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- All Subjects: Biology
- All Subjects: Mathematical Biology
- Genre: Doctoral Dissertation
- Creators: Kuang, Yang
- Member of: ASU Electronic Theses and Dissertations
- Status: Published
Description
The representation of a patient’s characteristics as the parameters of a model is a key component in many studies of personalized medicine, where the underlying mathematical models are used to describe, explain, and forecast the course of treatment. In this context, clinical observations form the bridge between the mathematical frameworks and applications. However, the formulation and theoretical studies of the models and the clinical studies are often not completely compatible, which is one of the main obstacles in the application of mathematical models in practice. The goal of my study is to extend a mathematical framework to model prostate cancer based mainly on the concept of cell-quota within an evolutionary framework and to study the relevant aspects for the model to gain useful insights in practice. Specifically, the first aim is to construct a mathematical model that can explain and predict the observed clinical data under various treatment combinations. The second aim is to find a fundamental model structure that can capture the dynamics of cancer progression within a realistic set of data. Finally, relevant clinical aspects such as how the patient's parameters change over the course of treatment and how to incorporate treatment optimization within a framework of uncertainty quantification, will be examined to construct a useful framework in practice.
ContributorsPhan, Tin (Author) / Kuang, Yang (Thesis advisor) / Kostelich, Eric J (Committee member) / Crook, Sharon (Committee member) / Maley, Carlo (Committee member) / Bryce, Alan (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2021
Description
The most advanced social insects, the eusocial insects, form often large societies in which there is reproductive division of labor, queens and workers, have overlapping generations, and cooperative brood care where daughter workers remain in the nest with their queen mother and care for their siblings. The eusocial insects are composed of representative species of bees and wasps, and all species of ants and termites. Much is known about their organizational structure, but remains to be discovered.
The success of social insects is dependent upon cooperative behavior and adaptive strategies shaped by natural selection that respond to internal or external conditions. The objective of my research was to investigate specific mechanisms that have helped shaped the structure of division of labor observed in social insect colonies, including age polyethism and nutrition, and phenomena known to increase colony survival such as egg cannibalism. I developed various Ordinary Differential Equation (ODE) models in which I applied dynamical, bifurcation, and sensitivity analysis to carefully study and visualize biological outcomes in social organisms to answer questions regarding the conditions under which a colony can survive. First, I investigated how the population and evolutionary dynamics of egg cannibalism and division of labor can promote colony survival. I then introduced a model of social conflict behavior to study the inclusion of different response functions that explore the benefits of cannibalistic behavior and how it contributes to age polyethism, the change in behavior of workers as they age, and its biological relevance. Finally, I introduced a model to investigate the importance of pollen nutritional status in a honeybee colony, how it affects population growth and influences division of labor within the worker caste. My results first reveal that both cannibalism and division of labor are adaptive strategies that increase the size of the worker population, and therefore, the persistence of the colony. I show the importance of food collection, consumption, and processing rates to promote good colony nutrition leading to the coexistence of brood and adult workers. Lastly, I show how taking into account seasonality for pollen collection improves the prediction of long term consequences.
The success of social insects is dependent upon cooperative behavior and adaptive strategies shaped by natural selection that respond to internal or external conditions. The objective of my research was to investigate specific mechanisms that have helped shaped the structure of division of labor observed in social insect colonies, including age polyethism and nutrition, and phenomena known to increase colony survival such as egg cannibalism. I developed various Ordinary Differential Equation (ODE) models in which I applied dynamical, bifurcation, and sensitivity analysis to carefully study and visualize biological outcomes in social organisms to answer questions regarding the conditions under which a colony can survive. First, I investigated how the population and evolutionary dynamics of egg cannibalism and division of labor can promote colony survival. I then introduced a model of social conflict behavior to study the inclusion of different response functions that explore the benefits of cannibalistic behavior and how it contributes to age polyethism, the change in behavior of workers as they age, and its biological relevance. Finally, I introduced a model to investigate the importance of pollen nutritional status in a honeybee colony, how it affects population growth and influences division of labor within the worker caste. My results first reveal that both cannibalism and division of labor are adaptive strategies that increase the size of the worker population, and therefore, the persistence of the colony. I show the importance of food collection, consumption, and processing rates to promote good colony nutrition leading to the coexistence of brood and adult workers. Lastly, I show how taking into account seasonality for pollen collection improves the prediction of long term consequences.
ContributorsRodríguez Messan, Marisabel (Author) / Kang, Yun (Thesis advisor) / Castillo-Chavez, Carlos (Thesis advisor) / Kuang, Yang (Committee member) / Page Jr., Robert E (Committee member) / Gardner, Carl (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2018
Description
Cancer is a major health problem in the world today and is expected to become an even larger one in the future. Although cancer therapy has improved for many cancers in the last several decades, there is much room for further improvement. Mathematical modeling has the advantage of being able to test many theoretical therapies without having to perform clinical trials and experiments. Mathematical oncology will continue to be an important tool in the future regarding cancer therapies and management.
This dissertation is structured as a growing tumor. Chapters 2 and 3 consider spheroid models. These models are adept at describing 'early-time' tumors, before the tumor needs to co-opt blood vessels to continue sustained growth. I consider two partial differential equation (PDE) models for spheroid growth of glioblastoma. I compare these models to in vitro experimental data for glioblastoma tumor cell lines and other proposed models. Further, I investigate the conditions under which traveling wave solutions exist and confirm numerically.
As a tumor grows, it can no longer be approximated by a spheroid, and it becomes necessary to use in vivo data and more sophisticated modeling to model the growth and diffusion. In Chapter 4, I explore experimental data and computational models for describing growth and diffusion of glioblastoma in murine brains. I discuss not only how the data was obtained, but how the 3D brain geometry is created from Magnetic Resonance (MR) images. A 3D finite-difference code is used to model tumor growth using a basic reaction-diffusion equation. I formulate and test hypotheses as to why there are large differences between the final tumor sizes between the mice.
Once a tumor has reached a detectable size, it is diagnosed, and treatment begins. Chapter 5 considers modeling the treatment of prostate cancer. I consider a joint model with hormonal therapy as well as immunotherapy. I consider a timing study to determine whether changing the vaccine timing has any effect on the outcome of the patient. In addition, I perform basic analysis on the six-dimensional ordinary differential equation (ODE). I also consider the limiting case, and perform a full global analysis.
This dissertation is structured as a growing tumor. Chapters 2 and 3 consider spheroid models. These models are adept at describing 'early-time' tumors, before the tumor needs to co-opt blood vessels to continue sustained growth. I consider two partial differential equation (PDE) models for spheroid growth of glioblastoma. I compare these models to in vitro experimental data for glioblastoma tumor cell lines and other proposed models. Further, I investigate the conditions under which traveling wave solutions exist and confirm numerically.
As a tumor grows, it can no longer be approximated by a spheroid, and it becomes necessary to use in vivo data and more sophisticated modeling to model the growth and diffusion. In Chapter 4, I explore experimental data and computational models for describing growth and diffusion of glioblastoma in murine brains. I discuss not only how the data was obtained, but how the 3D brain geometry is created from Magnetic Resonance (MR) images. A 3D finite-difference code is used to model tumor growth using a basic reaction-diffusion equation. I formulate and test hypotheses as to why there are large differences between the final tumor sizes between the mice.
Once a tumor has reached a detectable size, it is diagnosed, and treatment begins. Chapter 5 considers modeling the treatment of prostate cancer. I consider a joint model with hormonal therapy as well as immunotherapy. I consider a timing study to determine whether changing the vaccine timing has any effect on the outcome of the patient. In addition, I perform basic analysis on the six-dimensional ordinary differential equation (ODE). I also consider the limiting case, and perform a full global analysis.
ContributorsRutter, Erica Marie (Author) / Kuang, Yang (Thesis advisor) / Kostelich, Eric J (Thesis advisor) / Frakes, David (Committee member) / Gardner, Carl (Committee member) / Jackiewicz, Zdzislaw (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2016
Description
There has been important progress in understanding ecological dynamics through the development of the theory of ecological stoichiometry. This fast growing theory provides new constraints and mechanisms that can be formulated into mathematical models. Stoichiometric models incorporate the effects of both food quantity and food quality into a single framework that produce rich dynamics. While the effects of nutrient deficiency on consumer growth are well understood, recent discoveries in ecological stoichiometry suggest that consumer dynamics are not only affected by insufficient food nutrient content (low phosphorus (P): carbon (C) ratio) but also by excess food nutrient content (high P:C). This phenomenon, known as the stoichiometric knife edge, in which animal growth is reduced not only by food with low P content but also by food with high P content, needs to be incorporated into mathematical models. Here we present Lotka-Volterra type models to investigate the growth response of Daphnia to algae of varying P:C ratios. Using a nonsmooth system of two ordinary differential equations (ODEs), we formulate the first model to incorporate the phenomenon of the stoichiometric knife edge. We then extend this stoichiometric model by mechanistically deriving and tracking free P in the environment. This resulting full knife edge model is a nonsmooth system of three ODEs. Bifurcation analysis and numerical simulations of the full model, that explicitly tracks phosphorus, leads to quantitatively different predictions than previous models that neglect to track free nutrients. The full model shows that the grazer population is sensitive to excess nutrient concentrations as a dynamical free nutrient pool induces extreme grazer population density changes. These modeling efforts provide insight on the effects of excess nutrient content on grazer dynamics and deepen our understanding of the effects of stoichiometry on the mechanisms governing population dynamics and the interactions between trophic levels.
ContributorsPeace, Angela (Author) / Kuang, Yang (Thesis advisor) / Elser, James J (Committee member) / Baer, Steven (Committee member) / Tang, Wenbo (Committee member) / Kang, Yun (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2014
Description
In 1968, phycologist M.R. Droop published his famous discovery on the functional relationship between growth rate and internal nutrient status of algae in chemostat culture. The simple notion that growth is directly dependent on intracellular nutrient concentration is useful for understanding the dynamics in many ecological systems. The cell quota in particular lends itself to ecological stoichiometry, which is a powerful framework for mathematical ecology. Three models are developed based on the cell quota principal in order to demonstrate its applications beyond chemostat culture.
First, a data-driven model is derived for neutral lipid synthesis in green microalgae with respect to nitrogen limitation. This model synthesizes several established frameworks in phycology and ecological stoichiometry. The model demonstrates how the cell quota is a useful abstraction for understanding the metabolic shift to neutral lipid production that is observed in certain oleaginous species.
Next a producer-grazer model is developed based on the cell quota model and nutrient recycling. The model incorporates a novel feedback loop to account for animal toxicity due to accumulation of nitrogen waste. The model exhibits rich, complex dynamics which leave several open mathematical questions.
Lastly, disease dynamics in vivo are in many ways analogous to those of an ecosystem, giving natural extensions of the cell quota concept to disease modeling. Prostate cancer can be modeled within this framework, with androgen the limiting nutrient and the prostate and cancer cells as competing species. Here the cell quota model provides a useful abstraction for the dependence of cellular proliferation and apoptosis on androgen and the androgen receptor. Androgen ablation therapy is often used for patients in biochemical recurrence or late-stage disease progression and is in general initially effective. However, for many patients the cancer eventually develops resistance months to years after treatment begins. Understanding how and predicting when hormone therapy facilitates evolution of resistant phenotypes has immediate implications for treatment. Cell quota models for prostate cancer can be useful tools for this purpose and motivate applications to other diseases.
First, a data-driven model is derived for neutral lipid synthesis in green microalgae with respect to nitrogen limitation. This model synthesizes several established frameworks in phycology and ecological stoichiometry. The model demonstrates how the cell quota is a useful abstraction for understanding the metabolic shift to neutral lipid production that is observed in certain oleaginous species.
Next a producer-grazer model is developed based on the cell quota model and nutrient recycling. The model incorporates a novel feedback loop to account for animal toxicity due to accumulation of nitrogen waste. The model exhibits rich, complex dynamics which leave several open mathematical questions.
Lastly, disease dynamics in vivo are in many ways analogous to those of an ecosystem, giving natural extensions of the cell quota concept to disease modeling. Prostate cancer can be modeled within this framework, with androgen the limiting nutrient and the prostate and cancer cells as competing species. Here the cell quota model provides a useful abstraction for the dependence of cellular proliferation and apoptosis on androgen and the androgen receptor. Androgen ablation therapy is often used for patients in biochemical recurrence or late-stage disease progression and is in general initially effective. However, for many patients the cancer eventually develops resistance months to years after treatment begins. Understanding how and predicting when hormone therapy facilitates evolution of resistant phenotypes has immediate implications for treatment. Cell quota models for prostate cancer can be useful tools for this purpose and motivate applications to other diseases.
ContributorsPacker, Aaron (Author) / Kuang, Yang (Thesis advisor) / Nagy, John (Committee member) / Smith, Hal (Committee member) / Kostelich, Eric (Committee member) / Kang, Yun (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2014
Description
The phycologist, M. R. Droop, studied vitamin B12 limitation in the flagellate Monochrysis lutheri and concluded that its specific growth rate depended on the concentration of the vitamin within the cell; i.e. the cell quota of the vitamin B12. The Droop model provides a mathematical expression to link growth rate to the intracellular concentration of a limiting nutrient. Although the Droop model has been an important modeling tool in ecology, it has only recently been applied to study cancer biology. Cancer cells live in an ecological setting, interacting and competing with normal and other cancerous cells for nutrients and space, and evolving and adapting to their environment. Here, the Droop equation is used to model three cancers.
First, prostate cancer is modeled, where androgen is considered the limiting nutrient since most tumors depend on androgen for proliferation and survival. The model's accuracy for predicting the biomarker for patients on intermittent androgen deprivation therapy is tested by comparing the simulation results to clinical data as well as to an existing simpler model. The results suggest that a simpler model may be more beneficial for a predictive use, although further research is needed in this field prior to implementing mathematical models as a predictive method in a clinical setting.
Next, two chronic myeloid leukemia models are compared that consider Imatinib treatment, a drug that inhibits the constitutively active tyrosine kinase BCR-ABL. Both models describe the competition of leukemic and normal cells, however the first model also describes intracellular dynamics by considering BCR-ABL as the limiting nutrient. Using clinical data, the differences in estimated parameters between the models and the capacity for each model to predict drug resistance are analyzed.
Last, a simple model is presented that considers ovarian tumor growth and tumor induced angiogenesis, subject to on and off anti-angiogenesis treatment. In this environment, the cell quota represents the intracellular concentration of necessary nutrients provided through blood supply. Mathematical analysis of the model is presented and model simulation results are compared to pre-clinical data. This simple model is able to fit both on- and off-treatment data using the same biologically relevant parameters.
First, prostate cancer is modeled, where androgen is considered the limiting nutrient since most tumors depend on androgen for proliferation and survival. The model's accuracy for predicting the biomarker for patients on intermittent androgen deprivation therapy is tested by comparing the simulation results to clinical data as well as to an existing simpler model. The results suggest that a simpler model may be more beneficial for a predictive use, although further research is needed in this field prior to implementing mathematical models as a predictive method in a clinical setting.
Next, two chronic myeloid leukemia models are compared that consider Imatinib treatment, a drug that inhibits the constitutively active tyrosine kinase BCR-ABL. Both models describe the competition of leukemic and normal cells, however the first model also describes intracellular dynamics by considering BCR-ABL as the limiting nutrient. Using clinical data, the differences in estimated parameters between the models and the capacity for each model to predict drug resistance are analyzed.
Last, a simple model is presented that considers ovarian tumor growth and tumor induced angiogenesis, subject to on and off anti-angiogenesis treatment. In this environment, the cell quota represents the intracellular concentration of necessary nutrients provided through blood supply. Mathematical analysis of the model is presented and model simulation results are compared to pre-clinical data. This simple model is able to fit both on- and off-treatment data using the same biologically relevant parameters.
ContributorsEverett, Rebecca Anne (Author) / Kuang, Yang (Thesis advisor) / Nagy, John (Committee member) / Milner, Fabio (Committee member) / Crook, Sharon (Committee member) / Jackiewicz, Zdzislaw (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2015
Description
Predicting resistant prostate cancer is critical for lowering medical costs and improving the quality of life of advanced prostate cancer patients. I formulate, compare, and analyze two mathematical models that aim to forecast future levels of prostate-specific antigen (PSA). I accomplish these tasks by employing clinical data of locally advanced prostate cancer patients undergoing androgen deprivation therapy (ADT). I demonstrate that the inverse problem of parameter estimation might be too complicated and simply relying on data fitting can give incorrect conclusions, since there is a large error in parameter values estimated and parameters might be unidentifiable. I provide confidence intervals to give estimate forecasts using data assimilation via an ensemble Kalman Filter. Using the ensemble Kalman Filter, I perform dual estimation of parameters and state variables to test the prediction accuracy of the models. Finally, I present a novel model with time delay and a delay-dependent parameter. I provide a geometric stability result to study the behavior of this model and show that the inclusion of time delay may improve the accuracy of predictions. Also, I demonstrate with clinical data that the inclusion of the delay-dependent parameter facilitates the identification and estimation of parameters.
ContributorsBaez, Javier (Author) / Kuang, Yang (Thesis advisor) / Kostelich, Eric (Committee member) / Crook, Sharon (Committee member) / Gardner, Carl (Committee member) / Nagy, John (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2017
Description
Cancer is a disease involving abnormal growth of cells. Its growth dynamics is perplexing. Mathematical modeling is a way to shed light on this progress and its medical treatments. This dissertation is to study cancer invasion in time and space using a mathematical approach. Chapter 1 presents a detailed review of literature on cancer modeling.
Chapter 2 focuses sorely on time where the escape of a generic cancer out of immune control is described by stochastic delayed differential equations (SDDEs). Without time delay and noise, this system demonstrates bistability. The effects of response time of the immune system and stochasticity in the tumor proliferation rate are studied by including delay and noise in the model. Stability, persistence and extinction of the tumor are analyzed. The result shows that both time delay and noise can induce the transition from low tumor burden equilibrium to high tumor equilibrium. The aforementioned work has been published (Han et al., 2019b).
In Chapter 3, Glioblastoma multiforme (GBM) is studied using a partial differential equation (PDE) model. GBM is an aggressive brain cancer with a grim prognosis. A mathematical model of GBM growth with explicit motility, birth, and death processes is proposed. A novel method is developed to approximate key characteristics of the wave profile, which can be compared with MRI data. Several test cases of MRI data of GBM patients are used to yield personalized parameterizations of the model. The aforementioned work has been published (Han et al., 2019a).
Chapter 4 presents an innovative way of forecasting spatial cancer invasion. Most mathematical models, including the ones described in previous chapters, are formulated based on strong assumptions, which are hard, if not impossible, to verify due to complexity of biological processes and lack of quality data. Instead, a nonparametric forecasting method using Gaussian processes is proposed. By exploiting the local nature of the spatio-temporal process, sparse (in terms of time) data is sufficient for forecasting. Desirable properties of Gaussian processes facilitate selection of the size of the local neighborhood and computationally efficient propagation of uncertainty. The method is tested on synthetic data and demonstrates promising results.
Chapter 2 focuses sorely on time where the escape of a generic cancer out of immune control is described by stochastic delayed differential equations (SDDEs). Without time delay and noise, this system demonstrates bistability. The effects of response time of the immune system and stochasticity in the tumor proliferation rate are studied by including delay and noise in the model. Stability, persistence and extinction of the tumor are analyzed. The result shows that both time delay and noise can induce the transition from low tumor burden equilibrium to high tumor equilibrium. The aforementioned work has been published (Han et al., 2019b).
In Chapter 3, Glioblastoma multiforme (GBM) is studied using a partial differential equation (PDE) model. GBM is an aggressive brain cancer with a grim prognosis. A mathematical model of GBM growth with explicit motility, birth, and death processes is proposed. A novel method is developed to approximate key characteristics of the wave profile, which can be compared with MRI data. Several test cases of MRI data of GBM patients are used to yield personalized parameterizations of the model. The aforementioned work has been published (Han et al., 2019a).
Chapter 4 presents an innovative way of forecasting spatial cancer invasion. Most mathematical models, including the ones described in previous chapters, are formulated based on strong assumptions, which are hard, if not impossible, to verify due to complexity of biological processes and lack of quality data. Instead, a nonparametric forecasting method using Gaussian processes is proposed. By exploiting the local nature of the spatio-temporal process, sparse (in terms of time) data is sufficient for forecasting. Desirable properties of Gaussian processes facilitate selection of the size of the local neighborhood and computationally efficient propagation of uncertainty. The method is tested on synthetic data and demonstrates promising results.
ContributorsHan, Lifeng (Author) / Kuang, Yang (Thesis advisor) / Fricks, John (Thesis advisor) / Kostelich, Eric (Committee member) / Baer, Steve (Committee member) / Gumel, Abba (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2020
Description
Patients suffering from Retinitis Pigmentosa (RP), the most common type of inherited retinal degeneration, experience irreversible vision loss due to photoreceptor degeneration. The preservation of cone photoreceptors has been deemed medically relevant as a therapy aimed at preventing blindness in patients with RP. Cones rely on aerobic glycolysis to supply the metabolites necessary for outer segment (OS) renewal and maintenance. The rod-derived cone viability factor (RdCVF), a protein secreted by the rod photoreceptors that preserves the cones, accelerates the flow of glucose into the cone cell stimulating aerobic glycolysis. This dissertation presents and analyzes ordinary differential equation (ODE) models of cellular and molecular level photoreceptor interactions in health and disease to examine mechanisms leading to blindness in patients with RP.
First, a mathematical model composed of four ODEs is formulated to investigate the progression of RP, accounting for the new understanding of RdCVF’s role in enhancing cone survival. A mathematical analysis is performed, and stability and bifurcation analyses are used to explore various pathways to blindness. Experimental data are used for parameter estimation and model validation. The numerical results are framed in terms of four stages in the progression of RP. Sensitivity analysis is used to determine mechanisms that have a significant affect on the cones at each stage of RP. Utilizing a non-dimensional form of the RP model, a numerical bifurcation analysis via MATCONT revealed the existence of stable limit cycles at two stages of RP.
Next, a novel eleven dimensional ODE model of molecular and cellular level interactions is described. The subsequent analysis is used to uncover mechanisms that affect cone photoreceptor functionality and vitality. Preliminary simulations show the existence of oscillatory behavior which is anticipated when all processes are functioning properly. Additional simulations are carried out to explore the impact of a reduction in the concentration of RdCVF coupled with disruption in the metabolism associated with cone OS shedding, and confirms cone-on-rod reliance. The simulation results are compared with experimental data. Finally, four cases are considered, and a sensitivity analysis is performed to reveal mechanisms that significantly impact the cones in each case.
First, a mathematical model composed of four ODEs is formulated to investigate the progression of RP, accounting for the new understanding of RdCVF’s role in enhancing cone survival. A mathematical analysis is performed, and stability and bifurcation analyses are used to explore various pathways to blindness. Experimental data are used for parameter estimation and model validation. The numerical results are framed in terms of four stages in the progression of RP. Sensitivity analysis is used to determine mechanisms that have a significant affect on the cones at each stage of RP. Utilizing a non-dimensional form of the RP model, a numerical bifurcation analysis via MATCONT revealed the existence of stable limit cycles at two stages of RP.
Next, a novel eleven dimensional ODE model of molecular and cellular level interactions is described. The subsequent analysis is used to uncover mechanisms that affect cone photoreceptor functionality and vitality. Preliminary simulations show the existence of oscillatory behavior which is anticipated when all processes are functioning properly. Additional simulations are carried out to explore the impact of a reduction in the concentration of RdCVF coupled with disruption in the metabolism associated with cone OS shedding, and confirms cone-on-rod reliance. The simulation results are compared with experimental data. Finally, four cases are considered, and a sensitivity analysis is performed to reveal mechanisms that significantly impact the cones in each case.
ContributorsBrager, Danielle Christine (Author) / Camacho, Erika (Thesis advisor) / Wirkus, Stephen (Thesis advisor) / Fricks, John (Committee member) / Gardner, Carl (Committee member) / Platte, Rodrigo (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2020
Description
Cancer is a worldwide burden in every aspect: physically, emotionally, and financially. A need for innovation in cancer research has led to a vast interdisciplinary effort to search for the next breakthrough. Mathematical modeling allows for a unique look into the underlying cellular dynamics and allows for testing treatment strategies without the need for clinical trials. This dissertation explores several iterations of a dendritic cell (DC) therapy model and correspondingly investigates what each iteration teaches about response to treatment.
In Chapter 2, motivated by the work of de Pillis et al. (2013), a mathematical model employing six ordinary differential (ODEs) and delay differential equations (DDEs) is formulated to understand the effectiveness of DC vaccines, accounting for cell trafficking with a blood and tumor compartment. A preliminary analysis is performed, with numerical simulations used to show the existence of oscillatory behavior. The model is then reduced to a system of four ODEs. Both models are validated using experimental data from melanoma-induced mice. Conditions under which the model admits rich dynamics observed in a clinical setting, such as periodic solutions and bistability, are established. Mathematical analysis proves the existence of a backward bifurcation and establishes thresholds for R0 that ensure tumor elimination or existence. A sensitivity analysis determines which parameters most significantly impact the reproduction number R0. Identifiability analysis reveals parameters of interest for estimation. Results are framed in terms of treatment implications, including effective combination and monotherapy strategies.
In Chapter 3, a study of whether the observed complexity can be represented with a simplified model is conducted. The DC model of Chapter 2 is reduced to a non-dimensional system of two DDEs. Mathematical and numerical analysis explore the impact of immune response time on the stability and eradication of the tumor, including an analytical proof of conditions necessary for the existence of a Hopf bifurcation. In a limiting case, conditions for global stability of the tumor-free equilibrium are outlined.
Lastly, Chapter 4 discusses future directions to explore. There still remain open questions to investigate and much work to be done, particularly involving uncertainty analysis. An outline of these steps is provided for future undertakings.
In Chapter 2, motivated by the work of de Pillis et al. (2013), a mathematical model employing six ordinary differential (ODEs) and delay differential equations (DDEs) is formulated to understand the effectiveness of DC vaccines, accounting for cell trafficking with a blood and tumor compartment. A preliminary analysis is performed, with numerical simulations used to show the existence of oscillatory behavior. The model is then reduced to a system of four ODEs. Both models are validated using experimental data from melanoma-induced mice. Conditions under which the model admits rich dynamics observed in a clinical setting, such as periodic solutions and bistability, are established. Mathematical analysis proves the existence of a backward bifurcation and establishes thresholds for R0 that ensure tumor elimination or existence. A sensitivity analysis determines which parameters most significantly impact the reproduction number R0. Identifiability analysis reveals parameters of interest for estimation. Results are framed in terms of treatment implications, including effective combination and monotherapy strategies.
In Chapter 3, a study of whether the observed complexity can be represented with a simplified model is conducted. The DC model of Chapter 2 is reduced to a non-dimensional system of two DDEs. Mathematical and numerical analysis explore the impact of immune response time on the stability and eradication of the tumor, including an analytical proof of conditions necessary for the existence of a Hopf bifurcation. In a limiting case, conditions for global stability of the tumor-free equilibrium are outlined.
Lastly, Chapter 4 discusses future directions to explore. There still remain open questions to investigate and much work to be done, particularly involving uncertainty analysis. An outline of these steps is provided for future undertakings.
ContributorsDickman, Lauren (Author) / Kuang, Yang (Thesis advisor) / Baer, Steven M. (Committee member) / Gardner, Carl (Committee member) / Gumel, Abba B. (Committee member) / Kostelich, Eric J. (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2020