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Description
The spread of invasive species may be greatly affected by human responses to prior species spread, but models and estimation methods seldom explicitly consider human responses. I investigate the effects of management responses on estimates of invasive species spread rates. To do this, I create an agent-based simulation model of an insect invasion across a county-level citrus landscape. My model provides an approximation of a complex spatial environment while allowing the "truth" to be known. The modeled environment consists of citrus orchards with insect pests dispersing among them. Insects move across the simulation environment infesting orchards, while orchard managers respond by administering insecticide according to analyst-selected behavior profiles and management responses may depend on prior invasion states. Dispersal data is generated in each simulation and used to calculate spread rate via a set of estimators selected for their predominance in the empirical literature. Spread rate is a mechanistic, emergent phenomenon measured at the population level caused by a suite of latent biological, environmental, and anthropogenic. I test the effectiveness of orchard behavior profiles on invasion suppression and evaluate the robustness of the estimators given orchard responses. I find that allowing growers to use future expectations of spread in management decisions leads to reduced spread rates. Acting in a preventative manner by applying insecticide before insects are actually present, orchards are able to lower spread rates more than by reactive behavior alone. Spread rates are highly sensitive to spatial configuration. Spatial configuration is hardly a random process, consisting of many latent factors often not accounted for in spread rate estimation. Not considering these factors may lead to an omitted variables bias and skew estimation results. The ability of spread rate estimators to predict future spread varies considerably between estimators, and with spatial configuration, invader biological parameters, and orchard behavior profile. The model suggests that understanding the latent factors inherent to dispersal is important for selecting phenomenological models of spread and interpreting estimation results. This indicates a need for caution when evaluating spread. Although standard practice, current empirical estimators may both over- and underestimate spread rate in the simulation.
ContributorsShanafelt, David William (Author) / Fenichel, Eli P (Thesis advisor) / Richards, Timothy (Committee member) / Janssen, Marco (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2012
Description
Triops (Branchiopoda: Notostraca) and Streptocephalus (Branchiopoda: Anostraca) are two crustaceans which cohabitate in ephemeral freshwater pools. They both lay desiccation resistant eggs that disperse passively to new hydrologically isolated environments. The extent of genetic distance among regions and populations is of perennial interest in animals that live in such isolated habitats. Populations in six natural ephemeral pool habitats located in two different regions of the Sonoran Desert and a transition area between the Sonoran and Chihuahuan Deserts were sampled. Sequences from Genbank were used for reference points in the determination of species as well as to further identify regional genetic distance within species. This study estimated the amount of within and between genetic distance of individuals from each region and population through the use of a neutral marker, cytochrome oxidase I (COI). We concluded that, although the method of passive dispersal may differ between the two genera, the differences do not results in different patterns of genetic distances between regions and populations. Furthermore, we only found the putative species, Triops longicaudatus "short", with enough distinct speciation. Although Triops longicaudatus "long" and Triops newberryi may be in the early stages of speciation, this study does not find enough support to conclude that they have separated.
ContributorsMurphy Jr., Patrick Joseph (Author) / Rutowski, Ronald (Thesis director) / Cartwright, Reed (Committee member) / Lessios, Nikos (Committee member) / School of Life Sciences (Contributor) / School of Human Evolution and Social Change (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2016-05
Description
Dire wolves have recently risen to fame as a result of the popular television program Game of Thrones, and thus many viewers know dire wolves as the sigil and loyal companions of the Stark house. Far fewer recognize dire wolves by their scientific name, Canis dirus, or understand the population history of this ‘fearsome wolf’ species that roamed the Americas until the megafaunal mass extinction event of the Late Pleistocene. Although numerous studies have examined the species using morphological and geographical methods, thus far their results have been either inconclusive or contradictory. Remaining questions include the relationships dire wolves share with other members of the Canis genus and the internal structure of their populations. Advancements in ancient DNA recovery methods may make it possible to study dire wolf specimens at the molecular level for the first time and may therefore prove useful in clarifying the answers to these questions. Eighteen dire wolf specimens were collected from across the United States and subjected to ancient DNA extraction, library preparation, amplification and purification, bait preparation and capture, and next-generation sequencing. There was an average of 76.9 unique reads and 5.73% coverage when mapped to the Canis familiaris reference genome in ultraconserved regions of the mitochondrial genome. The results indicate that endogenous ancient DNA was not successfully recovered and perhaps ancient DNA recovery methods have not advanced to the point of retrieving informative amounts of DNA from particularly old, thermally degraded specimens. Nevertheless, the ever-changing nature of ancient DNA research makes it vital to continually test the limitations of the field and suggests that ancient DNA recovery methods will prove useful in illuminating dire wolf population history at some point in the future.
ContributorsSkerry, Katherine Marie (Author) / Stone, Anne (Thesis director) / Amdam, Gro (Committee member) / Larson, Greger (Committee member) / School of Human Evolution and Social Change (Contributor) / School of Nutrition and Health Promotion (Contributor) / School of Life Sciences (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2018-05
Description
I argued that the development of the Anterior Inferior Iliac Spine (AIIS), an entirely novel trait unique to the hominin pelvis, signaled a critical transformation from facultative (occasional) to obligate (exclusive) bipedality. The species that were considered included Homo sapiens, Australopithecus afarensis (Lucy), Ardipithecus ramidus (Ardi) and Pan troglodytes (chimpanzee); Ar. ramidus is believed to have been a facultative biped while both A. afarensis and H. sapiens were/are obligate bipeds, a stark contrast from the upright Bent-Hip Bent-Knee gait seen in chimpanzees, an organism that lacks an AIIS. It was found that the AIIS served a significant function in the advent of bipedality from Pan to Ardi because it allowed higher attachment for the rectus femoris muscle, a crucial knee extensor; however it is not heavily implicated in the transformation from facultative to obligate bipedality. Moreover, the appearance of the AIIS, first seen in Ardi, likely occurred following the lumbosacral changes that positioned the hominin body in an upright position so that the body's center of mass remained balanced over its supporting base. This provided the framework necessary to further select for organisms that had the AIIS and could walk upright, which perpetuated this change in the hominin lineage.
ContributorsGalibov, Michael (Author) / Kimbel, William (Thesis director) / Jacobs, Mark (Committee member) / School of Life Sciences (Contributor) / School of Human Evolution and Social Change (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2016-12
Description
The closer integration of the world economy has yielded many positive benefits including the worldwide diffusion of innovative technologies and efficiency gains following the widening of international markets. However, closer integration also has negative consequences. Specifically, I focus on the ecology and economics of the spread of species and pathogens. I approach the problem using theoretical and applied models in ecology and economics. First, I use a multi-species theoretical network model to evaluate the ability of dispersal to maintain system-level biodiversity and productivity. I then extend this analysis to consider the effects of dispersal in a coupled social-ecological system where people derive benefits from species. Finally, I estimate an empirical model of the foot and mouth disease risks of trade. By combining outbreak and trade data I estimate the disease risks associated with the international trade in live animals while controlling for the biosecurity measures in place in importing countries and the presence of wild reservoirs. I find that the risks associated with the spread and dispersal of species may be positive or negative, but that this relationship depends on the ecological and economic components of the system and the interactions between them.
ContributorsShanafelt, David William (Author) / Perrings, Charles (Thesis advisor) / Fenichel, Eli (Committee member) / Richards, Timorthy (Committee member) / Janssen, Marco (Committee member) / Collins, James (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2016
Description
The coordination of group behavior in the social insects is representative of a broader phenomenon in nature, emergent biological complexity. In such systems, it is believed that large-scale patterns result from the interaction of relatively simple subunits. This dissertation involved the study of one such system: the social foraging of the ant Temnothorax rugatulus. Physically tiny with small population sizes, these cavity-dwelling ants provide a good model system to explore the mechanisms and ultimate origins of collective behavior in insect societies. My studies showed that colonies robustly exploit sugar water. Given a choice between feeders unequal in quality, colonies allocate more foragers to the better feeder. If the feeders change in quality, colonies are able to reallocate their foragers to the new location of the better feeder. These qualities of flexibility and allocation could be explained by the nature of positive feedback (tandem run recruitment) that these ants use. By observing foraging colonies with paint-marked ants, I was able to determine the `rules' that individuals follow: foragers recruit more and give up less when they find a better food source. By altering the nutritional condition of colonies, I found that these rules are flexible - attuned to the colony state. In starved colonies, individual ants are more likely to explore and recruit to food sources than in well-fed colonies. Similar to honeybees, Temmnothorax foragers appear to modulate their exploitation and recruitment behavior in response to environmental and social cues. Finally, I explored the influence of ecology (resource distribution) on the foraging success of colonies. Larger colonies showed increased consistency and a greater rate of harvest than smaller colonies, but this advantage was mediated by the distribution of resources. While patchy or rare food sources exaggerated the relative success of large colonies, regularly (or easily found) distributions leveled the playing field for smaller colonies. Social foraging in ant societies can best be understood when we view the colony as a single organism and the phenotype - group size, communication, and individual behavior - as integrated components of a homeostatic unit.
ContributorsShaffer, Zachary (Author) / Pratt, Stephen C (Thesis advisor) / Hölldobler, Bert (Committee member) / Janssen, Marco (Committee member) / Fewell, Jennifer (Committee member) / Liebig, Juergen (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2014