Matching Items (25)
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- All Subjects: Finance
- All Subjects: Mathematical Modeling
- Creators: School of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences
- Member of: Barrett, The Honors College Thesis/Creative Project Collection
- Resource Type: Text
Description
Mortality of 1918 influenza virus was high, partly due to bacteria coinfections. We characterize pandemic mortality in Arizona, which had high prevalence of tuberculosis. We applied regressions to over 35,000 data points to estimate the basic reproduction number and excess mortality. Age-specific mortality curves show elevated mortality for all age groups, especially the young, and senior sparing effects. The low value for reproduction number indicates that transmissibility was moderately low.
ContributorsJenner, Melinda Eva (Author) / Chowell-Puente, Gerardo (Thesis director) / Kostelich, Eric (Committee member) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor) / School of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences (Contributor) / School of Life Sciences (Contributor)
Created2015-05
Description
The intervertebral disc goes through degenerative changes with age, which leads to disc thinning, bulging, or herniation. Spinal fusion treatments are ineffective as they cause quicker degeneration of adjacent discs and fail in nearly 20% of cases, so researchers have turned to tissue-engineering biocompatible intervertebral discs for transplantation. However novel and effective as this may seem, these transplanted discs still show evidence of degeneration after just 5 years. I hypothesize that these discs are degenerating due to a blockage of the cartilaginous endplates post-transplantation that is hindering nutrient transport through the intervertebral disc. In order to test this hypothesis, I developed a mathematical model of nutrient transport through the intervertebral disc in one diurnal daily loading cycle. This model was used to simulate open endplates and blocked endplates and then compare differences in nutrient concentration and nutrient transport to the center of the disc. Results from the math model simulations were then compared to in vitro experimental data collected in lab to verify the findings on a physiological level. Results showed significant differences, both in vitro and in the model, between nutrient transport in open endplates vs blocked endplates, lending support to the original hypothesis. This study only presents preliminary results, but could hold the key to preventing future disc degeneration post-transplantation.
ContributorsMunter, Bryce Taylor (Author) / Santello, Marco (Thesis director) / Caplan, Michael (Committee member) / Giers, Morgan (Committee member) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor) / Harrington Bioengineering Program (Contributor)
Created2015-05
Description
The purpose of our research was to develop recommendations and/or strategies for Company A's data center group in the context of the server CPU chip industry. We used data collected from the International Data Corporation (IDC) that was provided by our team coaches, and data that is accessible on the internet. As the server CPU industry expands and transitions to cloud computing, Company A's Data Center Group will need to expand their server CPU chip product mix to meet new demands of the cloud industry and to maintain high market share. Company A boasts leading performance with their x86 server chips and 95% market segment share. The cloud industry is dominated by seven companies Company A calls "The Super 7." These seven companies include: Amazon, Google, Microsoft, Facebook, Alibaba, Tencent, and Baidu. In the long run, the growing market share of the Super 7 could give them substantial buying power over Company A, which could lead to discounts and margin compression for Company A's main growth engine. Additionally, in the long-run, the substantial growth of the Super 7 could fuel the development of their own design teams and work towards making their own server chips internally, which would be detrimental to Company A's data center revenue. We first researched the server industry and key terminology relevant to our project. We narrowed our scope by focusing most on the cloud computing aspect of the server industry. We then researched what Company A has already been doing in the context of cloud computing and what they are currently doing to address the problem. Next, using our market analysis, we identified key areas we think Company A's data center group should focus on. Using the information available to us, we developed our strategies and recommendations that we think will help Company A's Data Center Group position themselves well in an extremely fast growing cloud computing industry.
ContributorsJurgenson, Alex (Co-author) / Nguyen, Duy (Co-author) / Kolder, Sean (Co-author) / Wang, Chenxi (Co-author) / Simonson, Mark (Thesis director) / Hertzel, Michael (Committee member) / Department of Finance (Contributor) / Department of Management (Contributor) / Department of Information Systems (Contributor) / School of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences (Contributor) / School of Accountancy (Contributor) / WPC Graduate Programs (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2016-05
Description
This paper explores the history of sovereign debt default in developing economies and attempts to highlight the mistakes and accomplishments toward achieving debt sustainability. In the past century, developing economies have received considerable investment due to higher returns and a degree of disregard for the risks accompanying these investments. As the former Citibank chairman, Walter Wriston articulated, "Countries don't go bust" (This Time is Different, 51). Still, unexpected negative externalities have shattered this idea as the majority of developing economies follow a cyclical pattern of default. As coined by Reinhart and Rogoff, sovereign governments that fall into this continuous cycle have become known as serial defaulters. Most developed markets have not defaulted since World War II, thus escaping this persistent trap. Still, there have been developing economies that have been able to transition out of serial defaulting. These economies are able to leverage debt to compound growth without incurring the protracted consequences of a default. Although the cases are few, we argue that developing markets such as Chile, Mexico, Russia, and Uruguay have been able to escape this vicious cycle. Thus, our research indicates that collaborative debt restructurings coupled with long term economic policies are imperative to transitioning out of debt intolerance and into a sustainable debt position. Successful economies are able to leverage debt to create strong foundational growth rather than gambling with debt in the hopes of achieving rapid catch- up growth.
ContributorsPitt, Ryan (Co-author) / Martinez, Nick (Co-author) / Choueiri, Robert (Co-author) / Goegan, Brian (Thesis director) / Silverman, Daniel (Committee member) / Department of Economics (Contributor) / Department of Information Systems (Contributor) / School of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences (Contributor) / School of Politics and Global Studies (Contributor) / W. P. Carey School of Business (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2015-12
Description
Glioblastoma Multiforme (GBM) is an aggressive and deadly form of brain cancer with a median survival time of about a year with treatment. Due to the aggressive nature of these tumors and the tendency of gliomas to follow white matter tracks in the brain, each tumor mass has a unique growth pattern. Consequently it is difficult for neurosurgeons to anticipate where the tumor will spread in the brain, making treatment planning difficult. Archival patient data including MRI scans depicting the progress of tumors have been helpful in developing a model to predict Glioblastoma proliferation, but limited scans per patient make the tumor growth rate difficult to determine. Furthermore, patient treatment between scan points can significantly compound the challenge of accurately predicting the tumor growth. A partnership with Barrow Neurological Institute has allowed murine studies to be conducted in order to closely observe tumor growth and potentially improve the current model to more closely resemble intermittent stages of GBM growth without treatment effects.
ContributorsSnyder, Lena Haley (Author) / Kostelich, Eric (Thesis director) / Frakes, David (Committee member) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor) / School of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences (Contributor) / Harrington Bioengineering Program (Contributor)
Created2014-05
Description
This paper provides evidence through an event study, portfolio simulation, and regression analysis that insider trading, when appropriately aggregated, has predictive power for abnormal risk-adjusted returns on some country and sector exchange traded funds (ETFs). I examine ETFs because of their broad scope and liquidity. ETF markets are relatively efficient and, thus, the effects I document are unlikely to appear in ETF markets. My evidence that aggregated insider trading predicts abnormal returns in some ETFs suggests that aggregated insider trading is likely to have predictive power for financial assets traded in less efficient markets. My analysis depends on specialized insider trading data covering 88 countries is generously provided by 2iQ.
ContributorsKerker, Mackenzie Alan (Author) / Coles, Jeffrey (Thesis director) / Mcauley, Daniel (Committee member) / Licon, Wendell (Committee member) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor) / Department of Economics (Contributor) / School of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences (Contributor) / Department of Finance (Contributor)
Created2014-05
Description
This paper investigates whether measures of investor sentiment can be used to predict future total returns of the S&P 500 index. Rolling regressions and other statistical techniques are used to determine which indicators contain the most predictive information and which time horizons' returns are "easiest" to predict in a three year data set. The five "most predictive" indicators are used to predict 180 calendar day future returns of the market and simulated investment of hypothetical accounts is conducted in an independent six year data set based on the rolling regression future return predictions. Some indicators, most notably the VIX index, appear to contain predictive information which led to out-performance of the accounts that invested based on the rolling regression model's predictions.
ContributorsDundas, Matthew William (Author) / Boggess, May (Thesis director) / Budolfson, Arthur (Committee member) / Hedegaard, Esben (Committee member) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor) / School of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences (Contributor) / Department of Finance (Contributor)
Created2013-12
Description
A Guide to Financial Mathematics is a comprehensive and easy-to-use study guide for students studying for the one of the first actuarial exams, Exam FM. While there are many resources available to students to study for these exams, this study is free to the students and offers an approach to the material similar to that of which is presented in class at ASU. The guide is available to students and professors in the new Actuarial Science degree program offered by ASU. There are twelve chapters, including financial calculator tips, detailed notes, examples, and practice exercises. Included at the end of the guide is a list of referenced material.
ContributorsDougher, Caroline Marie (Author) / Milovanovic, Jelena (Thesis director) / Boggess, May (Committee member) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor) / Department of Information Systems (Contributor) / School of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences (Contributor)
Created2015-05
Description
This thesis attempts to explain Everettian quantum mechanics from the ground up, such that those with little to no experience in quantum physics can understand it. First, we introduce the history of quantum theory, and some concepts that make up the framework of quantum physics. Through these concepts, we reveal why interpretations are necessary to map the quantum world onto our classical world. We then introduce the Copenhagen interpretation, and how many-worlds differs from it. From there, we dive into the concepts of entanglement and decoherence, explaining how worlds branch in an Everettian universe, and how an Everettian universe can appear as our classical observed world. From there, we attempt to answer common questions about many-worlds and discuss whether there are philosophical ramifications to believing such a theory. Finally, we look at whether the many-worlds interpretation can be proven, and why one might choose to believe it.
ContributorsSecrest, Micah (Author) / Foy, Joseph (Thesis director) / Hines, Taylor (Committee member) / Computer Science and Engineering Program (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2021-05
Description
The purpose of this paper is to provide an analysis of entanglement and the particular problems it poses for some physicists. In addition to looking at the history of entanglement and non-locality, this paper will use the Bell Test as a means for demonstrating how entanglement works, which measures the behavior of electrons whose combined internal angular momentum is zero. This paper will go over Dr. Bell's famous inequality, which shows why the process of entanglement cannot be explained by traditional means of local processes. Entanglement will be viewed initially through the Copenhagen Interpretation, but this paper will also look at two particular models of quantum mechanics, de-Broglie Bohm theory and Everett's Many-Worlds Interpretation, and observe how they explain the behavior of spin and entangled particles compared to the Copenhagen Interpretation.
ContributorsWood, Keaten Lawrence (Author) / Foy, Joseph (Thesis director) / Hines, Taylor (Committee member) / Department of Physics (Contributor) / School of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2021-05