Matching Items (14)
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- All Subjects: Hydrologic sciences
- All Subjects: Wind power
- Creators: Huang, Huei-Ping
- Creators: Clarke, Amanda
Description
The implications of a changing climate have a profound impact on human life, society, and policy making. The need for accurate climate prediction becomes increasingly important as we better understand these implications. Currently, the most widely used climate prediction relies on the synthesis of climate model simulations organized by the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP); these simulations are ensemble-averaged to construct projections for the 21st century climate. However, a significant degree of bias and variability in the model simulations for the 20th century climate is well-known at both global and regional scales. Based on that insight, this study provides an alternative approach for constructing climate projections that incorporates knowledge of model bias. This approach is demonstrated to be a viable alternative which can be easily implemented by water resource managers for potentially more accurate projections. Tests of the new approach are provided on a global scale with an emphasis on semiarid regional studies for their particular vulnerability to water resource changes, using both the former CMIP Phase 3 (CMIP3) and current Phase 5 (CMIP5) model archives. This investigation is accompanied by a detailed analysis of the dynamical processes and water budget to understand the behaviors and sources of model biases. Sensitivity studies of selected CMIP5 models are also performed with an atmospheric component model by testing the relationship between climate change forcings and model simulated response. The information derived from each study is used to determine the progressive quality of coupled climate models in simulating the global water cycle by rigorously investigating sources of model bias related to the moisture budget. As such, the conclusions of this project are highly relevant to model development and potentially may be used to further improve climate projections.
ContributorsBaker, Noel C (Author) / Huang, Huei-Ping (Thesis advisor) / Trimble, Steve (Committee member) / Anderson, James (Committee member) / Clarke, Amanda (Committee member) / Calhoun, Ronald (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2013
Description
This thesis outlines the development of a vector retrieval technique, based on data assimilation, for a coherent Doppler LIDAR (Light Detection and Ranging). A detailed analysis of the Optimal Interpolation (OI) technique for vector retrieval is presented. Through several modifications to the OI technique, it is shown that the modified technique results in significant improvement in velocity retrieval accuracy. These modifications include changes to innovation covariance portioning, covariance binning, and analysis increment calculation. It is observed that the modified technique is able to make retrievals with better accuracy, preserves local information better, and compares well with tower measurements. In order to study the error of representativeness and vector retrieval error, a lidar simulator was constructed. Using the lidar simulator a thorough sensitivity analysis of the lidar measurement process and vector retrieval is carried out. The error of representativeness as a function of scales of motion and sensitivity of vector retrieval to look angle is quantified. Using the modified OI technique, study of nocturnal flow in Owens' Valley, CA was carried out to identify and understand uncharacteristic events on the night of March 27th 2006. Observations from 1030 UTC to 1230 UTC (0230 hr local time to 0430 hr local time) on March 27 2006 are presented. Lidar observations show complex and uncharacteristic flows such as sudden bursts of westerly cross-valley wind mixing with the dominant up-valley wind. Model results from Coupled Ocean/Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System (COAMPS®) and other in-situ instrumentations are used to corroborate and complement these observations. The modified OI technique is used to identify uncharacteristic and extreme flow events at a wind development site. Estimates of turbulence and shear from this technique are compared to tower measurements. A formulation for equivalent wind speed in the presence of variations in wind speed and direction, combined with shear is developed and used to determine wind energy content in presence of turbulence.
ContributorsChoukulkar, Aditya (Author) / Calhoun, Ronald (Thesis advisor) / Mahalov, Alex (Committee member) / Kostelich, Eric (Committee member) / Huang, Huei-Ping (Committee member) / Phelan, Patrick (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2013
Description
Ten regional climate models (RCMs) and atmosphere-ocean generalized model parings from the North America Regional Climate Change Assessment Program were used to estimate the shift of extreme precipitation due to climate change using present-day and future-day climate scenarios. RCMs emulate winter storms and one-day duration events at the sub-regional level. Annual maximum series were derived for each model pairing, each modeling period; and for annual and winter seasons. The reliability ensemble average (REA) method was used to qualify each RCM annual maximum series to reproduce historical records and approximate average predictions, because there are no future records. These series determined (a) shifts in extreme precipitation frequencies and magnitudes, and (b) shifts in parameters during modeling periods. The REA method demonstrated that the winter season had lower REA factors than the annual season. For the winter season the RCM pairing of the Hadley regional Model 3 and the Geophysical Fluid-Dynamics Laboratory atmospheric-land generalized model had the lowest REA factors. However, in replicating present-day climate, the pairing of the Abdus Salam International Center for Theoretical Physics' Regional Climate Model Version 3 with the Geophysical Fluid-Dynamics Laboratory atmospheric-land generalized model was superior. Shifts of extreme precipitation in the 24-hour event were measured using precipitation magnitude for each frequency in the annual maximum series, and the difference frequency curve in the generalized extreme-value-function parameters. The average trend of all RCM pairings implied no significant shift in the winter annual maximum series, however the REA-selected models showed an increase in annual-season precipitation extremes: 0.37 inches for the 100-year return period and for the winter season suggested approximately 0.57 inches for the same return period. Shifts of extreme precipitation were estimated using predictions 70 years into the future based on RCMs. Although these models do not provide climate information for the intervening 70 year period, the models provide an assertion on the behavior of future climate. The shift in extreme precipitation may be significant in the frequency distribution function, and will vary depending on each model-pairing condition. The proposed methodology addresses the many uncertainties associated with the current methodologies dealing with extreme precipitation.
ContributorsRiaño, Alejandro (Author) / Mays, Larry W. (Thesis advisor) / Vivoni, Enrique (Committee member) / Huang, Huei-Ping (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2013
Description
Climate change has been one of the major issues of global economic and social concerns in the past decade. To quantitatively predict global climate change, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) of the United Nations have organized a multi-national effort to use global atmosphere-ocean models to project anthropogenically induced climate changes in the 21st century. The computer simulations performed with those models and archived by the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project - Phase 5 (CMIP5) form the most comprehensive quantitative basis for the prediction of global environmental changes on decadal-to-centennial time scales. While the CMIP5 archives have been widely used for policy making, the inherent biases in the models have not been systematically examined. The main objective of this study is to validate the CMIP5 simulations of the 20th century climate with observations to quantify the biases and uncertainties in state-of-the-art climate models. Specifically, this work focuses on three major features in the atmosphere: the jet streams over the North Pacific and Atlantic Oceans and the low level jet (LLJ) stream over central North America which affects the weather in the United States, and the near-surface wind field over North America which is relevant to energy applications. The errors in the model simulations of those features are systematically quantified and the uncertainties in future predictions are assessed for stakeholders to use in climate applications. Additional atmospheric model simulations are performed to determine the sources of the errors in climate models. The results reject a popular idea that the errors in the sea surface temperature due to an inaccurate ocean circulation contributes to the errors in major atmospheric jet streams.
ContributorsKulkarni, Sujay (Author) / Huang, Huei-Ping (Thesis advisor) / Calhoun, Ronald (Committee member) / Peet, Yulia (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2014
Description
With a ground-based Doppler lidar on the upwind side of a wind farm in the Tehachapi Pass of California, radial wind velocity measurements were collected for repeating sector sweeps, scanning up to 10 kilometers away. This region consisted of complex terrain, with the scans made between mountains. The dataset was utilized for techniques being studied for short-term forecasting of wind power by correlating changes in energy content and of turbulence intensity by tracking spatial variance, in the wind ahead of a wind farm. A ramp event was also captured and its propagation was tracked.
Orthogonal horizontal wind vectors were retrieved from the radial velocity using a sector Velocity Azimuth Display method. Streamlines were plotted to determine the potential sites for a correlation of upstream wind speed with wind speed at downstream locations near the wind farm. A "virtual wind turbine" was "placed" in locations along the streamline by using the time-series velocity data at the location as the input to a modeled wind turbine, to determine the extractable energy content at that location. The relationship between this time-dependent energy content upstream and near the wind farm was studied. By correlating the energy content with each upstream location based on a time shift estimated according to advection at the mean wind speed, several fits were evaluated. A prediction of the downstream energy content was produced by shifting the power output in time and applying the best-fit function. This method made predictions of the power near the wind farm several minutes in advance. Predictions were also made up to an hour in advance for a large ramp event. The Magnitude Absolute Error and Standard Deviation are presented for the predictions based on each selected upstream location.
Orthogonal horizontal wind vectors were retrieved from the radial velocity using a sector Velocity Azimuth Display method. Streamlines were plotted to determine the potential sites for a correlation of upstream wind speed with wind speed at downstream locations near the wind farm. A "virtual wind turbine" was "placed" in locations along the streamline by using the time-series velocity data at the location as the input to a modeled wind turbine, to determine the extractable energy content at that location. The relationship between this time-dependent energy content upstream and near the wind farm was studied. By correlating the energy content with each upstream location based on a time shift estimated according to advection at the mean wind speed, several fits were evaluated. A prediction of the downstream energy content was produced by shifting the power output in time and applying the best-fit function. This method made predictions of the power near the wind farm several minutes in advance. Predictions were also made up to an hour in advance for a large ramp event. The Magnitude Absolute Error and Standard Deviation are presented for the predictions based on each selected upstream location.
ContributorsMagerman, Beth (Author) / Calhoun, Ronald (Thesis advisor) / Peet, Yulia (Committee member) / Huang, Huei-Ping (Committee member) / Krishnamurthy, Raghavendra (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2014
Description
This doctoral thesis investigates the predictability characteristics of floods and flash floods by coupling high resolution precipitation products to a distributed hydrologic model. The research hypotheses are tested at multiple watersheds in the Colorado Front Range (CFR) undergoing warm-season precipitation. Rainfall error structures are expected to propagate into hydrologic simulations with added uncertainties by model parameters and initial conditions. Specifically, the following science questions are addressed: (1) What is the utility of Quantitative Precipitation Estimates (QPE) for high resolution hydrologic forecasts in mountain watersheds of the CFR?, (2) How does the rainfall-reflectivity relation determine the magnitude of errors when radar observations are used for flood forecasts?, and (3) What are the spatiotemporal limits of flood forecasting in mountain basins when radar nowcasts are used into a distributed hydrological model?. The methodology consists of QPE evaluations at the site (i.e., rain gauge location), basin-average and regional scales, and Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts (QPF) assessment through regional grid-to-grid verification techniques and ensemble basin-averaged time series. The corresponding hydrologic responses that include outlet discharges, distributed runoff maps, and streamflow time series at internal channel locations, are used in light of observed and/or reference data to diagnose the suitability of fusing precipitation forecasts into a distributed model operating at multiple catchments. Results reveal that radar and multisensor QPEs lead to an improved hydrologic performance compared to simulations driven with rain gauge data only. In addition, hydrologic performances attained by satellite products preserve the fundamental properties of basin responses, including a simple scaling relation between the relative spatial variability of runoff and its magnitude. Overall, the spatial variations contained in gridded QPEs add value for warm-season flood forecasting in mountain basins, with sparse data even if those products contain some biases. These results are encouraging and open new avenues for forecasting in regions with limited access and sparse observations. Regional comparisons of different reflectivity -rainfall (Z-R) relations during three summer seasons, illustrated significant rainfall variability across the region. Consistently, hydrologic errors introduced by the distinct Z-R relations, are significant and proportional (in the log-log space) to errors in precipitation estimations and stream flow magnitude. The use of operational Z-R relations without prior calibration may lead to wrong estimation of precipitation, runoff magnitude and increased flood forecasting errors. This suggests that site-specific Z-R relations, prior to forecasting procedures, are desirable in complex terrain regions. Nowcasting experiments show the limits of flood forecasting and its dependence functions of lead time and basin scale. Across the majority of the basins, flood forecasting skill decays with lead time, but the functional relation depends on the interactions between watershed properties and rainfall characteristics. Both precipitation and flood forecasting skills are noticeably reduced for lead times greater than 30 minutes. Scale dependence of hydrologic forecasting errors demonstrates reduced predictability at intermediate-size basins, the typical scale of convective storm systems. Overall, the fusion of high resolution radar nowcasts and the convenient parallel capabilities of the distributed hydrologic model provide an efficient framework for generating accurate real-time flood forecasts suitable for operational environments.
ContributorsMoreno Ramirez, Hernan (Author) / Vivoni, Enrique R. (Thesis advisor) / Ruddell, Benjamin L. (Committee member) / Gochis, David J. (Committee member) / Mays, Larry W. (Committee member) / Huang, Huei-Ping (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2012
Description
Understanding and predicting climate changes at the urban scale have been an important yet challenging problem in environmental engineering. The lack of reliable long-term observations at the urban scale makes it difficult to even assess past climate changes. Numerical modeling plays an important role in filling the gap of observation and predicting future changes. Numerical studies on the climatic effect of desert urbanization have focused on basic meteorological fields such as temperature and wind. For desert cities, urban expansion can lead to substantial changes in the local production of wind-blown dust, which have implications for air quality and public health. This study expands the existing framework of numerical simulation for desert urbanization to include the computation of dust generation related to urban land-use changes. This is accomplished by connecting a suite of numerical models, including a meso-scale meteorological model, a land-surface model, an urban canopy model, and a turbulence model, to produce the key parameters that control the surface fluxes of wind-blown dust. Those models generate the near-surface turbulence intensity, soil moisture, and land-surface properties, which are used to determine the dust fluxes from a set of laboratory-based empirical formulas. This framework is applied to a series of simulations for the desert city of Erbil across a period of rapid urbanization. The changes in surface dust fluxes associated with urbanization are quantified. An analysis of the model output further reveals the dependence of surface dust fluxes on local meteorological conditions. Future applications of the models to environmental prediction are discussed.
ContributorsTahir, Sherzad Tahseen (Author) / Huang, Huei-Ping (Thesis advisor) / Phelan, Patrick (Committee member) / Herrmann, Marcus (Committee member) / Chen, Kangping (Committee member) / Clarke, Amanda (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2019
Numerical simulation of environmental flow over urban landscape for applications to renewable energy
Description
Development of renewable energy solutions has become a major interest among environmental organizations and governments around the world due to an increase in energy consumption and global warming. One fast growing renewable energy solution is the application of wind energy in cities. To qualitative and quantitative predict wind turbine performance in urban areas, CFD simulation is performed on real-life urban geometry and wind velocity profiles are evaluated. Two geometries in Arizona is selected in this thesis to demonstrate the influence of building heights; one of the simulation models, ASU campus, is relatively low rise and without significant tall buildings; the other model, the downtown phoenix model, are high-rise and with greater building height difference. The content of this thesis focuses on using RANS computational fluid dynamics approach to simulate wind acceleration phenomenon in two complex geometries, ASU campus and Phoenix downtown model. Additionally, acceleration ratio and locations are predicted, the results are then used to calculate the best location for small wind turbine installments.
ContributorsYing, Xiaoyan (Author) / Huang, Huei-Ping (Thesis advisor) / Peet, Yulia (Committee member) / Herrmann, Marcus (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2015
Description
ABSTRACT
The Sentinel-Arlington Volcanic Field (SAVF) is the Sentinel Plains lava field and associated volcanic edifices of late Cenozoic alkali olivine basaltic lava flows and minor tephra deposits near the Gila Bend and Painted Rock Mountains, 65 km-100km southwest of Phoenix, Arizona. The SAVF covers ~600 km2 and consists of 21+ volcanic centers, primarily low shield volcanoes ranging from 4-6 km in diameter and 30-200 m in height. The SAVF represents plains-style volcanism, an emplacement style and effusion rate intermediate between flood volcanism and large shield-building volcanism. Because of these characteristics, SAVF is a good analogue to small-volume effusive volcanic centers on Mars, such as those seen the southern flank of Pavonis Mons and in the Tempe Terra region of Mars. The eruptive history of the volcanic field is established through detailed geologic map supplemented by geochemical, paleomagnetic, and geochronological analysis.
Paleomagnetic analyses were completed on 473 oriented core samples from 58 sites. Mean inclination and declination directions were calculated from 8-12 samples at each site. Fifty sites revealed well-grouped natural remanent magnetization vectors after applying alternating field demagnetization. Thirty-nine sites had reversed polarity, eleven had normal polarity. Fifteen unique paleosecular variation inclination and declination directions were identified, six were represented by more than one site with resultant vectors that correlated within a 95% confidence interval. Four reversed sites were radiometrically dated to the Matuyama Chron with ages ranging from 1.08 ± 0.15 Ma to 2.37 ± 0.02 Ma; and one normal polarity site was dated to the Olduvai normal excursion at 1.91 ± 0.59 Ma. Paleomagnetic correlations within a 95% confidence interval were used to extrapolate radiogenic dates. Results reveal 3-5 eruptive stages over ~1.5 Ma in the early Pleistocene and that the SAVF dammed and possibly diverted the lower Gila River multiple times. Preliminary modeling of the median clast size of the terrace deposits suggests a maximum discharge of ~11300 cms (~400,000 cfs) was necessary to transport observed sediment load, which is larger than the historically recorded discharge of the modern Gila River.
The Sentinel-Arlington Volcanic Field (SAVF) is the Sentinel Plains lava field and associated volcanic edifices of late Cenozoic alkali olivine basaltic lava flows and minor tephra deposits near the Gila Bend and Painted Rock Mountains, 65 km-100km southwest of Phoenix, Arizona. The SAVF covers ~600 km2 and consists of 21+ volcanic centers, primarily low shield volcanoes ranging from 4-6 km in diameter and 30-200 m in height. The SAVF represents plains-style volcanism, an emplacement style and effusion rate intermediate between flood volcanism and large shield-building volcanism. Because of these characteristics, SAVF is a good analogue to small-volume effusive volcanic centers on Mars, such as those seen the southern flank of Pavonis Mons and in the Tempe Terra region of Mars. The eruptive history of the volcanic field is established through detailed geologic map supplemented by geochemical, paleomagnetic, and geochronological analysis.
Paleomagnetic analyses were completed on 473 oriented core samples from 58 sites. Mean inclination and declination directions were calculated from 8-12 samples at each site. Fifty sites revealed well-grouped natural remanent magnetization vectors after applying alternating field demagnetization. Thirty-nine sites had reversed polarity, eleven had normal polarity. Fifteen unique paleosecular variation inclination and declination directions were identified, six were represented by more than one site with resultant vectors that correlated within a 95% confidence interval. Four reversed sites were radiometrically dated to the Matuyama Chron with ages ranging from 1.08 ± 0.15 Ma to 2.37 ± 0.02 Ma; and one normal polarity site was dated to the Olduvai normal excursion at 1.91 ± 0.59 Ma. Paleomagnetic correlations within a 95% confidence interval were used to extrapolate radiogenic dates. Results reveal 3-5 eruptive stages over ~1.5 Ma in the early Pleistocene and that the SAVF dammed and possibly diverted the lower Gila River multiple times. Preliminary modeling of the median clast size of the terrace deposits suggests a maximum discharge of ~11300 cms (~400,000 cfs) was necessary to transport observed sediment load, which is larger than the historically recorded discharge of the modern Gila River.
ContributorsCave, Shelby Renee (Author) / Clarke, Amanda (Thesis advisor) / Burt, Donald (Committee member) / Reynolds, Stephen (Committee member) / Semken, Steven (Committee member) / Schmeeckle, Mark (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2015
Description
For the increasing concerns of influence on environment by fossil-electricity generation, application of renewable energy becomes one of the most focused issues in society. Based on the limitation on urban environment, wind turbines, which can be mounted on rooftop or between buildings, are regarded as a feasible way for wind energy generation. This study presents wind flow simulations in a large-scale environment with certain dimension buildings. Different inlet velocity boundary conditions are tested firstly, and the non-uniform inlet boundary condition shows better agreement with realistic situation. Turbulence intensity is set to be 10% for comparison consistency. The k-epsilon turbulence model is regarded as a better simulation for this certain condition. After that, three different structures, which include single building, pristine double building and modified circular gap double building systems, are tested in this environment condition. The result shows 18.8% velocity increasing on the top of single building system. Pristine double building systems are tested with 4 different gap distances, and building with 10 meters gap achieved the best velocity condition, which 32.8% velocity increasing and 11.8% improvement comparing to single building system, respectively. But the location of maximum velocity moves to the gap and the maximum velocity on the rooftop of double building system is approximately 5.1% lower than single building system. Based on previous study, modified circular gap double building system is created with 10 meters gap. Comparing result with single building system, modified circular gap system achieves higher improvement for wind flow, whose improvement of velocity increasing in the gap and on the rooftop of building are 47.1% and 3.0%, respectively. As a result, the modified circular gap double building can be regarded as a high efficiency system of environmental wind flow over buildings for renewable energy system.
ContributorsLi, Guoyi (Author) / Huang, Huei-Ping (Thesis advisor) / Lee, Taewoo (Committee member) / Forzani, Erica (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2015