Matching Items (6)
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- All Subjects: Dynamics
- All Subjects: Multilevel Modeling
- All Subjects: Social sciences--Statistical methods.
- Creators: Mackinnon, David P
- Creators: Amazeen, Polemnia
Description
Random Forests is a statistical learning method which has been proposed for propensity score estimation models that involve complex interactions, nonlinear relationships, or both of the covariates. In this dissertation I conducted a simulation study to examine the effects of three Random Forests model specifications in propensity score analysis. The results suggested that, depending on the nature of data, optimal specification of (1) decision rules to select the covariate and its split value in a Classification Tree, (2) the number of covariates randomly sampled for selection, and (3) methods of estimating Random Forests propensity scores could potentially produce an unbiased average treatment effect estimate after propensity scores weighting by the odds adjustment. Compared to the logistic regression estimation model using the true propensity score model, Random Forests had an additional advantage in producing unbiased estimated standard error and correct statistical inference of the average treatment effect. The relationship between the balance on the covariates' means and the bias of average treatment effect estimate was examined both within and between conditions of the simulation. Within conditions, across repeated samples there was no noticeable correlation between the covariates' mean differences and the magnitude of bias of average treatment effect estimate for the covariates that were imbalanced before adjustment. Between conditions, small mean differences of covariates after propensity score adjustment were not sensitive enough to identify the optimal Random Forests model specification for propensity score analysis.
ContributorsCham, Hei Ning (Author) / Tein, Jenn-Yun (Thesis advisor) / Enders, Stephen G (Thesis advisor) / Enders, Craig K. (Committee member) / Mackinnon, David P (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2013
Description
With improvements in technology, intensive longitudinal studies that permit the investigation of daily and weekly cycles in behavior have increased exponentially over the past few decades. Traditionally, when data have been collected on two variables over time, multivariate time series approaches that remove trends, cycles, and serial dependency have been used. These analyses permit the study of the relationship between random shocks (perturbations) in the presumed causal series and changes in the outcome series, but do not permit the study of the relationships between cycles. Liu and West (2016) proposed a multilevel approach that permitted the study of potential between subject relationships between features of the cycles in two series (e.g., amplitude). However, I show that the application of the Liu and West approach is restricted to a small set of features and types of relationships between the series. Several authors (e.g., Boker & Graham, 1998) proposed a connected mass-spring model that appears to permit modeling of more general cyclic relationships. I showed that the undamped connected mass-spring model is also limited and may be unidentified. To test the severity of the restrictions of the motion trajectories producible by the undamped connected mass-spring model I mathematically derived their connection to the force equations of the undamped connected mass-spring system. The mathematical solution describes the domain of the trajectory pairs that are producible by the undamped connected mass-spring model. The set of producible trajectory pairs is highly restricted, and this restriction sets major limitations on the application of the connected mass-spring model to psychological data. I used a simulation to demonstrate that even if a pair of psychological time-varying variables behaved exactly like two masses in an undamped connected mass-spring system, the connected mass-spring model would not yield adequate parameter estimates. My simulation probed the performance of the connected mass-spring model as a function of several aspects of data quality including number of subjects, series length, sampling rate relative to the cycle, and measurement error in the data. The findings can be extended to damped and nonlinear connected mass-spring systems.
ContributorsMartynova, Elena (M.A.) (Author) / West, Stephen G. (Thesis advisor) / Amazeen, Polemnia (Committee member) / Tein, Jenn-Yun (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2019
Description
The parent-child relationship is one of the earliest and most formative experiences for social and emotional development. Synchrony, defined as the rhythmic patterning and quality of mutual affect, engagement, and physiological attunement, has been identified as a critical quality of a healthy mother-infant relationship. Although the salience of the quality of family interaction has been well-established, clinical and developmental research has varied widely in methods for observing and identifying influential aspects of synchrony. In addition, modern dynamic perspectives presume multiple factors converge in a complex system influenced by both nature and nurture, in which individual traits, behavior, and environment are inextricably intertwined within the system of dyadic relational units.
The present study aimed to directly examine and compare synchrony from three distinct approaches: observed microanalytic behavioral sequences, observed global dyadic qualities, and physiological attunement between mothers and infants. The sample consisted of 323 Mexican American mothers and their infants followed from the third trimester of pregnancy through the first year of life. Mothers were interviewed prenatally, observed at a home visit at 12 weeks postpartum, and were finally interviewed for child social-emotional problems at child age 12 months. Specific aspects of synchrony (microanalytical, global, and physiological) were examined separately as well as together to identify comparable and divergent qualities within the construct.
Findings indicated that multiple perspectives on synchrony are best examined together, but as independent qualities to account for varying characteristics captured by divergent systems. Dyadic relationships characterized by higher reciprocity, more time and flexibility in mutual non-negative engagement, and less tendency to enter negative or unengaged states were associated with fewer child social-emotional problems at child age 12 months. Lower infant cortisol was associated with higher levels of externalizing problems, and smaller differences between mother and child cortisol were associated with higher levels of child dysregulation. Results underscore the complex but important nature of synchrony as a salient mechanism underlying the social-emotional growth of children. A mutually engaged, non-negative, and reciprocal environment lays the foundation for the successful social and self-regulatory competence of infants in the first year of life.
The present study aimed to directly examine and compare synchrony from three distinct approaches: observed microanalytic behavioral sequences, observed global dyadic qualities, and physiological attunement between mothers and infants. The sample consisted of 323 Mexican American mothers and their infants followed from the third trimester of pregnancy through the first year of life. Mothers were interviewed prenatally, observed at a home visit at 12 weeks postpartum, and were finally interviewed for child social-emotional problems at child age 12 months. Specific aspects of synchrony (microanalytical, global, and physiological) were examined separately as well as together to identify comparable and divergent qualities within the construct.
Findings indicated that multiple perspectives on synchrony are best examined together, but as independent qualities to account for varying characteristics captured by divergent systems. Dyadic relationships characterized by higher reciprocity, more time and flexibility in mutual non-negative engagement, and less tendency to enter negative or unengaged states were associated with fewer child social-emotional problems at child age 12 months. Lower infant cortisol was associated with higher levels of externalizing problems, and smaller differences between mother and child cortisol were associated with higher levels of child dysregulation. Results underscore the complex but important nature of synchrony as a salient mechanism underlying the social-emotional growth of children. A mutually engaged, non-negative, and reciprocal environment lays the foundation for the successful social and self-regulatory competence of infants in the first year of life.
ContributorsCoburn, Shayna Skelley (Author) / Crnic, Keith A (Thesis advisor) / Dishion, Thomas J (Committee member) / Mackinnon, David P (Committee member) / Luecken, Linda J. (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2015
Description
The comparison of between- versus within-person relations addresses a central issue in psychological research regarding whether group-level relations among variables generalize to individual group members. Between- and within-person effects may differ in magnitude as well as direction, and contextual multilevel models can accommodate this difference. Contextual multilevel models have been explicated mostly for cross-sectional data, but they can also be applied to longitudinal data where level-1 effects represent within-person relations and level-2 effects represent between-person relations. With longitudinal data, estimating the contextual effect allows direct evaluation of whether between-person and within-person effects differ. Furthermore, these models, unlike single-level models, permit individual differences by allowing within-person slopes to vary across individuals. This study examined the statistical performance of the contextual model with a random slope for longitudinal within-person fluctuation data.
A Monte Carlo simulation was used to generate data based on the contextual multilevel model, where sample size, effect size, and intraclass correlation (ICC) of the predictor variable were varied. The effects of simulation factors on parameter bias, parameter variability, and standard error accuracy were assessed. Parameter estimates were in general unbiased. Power to detect the slope variance and contextual effect was over 80% for most conditions, except some of the smaller sample size conditions. Type I error rates for the contextual effect were also high for some of the smaller sample size conditions. Conclusions and future directions are discussed.
A Monte Carlo simulation was used to generate data based on the contextual multilevel model, where sample size, effect size, and intraclass correlation (ICC) of the predictor variable were varied. The effects of simulation factors on parameter bias, parameter variability, and standard error accuracy were assessed. Parameter estimates were in general unbiased. Power to detect the slope variance and contextual effect was over 80% for most conditions, except some of the smaller sample size conditions. Type I error rates for the contextual effect were also high for some of the smaller sample size conditions. Conclusions and future directions are discussed.
ContributorsWurpts, Ingrid Carlson (Author) / Mackinnon, David P (Thesis advisor) / West, Stephen G. (Committee member) / Grimm, Kevin J. (Committee member) / Suk, Hye Won (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2016
Description
Mediation analysis is a statistical approach that examines the effect of a treatment (e.g., prevention program) on an outcome (e.g., substance use) achieved by targeting and changing one or more intervening variables (e.g., peer drug use norms). The increased use of prevention intervention programs with outcomes measured at multiple time points following the intervention requires multilevel modeling techniques to account for clustering in the data. Estimating multilevel mediation models, in which all the variables are measured at individual level (Level 1), poses several challenges to researchers. The first challenge is to conceptualize a multilevel mediation model by clarifying the underlying statistical assumptions and implications of those assumptions on cluster-level (Level-2) covariance structure. A second challenge is that variables measured at Level 1 potentially contain both between- and within-cluster variation making interpretation of multilevel analysis difficult. As a result, multilevel mediation analyses may yield coefficient estimates that are composites of coefficient estimates at different levels if proper centering is not used. This dissertation addresses these two challenges. Study 1 discusses the concept of a correctly specified multilevel mediation model by examining the underlying statistical assumptions and implication of those assumptions on Level-2 covariance structure. Further, Study 1 presents analytical results showing algebraic relationships between the population parameters in a correctly specified multilevel mediation model. Study 2 extends previous work on centering in multilevel mediation analysis. First, different centering methods in multilevel analysis including centering within cluster with the cluster mean as a Level-2 predictor of intercept (CWC2) are discussed. Next, application of the CWC2 strategy to accommodate multilevel mediation models is explained. It is shown that the CWC2 centering strategy separates the between- and within-cluster mediated effects. Next, Study 2 discusses assumptions underlying a correctly specified CWC2 multilevel mediation model and defines between- and within-cluster mediated effects. In addition, analytical results for the algebraic relationships between the population parameters in a CWC2 multilevel mediation model are presented. Finally, Study 2 shows results of a simulation study conducted to verify derived algebraic relationships empirically.
ContributorsTofighi, Davood (Author) / West, Stephen G. (Thesis advisor) / Mackinnon, David P (Thesis advisor) / Enders, Craig C (Committee member) / Millsap, Roger E (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2010
Description
A dynamical approach is used to avoid isolating systems and instead view systems as interacting together. The current study applied a dynamical approach to heart rate variability and personality. There were two main research questions that this study sought to answer with a dynamical analysis of heart rate variability and personality: “Can we listen to a heartbeat and draw connections to behavior and personality?” and “Is dynamical analysis more effective than traditional analysis at finding correlations between heart rate variability and personality?” To answer these questions a dynamical analysis of heart rate variability was conducted (detrended fluctuation analysis; DFA) along with traditional analysis (standard deviations of NN intervals, SDNN, and root mean squared of successive deviations, RMSSD) and then correlations between heart rate variability measures and personality traits from the Big Five Inventory, Positive and Negative Affect schedule, and State-Trait Anxiety Inventory were examined. Data for this study came from the Rapid Automatic & Adaptive Model for Performance Prediction (RAAMP2) Dataset that was part of The Multimodal Objective Sensing to Assess Individuals with Context (MOSAIC) project. There were no statistically significant correlations between heart rate variability and personality. However, there were notable correlations between extraversion and SDNN and RMSSD and between positive affect and SDNN and RMSSD. We found that SDNN and RMSSD were more closely correlated to each other compared to DFA to either measure. This suggests that DFA can provide information that SDNN and RMSSD do not. Future research can explore dynamic analysis of heart rate variability and other nested systems.
ContributorsBrown, Brent (Author) / Amazeen, Polemnia (Thesis director) / Corbin, William (Committee member) / Amazeen, Eric (Committee member) / Danvers, Alexander (Committee member) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor) / Department of Psychology (Contributor)
Created2021-12