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Description
The implications of a changing climate have a profound impact on human life, society, and policy making. The need for accurate climate prediction becomes increasingly important as we better understand these implications. Currently, the most widely used climate prediction relies on the synthesis of climate model simulations organized by the

The implications of a changing climate have a profound impact on human life, society, and policy making. The need for accurate climate prediction becomes increasingly important as we better understand these implications. Currently, the most widely used climate prediction relies on the synthesis of climate model simulations organized by the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP); these simulations are ensemble-averaged to construct projections for the 21st century climate. However, a significant degree of bias and variability in the model simulations for the 20th century climate is well-known at both global and regional scales. Based on that insight, this study provides an alternative approach for constructing climate projections that incorporates knowledge of model bias. This approach is demonstrated to be a viable alternative which can be easily implemented by water resource managers for potentially more accurate projections. Tests of the new approach are provided on a global scale with an emphasis on semiarid regional studies for their particular vulnerability to water resource changes, using both the former CMIP Phase 3 (CMIP3) and current Phase 5 (CMIP5) model archives. This investigation is accompanied by a detailed analysis of the dynamical processes and water budget to understand the behaviors and sources of model biases. Sensitivity studies of selected CMIP5 models are also performed with an atmospheric component model by testing the relationship between climate change forcings and model simulated response. The information derived from each study is used to determine the progressive quality of coupled climate models in simulating the global water cycle by rigorously investigating sources of model bias related to the moisture budget. As such, the conclusions of this project are highly relevant to model development and potentially may be used to further improve climate projections.
ContributorsBaker, Noel C (Author) / Huang, Huei-Ping (Thesis advisor) / Trimble, Steve (Committee member) / Anderson, James (Committee member) / Clarke, Amanda (Committee member) / Calhoun, Ronald (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2013
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Description
Sedimentary basins are defined by extensional tectonics. Rugged mountain ranges stand in stark relief adjacent to muted structural basins filled with sediment. In simplest terms, this topography is the result of ranges uplifted along normal faults, and this uplift drives erosion within upland drainages, shedding sediment into subsiding basins. In

Sedimentary basins are defined by extensional tectonics. Rugged mountain ranges stand in stark relief adjacent to muted structural basins filled with sediment. In simplest terms, this topography is the result of ranges uplifted along normal faults, and this uplift drives erosion within upland drainages, shedding sediment into subsiding basins. In southeastern Arizona's Basin and Range province extensional tectonics waned at approximately 3-5 Myr, and the region's structural basins began transitioning from internal to external drainage, forming the modern Gila River fluvial network. In the Atacama Desert of northern Chile, some basins of the Central Depression remain internally drained while others have integrated to the Pacific Ocean. In northern Chile, rates of landscape evolution are some of the slowest on Earth due to the region's hyperarid climate. While the magnitude of upland erosion driven by extensional tectonics is largely recorded in the stratigraphy of the structural basins, the landscape's response to post-tectonic forcings is unknown.

I employ the full suite of modern geomorphic tools provided by terrestrial cosmogenic nuclides - surface exposure dating, conventional burial dating, isochron burial dating, quantifying millennial-scale upland erosion rates using detrital TCN, quantifying paleo-erosion rates using multiple TCN such as Ne-21/Be-10 and Al-26l/Be-10, and assessing sediment recycling and complex exposure using multiple TCN - to quantify the rates of landscape evolution in southeastern Arizona and northern Chile during the Late Cenozoic. In Arizona, I also use modern remnants of the pre-incision landscape and digital terrain analyses to reconstruct the landscape, allowing the quantification of incision and erosion rates that supplement detrital TCN-derived erosion rates. A new chronology for key basin high stand remnants (Frye Mesa) and a flight of Gila River terraces in Safford basin provides a record of incision rates from the Pliocene through the Quaternary, and I assess how significantly regional incision is driving erosion rates. Paired nuclide analyses in the Atacama Desert of northern Chile reveal complex exposure histories resulting from several rounds of transport and burial by fluvial systems. These results support a growing understanding that geomorphic processes in the Atacama Desert are more active than previously thought despite the region's hyperarid climate.
ContributorsJungers, Matthew Cross (Author) / Heimsath, Arjun M (Thesis advisor) / Whipple, Kelin (Committee member) / Arrowsmith, Ramon (Committee member) / Vivoni, Enrique (Committee member) / DeVecchio, Duane (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2014
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Description
Impact cratering and volcanism are two fundamental processes that alter the surfaces of the terrestrial planets. Though well studied through laboratory experiments and terrestrial analogs, many questions remain regarding how these processes operate across the Solar System. Little is known about the formation of large impact basins (>300 km in

Impact cratering and volcanism are two fundamental processes that alter the surfaces of the terrestrial planets. Though well studied through laboratory experiments and terrestrial analogs, many questions remain regarding how these processes operate across the Solar System. Little is known about the formation of large impact basins (>300 km in diameter) and the degree to which they modify planetary surfaces. On the Moon, large impact basins dominate the terrain and are relatively well preserved. Because the lunar geologic timescale is largely derived from basin stratigraphic relations, it is crucial that we are able to identify and characterize materials emplaced as a result of the formation of the basins, such as light plains. Using high-resolution images under consistent illumination conditions and topography from the Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter Camera (LROC), a new global map of light plains is presented at an unprecedented scale, revealing critical details of lunar stratigraphy and providing insight into the erosive power of large impacts. This work demonstrates that large basins significantly alter the lunar surface out to at least 4 radii from the rim, two times farther than previously thought. Further, the effect of pre-existing topography on the degradation of impact craters is unclear, despite their use in the age dating of surfaces. Crater measurements made over large regions of consistent coverage using LROC images and slopes derived from LROC topography show that pre-existing topography affects crater abundances and absolute model ages for craters up to at least 4 km in diameter.

On Mars, small volcanic edifices can provide valuable insight into the evolution of the crust and interior, but a lack of superposed craters and heavy mantling by dust make them difficult to age date. On Earth, morphometry can be used to determine the ages of cinder cone volcanoes in the absence of dated samples. Comparisons of high-resolution topography from the Context Imager (CTX) and a two-dimensional nonlinear diffusion model show that the forms observed on Mars could have been created through Earth-like processes, and with future work, it may be possible to derive an age estimate for these features in the absence of superposed craters or samples.
ContributorsMeyer, Heather (Author) / Robinson, Mark S (Thesis advisor) / Bell, Jim (Thesis advisor) / Denevi, Brett (Committee member) / Clarke, Amanda (Committee member) / Asphaug, Erik (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2018
Description
The study of fault zones is a critical component to understanding earthquake mechanics and seismic hazard evaluations. Models or simulations of potential earthquakes, based on fault zone properties, are a first step in mitigating the hazard. Theoretical models of earthquake ruptures along a bi-material interface result in asymmetrical damage and

The study of fault zones is a critical component to understanding earthquake mechanics and seismic hazard evaluations. Models or simulations of potential earthquakes, based on fault zone properties, are a first step in mitigating the hazard. Theoretical models of earthquake ruptures along a bi-material interface result in asymmetrical damage and preferred rupture propagation direction. Results include greater damage intensity within stiffer material and preferred slip in the direction of the more compliant side of the fault. Data from a dense seismic array along the Clark strand of the SJFZ at Sage Brush Flat (SGB) near Anza, CA, allows for analysis and characterization of shallow (<1km depth) seismic structure and fault zone properties. Results indicate potential asymmetric rock damage at SGB, similar to findings elsewhere along the SJFZ suggesting an NW preferred rupture propagation.

In this study, analysis of high resolution topography suggests asymmetric morphology of the SGB basin slopes are partially attributed to structural growth and fault zone damage. Spatial distributions of rock damage, from site mapping and fault perpendicular transects within SGB and Alkali Wash, are seemingly asymmetric with pulverization dominantly between fault strands or in the NE fault block. Remapping of the SJFZ through Alkali Wash indicates the fault is not isolated to a single strand along the main geologic boundary as previously mapped. Displacement measurements within SGB are analogous to those from the most recent large earthquake on the Clark fault. Geologic models from both a 3D shear wave velocity model (a product from the dense seismic array analysis) and lithologic and structural mapping from this study indicate surface observations and shallow seismic data compare well. A synthetic three-dimensional fault zone model illustrates the complexity of the structure at SGB for comparison with dense array seismic wave products. Results of this study generally agree with findings from seismic wave interpretations suggesting damage asymmetry is controlled by a NW preferred rupture propagation.
ContributorsWade, Adam Micahel (Author) / Arrowsmith, Ramon (Thesis advisor) / Reynolds, Stephen (Committee member) / DeVecchio, Duane (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2018
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Description
ABSTRACT

The Sentinel-Arlington Volcanic Field (SAVF) is the Sentinel Plains lava field and associated volcanic edifices of late Cenozoic alkali olivine basaltic lava flows and minor tephra deposits near the Gila Bend and Painted Rock Mountains, 65 km-100km southwest of Phoenix, Arizona. The SAVF covers ~600 km2 and consists of

ABSTRACT

The Sentinel-Arlington Volcanic Field (SAVF) is the Sentinel Plains lava field and associated volcanic edifices of late Cenozoic alkali olivine basaltic lava flows and minor tephra deposits near the Gila Bend and Painted Rock Mountains, 65 km-100km southwest of Phoenix, Arizona. The SAVF covers ~600 km2 and consists of 21+ volcanic centers, primarily low shield volcanoes ranging from 4-6 km in diameter and 30-200 m in height. The SAVF represents plains-style volcanism, an emplacement style and effusion rate intermediate between flood volcanism and large shield-building volcanism. Because of these characteristics, SAVF is a good analogue to small-volume effusive volcanic centers on Mars, such as those seen the southern flank of Pavonis Mons and in the Tempe Terra region of Mars. The eruptive history of the volcanic field is established through detailed geologic map supplemented by geochemical, paleomagnetic, and geochronological analysis.

Paleomagnetic analyses were completed on 473 oriented core samples from 58 sites. Mean inclination and declination directions were calculated from 8-12 samples at each site. Fifty sites revealed well-grouped natural remanent magnetization vectors after applying alternating field demagnetization. Thirty-nine sites had reversed polarity, eleven had normal polarity. Fifteen unique paleosecular variation inclination and declination directions were identified, six were represented by more than one site with resultant vectors that correlated within a 95% confidence interval. Four reversed sites were radiometrically dated to the Matuyama Chron with ages ranging from 1.08 ± 0.15 Ma to 2.37 ± 0.02 Ma; and one normal polarity site was dated to the Olduvai normal excursion at 1.91 ± 0.59 Ma. Paleomagnetic correlations within a 95% confidence interval were used to extrapolate radiogenic dates. Results reveal 3-5 eruptive stages over ~1.5 Ma in the early Pleistocene and that the SAVF dammed and possibly diverted the lower Gila River multiple times. Preliminary modeling of the median clast size of the terrace deposits suggests a maximum discharge of ~11300 cms (~400,000 cfs) was necessary to transport observed sediment load, which is larger than the historically recorded discharge of the modern Gila River.
ContributorsCave, Shelby Renee (Author) / Clarke, Amanda (Thesis advisor) / Burt, Donald (Committee member) / Reynolds, Stephen (Committee member) / Semken, Steven (Committee member) / Schmeeckle, Mark (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2015
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Description
For this dissertation, three separate papers explore the study areas of the western Grand Canyon, the Grand Staircase (as related to Grand Canyon) and Desolation Canyon on the Green River in Utah.

In western Grand Canyon, I use comparative geomorphology between the Grand Canyon and the Grand Wash Cliffs (GWC). We

For this dissertation, three separate papers explore the study areas of the western Grand Canyon, the Grand Staircase (as related to Grand Canyon) and Desolation Canyon on the Green River in Utah.

In western Grand Canyon, I use comparative geomorphology between the Grand Canyon and the Grand Wash Cliffs (GWC). We propose the onset of erosion of the GWC is caused by slip on the Grand Wash Fault that formed between 18 and 12 million years ago. Hillslope angle and channel steepness are higher in Grand Canyon than along the Grand Wash Cliffs despite similar rock types, climate and base level fall magnitude. These experimental controls allow inference that the Grand Canyon is younger and eroding at a faster rate than the Grand Wash Cliffs.

The Grand Staircase is the headwaters of some of the streams that flow into Grand Canyon. A space-for-time substitution of erosion rates, supported by landscape simulations, implies that the Grand Canyon is the result of an increase in base level fall rate, with the older, slower base level fall rate preserved in the Grand Staircase. Our data and analyses also support a younger, ~6-million-year estimate of the age of Grand Canyon that is likely related to the integration of the Colorado River from the Colorado Plateau to the Basin and Range. Complicated cliff-band erosion and its effect on cosmogenic erosion rates are also explored, guiding interpretation of isotopic data in landscapes with stratigraphic variation in quartz and rock strength.

Several hypotheses for the erosion of Desolation Canyon are tested and refuted, leaving one plausible conclusion. I infer that the Uinta Basin north of Desolation Canyon is eroding slowly and that its form represents a slow, stable base level fall rate. Downstream of Desolation Canyon, the Colorado River is inferred to have established itself in the exhumed region of Canyonlands and to have incised to near modern depths prior to the integration of the Green River and the production of relief in Desolation Canyon. Analysis of incision and erosion rates in the region suggests integration is relatively recent.
ContributorsDarling, Andrew Lee (Author) / Whipple, Kelin (Thesis advisor) / Semken, Steven (Committee member) / Arrowsmith, Ramon (Committee member) / DeVecchio, Duane (Committee member) / Heimsath, Arjun (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2016
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Description
There is a need to understand spatio-temporal variation of slip in active fault zones, both for the advancement of physics-based earthquake simulation and for improved probabilistic seismic hazard assessments. One challenge in the study of seismic hazards is producing a viable earthquake rupture forecast—a model that specifies the expected frequency

There is a need to understand spatio-temporal variation of slip in active fault zones, both for the advancement of physics-based earthquake simulation and for improved probabilistic seismic hazard assessments. One challenge in the study of seismic hazards is producing a viable earthquake rupture forecast—a model that specifies the expected frequency and magnitude of events for a fault system. Time-independent earthquake forecasts can produce a mismatch among observed earthquake recurrence intervals, slip-per-event estimates, and implied slip rates. In this thesis, I developed an approach to refine several key geologic inputs to rupture forecasts by focusing on the San Andreas Fault in the Carrizo Plain, California. I use topographic forms, sub-surface excavations, and high-precision geochronology to understand the generation and preservation of slip markers at several spatial and temporal scales—from offset in a single earthquake to offset accumulated over thousands of years. This work results in a comparison of slip rate estimates in the Carrizo Plain for the last ~15 kyr that reduces ambiguity and enriches rupture forecast parameters. I analyzed a catalog of slip measurements and surveyed earth scientists with varying amounts of experience to validate high-resolution topography as a supplement to field-based active fault studies. The investigation revealed that (for both field and remote studies) epistemic uncertainties associated with measuring offset landforms can present greater limitations than the aleatoric limitations of the measurement process itself. I pursued the age and origin of small-scale fault-offset fluvial features at Van Matre Ranch, where topographic depressions were previously interpreted as single-event tectonic offsets. I provide new estimates of slip in the most recent earthquake, refine the centennial-scale fault slip rate, and formulate a new understanding of the formation of small-scale fault-offset fluvial channels from small catchments (<7,000 m2). At Phelan Creeks, I confirm the constancy of strain release for the ~15,000 years in the Carrizo Plain by reconstructing a multistage offset landform evolutionary history. I update and explicate a simplified model to interpret the geomorphic response of stream channels to strike-slip faulting. Lastly, I re-excavate and re-interpret paleoseismic catalogs along an intra-continental strike-slip fault (Altyn Tagh, China) to assess consistency of earthquake recurrence.
ContributorsSalisbury, J. Barrett (Author) / Arrowsmith, Ramon (Thesis advisor) / Shirzaei, Manoochehr (Committee member) / DeVecchio, Duane (Committee member) / Whipple, Kelin (Committee member) / Heimsath, Arjun (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2016
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Description
Both volcanism and impact cratering produce ejecta and associated deposits incorporating a molten rock component. While the heat sources are different (exogenous vs. endogenous), the end results are landforms with similar morphologies including ponds and flows of impact melt and lava around the central crater. Ejecta from both impact and

Both volcanism and impact cratering produce ejecta and associated deposits incorporating a molten rock component. While the heat sources are different (exogenous vs. endogenous), the end results are landforms with similar morphologies including ponds and flows of impact melt and lava around the central crater. Ejecta from both impact and volcanic craters can also include a high percentage of melted rock. Using Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter Camera Narrow Angle Camera (LROC NAC) images, crucial details of these landforms are finally revealed, suggesting a much more dynamic Moon than is generally appreciated. Impact melt ponds and flows at craters as small as several hundred meters in diameter provide empirical evidence of abundant melting during the impact cratering process (much more than was previously thought), and this melt is mobile on the lunar surface for a significant time before solidifying. Enhanced melt deposit occurrences in the lunar highlands (compared to the mare) suggest that porosity, target composition, and pre-existing topography influence melt production and distribution. Comparatively deep impact craters formed in young melt deposits connote a relatively rapid evolution of materials on the lunar surface. On the other end of the spectrum, volcanic eruptions have produced the vast, plains-style mare basalts. However, little was previously known about the details of small-area eruptions and proximal volcanic deposits due to a lack of resolution. High-resolution images reveal key insights into small volcanic cones (0.5-3 km in diameter) that resemble terrestrial cinder cones. The cones comprise inter-layered materials, spatter deposits, and lava flow breaches. The widespread occurrence of the cones in most nearside mare suggests that basaltic eruptions occur from multiple sources in each basin and/or that rootless eruptions are relatively common. Morphologies of small-area volcanic deposits indicate diversity in eruption behavior of lunar basaltic eruptions driven by magmatic volatiles. Finally, models of polar volatile behavior during impact-heating suggest that chemical alteration of minerals in the presence of liquid water is one possible outcome that was previously not thought possible on the Moon.
ContributorsStopar, Julie D (Author) / Robinson, Mark S. (Thesis advisor) / Bell, James (Committee member) / Christensen, Philip R. (Philip Russel) (Committee member) / Clarke, Amanda (Committee member) / Scowen, Paul (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2016
Description
Rock traits (grain size, shape, orientation) are fundamental indicators of geologic processes including geomorphology and active tectonics. Fault zone evolution, fault slip rates, and earthquake timing are informed by examinations of discontinuities in the displacements of the Earth surface at fault scarps. Fault scarps indicate the structure of fault zones

Rock traits (grain size, shape, orientation) are fundamental indicators of geologic processes including geomorphology and active tectonics. Fault zone evolution, fault slip rates, and earthquake timing are informed by examinations of discontinuities in the displacements of the Earth surface at fault scarps. Fault scarps indicate the structure of fault zones fans, relay ramps, and double faults, as well as the surface process response to the deformation and can thus indicate the activity of the fault zone and its potential hazard. “Rocky” fault scarps are unusual because they share characteristics of bedrock and alluvial fault scarps. The Volcanic Tablelands in Bishop, CA offer a natural laboratory with an array of rocky fault scarps. Machine learning mask-Region Convolutional Neural Network segments an orthophoto to identify individual particles along a specific rocky fault scarp. The resulting rock traits for thousands of particles along the scarp are used to develop conceptual models for rocky scarp geomorphology and evolution. In addition to rocky scarp classification, these tools may be useful in many sedimentary and volcanological applications for particle mapping and characterization.
ContributorsScott, Tyler (Author) / Arrowsmith, Ramon (Thesis advisor) / Das, Jnaneshwar (Committee member) / DeVecchio, Duane (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2020