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Structural Equation Modeling (SEM) is a multivariate analysis methodology that could potentially be utilized to examine the barrier effect that river systems have on genetic differentiation. In this project, river systems are split into the variables of Daily Average Discharge, Average River Width, and Seasonality measurements and regressed onto the genetic differentiation, measured as Fst. This data was collected from the USGS database (U.S. Geological Survey, 2020), sequencing files from differing literature, or Google Earth measurements. Different Structural Equation Modeling models are used to model different system structures as well as compare it to more traditional methodologies like Generalized Linear Modeling and Generalized Linear Mixed Modeling. Ultimately results were limited by the small sample size, however, interesting patterns still emerged from the models. The SE models indicate that Discharge plays a primary role in the genetic differentiation of adjacent river populations. In addition to this, the results demonstrate how quantification of indirect effects, particularly those relating to discharge, give more informative interpretations than traditional multivariate statistics alone. These findings prompt further investigations into this potential methodology.
Microsatellite analyses of additional locations within the M. mendax range suggest that polygyny is also present in some other populations, especially in central-northern Arizona, albeit at lower frequencies than that in the Sierra Anchas. In addition, analyses of multiple types of genetic data, including microsatellites, the mitochondrial barcoding region, and over 2000 nuclear ultra-conserved elements indicate that M. mendax populations within the southwestern U.S. and northwestern Mexico are geographically structured, with strong support for the existence of two or more divergent clades as well as isolation-by-distance within clades. This structure is further shown to correlate with variation in queen number and hair length, a diagnostic taxonomic feature used to distinguish honey ant species.
Together, these findings suggest that regional ecological pressures (e.g. colony density , climate) may have acted on colony founding and social strategy to select for increasing workforce size and, along with genetic drift, have driven geographically isolated M. mendax populations to differentiate genetically and morphologically. The presence of colony fusion in the laboratory and life history traits in honey ant that are influenced by colony size, including repletism, brood raiding, and tournament, support this evolutionary scenario.