due to the variables of COGS and R&D given in our fully external strategy.
ContributorsKadi, Bengimen (Co-author) / Peterson, Tyler (Co-author) / Langmack, Haley (Co-author) / Quintana, Vince (Co-author) / Simonson, Mark (Thesis director) / Hertzel, Michael (Committee member) / Department of Supply Chain Management (Contributor) / Department of Finance (Contributor) / Department of Information Systems (Contributor) / Department of Marketing (Contributor) / School of Accountancy (Contributor) / W. P. Carey School of Business (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2016-05
Description
In order to discover if Company X's current system of local trucking is the most efficient and cost-effective way to move freight between sites in the Western U.S., we will compare the current system to varying alternatives to see if there are potential avenues for Company X to create or implement an improved cost saving freight movement system.
ContributorsPicone, David (Co-author) / Krueger, Brandon (Co-author) / Harrison, Sarah (Co-author) / Way, Noah (Co-author) / Simonson, Mark (Thesis director) / Hertzel, Michael (Committee member) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor) / Department of Supply Chain Management (Contributor) / Department of Finance (Contributor) / Economics Program in CLAS (Contributor) / School of Accountancy (Contributor) / W. P. Carey School of Business (Contributor) / Sandra Day O'Connor College of Law (Contributor)
Created2015-05
Description
Dr. Dean Kashiwagi created a new thinking paradigm, Information Measurement Theory (IMT), which utilizes the understanding of natural laws to help individuals minimize decision-making and risk, which leads to reduced stress. In this new paradigm, any given situation can only have one unique outcome. The more information an individual has for the given situation, the better they can predict the outcome. Using IMT can help correctly "predict the future" of any situation if given enough of the correct information. A prime example of using IMT would be: to correctly predict what a young woman will be like when she's older, simply look at the young woman's mother. In essence, if you can't fall in love with the mother, don't marry the young woman. The researchers are utilizing the concept of IMT and extrapolating it to the financial investing world. They researched different financial investing strategies and were able to come to the conclusion that a strategy utilizing IMT would yield the highest results for investors while minimizing stress. Investors using deductive logic to invest received, on average, 1300% more returns than investors who did not over a 25-year period. Where other investors made many decisions and were constantly stressed with the tribulations of the market, the investors utilizing IMT made one decision and made much more than other investors. The research confirms the stock market will continue to increase over time by looking at the history of the stock market from a birds-eye view. Throughout the existence of the stock market, there have been highs and lows, but at the end of the day, the market continues to break through new ceilings. Investing in the stock market can be a dark and scary place for the blind investor. Using the concept of IMT can eliminate that blindfold to reduce stress on investors while earning the highest financial return potential. Using the basis of IMT, the researchers predict the market will continue to increase in the future; in conclusion, the best investment strategy is to invest in blue chip stocks that have a history of past success, in order to capture secure growth with minimal risk and stress.
ContributorsBerns, Ryan (Co-author) / Ybanez, Julian (Co-author) / Kashiwagi, Dean (Thesis director) / Kashiwagi, Jacob (Committee member) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor) / Department of Finance (Contributor) / Department of Marketing (Contributor) / W. P. Carey School of Business (Contributor)
Created2015-05
Description
This paper examines the Syrian Civil War using seven different civil war settlement theories in order to assess the likelihood of a negotiated settlement ending the conflict. The costs of war, balance of power, domestic political institutions, ethnic identity, divisibility of stakes, veto player, and credible commitment theories were used in a multi-perspective analysis of the Syrian Civil War and the possibility of a peace settlement. It was found that all of the theories except for costs of war and balance of power predict that a negotiated settlement is unlikely to resolve the conflict. Although the Syrian government and the Syrian National Coalition are currently engaged in diplomatic negotiations through the Geneva II conference, both sides are unwilling to compromise on the underlying grievances driving the conflict. This paper ultimately highlights some of the problems inhibiting a negotiated settlement in the Syrian Civil War. These obstacles include: rival ethno-religious identities of combatants, lack of democratic institutions in Syria, indivisibility of stakes in which combatants are fighting for, number of veto player combatant groups active in Syria, and the lack of a credible third party to monitor and enforce a peace settlement.
ContributorsRidout, Scott Jeffries (Author) / Grossman, Gary (Thesis director) / Siroky, David (Committee member) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor) / Economics Program in CLAS (Contributor) / School of Politics and Global Studies (Contributor)
Created2014-05
Description
The landscape of professional sporting venues within the United States is changing. From 1990-2018, within the four main American professional sports leagues, 20 new NHL arenas, 24 new NBA arenas, 22 new NFL stadiums, and 26 new MLB stadiums were built. As the industry morphs, a handful of new initiatives are being worked into the construct of these venues including increased commercial areas for shopping and restaurants and sharing of the venues between two organizations in an attempt to increase the overall utilization of the spaces. Additionally, in Detroit, San Francisco and Atlanta, where new stadiums and arenas were just recently introduced, the municipalities are using the venues to catalyze further growth and development within the city. However, these trends, while innovative, are tethered to high prices.
This thesis seeks to analyze the changes in how current stadiums are being funded, the public’s reaction to and perception of those financing plans and what the future might hold. Research showed that tax dollars are increasingly unpopular and teams are moving away from using public money to fund sports venues. Gathered for this report, survey data of 815 Arizona State University students supported anecdotal evidence that people within a community are relatively unhappy with the idea of their money being used to partially subsidize wealthy sports organizations’ infrastructure. Altogether, recent evidence suggests that multi-use facilities funded in majority by private wealth are more popular and generate greater economic impact for the municipality than earlier in history, when heavily subsidized venues allowed teams to take advantage of local government and created fan mistrust.
This thesis seeks to analyze the changes in how current stadiums are being funded, the public’s reaction to and perception of those financing plans and what the future might hold. Research showed that tax dollars are increasingly unpopular and teams are moving away from using public money to fund sports venues. Gathered for this report, survey data of 815 Arizona State University students supported anecdotal evidence that people within a community are relatively unhappy with the idea of their money being used to partially subsidize wealthy sports organizations’ infrastructure. Altogether, recent evidence suggests that multi-use facilities funded in majority by private wealth are more popular and generate greater economic impact for the municipality than earlier in history, when heavily subsidized venues allowed teams to take advantage of local government and created fan mistrust.
ContributorsKleen, Brendon (Co-author) / Cwiakala, Alec (Co-author) / Eaton, John (Thesis director) / McIntosh, Daniel (Committee member) / Walter Cronkite School of Journalism & Mass Comm (Contributor, Contributor) / Department of Marketing (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2019-05
Description
The purpose of this paper is to study the impact that poison pills have on the value of share prices after the cancellation of a transaction. While various studies have focused on the generic share price impact of poison pills, very few have focused on the impact of poison pills in cancelled transactions. Based on our research and analysis, in cancelled transactions, target firms that have poison pills prior to the transaction and target firms without poison pills generate returns above the announcement date premium and subsequent investment in the S&P 500 when held to the cancellation of the transaction and when held from cancellation to 6 months after the transaction. This analysis can contribute to the argument that holding shares of firms regardless of cancellation risk is preferable to taking profit at announcement date. Additionally, it can contribute to the study of undiscovered pricing impact of poison pills.
ContributorsChotalla, Gurkaran (Co-author) / Amjad, Hamza (Co-author) / Reddy, Samir (Co-author) / Stein, Luke (Thesis director) / Lindsey, Laura (Committee member) / School of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences (Contributor) / Department of Finance (Contributor) / Economics Program in CLAS (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2016-12
Description
Millennial involvement levels in the stock market are startlingly low. But what has caused this disconnect between America's younger generation and the financial sector? Stress from past financial crises, distrust of Wall Street, corporate greed, or a dislike of capitalism could surely all be viable culprits. Through our mutual experiences and research, however, we have found that most millennials aren't cynical anarchists avoiding the stock market in an attempt to fight against the system. Rather, they are individuals who have the desire to learn about investing but are clueless as to where/how to start. We both began investing in the stock market early in our college careers by opening online brokerage accounts and developing investment portfolios based on knowledge we learned within our Finance degrees and through independent research. Word of our involvement in the stock market began to spread in our social circles and people would consistently approach either of us and ask a variety of questions regarding investing. Questions such as: Can you sit down and help me open up an account and pick some stocks? What type of things do you invest in? How do I get started? How much money have you made? (always a favorite). Pre-med students, engineers, business, science, and technology majors alike all showed interest in the stock market. The more and more we talked to people, the more we realized that the problem was not a lack of desire or a lack of intellect. The problem was a lack of logically presented information, and barriers to entry that were far too high. We want to fix that. Investnet will be an online educational platform that will teach anyone the basics of investing, in plain, easy to understand terms. Whether the individual has absolutely zero knowledge of finances, or has some familiarity with investing, Investnet will provide them with the knowledge and confidence necessary to start investing in the stock market (or choose not to, but at least they'll know how).
ContributorsMcKenzie, Connor (Co-author) / Shatila, Jordan (Co-author) / Budolfson, Arthur (Thesis director) / Hoffman, David (Committee member) / School of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences (Contributor) / Department of Finance (Contributor) / W. P. Carey School of Business (Contributor) / Economics Program in CLAS (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2016-05
Description
Semiconductor Manufacturer (Semi) wants to improve the valuation of the extended warranties they purchase for their metrology tools and determine whether or not extended warranties are worth the financial investment. Historically, suppliers have commonly overvalued warranties. For example, there is a 50%-60% profit margin on warranties in the consumer electronics industry. The costs incurred from purchasing extended warranties contribute to millions of dollars each year in tool ownership for Semi. By creating an extended warranty valuation model, our goal is to reduce the total cost of metrology tool ownership. A different perspective on the valuation of extended warranties will lead to an increased bottom line for Semi. Our valuation model will assist in determining warranty purchase pricing and appropriate service levels of maintenance personnel associated with the extended warranties. The model's objective is to compare the statistical expected total cost of buying tool parts on an "as needed" basis with the quoted price of an extended warranty. It will assess the strict financial value of either buying or not buying the extended warranty. Using actual tool part consumption data, the model can quickly evaluate the value of a supplier's warranty offer. In addition, the results from the model can be used as a negotiation tool with the suppliers. However the model will have its limitations. For example, the model will not be able to evaluate whether a metrology supplier relies on extended warranty revenues to fund research and development or whether a supplier has the financial health to remain in business with the loss of extended warranty related revenues. A shift in extended warranty purchasing by Semi could have a profound impact on the number of competitive suppliers in the future, and Semi's managers should take this into account when altering their extended warranty purchasing strategy. Our model can be utilized for three different functions: negotiating with suppliers, simplifying the decision to buy or not buy an extended warranty and influencing managers' purchasing strategies. Changing the service level costs of labor can impact Semi's decision to buy or not the extended warranty due to its effect on the probability of the warranty being a good or bad deal. In addition, the model output can significantly influence a manager's purchasing strategy within the organization by breaking down the cost savings associated with the metrology tools' part failures. In order to improve the accuracy and effectiveness of the financial model, we recommend that Semi collect and assemble the model input data in a different manner. Although it is possible Semi does collect more detailed data, the input data we received needed to be more comprehensive; it should include a list of tool parts with their respective failure dates, along with which supplier is responsible for which tool. Furthermore, Semi should develop a supplier scorecard to account for financial health, which can be factored into the model. This will result in a more precise evaluation on whether or not an extended warranty is worth the financial investment.
ContributorsGordon, Audrey Elizabeth (Co-author) / Barkley, Erin (Co-author) / Brady, Max Jordan (Co-author) / Lin, Jessica (Co-author) / Shieffield, Ethan (Co-author) / Hertzel, Michael (Thesis director) / Simonson, Mark (Committee member) / Schembri, Christopher (Committee member) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor) / Department of Finance (Contributor) / Department of Marketing (Contributor)
Created2013-05