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- Genre: Academic theses
- Creators: Mehra, Rajnish
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Description
Merton (1987) predicts that idiosyncratic risk can be priced. I develop a simple equilibrium model of capital markets with information costs in which the idiosyncratic risk premium depends on the average level of idiosyncratic volatility. This dependence suggests that the idiosyncratic risk premium varies over time. I find that in U.S. markets, the covariance between stock-level idiosyncratic volatility and the idiosyncratic risk premium explains future stock returns. Stocks in the highest quintile of the covariance between the volatility and risk premium earn an average 3-factor alpha of 70 bps per month higher than those in the lowest quintile.
ContributorsXie, Daruo (Author) / Wahal, Sunil (Thesis advisor) / Mehra, Rajnish (Thesis advisor) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2015
Description
This paper examines dealers' inventory holding periods and the associated price markups on corporate bonds from 2003 to 2010. Changes in these measures explain a large part of the time series variation in aggregate corporate bond prices. In the cross-section, holding periods and markups overshadow extant liquidity measures and have significant explanatory power for individual bond prices. Both measures shed light on the credit spread puzzle: changes in credit spread are positively correlated with changes in holding periods and markups, and a large portion of credit spread changes is explained by them. The economic effects of holding periods and markups are particularly sharp during crisis periods.
ContributorsQian, Zhiyi (Author) / Wahal, Sunil (Thesis advisor) / Bharath, Sreedhar (Committee member) / Coles, Jeffrey (Committee member) / Mehra, Rajnish (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2012
Description
This dissertation consists of two essays on corporate policy. The first chapter analyzes whether being labeled a “growth” firm or a “value” firm affects the firm’s dividend policy. I focus on the dividend policy because of its discretionary nature and the link to investor demand. To address endogeneity concerns, I use regression discontinuity design around the threshold to assign firms to each category. The results show that “value” firms have a significantly higher dividend payout - about four percentage points - than growth firms. This approach establishes a causal link between firm “growth/value” labels and dividend policy.
The second chapter develops investment policy model which associated with du- ration of cash flow. Firms are doing their business by operating a portfolio of projects that have various duration, and the duration of the project portfolio generates dif- ferent duration of cash flow stream. By assuming the duration of cash flow as a firm specific characteristic, this paper analyzes how the duration of cash flow affects firms’ investment decision. I develop a model of investment, external finance, and savings to characterize how firms’ decision is affected by the duration of cash flow. Firms maximize total value of cash flow, while they have to maintain their solvency by paying a fixed cost for the operation. I empirically confirm the positive correlation between duration of cash flow and investment with theoretical support. Financial constraint suffocates the firm when they face solvency issue, so that model with financial constraint shows that the correlation between duration of cash flow and investment is stronger than low financial constraint case.
The second chapter develops investment policy model which associated with du- ration of cash flow. Firms are doing their business by operating a portfolio of projects that have various duration, and the duration of the project portfolio generates dif- ferent duration of cash flow stream. By assuming the duration of cash flow as a firm specific characteristic, this paper analyzes how the duration of cash flow affects firms’ investment decision. I develop a model of investment, external finance, and savings to characterize how firms’ decision is affected by the duration of cash flow. Firms maximize total value of cash flow, while they have to maintain their solvency by paying a fixed cost for the operation. I empirically confirm the positive correlation between duration of cash flow and investment with theoretical support. Financial constraint suffocates the firm when they face solvency issue, so that model with financial constraint shows that the correlation between duration of cash flow and investment is stronger than low financial constraint case.
ContributorsLee, Tae Eui (Author) / Mehra, Rajnish (Thesis advisor) / Tserlukevich, Yuri (Thesis advisor) / Custodio, Claudia (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2015
Description
This dissertation is a collection of three essays relating household financial obligations to asset prices. Financial obligations include both debt payments and other financial commitments.
In the first essay, I investigate how household financial obligations affect the equity premium. I modify the standard Mehra-Prescott (1985) consumption-based asset pricing model to resolve the equity risk premium puzzle. I focus on two channels: the preference channel and the borrowing constraints channel. Under reasonable parameterizations, my model generates equity risk premiums similar in magnitudes to those observed in U.S. data. Furthermore, I show that relaxing the borrowing constraint shrinks the equity risk premium.
In the Second essay, I test the predictability of excess market returns using the household financial obligations ratio. I show that deviations in the household financial obligations ratio from its long-run mean is a better forecaster of future market returns than alternative prediction variables. The results remain significant using either quarterly or annual data and are robust to out-of-sample tests.
In the third essay, I investigate whether the risk associated with household financial obligations is an economy-wide risk with the potential to explain fluctuations in the cross-section of stock returns. The multifactor model I propose, is a modification of the capital asset pricing model that includes the financial obligations ratio as a ``conditioning down" variable. The key finding is that there is an aggregate hedging demand for securities that pay off in periods characterized by higher levels of financial obligations ratios. The consistent pricing of financial obligations risk with a negative risk premium suggests that the financial obligations ratio acts as a state variable.
In the first essay, I investigate how household financial obligations affect the equity premium. I modify the standard Mehra-Prescott (1985) consumption-based asset pricing model to resolve the equity risk premium puzzle. I focus on two channels: the preference channel and the borrowing constraints channel. Under reasonable parameterizations, my model generates equity risk premiums similar in magnitudes to those observed in U.S. data. Furthermore, I show that relaxing the borrowing constraint shrinks the equity risk premium.
In the Second essay, I test the predictability of excess market returns using the household financial obligations ratio. I show that deviations in the household financial obligations ratio from its long-run mean is a better forecaster of future market returns than alternative prediction variables. The results remain significant using either quarterly or annual data and are robust to out-of-sample tests.
In the third essay, I investigate whether the risk associated with household financial obligations is an economy-wide risk with the potential to explain fluctuations in the cross-section of stock returns. The multifactor model I propose, is a modification of the capital asset pricing model that includes the financial obligations ratio as a ``conditioning down" variable. The key finding is that there is an aggregate hedging demand for securities that pay off in periods characterized by higher levels of financial obligations ratios. The consistent pricing of financial obligations risk with a negative risk premium suggests that the financial obligations ratio acts as a state variable.
ContributorsJahangiry, Pedram (Author) / Mehra, Rajnish (Thesis advisor) / Wahal, Sunil (Committee member) / Reffett, Kevin (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2017
Description区块链技术应用（DApp）最早出现在数字货币交易上，也有部分DApp涉及游戏、音乐、教育、出行等场景，但是由于前几年DApp还属于新生事物，多数社会大众对其了解程度不高，加之多数DApp开发和优化的水平有限，用户体验较差，因此并没有良好的市场表现。
尽管如此， 2017年11月一款叫CryptoKitties的区块链游戏正式上线，并且在短时间之内引爆了整个区块链，游戏交易量在1个月内暴涨至1.7万。随后风险资本不断进入区块链行业，并且催生出一大批区块链DApp出来，涉及的应用场景进一步拓展到游戏、赌博、社交、金融、市场、保险、健康等领域。如何设计一套有效的治理机制，从而实现用户留存高、项目前景好，成为多数区块链DApp最为关注的问题。
本文选择CryptoKitties、Mycryptohero、Steemit和NeoWorld这四款区块链DApp作为案例研究对象，通过归纳总结发现这四款DApp都将游戏性、通证经济、社群生态和网络效应作为共同的治理方式。基于这四方面，本文对四款DApp的异同进行了跨案例比较，发现NeoWorld要比其他三款DApp在治理手段上更加丰富和合理。最后，利用136份NeoWorld玩家调查问卷数据，对游戏性、通证经济、社群生态和网络效应对其治理绩效的影响进行了实证检验，结果发现除了社群生态之外，其他三个因素都能提升NeoWorld的治理绩效。
本研究的最大创新是选择在区块链场景应用中具有代表性的4个DApp项目作为案例研究对象，通过归纳总结发现各自在治理手段上的共同之处（影响因素），并根据问卷调查数据对不同影响因素对特定Dapp治理绩效的影响程度进行实证检验，丰富了平台治理相关研究成果，也为社会各界深化认识DApp治理方式和成效，推动DApp行业生态健康有序发展提供参考和借鉴。
关键词：通证经济；社群生态；网络效应；跨案例研究；回归分析
尽管如此， 2017年11月一款叫CryptoKitties的区块链游戏正式上线，并且在短时间之内引爆了整个区块链，游戏交易量在1个月内暴涨至1.7万。随后风险资本不断进入区块链行业，并且催生出一大批区块链DApp出来，涉及的应用场景进一步拓展到游戏、赌博、社交、金融、市场、保险、健康等领域。如何设计一套有效的治理机制，从而实现用户留存高、项目前景好，成为多数区块链DApp最为关注的问题。
本文选择CryptoKitties、Mycryptohero、Steemit和NeoWorld这四款区块链DApp作为案例研究对象，通过归纳总结发现这四款DApp都将游戏性、通证经济、社群生态和网络效应作为共同的治理方式。基于这四方面，本文对四款DApp的异同进行了跨案例比较，发现NeoWorld要比其他三款DApp在治理手段上更加丰富和合理。最后，利用136份NeoWorld玩家调查问卷数据，对游戏性、通证经济、社群生态和网络效应对其治理绩效的影响进行了实证检验，结果发现除了社群生态之外，其他三个因素都能提升NeoWorld的治理绩效。
本研究的最大创新是选择在区块链场景应用中具有代表性的4个DApp项目作为案例研究对象，通过归纳总结发现各自在治理手段上的共同之处（影响因素），并根据问卷调查数据对不同影响因素对特定Dapp治理绩效的影响程度进行实证检验，丰富了平台治理相关研究成果，也为社会各界深化认识DApp治理方式和成效，推动DApp行业生态健康有序发展提供参考和借鉴。
关键词：通证经济；社群生态；网络效应；跨案例研究；回归分析
ContributorsHe, Xin (Author) / Shao, Benjamin (Thesis advisor) / Hu, Jie (Thesis advisor) / Zheng, Zhiqiang (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2020
Description
This dissertation consists of two essays related to dynamic debt contracting and financial economics. The first chapter studies key determinants of inclusion of a financial covenant in corporate loans from theoretical and empirical angles. Using a novel manually collected loan dataset of small to medium-sized publicly-listed U.S. firms, I find that firms that issue loans without financial covenants tend to have (i) lower accounting quality, (ii) lower assets, and (iii) are experiencing faster growth in profitability relative to firms that issue loans with financial covenants. I build a theoretical model of project financing in which there is noisy public information about the project’s profitability, and the lender can privately monitor to improve the information quality. I show that if the signal precision without monitoring is sufficiently low (high), the equilibrium contract does not include (includes) a covenant. Covenant inclusion plays a key role in providing incentives to the lender to monitor. I show that the lender monitors less often relative to the first best. Insufficient monitoring leads to “excessive risk-taking,” namely, bad quality firms continuing with the project too often. Relatedly, I also show that covenants are used less often in equilibrium relative to the first best. The second chapter examines equilibrium consequences of litigation by holdout creditors in sovereign debt renegotiation. I show that given a sufficiently high probability of winning the litigation case against the borrowing country and/or a high enough defaulted sovereign debt, the presence of the holdout creditors increases the expected debt recovery rate, which makes the default option less attractive, and decreases the country’s default probability and the interest rate on the country’s debt. The country responds by borrowing more but defaults less often along the equilibrium path as it wants to avoid default and facing holdout creditors. Having a non-zero probability of successful litigation is welfare improving for the country as it sustains higher debt and defaults less frequently.
ContributorsKim, Yong (Author) / Kovrijnykh, Natalia (Thesis advisor) / Mehra, Rajnish (Committee member) / Tserlukevich, Yuri (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2021
Description随着经济和社会的进步，企业不仅要以盈利为目标，也为利益相关者和生态环境负责并承担相应的社会责任。社会公众也日渐对企业社会责任问题加以重视，伴随着社会责任这一理念的深入，监管部门制定并出台了一系列与企业社会责任信息披露有关的政策和法规，用以规范和引导企业社会责任信息的披露工作。本文以有效市场理论、信息不对称理论和利益相关者理论为基础，将2010-2018年香港证券交易所上市公司为作为研究对象，运用实证研究的方法，将企业社会责任融入股票崩盘风险的研究视角。本文结合理论演绎和实证检验的方法，突破已有文献以收益框架为研究视角的限制，从金融资本市场的角度出发研究企业社会责任的崩盘效应，系统的探索了企业社会责任影响股票崩盘风险的效应及其影响因素。研究结果显示，对比未披露企业社会责任的公司而言，披露企业社会责任相关信息的公司，未来股价崩盘风险越小。基于香港股市主要以机构投资者为主，进一步考察了社会责任信息披露和机构投资者对股价未来崩盘风险的交互作用，研究发现在机构持股比例越低的公司中，企业社会责任信息披露对未来崩盘效应的抑制作用越明显。此外，本文以独立董事占董事会人员比例作为企业治理因素，探索了社会责任信息披露和董事会独立性对股价崩盘风险的交互作用，研究发现企业董事独立性越强，社会责任信息披露对股票崩盘风险的抑制作用更为显著。最后，相对于非国有企业而言，国有企业性质削弱了企业社会责任信息披露对未来崩盘效应的抑制作用。
ContributorsHe, Jie (Author) / Zhu, David, H. (Thesis advisor) / Zhang, Jie (Thesis advisor) / Hu, Jie (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2021
Description
This dissertation consists of three essays studying topics in financial economicsthrough the lens of quantitative models. In particular, I provide three examples of the
effective use of data in the disciplining of financial economics models. In the first essay,
I provide evidence of a significant transitory component of aggregate equity payout.
Leading asset pricing models assume exogenous dividend growth processes which are
inconsistent with this fact. I find that imposing market clearing for consumption
and income in these models induces the relevant behaviors in dividend growth, even
when dividend growth is obtained indirectly. In the second essay, I provide a novel
decomposition of the unconditional equity risk premium. In the data, the majority of
the equity premium is attributable to moderate left tail risks, not those associated
with disaster states. In stark contrast to the data, leading asset pricing models do
not predict that this intermediate left tail region meaningfully contributes to the
equity premium. The shortcomings of the models can be pinned on unreasonably low
prices of risk for tail events relative to the data. In the third essay, I document a
large dispersion in household allocations to risky assets conditional on age. I show
that while standard household portfolio choice models can be made to match the
average risky share over the lifecycle, the models fall short of generating sufficient
heterogeneity in the cross-section of household portfolios.
ContributorsBeason, Tyler (Author) / Mehra, Rajnish (Thesis advisor) / Wahal, Sunil (Thesis advisor) / Pruitt, Seth (Committee member) / Schreindorfer, David (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2021
Description随着科创板、注册制出台，企业间的竞争逐步从资源型竞争转向科技和技术的竞争，大量有知识、有文化、有理想、有技术的人才涌入社会，给科技发展、技术创新在政策、市场和人才层面提供了支撑、机遇和源动力，科技型创新企业大量涌现，形成趋势性上升行业。科技型创业企业多冠以“规模小、技术密集、高成长、高风险”的标签，在融资过程中困难重重，这些特点与风险投资（VC）“高风险、高回报”的特质不谋而合，VC机构还能给被投企业提供人才、信息、商业模式、政策法律咨询等增值服务，助力企业发展。引入VC走上市路径成为诸多科技型创业企业最优选择。
近些年VC行业在我国得到迅猛发展，IVC和CVC已成了助推我国科技型创业企业发展的主力军。由于IVC和CVC的组织架构、投资期限、资金来源、投资目标、投资经验、管理层薪资结构等方面存在着很大的不同。不同的投资模式势必会对被投企业的经营活动产生不同影响，本文基于总资产单位产出和投入为经济学逻辑，针对相关变量提出假设。
本文对我国中小板和创业板2013年以前上市的七个高新技术行业（5G通信、大数据、人工智能、软件服务、生物制药、新材料、医疗器械）共123家，以上市为起点的6年企业数据为基础。以IVC和CVC为自变量，以上市司龄、企业规模、行业控制、分红占净利润比为控制变量，以V/A、E/A、K/A和E/R为因变量，对IVC和CVC投入的科技型创业企业分别进行描述性统计、相关性分析和回归分析，验证IVC和CVC对被投企业的市场维度（V/A）、财务维度（E/A、E/R）、创新维度（K/A）的影响。试图从企业的角度出发，理清企业与VC的关系，为二级市场投资者提供一个投资决策视角。
ContributorsZhang, Mingpeng (Author) / Shen, Wei (Thesis advisor) / Jiang, Zhan (Thesis advisor) / Hu, Jie (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2021
Description
This dissertation consists of three essays studying the relationship between corporate finance and monetary policy and macroeconomics. In the first essay, I provide novel estimations of the monetary policy’s working capital channel size by estimating a dynamic stochastic macro-finance model using firm-level data. In aggregate, I find a partial channel —about three-fourths of firms’ labor bill is borrowed. But the strength of this channel varies across industries, reaching as low as one-half for retail firms and as high as one for agriculture and construction. These results provide evidence that monetary policy could have varying effects across industries through the working capital channel. In the second essay, I study the effects of the Unconventional Monetary Policy (UMP) of purchasing corporate bonds on firms’ decisions in the COVID-19 crisis. Specifically, I develop a theoretical model which predicts that the firm’s default probability plays a crucial role in transmitting the effects of COVID-19 shock and the UMP. Using the model to evaluate two kinds of heterogeneities (size and initial credit risk), I show that large firms and high-risk firms are more affected by COVID-19 shock and are more responsive to the UMP. I then run cross-sectional regressions, whose results support the theoretical predictions suggesting that the firm’s characteristics, such as assets and operating income, are relevant to understanding the UMP effects. In the third essay, I document that capital utilization and short-term debt are procyclical. I show that a strong positive relationship exists at the aggregate and firm levels. It persists even when I control the regressions for firm size, profits, growth, and business cycle effects. In addition, the Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model shows that in the presence of capital utilization, positive real and financial shocks cause the firm to change its financing of the equity payout policy from earnings to debt, increasing short-term debt.
ContributorsGalindo Gil, Hamilton (Author) / Pruitt, Seth (Thesis advisor) / Schreindorfer, David (Thesis advisor) / Bessembinder, Hendrik (Committee member) / Mehra, Rajnish (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2022