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Mathematical modeling of infectious diseases can help public health officials to make decisions related to the mitigation of epidemic outbreaks. However, over or under estimations of the morbidity of any infectious disease can be problematic. Therefore, public health officials can always make use of better models to study the potential

Mathematical modeling of infectious diseases can help public health officials to make decisions related to the mitigation of epidemic outbreaks. However, over or under estimations of the morbidity of any infectious disease can be problematic. Therefore, public health officials can always make use of better models to study the potential implication of their decisions and strategies prior to their implementation. Previous work focuses on the mechanisms underlying the different epidemic waves observed in Mexico during the novel swine origin influenza H1N1 pandemic of 2009 and showed extensions of classical models in epidemiology by adding temporal variations in different parameters that are likely to change during the time course of an epidemic, such as, the influence of media, social distancing, school closures, and how vaccination policies may affect different aspects of the dynamics of an epidemic. This current work further examines the influence of different factors considering the randomness of events by adding stochastic processes to meta-population models. I present three different approaches to compare different stochastic methods by considering discrete and continuous time. For the continuous time stochastic modeling approach I consider the continuous-time Markov chain process using forward Kolmogorov equations, for the discrete time stochastic modeling I consider stochastic differential equations using Wiener's increment and Poisson point increments, and also I consider the discrete-time Markov chain process. These first two stochastic modeling approaches will be presented in a one city and two city epidemic models using, as a base, our deterministic model. The last one will be discussed briefly on a one city SIS and SIR-type model.
ContributorsCruz-Aponte, Maytee (Author) / Wirkus, Stephen A. (Thesis advisor) / Castillo-Chavez, Carlos (Thesis advisor) / Camacho, Erika T. (Committee member) / Kang, Yun (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2014
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Description
There has been important progress in understanding ecological dynamics through the development of the theory of ecological stoichiometry. This fast growing theory provides new constraints and mechanisms that can be formulated into mathematical models. Stoichiometric models incorporate the effects of both food quantity and food quality into a single framework

There has been important progress in understanding ecological dynamics through the development of the theory of ecological stoichiometry. This fast growing theory provides new constraints and mechanisms that can be formulated into mathematical models. Stoichiometric models incorporate the effects of both food quantity and food quality into a single framework that produce rich dynamics. While the effects of nutrient deficiency on consumer growth are well understood, recent discoveries in ecological stoichiometry suggest that consumer dynamics are not only affected by insufficient food nutrient content (low phosphorus (P): carbon (C) ratio) but also by excess food nutrient content (high P:C). This phenomenon, known as the stoichiometric knife edge, in which animal growth is reduced not only by food with low P content but also by food with high P content, needs to be incorporated into mathematical models. Here we present Lotka-Volterra type models to investigate the growth response of Daphnia to algae of varying P:C ratios. Using a nonsmooth system of two ordinary differential equations (ODEs), we formulate the first model to incorporate the phenomenon of the stoichiometric knife edge. We then extend this stoichiometric model by mechanistically deriving and tracking free P in the environment. This resulting full knife edge model is a nonsmooth system of three ODEs. Bifurcation analysis and numerical simulations of the full model, that explicitly tracks phosphorus, leads to quantitatively different predictions than previous models that neglect to track free nutrients. The full model shows that the grazer population is sensitive to excess nutrient concentrations as a dynamical free nutrient pool induces extreme grazer population density changes. These modeling efforts provide insight on the effects of excess nutrient content on grazer dynamics and deepen our understanding of the effects of stoichiometry on the mechanisms governing population dynamics and the interactions between trophic levels.
ContributorsPeace, Angela (Author) / Kuang, Yang (Thesis advisor) / Elser, James J (Committee member) / Baer, Steven (Committee member) / Tang, Wenbo (Committee member) / Kang, Yun (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2014
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Description
In 1968, phycologist M.R. Droop published his famous discovery on the functional relationship between growth rate and internal nutrient status of algae in chemostat culture. The simple notion that growth is directly dependent on intracellular nutrient concentration is useful for understanding the dynamics in many ecological systems. The cell quota

In 1968, phycologist M.R. Droop published his famous discovery on the functional relationship between growth rate and internal nutrient status of algae in chemostat culture. The simple notion that growth is directly dependent on intracellular nutrient concentration is useful for understanding the dynamics in many ecological systems. The cell quota in particular lends itself to ecological stoichiometry, which is a powerful framework for mathematical ecology. Three models are developed based on the cell quota principal in order to demonstrate its applications beyond chemostat culture.

First, a data-driven model is derived for neutral lipid synthesis in green microalgae with respect to nitrogen limitation. This model synthesizes several established frameworks in phycology and ecological stoichiometry. The model demonstrates how the cell quota is a useful abstraction for understanding the metabolic shift to neutral lipid production that is observed in certain oleaginous species.

Next a producer-grazer model is developed based on the cell quota model and nutrient recycling. The model incorporates a novel feedback loop to account for animal toxicity due to accumulation of nitrogen waste. The model exhibits rich, complex dynamics which leave several open mathematical questions.

Lastly, disease dynamics in vivo are in many ways analogous to those of an ecosystem, giving natural extensions of the cell quota concept to disease modeling. Prostate cancer can be modeled within this framework, with androgen the limiting nutrient and the prostate and cancer cells as competing species. Here the cell quota model provides a useful abstraction for the dependence of cellular proliferation and apoptosis on androgen and the androgen receptor. Androgen ablation therapy is often used for patients in biochemical recurrence or late-stage disease progression and is in general initially effective. However, for many patients the cancer eventually develops resistance months to years after treatment begins. Understanding how and predicting when hormone therapy facilitates evolution of resistant phenotypes has immediate implications for treatment. Cell quota models for prostate cancer can be useful tools for this purpose and motivate applications to other diseases.
ContributorsPacker, Aaron (Author) / Kuang, Yang (Thesis advisor) / Nagy, John (Committee member) / Smith, Hal (Committee member) / Kostelich, Eric (Committee member) / Kang, Yun (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2014
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Description
The most advanced social insects, the eusocial insects, form often large societies in which there is reproductive division of labor, queens and workers, have overlapping generations, and cooperative brood care where daughter workers remain in the nest with their queen mother and care for their siblings. The eusocial insects

The most advanced social insects, the eusocial insects, form often large societies in which there is reproductive division of labor, queens and workers, have overlapping generations, and cooperative brood care where daughter workers remain in the nest with their queen mother and care for their siblings. The eusocial insects are composed of representative species of bees and wasps, and all species of ants and termites. Much is known about their organizational structure, but remains to be discovered.

The success of social insects is dependent upon cooperative behavior and adaptive strategies shaped by natural selection that respond to internal or external conditions. The objective of my research was to investigate specific mechanisms that have helped shaped the structure of division of labor observed in social insect colonies, including age polyethism and nutrition, and phenomena known to increase colony survival such as egg cannibalism. I developed various Ordinary Differential Equation (ODE) models in which I applied dynamical, bifurcation, and sensitivity analysis to carefully study and visualize biological outcomes in social organisms to answer questions regarding the conditions under which a colony can survive. First, I investigated how the population and evolutionary dynamics of egg cannibalism and division of labor can promote colony survival. I then introduced a model of social conflict behavior to study the inclusion of different response functions that explore the benefits of cannibalistic behavior and how it contributes to age polyethism, the change in behavior of workers as they age, and its biological relevance. Finally, I introduced a model to investigate the importance of pollen nutritional status in a honeybee colony, how it affects population growth and influences division of labor within the worker caste. My results first reveal that both cannibalism and division of labor are adaptive strategies that increase the size of the worker population, and therefore, the persistence of the colony. I show the importance of food collection, consumption, and processing rates to promote good colony nutrition leading to the coexistence of brood and adult workers. Lastly, I show how taking into account seasonality for pollen collection improves the prediction of long term consequences.
ContributorsRodríguez Messan, Marisabel (Author) / Kang, Yun (Thesis advisor) / Castillo-Chavez, Carlos (Thesis advisor) / Kuang, Yang (Committee member) / Page Jr., Robert E (Committee member) / Gardner, Carl (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2018
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Description
Bee communities form the keystone of many ecosystems through their pollination services. They are dynamic and often subject to significant changes due to several different factors such as climate, urban development, and other anthropogenic disturbances. As a result, the world has been experiencing a decline in bee diversity and abundance,

Bee communities form the keystone of many ecosystems through their pollination services. They are dynamic and often subject to significant changes due to several different factors such as climate, urban development, and other anthropogenic disturbances. As a result, the world has been experiencing a decline in bee diversity and abundance, which can have detrimental effects in the ecosystems they inhabit. One of the largest factors that impacts bees in today's world is the rapid urbanization of our planet, and it impacts the bee community in mixed ways. Not very much is understood about the bee communities that exist in urban habitats, but as urbanization is inevitably going to continue, knowledge on bee communities will need to strengthen. This study aims to determine the levels of variance in bee communities, considering multiple variables that bee communities can differ in. The following three questions are posed: do bee communities that are spatially separated differ significantly? Do bee communities that are separated by seasons differ significantly? Do bee communities that are separated temporally (by year, interannually) differ significantly? The procedure to conduct this experiment consists of netting and trapping bees at two sites at various times using the same methods. The data is then statistically analyzed for differences in abundance, richness, diversity, and species composition. After performing the various statistical analyses, it has been discovered that bee communities that are spatially separated, seasonally separated, or interannually separated do not differ significantly when it comes to abundance and richness. Spatially separated bee communities and interannually separated bee communities show a moderate level of dissimilarity in their species composition, while seasonally separated bee communities show a greater level of dissimilarity in species composition. Finally, seasonally separated bee communities demonstrate the greatest disparity of bee diversity, while interannually separated bee communities show the least disparity of bee diversity. This study was conducted over the time span of two years, and while the levels of variance of an urban area between these variables were determined, further variance studies of greater length or larger areas should be conducted to increase the currently limited knowledge of bee communities in urban areas. Additional studies on precipitation amounts and their effects on bee communities should be conducted, and studies from other regions should be taken into consideration while attempting to understand what is likely the most environmentally significant group of insects.
ContributorsPhan, James Thien (Author) / Sweat, Ken (Thesis director) / Foltz-Sweat, Jennifer (Committee member) / School of Music (Contributor) / School of Molecular Sciences (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2017-05
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Description
For colonies of ponerine ant species, sterility regulation after a founding queen's death is not totally achieved in the worker caste, and the possibility of sexual reproduction is opened to workers. The persisting survival of these colonies is dependent on capturing the optimal reproductive ratio; yet, an informational gap bounds

For colonies of ponerine ant species, sterility regulation after a founding queen's death is not totally achieved in the worker caste, and the possibility of sexual reproduction is opened to workers. The persisting survival of these colonies is dependent on capturing the optimal reproductive ratio; yet, an informational gap bounds the mechanisms detailing the selection of new reproductives and the suppression of ovarian development in rejected reproductives. We investigated the mechanisms of worker policing, one of the primary methods of ovarian suppression, through continuous video observation for a period of five days at the start of colony instability. Observations suggest policing in H. saltator is performed by a majority of a colony, including potential reproductives, and requires multiple events to fully discourage ovarian growth.
ContributorsChien, Jeffrey (Co-author) / Barat Ali, Fatima (Co-author) / Kang, Yun (Thesis director) / Liebig, Juergen (Committee member) / School of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences (Contributor) / Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering Program (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2018-12
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Description
Division of Labor among social insects is frequently discussed in regards to the colony's worker population. However, before a colony achieves a worker population, a queen is required to perform all of the tasks necessary for her survival: foraging, building the colony, and brood care. A simple ODE model was

Division of Labor among social insects is frequently discussed in regards to the colony's worker population. However, before a colony achieves a worker population, a queen is required to perform all of the tasks necessary for her survival: foraging, building the colony, and brood care. A simple ODE model was developed through the use of a framework of replicator equations in dynamical environments to investigate how queen ants perform and distribute all of the tasks necessary for her and her colony's survival by incorporating individual internal thresholds and environmental stimulus. Modi�cations to the internal threshold, risk of performing the task, and the rate of increase of the environmental stimulus were also explored. Because of the simplicity of the model, it could also be used to measure the task performance of larger populations of social insects. However, the model has only been applied to the data collected from Pogonomyrmex barbatus single queen ants.
ContributorsKincade, Katherine Margaret (Author) / Kang, Yun (Thesis director) / Fewell, Jennifer (Committee member) / Lanchier, Nicolas (Committee member) / School of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences (Contributor) / Computer Science and Engineering Program (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2016-12
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Description
A key factor in the success of social animals is their organization of work. Mathematical models have been instrumental in unraveling how simple, individual-based rules can generate collective patterns via self-organization. However, existing models offer limited insights into how these patterns are shaped by behavioral differences within groups, in part

A key factor in the success of social animals is their organization of work. Mathematical models have been instrumental in unraveling how simple, individual-based rules can generate collective patterns via self-organization. However, existing models offer limited insights into how these patterns are shaped by behavioral differences within groups, in part because they focus on analyzing specific rules rather than general mechanisms that can explain behavior at the individual-level. My work argues for a more principled approach that focuses on the question of how individuals make decisions in costly environments.

In Chapters 2 and 3, I demonstrate how this approach provides novel insights into factors that shape the flexibility and robustness of task organization in harvester ant colonies (Pogonomyrmex barbatus). My results show that the degree to which colonies can respond to work in fluctuating environments depends on how individuals weigh the costs of activity and update their behavior in response to social information. In Chapter 4, I introduce a mathematical framework to study the emergence of collective organization in heterogenous groups. My approach, which is based on the theory of multi-agent systems, focuses on myopic agents whose behavior emerges out of an independent valuation of alternative choices in a given work environment. The product of this dynamic is an equilibrium organization in which agents perform different tasks (or abstain from work) with an analytically defined set of threshold probabilities. The framework is minimally developed, but can be extended to include other factors known to affect task decisions including individual experience and social facilitation. This research contributes a novel approach to developing (and analyzing) models of task organization that can be applied in a broader range of contexts where animals cooperate.
ContributorsUdiani, Oyita (Author) / Kang, Yun (Thesis advisor) / Fewell, Jennifer H (Thesis advisor) / Janssen, Marcus A (Committee member) / Castillo-Chavez, Carlos (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2016
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The college textbook is the most commonly required component of almost any college course, regardless of a student's academic discipline. Professors often expect students to have access to the textbook and to use it to complete assigned readings. Textbooks often contain features that are designed to facilitate active reading, or

The college textbook is the most commonly required component of almost any college course, regardless of a student's academic discipline. Professors often expect students to have access to the textbook and to use it to complete assigned readings. Textbooks often contain features that are designed to facilitate active reading, or critical engagement with the information being read, to enhance learning of the material. However, students often do not read or prioritize reading the textbook. Students who do read, tend not to read the textbook as intended or use many of the features designed to promote active reading and enhanced learning of the material. Educational studies of textbooks tend to focus on aspects related to topics more relevant to publishers or professors with less research on aspects of the textbook applicable to students at the college level. The purpose of this study is to evaluate students' textbook use and their attitudes toward the textbook in an introductory biology course. Results of this study indicate students hold positive attitudes toward their textbook in an introductory biology course and majority of students do not use components meant to facilitate active learning. Although students report completing assigned readings, students may actually be reading select portions of what is assigned in using the textbook to prepare for exams. These results suggest that students may only be using their textbook to enhance their understanding of materials they expect to be tested on. The findings of this study help to understand the role of the textbook from the perspective of the student and provide insight for improving textbook design and use in science courses at the college level.
ContributorsRudolph, Alexia Marion (Author) / Vanmali, Binaben (Thesis director) / Chen, Ying-Chih (Committee member) / Yoho, Rachel (Committee member) / Department of Psychology (Contributor) / School of Molecular Sciences (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2016-05
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Description

Lyme disease is a common tick-borne illness caused by the Gram-negative bacterium Borrelia burgdorferi. An outer membrane protein of Borrelia burgdorferi, P66, has been suggested as a possible target for Lyme disease treatments. However, a lack of structural information available for P66 has hindered attempts to design medications to target

Lyme disease is a common tick-borne illness caused by the Gram-negative bacterium Borrelia burgdorferi. An outer membrane protein of Borrelia burgdorferi, P66, has been suggested as a possible target for Lyme disease treatments. However, a lack of structural information available for P66 has hindered attempts to design medications to target the protein. Therefore, this study attempted to find methods for expressing and purifying P66 in quantities that can be used for structural studies. It was found that by using the PelB signal sequence, His-tagged P66 could be directed to the outer membrane of Escherichia coli, as confirmed by an anti-His Western blot. Further attempts to optimize P66 expression in the outer membrane were made, pending verification via Western blotting. The ability to direct P66 to the outer membrane using the PelB signal sequence is a promising first step in determining the overall structure of P66, but further work is needed before P66 is ready for large-scale purification for structural studies.

ContributorsRamirez, Christopher Nicholas (Author) / Fromme, Petra (Thesis director) / Hansen, Debra (Committee member) / Department of Physics (Contributor) / School of Molecular Sciences (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2021-05