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Climate and land use change are projected to threaten biodiversity over the coming century. However, the combined effects of these threats on biodiversity and the capacity of current conservation networks to protect species' habitat are not well understood. The goals of this study were to evaluate the effect of climate

Climate and land use change are projected to threaten biodiversity over the coming century. However, the combined effects of these threats on biodiversity and the capacity of current conservation networks to protect species' habitat are not well understood. The goals of this study were to evaluate the effect of climate change and urban development on vegetation distribution in a Mediterranean-type ecosystem; to identify the primary source of uncertainty in suitable habitat predictions; and to evaluate how well conservation areas protect future habitat in the Southwest ecoregion of the California Floristic Province. I used a consensus-based modeling approach combining three different species distribution models to predict current and future suitable habitat for 19 plant species representing different plant functional types (PFT) defined by fire-response (obligate seeders, resprouting shrubs), and life forms (herbs, subshurbs). I also examined the response of species grouped by range sizes (large, small). I used two climate models, two emission scenarios, two thresholds, and high-resolution (90m resolution) environmental data to create a range of potential scenarios. I evaluated the effectiveness of an existing conservation network to protect suitable habitat for rare species in light of climate and land use change. The results indicate that the area of suitable habitat for each species varied depending on the climate model, emission scenario, and threshold combination. The suitable habitat for up to four species could disappear from the ecoregion, while suitable habitat for up to 15 other species could decrease under climate change conditions. The centroid of the species' suitable environmental conditions could shift up to 440 km. Large net gains in suitable habitat were predicted for a few species. The suitable habitat area for herbs has a small response to climate change, while obligate seeders could be the most affected PFT. The results indicate that the other two PFTs gain a considerable amount of suitable habitat area. Several rare species could lose suitable habitat area inside designated conservation areas while gaining suitable habitat area outside. Climate change is predicted to be more important than urban development as a driver of habitat loss for vegetation in this region in the coming century. These results indicate that regional analyses of this type are useful and necessary to understand the dynamics of drivers of change at the regional scale and to inform decision making at this scale.
ContributorsBeltrán Villarreal, Bray de Jesús (Author) / Franklin, Janet (Thesis advisor) / Fenichel, Eli P (Committee member) / Kinzig, Ann P (Committee member) / Collins, James P. (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2012
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Description
Climate change has the potential to affect vegetation via changes in temperature and precipitation. In the semi-arid southwestern United States, heightened temperatures will likely lead to accelerated groundwater pumping to meet human needs, and altered storm patterns may lead to changes in flood regimes. All of these hydrologic changes have

Climate change has the potential to affect vegetation via changes in temperature and precipitation. In the semi-arid southwestern United States, heightened temperatures will likely lead to accelerated groundwater pumping to meet human needs, and altered storm patterns may lead to changes in flood regimes. All of these hydrologic changes have the potential to alter riparian vegetation. This research, consisting of two papers, examines relationships between hydrology and riparian vegetation along the Verde River in central Arizona, from applied and theoretical perspectives. One paper investigates how dominance of tree and shrub species and cover of certain functional groups change along hydrologic gradients. The other paper uses the Verde River flora along with that river's flood and moisture gradients to answer the question of whether functional groups can be defined universally. Drying of the Verde River would lead to a shift from cottonwood-willow streamside forest to more drought adapted desert willow or saltcedar, a decline in streamside marsh species, and decreased species richness. Effects drying will have on one dominant forest tree, velvet ash, is unclear. Increase in the frequency of large floods would potentially increase forest density and decrease average tree age and diameter. Correlations between functional traits of Verde River plants and hydrologic gradients are consistent with "leaf economics," or the axis of resource capture, use, and release, as the primary strategic trade-off for plants. This corresponds to the competitor-stress tolerator gradient in Grime's life history strategy theory. Plant height was also a strong indicator of hydrologic condition, though it is not clear from the literature if plant height is independent enough of leaf characteristics on a global scale to be considered a second axis. Though the ecohydrologic relationships are approached from different perspectives, the results of the two papers are consistent if interpreted together. The species that are currently dominant in the near-channel Verde River floodplain are tall, broad-leaf trees, and the species that are predicted to become more dominant in the case of the river drying are shorter trees or shrubs with smaller leaves. These results have implications for river and water management, as well as theoretical ecology.
ContributorsHazelton, Andrea Florence (Author) / Stromberg, Juliet C. (Thesis advisor) / Schmeeckle, Mark W (Committee member) / Franklin, Janet (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2011
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Description
Often, when thinking of cities we envision designed landscapes, where people regulate everything from water to weeds, ultimately resulting in an ecosystem decoupled from biophysical processes. It is unclear, however, what happens when the people regulating these extensively managed landscapes come under stress, whether from unexpected economic fluctuations or from

Often, when thinking of cities we envision designed landscapes, where people regulate everything from water to weeds, ultimately resulting in an ecosystem decoupled from biophysical processes. It is unclear, however, what happens when the people regulating these extensively managed landscapes come under stress, whether from unexpected economic fluctuations or from changing climate norms. The overarching question of my dissertation research was: How does urban vegetation change in response to human behavior? To answer this question, I conducted multiscale research in an arid urban ecosystem as well as in a virtual desert city. I used a combination of long-term data and agent-based modeling to examine changes in vegetation across a range of measures influenced by biophysical, climate, institutional, and socioeconomic drivers. At the regional scale, total plant species diversity increased from 2000 to 2010, while species composition became increasingly homogeneous in urban and agricultural areas. At the residential scale, I investigated the effects of biophysical and socioeconomic drivers – the Great Recession of 2007-2010 in particular – on changing residential yard vegetation in Phoenix, AZ. Socioeconomic drivers affected plant composition and increasing richness, but the housing boom from 2000 through 2005 had a stronger influence on vegetation change than the subsequent recession. Surprisingly, annual plant species remained coupled to winter precipitation despite my expectation that their dynamics might be driven by socioeconomic fluctuations. In a modeling experiment, I examined the relative strength of psychological, social, and governance influences on large-scale urban land cover in a desert city. Model results suggested that social norms may be strong enough to lead to large-scale conversion to low water use residential landscaping, and governance may be unnecessary to catalyze residential landscape conversion under the pressure of extreme drought conditions. Overall, my dissertation research showed that urban vegetation is dynamic, even under the presumably stabilizing influence of human management activities. Increasing climate pressure, unexpected socioeconomic disturbances, growing urban populations, and shifting policies all contribute to urban vegetation dynamics. Incorporating these findings into planning policies will contribute to the sustainable management of urban ecosystems.
ContributorsRipplinger, Julie (Author) / Franklin, Janet (Thesis advisor) / Collins, Scott L. (Thesis advisor) / Anderies, John M (Committee member) / Childers, Daniel L. (Committee member) / York, Abigail (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2015
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Climate and environmental forcing are widely accepted to be important drivers of evolutionary and ecological change in mammal communities over geologic time scales. This paradigm has been particularly influential in studies of the eastern African late Cenozoic fossil record, in which aridification, increasing seasonality, and C4 grassland expansion are seen

Climate and environmental forcing are widely accepted to be important drivers of evolutionary and ecological change in mammal communities over geologic time scales. This paradigm has been particularly influential in studies of the eastern African late Cenozoic fossil record, in which aridification, increasing seasonality, and C4 grassland expansion are seen as having shaped the major patterns of human and faunal evolution. Despite the ubiquity of studies linking climate and environmental forcing to evolutionary and ecological shifts in the mammalian fossil record, many central components of this paradigm remain untested or poorly developed. To fill this gap, this dissertation employs biogeographical and macroecological analyses of present-day African mammal communities as a lens for understanding how abiotic change may have shaped community turnover and structure in the eastern African Plio-Pleistocene. Three dissertation papers address: 1) the role of ecological niche breadth in shaping divergent patterns of macroevolutionary turnover across clades; 2) the effect of climatic and environmental gradients on community assembly; 3) the relative influence of paleo- versus present-day climates in structuring contemporary patterns of community diversity. Results of these papers call into question many tenets of current theory, particularly: 1) that niche breadth differences (and, by extension, their influence on allopatric speciation) are important drivers of macroevolution, 2) that climate is more important than biotic interactions in community assembly, and 3) that communities today are in equilibrium with present-day climates. These findings highlight the need to critically reevaluate the role and scale-dependence of climate in mammal evolution and community ecology and to carefully consider potential time lags and disequilibrium dynamics in the fossil record.
ContributorsRowan, John (Author) / Reed, Kaye E (Thesis advisor) / Campisano, Christopher J (Committee member) / Franklin, Janet (Committee member) / Marean, Curtis W (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2018
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Description
As threats to Earth's biodiversity continue to evolve, an effective methodology to predict such threats is crucial to ensure the survival of living species. Organizations like the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) monitor the Earth's environmental networks to preserve the sanctity of terrestrial and marine life. The IUCN

As threats to Earth's biodiversity continue to evolve, an effective methodology to predict such threats is crucial to ensure the survival of living species. Organizations like the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) monitor the Earth's environmental networks to preserve the sanctity of terrestrial and marine life. The IUCN Red List of Threatened Species informs the conservation activities of governments as a world standard of species' risks of extinction. However, the IUCN's current methodology is, in some ways, inefficient given the immense volume of Earth's species and the laboriousness of its species' risk classification process. IUCN assessors can take years to classify a species' extinction risk, even as that species continues to decline. Therefore, to supplement the IUCN's classification process and thus bolster conservationist efforts for threatened species, a Random Forest model was constructed, trained on a group of fish species previously classified by the IUCN Red List. This Random Forest model both validates the IUCN Red List's classification method and offers a highly efficient, supplemental classification method for species' extinction risk. In addition, this Random Forest model is applicable to species with deficient data, which the IUCN Red List is otherwise unable to classify, thus engendering conservationist efforts for previously obscure species. Although this Random Forest model is built specifically for the trained fish species (Sparidae), the methodology can and should be extended to additional species.
ContributorsWoodyard, Megan (Author) / Broatch, Jennifer (Thesis director) / Polidoro, Beth (Committee member) / Mancenido, Michelle (Committee member) / School of Humanities, Arts, and Cultural Studies (Contributor) / School of Mathematical and Natural Sciences (Contributor) / College of Integrative Sciences and Arts (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2018-05
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Description
Urban riparian corridors have the capacity to maintain high levels of abundance and biodiversity. Additionally, urban rivers also offer environmental amenities and can be catalysts for social and economic revitalization in human communities. Despite its importance for both humans and wildlife, blue space in cities used by waterbirds has received

Urban riparian corridors have the capacity to maintain high levels of abundance and biodiversity. Additionally, urban rivers also offer environmental amenities and can be catalysts for social and economic revitalization in human communities. Despite its importance for both humans and wildlife, blue space in cities used by waterbirds has received relatively little focus in urban bird studies. My principal objective was to determine how urbanization and water availability affect waterbird biodiversity in an arid city. I surveyed 36 transects stratified across a gradient of urbanization and water availability along the Salt River, a LTER long-term study system located in Phoenix, Arizona. Water physiognomy (shape and size) was the largest factor in shaping the bird community. Connectivity was an important element for waterbird diversity, but not abundance. Urbanization had guild-specific effects on abundance but was not important for waterbird diversity. Habitat-level environmental characteristics were more important than land use on waterbird abundance, as well as diversity. Diving and fish-eating birds were positively associated with large open bodies of water, whereas dabbling ducks, wading birds, and marsh species favored areas with large amounts of shoreline and emergent vegetation. My study supports that Phoenix blue space offers an important subsidy to migrating waterbird communities; while alternative habitat is not a replacement, it is important to consider as part of the larger conservation picture as traditional wetlands decline. Additionally, arid cities have the potential to support high levels of waterbird biodiversity, heterogeneous land use matrix can be advantageous in supporting regional diversity, and waterbirds are tolerant of urbanization if proper resources are provided via the habitat. The implications of this study are particularly relevant to urban planning in arid cities; Phoenix alone contains over 1,400 bodies of water, offering the opportunity to design and improve urban blue space to optimize potential habitat while providing public amenities.
ContributorsBurnette, Riley (Author) / Bateman, Heather (Thesis advisor) / Franklin, Janet (Committee member) / Allen, Daniel (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2016
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Functional traits research has improved our understanding of how plants respond to their environments, identifying key trade-offs among traits. These studies primarily rely on correlative methods to infer trade-offs and often overlook traits that are difficult to measure (e.g., root traits, tissue senescence rates), limiting their predictive ability under novel

Functional traits research has improved our understanding of how plants respond to their environments, identifying key trade-offs among traits. These studies primarily rely on correlative methods to infer trade-offs and often overlook traits that are difficult to measure (e.g., root traits, tissue senescence rates), limiting their predictive ability under novel conditions. I aimed to address these limitations and develop a better understanding of the trait space occupied by trees by integrating data and process models, spanning leaves to whole-trees, via modern statistical and computational methods. My first research chapter (Chapter 2) simultaneously fits a photosynthesis model to measurements of fluorescence and photosynthetic response curves, improving estimates of mesophyll conductance (gm) and other photosynthetic traits. I assessed how gm varies across environmental gradients and relates to other photosynthetic traits for 4 woody species in Arizona. I found that gm was lower at high aridity sites, varied little within a site, and is an important trait for obtaining accurate estimates of photosynthesis and related traits under dry conditions. Chapter 3 evaluates the importance of functional traits for whole-tree performance by fitting an individual-based model of tree growth and mortality to millions of measurements of tree heights and diameters to assess the theoretical trait space (TTS) of “healthy” North American trees. The TTS contained complicated, multi-variate structure indicative of potential trade-offs leading to successful growth. In Chapter 4, I applied an environmental filter (light stress) to the TTS, leading to simulated stand-level mortality rates up to 50%. Tree-level mortality was explained by 6 of the 32 traits explored, with the most important being radiation-use efficiency. The multidimentional space comprising these 6 traits differed in volume and location between trees that survived and died, indicating that selective mortality alters the TTS.
ContributorsFell, Michael (Author) / Ogle, Kiona (Thesis advisor) / Barber, Jarrett (Committee member) / Hultine, Kevin (Committee member) / Franklin, Janet (Committee member) / Day, Thomas (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2017
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As the world’s population exponentially grows, more food production is required. This increasing food production currently has led to the un-sustainable production of chemical fertilizers and resultant overuse. A more sustainable option to enhance food production could be the use of fertilizer derived from food waste. To address this, we

As the world’s population exponentially grows, more food production is required. This increasing food production currently has led to the un-sustainable production of chemical fertilizers and resultant overuse. A more sustainable option to enhance food production could be the use of fertilizer derived from food waste. To address this, we investigated the possibility of utilizing a fertilizer derived from food waste to grow hydroponic vegetables. Arugula (Eruca sativa) ‘Slow Bolt’ and lettuce (Lactuca sativa) ‘Cherokee’ and ‘Rex’ were cultivated using indoor deep-flow hydroponic systems at 23 ºC under a photosynthetic photon flux density of 170 µmol∙m−2∙s−1 with an 18-hour photoperiod. Plant nutrient solutions were provided by food waste fertilizer or commercial 15:5:20 NPK fertilizer at the identical electrical conductivity (EC) of 2.3 mS·cm–1. At the EC of 2.3 mS·cm–1, chemical fertilizer contained 150 ppm N, 50 ppm P, and 200 ppm K, while food waste fertilizer had 60 ppm N, 26 ppm P, and 119 ppm K. Four weeks after the nutrient treatments were implemented, compared to plants grown with chemical fertilizer, lettuce ‘Rex’ grown with food waste fertilizer had four less leaves, 27.1% shorter leaves, 68.2% and 23.1% less shoot and root fresh weight, respectively. Lettuce ‘Cherokee’ and arugula grown with food waste fertilizer followed a similar trend with fresh shoot weights that were 80.1% and 95.6% less compared to the chemical fertilizer, respectively. In general, the magnitude of reduction in the plant growth was greatest in arugula. These results suggest that both fertilizers were able to successfully grow lettuce and arugula, although the reduced plant growth with the food waste fertilizer in our study is likely from a lower concentration of nutrients when we considered EC as an indicator of nutrient concentration equivalency of the two fertilizer types.

ContributorsCherry, Hannah Nichole (Author) / Park, Yujin (Thesis director) / Penton, Ryan (Committee member) / Chen, Zhihao (Committee member) / Environmental and Resource Management (Contributor, Contributor) / College of Integrative Sciences and Arts (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2021-05
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The United States’ War on Drugs declared in 1971 by President Richard Nixon and revamped by President Reagan in the 1980s has been an objectively failed initiative with origins based in racism and oppression. After exploring the repercussions of this endeavor for societies and individuals around the world, global researchers

The United States’ War on Drugs declared in 1971 by President Richard Nixon and revamped by President Reagan in the 1980s has been an objectively failed initiative with origins based in racism and oppression. After exploring the repercussions of this endeavor for societies and individuals around the world, global researchers and policymakers have declared that the policies and institutions created to fight the battle have left devastation in their wake. Despite high economic and social costs, missed opportunities in public health and criminal justice sectors, and increasing limits on our personal freedoms, all the measures taken to eradicate drug abuse and trafficking have been unsuccessful. Not only that, but militarized police tactics, mass incarceration, and harsh penalties that stifle opportunities for rehabilitation, growth, and change disproportionately harm poor and minority communities. <br/>Because reform in U.S. drug policy is badly needed, the goals of America’s longest war need to be reevaluated, implications of the initiative reexamined, and alternative strategies reconsidered. Solutions must be propagated from a diverse spectrum of contributors and holistic understanding through scientific research, empirical evidence, innovation, public health, social wellbeing, and measurable outcomes. But before we can know where we should be headed, we need to appreciate how we got to where we are. This preliminary expository investigation will explore and outline the history of drug use and prohibition in the United States before the War on Drugs was officially declared. Through an examination of the different patterns of substance use, evolving civil tolerance of users, racially-charged anti-drug misinformation/propaganda campaigns, and increasingly restrictive drug control policies, a foundation for developing solutions and strengths-based strategies for drug reform will emerge.

ContributorsSherman, Brooke (Author) / Jimenez-Arista, Laura (Thesis director) / Mitchell, Ojmarrh (Committee member) / College of Integrative Sciences and Arts (Contributor) / Department of Psychology (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2021-05
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Description
The Salt River wild horses are a historic population of unbranded, unclaimed, wild and free-roaming horses, that were born in the wild and merit protection within our National Forest and protection of the Wild Horse and Burro act of 1970. Terms like undomesticated or feral are thrown around in place

The Salt River wild horses are a historic population of unbranded, unclaimed, wild and free-roaming horses, that were born in the wild and merit protection within our National Forest and protection of the Wild Horse and Burro act of 1970. Terms like undomesticated or feral are thrown around in place of “wild”. The past couple of decades or so, there has been an ongoing debate about the current state of the horses on the range. The horses that are along the Salt River, are considered to be state protected and not federally protected, which has sparked a vast discussion on the social, ethical and moral aspects. There has been an overabundance of horses on the range and are causing potential issues to the environment and other farmland. According to the BLM, wild horse and burro populations have a demonstrated ability to grow at 18-20 percent per year. With the widespread and overabundance that is occurring with the horses and burros, it has been said to have a great ecological cost on the rangeland ecosystem by overgrazing native plants, exacerbating invasive establishment and out-competing other ungulates like cattle. Overabundant free-roaming horse and burro populations have large and growing economic and ecological costs for the American public. Without effective management actions, horse and burro populations will double within the next 4-5 years. In this project, with the help of Dr. Julie Murphree, the Salt River Horse Management group and Arizona’s State Liaison for the Department of Agriculture, I conducted various ride-a-longs and conducted my own literature study to further solidify the knowledge I gained when navigating through the Salt River Wild Horse Management group. I can use their data as well as my own observations in the field to catalog their behaviors and look for any signs that would give reason to why this method of population control may or may not be used. I was able to note the horses in their “natural state” which would give me the opportunity to see any behavior changes in various population groups (or otherwise known as Bands). The main objective of this paper is to understand PZP as a population control tool and the effect it has on the Salt River Horses in Arizona.
ContributorsRendon, Chyna (Author) / Murphree, Julie (Thesis director) / Saul, Steven (Committee member) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor) / College of Integrative Sciences and Arts (Contributor)
Created2022-05