Matching Items (13)
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- All Subjects: Mathematical Modeling
- Creators: Kostelich, Eric
- Creators: Platte, Rodrigo
Description
Predicting resistant prostate cancer is critical for lowering medical costs and improving the quality of life of advanced prostate cancer patients. I formulate, compare, and analyze two mathematical models that aim to forecast future levels of prostate-specific antigen (PSA). I accomplish these tasks by employing clinical data of locally advanced prostate cancer patients undergoing androgen deprivation therapy (ADT). I demonstrate that the inverse problem of parameter estimation might be too complicated and simply relying on data fitting can give incorrect conclusions, since there is a large error in parameter values estimated and parameters might be unidentifiable. I provide confidence intervals to give estimate forecasts using data assimilation via an ensemble Kalman Filter. Using the ensemble Kalman Filter, I perform dual estimation of parameters and state variables to test the prediction accuracy of the models. Finally, I present a novel model with time delay and a delay-dependent parameter. I provide a geometric stability result to study the behavior of this model and show that the inclusion of time delay may improve the accuracy of predictions. Also, I demonstrate with clinical data that the inclusion of the delay-dependent parameter facilitates the identification and estimation of parameters.
ContributorsBaez, Javier (Author) / Kuang, Yang (Thesis advisor) / Kostelich, Eric (Committee member) / Crook, Sharon (Committee member) / Gardner, Carl (Committee member) / Nagy, John (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2017
Description
With the increasing penetration of converter interfaced renewable generation into power systems, the structure and behavior of the power system is changing, catalyzing alterations and enhancements in modeling and simulation methods.
This work puts forth a Hybrid Electromagnetic Transient-Transient Stability simulation method implemented using MATLAB and Simulink, to study power electronic based power systems. Hybrid Simulation enables detailed, accurate modeling, along with fast, efficient simulation, on account of the Electromagnetic Transient (EMT) and Transient Stability (TS) simulations respectively. A critical component of hybrid simulation is the interaction between the EMT and TS simulators, established through a well-defined interface technique, which has been explored in detail.
This research focuses on the boundary conditions and interaction between the two simulation models for optimum accuracy and computational efficiency.
A case study has been carried out employing the proposed hybrid simulation method. The test case used is the IEEE 9-bus system, modified to integrate it with a solar PV plant. The validation of the hybrid model with the benchmark full EMT model, along with the analysis of the accuracy and efficiency, has been performed. The steady-state and transient analysis results demonstrate that the performance of the hybrid simulation method is competent. The hybrid simulation technique suitably captures accuracy of EMT simulation and efficiency of TS simulation, therefore adequately representing the behavior of power systems with high penetration of converter interfaced generation.
This work puts forth a Hybrid Electromagnetic Transient-Transient Stability simulation method implemented using MATLAB and Simulink, to study power electronic based power systems. Hybrid Simulation enables detailed, accurate modeling, along with fast, efficient simulation, on account of the Electromagnetic Transient (EMT) and Transient Stability (TS) simulations respectively. A critical component of hybrid simulation is the interaction between the EMT and TS simulators, established through a well-defined interface technique, which has been explored in detail.
This research focuses on the boundary conditions and interaction between the two simulation models for optimum accuracy and computational efficiency.
A case study has been carried out employing the proposed hybrid simulation method. The test case used is the IEEE 9-bus system, modified to integrate it with a solar PV plant. The validation of the hybrid model with the benchmark full EMT model, along with the analysis of the accuracy and efficiency, has been performed. The steady-state and transient analysis results demonstrate that the performance of the hybrid simulation method is competent. The hybrid simulation technique suitably captures accuracy of EMT simulation and efficiency of TS simulation, therefore adequately representing the behavior of power systems with high penetration of converter interfaced generation.
ContributorsAthaide, Denise Maria Christine (Author) / Qin, Jiangchao (Thesis advisor) / Ayyanar, Raja (Committee member) / Wu, Meng (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2018
Description
Glioblastoma multiforme (GBM) is a malignant, aggressive and infiltrative cancer of the central nervous system with a median survival of 14.6 months with standard care. Diagnosis of GBM is made using medical imaging such as magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) or computed tomography (CT). Treatment is informed by medical images and includes chemotherapy, radiation therapy, and surgical removal if the tumor is surgically accessible. Treatment seldom results in a significant increase in longevity, partly due to the lack of precise information regarding tumor size and location. This lack of information arises from the physical limitations of MR and CT imaging coupled with the diffusive nature of glioblastoma tumors. GBM tumor cells can migrate far beyond the visible boundaries of the tumor and will result in a recurring tumor if not killed or removed. Since medical images are the only readily available information about the tumor, we aim to improve mathematical models of tumor growth to better estimate the missing information. Particularly, we investigate the effect of random variation in tumor cell behavior (anisotropy) using stochastic parameterizations of an established proliferation-diffusion model of tumor growth. To evaluate the performance of our mathematical model, we use MR images from an animal model consisting of Murine GL261 tumors implanted in immunocompetent mice, which provides consistency in tumor initiation and location, immune response, genetic variation, and treatment. Compared to non-stochastic simulations, stochastic simulations showed improved volume accuracy when proliferation variability was high, but diffusion variability was found to only marginally affect tumor volume estimates. Neither proliferation nor diffusion variability significantly affected the spatial distribution accuracy of the simulations. While certain cases of stochastic parameterizations improved volume accuracy, they failed to significantly improve simulation accuracy overall. Both the non-stochastic and stochastic simulations failed to achieve over 75% spatial distribution accuracy, suggesting that the underlying structure of the model fails to capture one or more biological processes that affect tumor growth. Two biological features that are candidates for further investigation are angiogenesis and anisotropy resulting from differences between white and gray matter. Time-dependent proliferation and diffusion terms could be introduced to model angiogenesis, and diffusion weighed imaging (DTI) could be used to differentiate between white and gray matter, which might allow for improved estimates brain anisotropy.
ContributorsAnderies, Barrett James (Author) / Kostelich, Eric (Thesis director) / Kuang, Yang (Committee member) / Stepien, Tracy (Committee member) / Harrington Bioengineering Program (Contributor) / School of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2016-05
Description
Chebfun is a collection of algorithms and an open-source software system in object-oriented Matlab that extends familiar powerful methods of numerical computation involving numbers to continuous or piecewise-continuous functions. The success of this strategy is based on the mathematical fact that smooth functions can be represented very efficiently by polynomial interpolation at Chebyshev points or by trigonometric interpolation at equispaced points for periodic functions. More recently, the system has been extended to handle bivariate functions and vector fields. These two new classes of objects are called Chebfun2 and Chebfun2v, respectively. We will show that Chebfun2 and Chebfun2v, and can be used to accurately and efficiently perform various computations on parametric surfaces in two or three dimensions, including path trajectories and mean and Gaussian curvatures. More advanced surface computations such as mean curvature flows are also explored. This is also the first work to use the newly implemented trigonometric representation, namely Trigfun, for computations on surfaces.
ContributorsPage-Bottorff, Courtney Michelle (Author) / Platte, Rodrigo (Thesis director) / Kostelich, Eric (Committee member) / School of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences (Contributor) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor)
Created2016-05
Description
Using object-oriented programming in MATLAB, a collection of functions, named Fourfun, has been created to allow quick and accurate approximations of periodic functions with Fourier expansions. To increase efficiency and reduce the number of computations of the Fourier transform, Fourfun automatically determines the number of nodes necessary for representations that are accurate to close to machine precision. Common MATLAB functions have been overloaded to keep the syntax of the Fourfun class as consistent as possible with the general MATLAB syntax. We show that the system can be used to efficiently solve several differential equations. Comparisons with Chebfun, a similar system based on Chebyshev polynomial approximations, are provided.
ContributorsMcleod, Kristyn Noelle (Author) / Platte, Rodrigo (Thesis director) / Gelb, Anne (Committee member) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor) / School of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences (Contributor) / School of International Letters and Cultures (Contributor)
Created2014-05
Description
Glioblastoma Multiforme (GBM) is an aggressive and deadly form of brain cancer with a median survival time of about a year with treatment. Due to the aggressive nature of these tumors and the tendency of gliomas to follow white matter tracks in the brain, each tumor mass has a unique growth pattern. Consequently it is difficult for neurosurgeons to anticipate where the tumor will spread in the brain, making treatment planning difficult. Archival patient data including MRI scans depicting the progress of tumors have been helpful in developing a model to predict Glioblastoma proliferation, but limited scans per patient make the tumor growth rate difficult to determine. Furthermore, patient treatment between scan points can significantly compound the challenge of accurately predicting the tumor growth. A partnership with Barrow Neurological Institute has allowed murine studies to be conducted in order to closely observe tumor growth and potentially improve the current model to more closely resemble intermittent stages of GBM growth without treatment effects.
ContributorsSnyder, Lena Haley (Author) / Kostelich, Eric (Thesis director) / Frakes, David (Committee member) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor) / School of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences (Contributor) / Harrington Bioengineering Program (Contributor)
Created2014-05
Description
Mortality of 1918 influenza virus was high, partly due to bacteria coinfections. We characterize pandemic mortality in Arizona, which had high prevalence of tuberculosis. We applied regressions to over 35,000 data points to estimate the basic reproduction number and excess mortality. Age-specific mortality curves show elevated mortality for all age groups, especially the young, and senior sparing effects. The low value for reproduction number indicates that transmissibility was moderately low.
ContributorsJenner, Melinda Eva (Author) / Chowell-Puente, Gerardo (Thesis director) / Kostelich, Eric (Committee member) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor) / School of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences (Contributor) / School of Life Sciences (Contributor)
Created2015-05
Description
The increased number of novel pathogens that potentially threaten the human population has motivated the development of mathematical and computational modeling approaches for forecasting epidemic impact and understanding key environmental characteristics that influence the spread of diseases. Yet, in the case that substantial uncertainty surrounds the transmission process during a rapidly developing infectious disease outbreak, complex mechanistic models may be too difficult to be calibrated quick enough for policy makers to make informed decisions. Simple phenomenological models that rely on a small number of parameters can provide an initial platform for assessing the epidemic trajectory, estimating the reproduction number and quantifying the disease burden from the early epidemic phase.
Chapter 1 provides background information and motivation for infectious disease forecasting and outlines the rest of the thesis.
In chapter 2, logistic patch models are used to assess and forecast the 2013-2015 West Africa Zaire ebolavirus epidemic. In particular, this chapter is concerned with comparing and contrasting the effects that spatial heterogeneity has on the forecasting performance of the cumulative infected case counts reported during the epidemic.
In chapter 3, two simple phenomenological models inspired from population biology are used to assess the Research and Policy for Infectious Disease Dynamics (RAPIDD) Ebola Challenge; a simulated epidemic that generated 4 infectious disease scenarios. Because of the nature of the synthetically generated data, model predictions are compared to exact epidemiological quantities used in the simulation.
In chapter 4, these models are applied to the 1904 Plague epidemic that occurred in Bombay. This chapter provides evidence that these simple models may be applicable to infectious diseases no matter the disease transmission mechanism.
Chapter 5, uses the patch models from chapter 2 to explore how migration in the 1904 Plague epidemic changes the final epidemic size.
The final chapter is an interdisciplinary project concerning within-host dynamics of cereal yellow dwarf virus-RPV, a plant pathogen from a virus group that infects over 150 grass species. Motivated by environmental nutrient enrichment due to anthropological activities, mathematical models are employed to investigate the relevance of resource competition to pathogen and host dynamics.
Chapter 1 provides background information and motivation for infectious disease forecasting and outlines the rest of the thesis.
In chapter 2, logistic patch models are used to assess and forecast the 2013-2015 West Africa Zaire ebolavirus epidemic. In particular, this chapter is concerned with comparing and contrasting the effects that spatial heterogeneity has on the forecasting performance of the cumulative infected case counts reported during the epidemic.
In chapter 3, two simple phenomenological models inspired from population biology are used to assess the Research and Policy for Infectious Disease Dynamics (RAPIDD) Ebola Challenge; a simulated epidemic that generated 4 infectious disease scenarios. Because of the nature of the synthetically generated data, model predictions are compared to exact epidemiological quantities used in the simulation.
In chapter 4, these models are applied to the 1904 Plague epidemic that occurred in Bombay. This chapter provides evidence that these simple models may be applicable to infectious diseases no matter the disease transmission mechanism.
Chapter 5, uses the patch models from chapter 2 to explore how migration in the 1904 Plague epidemic changes the final epidemic size.
The final chapter is an interdisciplinary project concerning within-host dynamics of cereal yellow dwarf virus-RPV, a plant pathogen from a virus group that infects over 150 grass species. Motivated by environmental nutrient enrichment due to anthropological activities, mathematical models are employed to investigate the relevance of resource competition to pathogen and host dynamics.
ContributorsPell, Bruce (Author) / Kuang, Yang (Thesis advisor) / Chowell-Puente, Gerardo (Committee member) / Nagy, John (Committee member) / Kostelich, Eric (Committee member) / Gardner, Carl (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2016
Description
Dividing the plane in half leaves every border point of one region a border point of both regions. Can we divide up the plane into three or more regions such that any point on the boundary of at least one region is on the border of all the regions? In fact, it is possible to design a dynamical system for which the basins of attractions have this Wada property. In certain circumstances, both the Hénon map, a simple system, and the forced damped pendulum, a physical model, produce Wada basins.
ContributorsWhitehurst, Ryan David (Author) / Kostelich, Eric (Thesis director) / Jones, Donald (Committee member) / Armbruster, Dieter (Committee member) / Barrett, The Honors College (Contributor) / School of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences (Contributor) / Department of Chemistry and Biochemistry (Contributor)
Created2013-05
DescriptionUnderstanding the evolution of opinions is a delicate task as the dynamics of how one changes their opinion based on their interactions with others are unclear.
ContributorsWeber, Dylan (Author) / Motsch, Sebastien (Thesis advisor) / Lanchier, Nicolas (Committee member) / Platte, Rodrigo (Committee member) / Armbruster, Dieter (Committee member) / Fricks, John (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Created2021